fair point that
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|6 hours 41 min ago||Hate to say this||
But Desmond King is going to win the B1G Defensive Back of the Year unless Jourdan Lewis has a Woodson-like OSU statement game. King is having a monster season with 8 INTs, and Iowa may go 12-0 and win their division. And all 8 of those INTs came against Power 5 competition so it is not like he padded those stats against weak competition. In fact, Iowa has played 9 Power 5 schools so far this season, and King has at least one INT in 6 of those games. Both are deserving, but I think you give King the nod with his team's success.
|12 hours 17 min ago||Ohio is not growing and its population is getting older||
Where did I say it was all old people? But it is estimated by 2030, over 20% of Ohio's population will be over 65. Add in that Ohio has the 7th lowest population growth rate in the country, and you have an aging population. This is not just an Ohio problem; it is a Midwest problem. The Midwest states have the lowest population growth rates in the nation.
And Florida does have a lot of old people. But its population is almost double that of Ohio's with a growth rate 10 times bigger than Ohio's.
|12 hours 44 min ago||7th largest population, but how old are those people?||
I haven't looked the numbers, but I am guessing that OH population, like most of the Midwest, is an aging population. The state of Ohio is not growing like Virginia, New Jersey, or North Carolina. I bet you if you look at those NFL numbers 10-20 years from now, Ohio will no longer be in the top 5.
|13 hours 48 sec ago||This is so dumb||
Ohio State just won a national championship last year. Michigan has been dominated in the rivalry the last decade. This is probably the hardest time to try to recruit Ohio right now, and most of the top tier Ohio prospects in 2016 and even 2017 have been committed to OSU before Harbaugh even got settled into the Michigan job. When we were getting players like Desmond Howard & Charles Woodson, Michigan was dominating the rivalry. It is a lot easier to recruit when you are winning. As for the past with Bo, the scholarship limits were different. You could take a flyer on projects and second-tier prospects because you had more scholarships to give. But with adoption of the 85 scholarship limit in 1992, you can't do this any more. Add in that Ohio HS football isn't what it used to be, and you are going to end up with a much smaller prospect pool to recruit from.
The reason Hoke recruited Ohio and the Midwest hard is because he didn't have the cachet to recruit nationally like Harbaugh. But even Hoke got pretty much shut out of Ohio once Urban Meyer started winning at OSU. Hoke had one class where he hit Ohio State hard in the Tressel transition in 2012, but that was pretty much it. Harbaugh is going to go after the best players for Michigan and his team that he can get, and I don't think geography is going to have much to do with it.
|1 day 4 hours ago||S&P+ is by far the most bullish on Michigan's chances||
Most other ratings have Michigan's odds to win the East around 5-10%.
Massey: Michigan 42% and PSU 16% to win -> 6.7% odds to win East
ESPN FPI: Michigan 42.3% and PSU 20.4% to win -> 8.6% odds to win East
FEI will have their data out tomorrow, but it looks like it will probably have even worse odds than these 3 models.
|1 day 13 hours ago||Why though?||
It is so much easier to win in the ACC. Dabo pretty much has a two or three-game season every year at Clemson. Why would you trade that for the unrealistic LSU expectations with a schedule against the SEC West + Florida every year?
|1 day 13 hours ago||They were only #2 because they were undefeated||
Their schedule was backloaded and that was the only reason they were #2 at that point because they were undefeated after wins over overrated Auburn & Florida to start the season. LSU was actually only preseason #14 with Alabama #3, Auburn #6, Ole Miss #17, and Arkansas #18. They were expected in the preseason to finish 3rd or 4th in the SEC West. Someone has to lose out of that group of teams (and it was actually Auburn who took the brunt, not even LSU). If they win this weekend against Texas A&M, they will finish 8-3 (should be 9-3 but their bodybag season opener got cancelled) ahead of the Egg Bowl loser, Texas A&M, & Auburn. They have pretty much played to their preseason expectations. LSU consistently plays one of the toughest schedules in the nation right now in the SEC West with Florida as their fixed crossover game. Expectations are crazy if you expect to be a top 5 team with that schedule year in and year out.
