Line Trending Against Michigan
Most bets are on Alabama, not just with the spread, but on the money line. I’m not saying this game is going to be easy, but I do think Michigan has a better chance to win than Alabama. However, the vast majority of the public (and the majority of the pundits) are predicting Alabama, with a great deal of confidence to boot. Is that just based on their name? Recency bias for beating Georgia? I mean, 11 days ago it took a miracle for them to beat a 6-6 Auburn team. What am I missing?
https://sports.yahoo.com/bettors-are-heavily-backing-alabama-to-beat-michigan-in-the-rose-bowl-160957331.html
December 6th, 2023 at 7:54 AM ^
Good, Please move it so my ML bet on michigan makes me more.
December 6th, 2023 at 9:09 AM ^
You are braver than me...the only thing worse than losing to TCU would have been ALSO losing money. I literally just went to bed after that game (perhaps alcohol was involved). My wife was not happy about celebrating the New Year sans her husband.
December 6th, 2023 at 9:13 AM ^
It is just a game, after all...real life still goes on.
December 6th, 2023 at 11:06 AM ^
Agreed here. Took me having a kid to finally figure this out.
Life is too short to spend having stuff you can't control ruin your day
December 6th, 2023 at 1:51 PM ^
Same...my two kids changed all that shit. Of course we care, of course we show emotion towards these games, but man o man...after that clock hits zero I go do other shit and really dont care.
outside of ohio state game, fuck them.
December 6th, 2023 at 1:07 PM ^
And missed the osu loss?
That made me feel a lot better.
December 6th, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^
Yeah man, wife and family comes way before football.
I had to step away from Michigan football at times when it was affecting my attitude with my family.
December 6th, 2023 at 6:53 PM ^
Excellent
let everyone bet against us please, being the underdog is ok with me
December 6th, 2023 at 7:54 AM ^
#itjustmeansmore
*also the general public probably has a healthy dose of M vs Georgia and TCU memories on this stage, which is fair
December 6th, 2023 at 8:08 AM ^
Agree. I have a healthy dose of those myself. Hoping this year is different obviously.
December 6th, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
I think you mean an unhealthy dose.
December 6th, 2023 at 11:03 AM ^
7th time’s a charm.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:27 AM ^
Also, I'm sure the public is thinking "Until Michigan beats a legit SEC team, I will keep betting against them.' It was a completely different world and time, but we didn't look too good against them last time.
I can't wait to see a great game and a win for the Maize and Blue.
December 6th, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^
This is one of those situations where this year's teams and all the stats are likely correct in that Michigan is a slight favorite, but all the past evidence and "feelingsball" tilts heavily in Alabama's favor. I'm fine with that, as I myself somewhat want to see it before I believe it.
I have more hope than most due to how even we played Bama in 2019 with a much worse team than this year, but Saban with a month to prepare is a brutal challenge, especially in the playoff where Bama rarely loses.
If we win this one, boy howdy is it gonna feel great
December 6th, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^
Slight is underselling it- they're 8/9 points on SP+ and FEI
Doesn't mean they'll win, but it's not like this is an analytics full toss-up here.
December 6th, 2023 at 10:56 AM ^
Good thing Harbaugh and Moore have a month to prepare also.
December 7th, 2023 at 12:54 AM ^
Performance in the post season. One is a master the other its his only remaining flaw (talking point). You dont put money against someone with Saban's record. It should be fun. I think if you look at SP+ numbers and see Michigan with an advantage its also important to look at who may have held their offense back in a matter of speaking. UM couldve opened up a lot more plays whereas Alabama was doing everything they could to survive these one score games. We might have a lot of data points that UM purposefully never put on the table.
December 6th, 2023 at 9:51 AM ^
I was at that silly game. I had 3 quarters to really admire Jerry's world. The Alabama fans were great-they had every reason to gloat. Now we have come full circle. I want to see Michigan win. It will be complete then. I didn't think it would take 11 years but in retrospect that's about right. This is our time, and we are going to WIN!
GO BLUE!!
December 6th, 2023 at 10:31 AM ^
Harbaugh has not won a bowl game since his first year. No evidence that he will out-gameplan a Saban-led team with a month to prepare. I’m hoping above hope that this is the year he breaks that trend!
December 6th, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
Trends eventually break. Saban is also 5-0 against #1 seeds in the playoffs. A couple trends that can break. This is the year to break shit!
December 6th, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
I really want to see that douchebag Pete Finebum's head explode when we win.
December 6th, 2023 at 12:24 PM ^
I have this image of his head exploding the way heads did in the movie “Kingsman.”
December 6th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^
Yes, although Michigan is power rated much better than the field this year I believe if we played Texas/Wash we'd be such large fav that we'd get most of the action. And will.
I think SEC/Alabama is the biggest factor. I mean we should be a 5-9 point fav vs Bama if you went off power rankings alone.
Personally, Michigan offense vs Iowa (specifically oline) is the only thing giving me pause. Beyond that in my mind when I think about how this game plays out I expect a close game in which Alabama just like OSU trails Michigan the whole game.
December 6th, 2023 at 1:09 PM ^
I know we've lost a lot of the #BPone that we all used to have, but it's still very strong for me in a bowl game scenario... especially against a *historically* very tough team.
December 6th, 2023 at 7:54 AM ^
What am I missing?
