Michigan Opens the Season as Underdogs
2.5 pt dogs on the road to open the season. I'm not nearly that worried for whatever reason. I don't see Minnesota repeating last years success, and feel like Michigan is going to surprise it's fan base.
Now let's go win that Little Brown Jug!
October 15th, 2020 at 2:02 PM ^
Should be able to run on them. I hope that wears them down and that Michigan’s DL can get to Morgan enough to offset a sketchy secondary.
October 15th, 2020 at 2:35 PM ^
Agreed on this one. Pound the ball on the ground and control the clock. Defensively take away Bateman as best you can and make someone else beat you. Key to this game IMO is time of possession. If you can keep Bateman and their backs off the field, Michigan will have the advantage
October 15th, 2020 at 2:52 PM ^
Hard to count on ToP as meaningful in today’s CFB world. Teams are scoring TDs in five plays. Did you watch ‘Bama vs Ole Miss?
We need sacks, turnovers, pressure on the QB, and some good safety play to limit them to 24 or less, and then we need to score.
Scoring lots of points is how you win in today’s CFB world when you are playing a team with a good offense. Not ToP.
My guess is we lose if we score less than 25.
October 15th, 2020 at 2:56 PM ^
Do people on this blog watch other teams play football?
Holding on to this TOP nonsense is part of why we're mediocre.
October 15th, 2020 at 3:07 PM ^
It’s not the most important indicator of success but knowing the circumstances it’d be useful when you consider the strengths the team *should* have this fall. Great backs and run blocking is easier for a new offensive line. This will also open some play action and easy reads for our young QB.
Even if Minnesota scores fast (which they will), keeping your defense well rested will only help them stay fresh.
October 15th, 2020 at 3:28 PM ^
It's not an important indicator of success what-so-ever, I would actually bet the correlation is more likely to be negative. The evidence is overwhelming that worrying about TOP and trying to win games with your defense is wildly ineffective. You are correct that those probably are our strengths but that is precisely part of the problem, we're purposely making things more difficult on ourselves.
October 15th, 2020 at 4:29 PM ^
I think you are missing my point. The context is what matters. I am not suggesting we should go back to I-form, Lloyd-ball as our fundamental offensive identity.
Looking at Minnesota's best chance to win, it includes big plays in the passing game and Bateman et al. making big plays against our shaky secondary. How do you marginalize or reduce the opportunities for them to successfully do that? You keep them off the field by keeping the clock running and converting first downs and reducing their possessions. There are more modern ways to achieve that than three yards in a cloud of dust - RPO's, screen game, zone reads, etc...
To say time of possession simply does not matter at all is a ham handed conclusion based on what the elite offenses in college football can do, and then applying it to the rest of the pack. I would agree, time of possession will not be a deciding factor against Ohio State, or Alabama or Oklahoma. Minnesota - while good - is decidedly not those offenses.
Breaking in a brand new starting QB on the road and asking him to sling it around the yard 50 times in an attempt to put up 50+ points on offense against Minnesota does not sound like a recipe for success, that sounds like turnovers to me.
October 15th, 2020 at 4:52 PM ^
And I think you're missing my point, which is this mentality has to go if we are going to stop being mediocre. There is always some excuse for why this year isn't the year we start trying to compete with the big dogs.
"Looking at Minnesota's best chance to win, it includes big plays in the passing game"
That's the best way to win a game, period. The longer we keep trying to avoid that the longer we stay mired in mediocrity. Instead of being scared of what the other team is going to do, how about we dictate how the game is going to be played?
I think Michigan should be striving to be part of the elite, not the best of the rest, which is going to require scoring points not killing clock.
October 15th, 2020 at 6:35 PM ^
You’re not really making a point, you’re just refuting mine and saying Michigan should modernize their offense (which they are in the process in doing).
Other than, Michigan should have an elite passing offense - which we have no indication that we do - how should Michigan game plan to beat Minnesota?
October 15th, 2020 at 7:37 PM ^
The general approach should be to score as much as possible, play D as well as you can, and when you reach 37 points look around and decide if you need to keep scoring. The ball control offense should stay on the shelf at least until then.
The fundamental difference you're arguing here is points per possession vs. minutes per possession. Football in the past 20 years has taught us that maximizing points per possession is correct, at least until you've built an insurmountable lead.
