Michigan opens at -4 against BYU

And yet we're favored to beat them by 4 points. I guess that means we'll be ranked when we beat them. Either that or early season polls are bullshit.

Michigan will win by a field goal. This line makes it very easy to bet BYU.

How often is Vegas wrong on the lines?

I watched a little bit of BYU's game last night and it looked like they had some pretty good skill players on offense. looked more explosive than ours, which isn't saying a ton. Thanks Hoke...

Especially after watching us yesterday on offense.  The passing game needs to show up next Saturday, cause BYU is going to try and limit our running game.  Sounds like the same strategy most teams have used against Michigan over the last number of years.  But, it's largely worked.  

consider BYU a 7 point better team even though they are listed as 4 point favorites.. However, since MIchigan is at home that is usually a 3 to 3 1/2 point advantage.

If Michigan is able to run the ball they will have a good chance to win this game. If not, stick a fork in them.

The first 3 or 4 weeks of college games are the toughest for the oddsmakers to set the lines. There are teams playing outside of conference, in some cases outside of the geographical area, and/or with no common opponents. Add in the calculus about returning starters, and how to evaluate the quality of replacements, and there is a lot of guesswork. While the books' goal is to get an equal amount bet on each side and they will adjust lines to do so, they occasionally get caught in a game where a large majority play one side and the line adjustment either isn't enough to balance it, or it allows some pros to "middle" the game: say Mich opens at -4 and money pours in on BYU to the point where they drop it to Mich -1 (this would be a huge move). In that case, some gamblers will play Utah +4 and then jump on Mich -1. If Mich wins by a FG, they win both ways.

It's rare but books occasionally will lose a lot of money on a game that they have miscaculated the odds on.

impact a team like BYU?  

Is it to our advantage that they might be a little deflated? Or is that merely wishful thinking?

but this is a pretty suprising line given what I've seen of both of these two teams.  Betters like what they see from Michigan more than I do thats for certain.

 

I'd need at least 6 to take Michigan with my money.

Well, it is essentially one point considering the home team gets three automatically for being the home team, at least I believe that is the process.

I'm starting to feel really good about the game.

My son and I were up close at the Night Game at the Rose Bowl last night. BYU frustrated UCLA not so much their Defense which did in reality fluster Chose Rosen, but BYUs offense which seemed to at will have the short pass open all night. Realistically UCLAs defense took a hit when one of their leading LBs was booted for what all saw as a fake leading with his helmet that just hit grass and no man. UCLAs d picked it up a bit in the 4th but it was the running game that won it for the Bruins, 296 yards running 219 by Paul Perkins, BYU can be run against and Michigan has a good enough O line and backs to take advantage of that maybe not as successful as UCLA but clearly enough to win if the D stops the short pass.

The game will not be that close.  UM 31 - BYU 14.  First, BYU is not that impressive.  We saw Neb's defense against Miami. it is not that good.  BYU was lucky in both wins and somewhat unlucky in the loss.  Could be easily 0-3.  Second, they have played three games in 3 different time zones.  They will be tired and are not as healthy as us.

Playing football games at 9:00 am PST screws you up. Many of these guys have to take a dump at kickoff, and it is all they are thinking about for 45 minutes- getting into halftime locker room without an accident.

if I were going to gamble on this game I think I would put money on BYU.  Not that I don't believe in Harbaugh, but I think Michigan's fate in this game really come down to Rudock.  If he plays well we win.  If he plays like he did against UNLV, egads.   

Then again, it is possible that our defense is really that good and we don't need Rudock to play well to win.  BYU isn't starting a very experienced QB.  I guess we'll see.  

Our passing game needs to be more in sync, it seems to just be poorly executed in the last 2 games. If we can do that and Smith runs like he did against OSU (NTOSU) then we really have a chance to win this game

Not a surprise... you get 2.5 just for being at home.  That means Vegas thinks Michigan's turnover prone QB and inconsistent running game is worth 1.5 point win.