By your definition, almost every team in the SEC West has undergone a collapse this year including Alabama post-Ole Miss home loss.
|1 day 13 hours ago||When did a 3-game losing streak become a collapse?||
LSU lost @Alabama, Arkansas, and @Ole Miss. I think you hope they win one or two of those games, but there is no shame in losing those 3 games.
I think LSU will probably empty the bank to get a big name to replace Miles, but the expectations in the SEC West have gone batshit crazy if that is a collapse.
|2 days 4 hours ago||Didn't even happen at CMU. It happened at Michigan.||
People seem to like to rewrite history and conveniently forget about this. He plead guilty to a misdemanor after being charged with 3 felonies connected to a theft at a casino during his last semester at Michigan after he announced his transfer. He was suspended at CMU for multiple games at the beginning of the season due to it. If he were still at Michigan, I have a hard time believing he wouldn't have been suspended for longer, possibly the season. And then to top it off, he was suspended for CMU's bowl game due to academics. Quite honestly, I think the transfer was for the best for him and Michigan. Refresh the history here:
|2 days 9 hours ago||This||
If Les Miles wants to continue working, there will be more than enough offers for him. I am more intrigued to see what kind of job he wants or is willing to take. Would Miles sit out a year to wait and see if someone will offer an elite job (like Urban Meyer) or would he take a job at a middle-tier Power 5 school like Illinois? I think part of this also depends on the terms of his buyout as well.
|4 days 4 hours ago||Some interesting Big Ten scores so far tonight||
Georgetown 71 - Wisconsin 61 F
Penn State 52 - Duquesne 78 F
Rider 58 - Maryland 59 1:09 2nd
UT Arlington 64 - Ohio State 57 2:39 2nd
Columbia 35 - Northwestern 28 Halftime
|4 days 5 hours ago||I think you jinxed us||
Everything went to shit after this post.
|4 days 12 hours ago||I have never understood the Ferentz hate||
Iowa is not an easy place to win. Do you think Nebraska would trade places with Iowa right now? Minnesota? Illinois? You don't get rid of Ferentz unless you can get someone better, and I am not sure there is a better candidate out there right now. Iowa's football history before Hayden Fry was pretty bleak for a long time, and that program, like many in that region of the country, risks falling into irrelevancy with the wrong coach.
|5 days 4 hours ago||With that kind of money, I could see Herman wait||
Why leave Houston where you are making $3M unless the right job comes along? Houston has a pretty good recruiting base, and he should be able to do well in the AAC. I could see him wait for a job like Texas, Texas A&M, or Ohio State to open up. The only job that is open right now that I would leave that for is USC.
|6 days 6 hours ago||27-20 Michigan||
|1 week 11 hours ago||I don't know if it has anything to do with age||
For me, the split M has always a had the look of cheap knockoff to me. I don't know if it is the font or what, but I have never liked it.
|1 week 11 hours ago||Who are these grad transfers "all over Power 5?"||
Please enlighten me. Most impact grad transfers happen at QB and RB. My theory on that: because only one of them can play and get the majority of playing time. I think that is also why grad transfers and transfers are so much more prevalent in college basketball than college football. But I do not see most successful Power 5 football programs using grad transfers as major tool in personnel. Most of them would rather have a 4-star recruit for that scholarship.
|1 week 12 hours ago||Wish it didn't have the split M on the sleeve||
Not a fan of the split M. Lose that and the jersey is beautiful.
|1 week 12 hours ago||The same thing that happens with most football grad transfers||
He is depth player who only sees time on special teams. Stars rarely transfer for grad years.
|1 week 12 hours ago||Getting graduate transfer is an even less viable strategy||
It is much more likely you will see a true freshman getting reps as a LB next year than a graduate transfer. Do you realize how rare graduate transfers in football are? This isn't basketball. I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan didn't take a graduate transfer at all. Scholarships are going to be tight for this upcoming class. I would much rather have a 4-star recruit than a grad transfer. The only position I think is realistic for a grad transfer may be punter.