Going even further, you could argue that playing looser on defense and letting your opponent bleed their way down the field is actually better than trying to stop every individual play for no gain. Putting the opponent offense in a position to execute repeatedly with some reasonable friction while putting our own defense in a position to look for turnovers is arguably a better way to steal possessions. And as we learned from basketball under Beilein, creating a possession imbalance in our favor is a sure way to win a lot of games.
October 15th, 2020 at 7:08 PM ^
Literally the only time 'controlling TOP' matters anymore is being able to run the clock out late in a game. Or if you're a run-only offense that's completely outclassed athletically like Army/Navy where minimizing possessions is the only way to stay competitive.
Put it this way - if Michigan is worried about controlling the number of possessions in the game, they're going to lose, and probably lose badly. The object of offense should be to score points, no matter how fast you do it. That doesn't mean throw the ball a bunch if it's ineffective, but you don't need to run the ball for 3-4 yards a pop because you're worried that your defense might get tired. Force Minnesota to keep up with our offense, not the other way around. This isn't 1997 anymore - teams in the current era don't win many big games with defense.
October 15th, 2020 at 3:06 PM ^
I'm gonna say that if we don't score 34, we're probably not going to win. As you said, today's game is about scoring points. And scoring points is something Minny is going to do with the offense they have. Can probably get away with scoring 25 when playing Rutger, Illinois, et all, but not with high octane things like Minnesota...
"Pound the ball on the ground and control the clock."
This is a reference to the football we knew and loved 20 years ago.
October 15th, 2020 at 4:40 PM ^
My mistake, it definitely reads that way. What I am trying to say is limit the amount of possessions that Minnesota has on offense. I don't think Michigan wants any part of giving Minnesota's passing game 10 offensive possessions.
Not suggesting we line up in the I-Form and run 40 dive plays between the tackles. But I think our chances of winning this one are better if they can keep the clock running and keep their offense off the field. However you can achieve that in modern college football, seems like the right move as opposed to asking Milton to go out there and throw for 350+ and 4 TD's in his first game.
I do like Milton, I think he'll be good, and maybe I am being too skeptical of his talent. But I think that is asking a lot of a guy in his first start who we know has struggled with accuracy and decision making early in his career.
October 16th, 2020 at 12:10 AM ^
Please tell us how you actually propose to do this. Like plays. I’ll wait.
October 16th, 2020 at 8:14 AM ^
“Limit the amount of possessions MN has on offense.” No. Doesn’t work unless you are talking about defensive or special teams takeaways.
More effective: build a game plan where you are scoring 40+ points and figure out ways to get stops or takeaways.
October 15th, 2020 at 4:12 PM ^
ToP, really. Oregon under Chip Kelly never got this memo and worked out o.k for them. Point is to SCORE more points than your opposition, pleasezzz, the 1970's called and they want their offensive game plan back!
October 15th, 2020 at 4:20 PM ^
ToP shouldn't be the focus or even a consideration but establishing success on the ground probably should be. And if they do that, they'll probably win ToP so it'll be somewhat of an indicator of success.
Where ToP gets dangerous is when coaches think it's actual strategy to run clock and keep the other team off the field sometimes at the expense of giving themselves the best chance to score (either because they're not playing with tempo or are running too much). Definitely don't want Michigan to play slow just to shorten the game. They're a better team and want more possessions. So play fast, but running is probably going to be effective so also do that enough.
October 15th, 2020 at 3:05 PM ^
Completely disagree here. Minnesota will get theirs, especially considering the Morgan / Bateman tandem. We will need to score in order to keep up. I'm not saying Minnesota will score at will, but they will score, and they will be able to do it quickly through the air. We will probably need to get to the mid-30s to have a shot here.
October 15th, 2020 at 3:18 PM ^
If Michigan doesn’t come out and show tempo, this will be a long season.
October 15th, 2020 at 5:33 PM ^
Milton and CB’s play competently and we win. The other position groups will be just fine.
October 15th, 2020 at 2:03 PM ^
Good. We should be.
October 15th, 2020 at 3:18 PM ^
I'm going to choose to read that in Yoda's voice. I'm an optimist.