The fact that Alabama is incredibly talented, incredibly well coached and has a history of showing up in huge games? Also, that their opponent, while also incredibly talented and well coached, has a history of not exactly showing up in big (post season) games.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:06 AM ^
That is very specific criteria on when one team is better than the other. History means nothing here as it is not the same team.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:15 AM ^
i personally wouldn't call incredibly talented and well coached 'history,' but that's just me.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:27 AM ^
You said "has a history of showing up in big games". Assumed you meant more than the Georgia game from last week as they didn't show up in the other big game this season against Texas.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:34 AM ^
seems like you're just being deliberately obtuse.
December 6th, 2023 at 9:01 AM ^
Sorry you feel that way. I am just trying to tell you that this year's team on both sides and the coaches deserve evaluation based on what they have done this year. Not a fan of using TCU game or Saban's infinite championship runs to put down our chances. If that means I am being obtuse, so be it. Not my intent.
December 6th, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^
No judgment from me; I'm just here to declare that I love the word, obtuse.
And, to piggyback off of another thread, I--in the minority as I may be--love the movie, The Shawshank Redemption.
Carry on...
December 7th, 2023 at 3:46 AM ^
I think he is being deliberate.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:16 AM ^
It’s the same coaches though, and Saban has a long history of doing this with his different teams year after year. Not to mention that for Michigan, most of the key players on the team are the same ones who didn’t show up last year against TCU. Not saying I agree with the logic or not but we should be realistic about Saban’s track record, especially with 3+ weeks to prepare.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:30 AM ^
Saban's coaching skills is unparalleled. No question about that. But they were beat by Georgia in the past. So, there is a chance. This is not the same Saban or similar Bama teams from before 2021.
December 6th, 2023 at 9:04 AM ^
Saban can coach college football. Period.
December 6th, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
Funny that I’ve seen several posters lately saying he’s just a good cheater but a bad coach and use his NFL stint as justification.
December 6th, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^
They are prob not backing up their words with $$. The money is going to go with Saban and his 5-Star mafia. Obviously, UM can win this game...and if they do a LOT of narratives will be burned to the ground.
December 6th, 2023 at 1:32 PM ^
I guess it is which part of Saban’s history you are looking at.
I like to cherry-pick and remember that Saban was a mediocre football coach until 1999. His time at MSU was erratic—He would lose to an awful Gopher team and then go and knock off Ohio State. His 1999 season got him the job at LSU, well, that along with a pretty bad year for Mike Shula, but he was very unremarkable as a BIG10 coach.
He did master the SEC Art of the Money very quickly. Now everyone can do that. His team is deep, but so is ours and I think Harbaugh is the better coach.
December 7th, 2023 at 3:49 AM ^
Its not this Bama teams or any Saban teams midseason basic SEC game valley we are worried about. Its the late season/post season peaks that are the problem vs our typical times to peak under Jim Harbaugh. Sabans most recent example being beating number 1. Thats a helluva peak to be coming off of.
December 6th, 2023 at 10:25 AM ^
Not to mention that for Michigan, most of the key players on the team are the same ones who didn’t show up last year against TCU.
That could be a reason they fail but I for one think this will be a reason they succeed.
December 6th, 2023 at 10:34 AM ^
I remember when Tim Hardaway Jr. would say "If you give John Beilein 5 days to prepare, you're not going to win." I think you can say the same thing about Saban.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:36 AM ^
Of course history doesn't mean much for this game, but the question is why is the general public betting against Michigan and history is exactly why.
December 6th, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
I found this very interesting
"Nearly 80% of the money bet on the spread is taking Alabama plus the point, and a staggering 93% of the money wagered on the money line is on Alabama to win outright."
And yet the spread has only moved .5 points, opened at Michigan -2 and currently sits at Michigan -1.5. Usually when the early money pounds one side of the line Vegas starts moving the line to attract interest for the other team and balance out their bets. And yet as of now they're not doing that.
That tells me Vegas is OK with having a massive inbalance favoring Alabama. Which also tells me the guys who make a shit-ton of money by not paying out bets like Michigan to win/cover or they'd be taking steps to hedge their losses.
December 6th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
The line not moving is proof that none of the sharpest books love Alabama nearly as much as the general public. If a sharp grouped moved on this line, the line itself would be moving along with it. The fact that it’s sat out there for 3 1/2 days likely means that a lot of groups are waiting for the public to bet it down so they can get better value on Michigan.
December 6th, 2023 at 1:03 PM ^
It opened at -2.5 at the books I was tracking and is now down to -1 at those same books. So it’s definitely moving. I doubt we’ll be favorites by the time kick off comes around.
December 6th, 2023 at 3:48 PM ^
There were never any 2.5’s at big books. I know the articles (like this one) that are looking for storylines are using 2.5 to paint their picture, but there’s not an amateur on the planet that has a 2.5 either way. 2’s were available, but even those disappeared rather quickly. Very few books show a 1 now, and I’d be willing to bet that this ends at UM -1/1.5. If sharps were going to move heavy on Bama, it would’ve already happened. This slow trickle will likely never move it ~3 points, and very unlikely it’ll move through as big of a number as the ML
December 6th, 2023 at 8:11 AM ^
This exactly. I'm even worried about us playing on a grass field. Have we played on grass this year?
December 6th, 2023 at 8:13 AM ^
Yes, Michigan State and Penn State have grass fields
December 6th, 2023 at 8:40 AM ^
That's good. I just seem to remember players slipping on the Rose Bowl grass. Not sure if it's a different type of grass from what we play on in the midwest.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:56 AM ^
We slipped a lot at the fiesta.