|1 week 12 hours ago||And how many impact graduate transfer LBs can you name?||
I would be very surprised if we get a graduate transfer LB. We are already going to be tight with scholarships for this recruiting class. I don't get this topic of discussion at all. I think the most probable graduate transfer options are going to be a punter, RB, or Taysom Hill. The only reason I included Taysom Hill and a RB is because there is already some solid information on it (reportedly there will be RB attrition this offseason).
|1 week 12 hours ago||LOL||
It was a pretty hot debate. Who could Brady Hoke get in the graduate transfer market to fill potential personnel deficiencies with players who had one year of eligiblity remaining without knowing if said player wanted to transfer or even if he was going to graduate early? DISCUSS.
|1 week 12 hours ago||He already accounted for the punt return||
Indiana scored 34 points in regulation, 7 on the punt return. Technically, the defense didn't give up those points, but Indiana would have been starting that drive with excellent field position around midfield. It was very likely they would have gotten at least a FG on that possession as Indiana had picked up at least 25 yards on every possession so I think even calling 27 points is a bit of a stretch.
|1 week 13 hours ago||Not really worth speculating on||
Impossible to really gauge without knowing what kind of attrition happens in the offseason, how Michigan finishes in recruiting, and what players are even available & interested in Michigan. A lot of better things worth spending your time on right now. A better time to check back on this subject would be after spring practice when the coaches (and us) have a better idea what the team will look like in 2016.
|1 week 1 day ago||Added FEI (#10) and F/+ (#6)||
Updated for new FEI and F/+ ratings. Michigan actually rose to #10 in the FEI but still dropped in the F/+ due to the fall in S&P+ rating.
|1 week 2 days ago||I think you just proved my point||
When @Minnesota and @Indiana are the wins you are touting for Michigan's quality wins, I don't think you are making a very good case. Taking all bias out of this, go look at the advanced statistics. There is almost a consensus. And while you are so focused on Washington, you are ignoring the 3 or 4 better wins for Stanford. I even left out Arizona.
And Washington has played better than Minnesota and Indiana this year. Have you seen Washington's schedule? Almost every advanced metrics site has Washington in the top 25-40 range. Washington has wins @USC and Arizona. Minnesota and Indiana have nothing near that.
|1 week 2 days ago||Kind of misleading stat with such a small sample size||
Swoopes has 56 pass attempts on the season. 22 of them came in the Notre Dame game.
Texas just got blown out by Iowa State and West Virginia in 2 of their last 3 games. Are they better with Jerrod Heard at QB? Yes. So maybe they lose by 4 TDs instead of 5 TDs against ND. Texas is still a terrible football team. The combined records of the 3 teams they beat outside of Oklahoma (Rice, Kansas St, & Kansas) against FBS competition is 5-22 with no wins against any Power 5 schools. Jerrod Heard vs. Tyrone Swoopes is not really the issue here.
|1 week 2 days ago||Stanford has some decent wins||
Stanford has wins @USC, @Washington State, UCLA and Washington. Their losses are worse than Michigan's, but I think their wins are better too. Michigan has one or two quality wins, both at home (Northwestern and BYU).
Stanford has played a more difficult schedule to this point than Michigan, and almost every advanced rating has them above Michigan except for S&P+.
|1 week 2 days ago||True||
Not saying I agree with it. But there are merits to ND's case especially if you add the P12 results into the mix. If the P12 championship game was today, it would be USC vs. Stanford. ND plays/played both of these teams. If USC and Stanford win out in the P12, that would be a huge feather in ND's cap--almost like a conference championship.
And it's not like Texas has been that much better with Jerrod Heard at QB. It was a fluke game though because almost every good Big 12 team has beaten Texas.
|1 week 2 days ago||An undefeated Power 5 team will get in the playoffs||
I don't think there is any question an undefeated Okla St. would get in. I think the debate starts with a one-loss Big 12 champ (most likely Oklahoma) versus a one-loss ND. The one unique part in this is that ND destroyed Texas in the first game of the season, and Oklahoma lost to Texas. I think Oklahoma would be the better team if they win out, but I'm not sure how they would leave out ND especially if USC & Stanford both make the P12 championship game.
Still a lot of football left to be played though so not sure how deep it's worth analyzing this at this point.