October 15th, 2020 at 2:03 PM ^
To be expected as we start a new qb, 4/5 of the line, lost WRs, and don't do well on the road against decent teams.
Not a shocker, just hoping we can prove them wrong.
October 15th, 2020 at 2:45 PM ^
If this was game 6, UM would roll the Gophers. We have much more talent, yet as we all know...it is unproven.
October 15th, 2020 at 6:42 PM ^
I think the opposite...there is very little tape on Michigan’s offensive skill players. It is a little easier for Michigan to prepare for Minnesota, whereas even the fan base let alone the opposite team have much idea how the Wolverines are going to look on offense.
October 15th, 2020 at 2:04 PM ^
Acquire the jug
October 15th, 2020 at 2:58 PM ^
Shouldn't it be retain the jug?
October 15th, 2020 at 3:28 PM ^
That'd be funny if the jug was just a Gatorade cooler
October 15th, 2020 at 3:34 PM ^
Covid protocols, the jug will only be there virtually.
Zoom the Jug!
October 15th, 2020 at 2:04 PM ^
Should be able to run all over their defense
October 15th, 2020 at 2:04 PM ^
You're not wrong. Confidence over cockiness.
October 15th, 2020 at 2:06 PM ^
2.5 spread as a home team is essentially a toss up. Though without home fans I don't know if the calculus changes at all.
Going to have to find a way to slow down Bateman and the passing game generally. Hopefully Hutchinson and Paye get good pressure and the DTs hold up against Minnesota's returning (and large) OL.
Time to put up or shut up on the Milton hype and seeing "speed in space" after a full year of coordinating from Gattis and getting the running game with Warinner on the same page. Can't be a slow and rickety start like last season was.
October 15th, 2020 at 3:03 PM ^
yes. time for coaches to earn paychecks and players to earn scholarships so i can give a shit again. im tired of not having a reason to care by 3 weeks into season
October 15th, 2020 at 2:06 PM ^
Seeing a picture of Denard instantly improved my day.
I'm glad YouTube is around because otherwise I would never be able to properly describe to my son what it was like watching that kid run around.
October 15th, 2020 at 2:12 PM ^
One of my favorite, and cheesy, Denard videos. Think twice about sharing this one.
October 15th, 2020 at 2:07 PM ^
Not surprising coming off an 11 win season where they return their two biggest offensive weapons and a solid O-Line.
We should be able to pummel their defense and our front 7 should do enough to slow their offense.
Feels like a good bet for the good guys....but lots of inexperience on offense justifies the spread.
October 15th, 2020 at 2:11 PM ^
If we can get them off of the field, we will win with our rushing attack. If Bateman turns our secondary into the 2010 Gerg unit, we will lose.
October 15th, 2020 at 2:11 PM ^
- Pretty good Minny team.
- Brand new QB with no out of conference warm up games
- On the road.
I think that's a fair spread.
October 15th, 2020 at 2:15 PM ^
I love big jugs
October 15th, 2020 at 2:50 PM ^
Especially on a slender frame.
October 15th, 2020 at 3:05 PM ^
the proportion of jugs to non-jugs is infinitely important.
October 15th, 2020 at 3:34 PM ^
Username checks out.
October 15th, 2020 at 10:17 PM ^
And I cannot lie
October 15th, 2020 at 2:19 PM ^
Seems realistic. I expect the Os to be ahead of the Ds on both sides. Lots of scoring.
October 15th, 2020 at 2:22 PM ^
They're giving them home field. Basically nobody knows.
October 15th, 2020 at 2:22 PM ^
cherish the dogs
October 15th, 2020 at 2:23 PM ^
Good. This way it will count as an upset of a ranked team on the road.
October 15th, 2020 at 2:38 PM ^
It only counts as a "big road win" if we lose.
October 15th, 2020 at 5:46 PM ^
Well start hearing “but Harbaugh doesn’t have a big road win at night in NOVEMBER. Is he on the the hot seat?”
October 15th, 2020 at 2:23 PM ^
On another topic:
Why did we try to medical St. Juste? Our biggest position of need is CB and we tried to medically retire him and he went and immediately started and played extremely well for Minnesota. He may end up getting drafted and we thought he was so bad off with his injury that he should never play football again??
That one will forever be a head scratcher.