Line Trending Against Michigan
Most bets are on Alabama, not just with the spread, but on the money line. I’m not saying this game is going to be easy, but I do think Michigan has a better chance to win than Alabama. However, the vast majority of the public (and the majority of the pundits) are predicting Alabama, with a great deal of confidence to boot. Is that just based on their name? Recency bias for beating Georgia? I mean, 11 days ago it took a miracle for them to beat a 6-6 Auburn team. What am I missing?
https://sports.yahoo.com/bettors-are-heavily-backing-alabama-to-beat-mi…
December 6th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
Michigan vs Everygrass.
December 6th, 2023 at 9:04 AM ^
california cincamillia, can't grow that here.
December 6th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
*sinsemilla
Greenskeepers are very particular about those things
December 6th, 2023 at 10:26 AM ^
And means that it is seedless, because the male plants were removed preventing pollination. Increases concentration of THC
December 6th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
Well, that's what happens when you massively overseed Bermuda with Ryegrass at the last minute. Ryegrass gets wet and slippery when the sun sets. Unfortunately, from what I've heard, the Rose Bowl is a bermuda base with both Kentucky Bluegrass and Ryegrass blended in. KBG has much less slippage issues, so hopefully they're running a higher percentage of KBG this season. The turf managers appear to be very in tune with the slipping issue.
December 6th, 2023 at 11:14 AM ^
So that means longer cleats. OSU wet the field to slow down the M rush in 2006. Woodley was a millisecond from crushing Troy Smith but kept slipping coming around the edge.
December 6th, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
The team needs to hire this guy as a grass consultant for the Rose Bowl.
December 6th, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
It's a hybrid: A cross between Kentucky Blue grass, federment bent, and Northern California Sensimilla.
December 6th, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
Cannonball!!
December 6th, 2023 at 8:16 AM ^
yes if you look clearly you can see Braiden lounging on grass just before someone violently assaults him
December 6th, 2023 at 9:30 AM ^
Three losses in the last three years. One was against a Georgia juggernaut team. The other two were on grass to inferior teams. Both games had several players slipping and falling at highly inopportune times. I sure hope we have a new equipment manager for this one.
December 6th, 2023 at 9:31 AM ^
I don't want to hear that we had to change our cleats at half time.
December 6th, 2023 at 10:03 AM ^
Seriously, we have the best coaching staff, the best strength and conditioning staff, the best nutrition staff, but we can’t find an equipment manager who knows what cheats to wear on grass?
December 6th, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
but we can’t find an equipment manager who knows what cheats to wear on grass?
I believe Michigan had to let that person go as part of the investigation.
December 6th, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
Hahaha, whoops.
December 6th, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
Was Connor Stalions getting video of opponents grass too?
December 6th, 2023 at 9:13 AM ^
Yeah, despite their relatively "down" year (lol), Alabama is still the most talented team in the country according to the 247 Team Talent Composite, and by a big margin. We are 14th.
(Texas is 6th, Washington 26th, FWIW)
December 6th, 2023 at 9:33 AM ^
Exactly. And their depth of talent is probably the toughest part. Michigan loses a starter it’s a problem. Alabama loses a starter, and another player steps right in.
December 6th, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
You mean like Barnhart/Trente Jones did for Zinter (yeah not as good, but good)
Or Myles Hilton for Henderson
Or Mullings for Edwards
Or Sainristil and McBurrows for Will Johnson
Or Quinten Johnson and Keon Sabb for R Moore and Paige?
Or our 10 man deep DL? Or El-Hadi who played well last year and still hasn't been needed?
We're deep, too. They may be deep with sophomore five stars, we're deep with junior/senior 4*s.
December 6th, 2023 at 10:16 AM ^
Yes but as we've seen with OSU, that stat is wildly overrated. OSU gets credit for 4 5 star receivers who never see the field, yet that makes them a more talented team? perhaps, but not necessarily on the field.
What's different to quantify is the comparison of a 5 star Soph OG, vs Sr Kris Jenkins. People like Ari Wasserman would say advantage 5* but we've clearly seen that developed players/older players generally have an advantage.
And despite how good of a coach Saban is, Tommy Rees is still calling plays. Not even that they barely beat Auburn, but they barely beat a number of BAD teams this year.
December 6th, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^
^^^This
December 7th, 2023 at 3:55 AM ^
You arent getting Arkansas Bama I can promise you that. When is the last time Bama played a post season game against a top team and didnt play well? I have faith in our defense but Im really not sure about our offense.
December 6th, 2023 at 12:28 PM ^
FSU is 20. I hate this almost as much as the focus on the line. F' Alabama. Go Blue!
December 6th, 2023 at 10:05 AM ^
i was going to post basically the same - bama has history of countless 1st rounders winning big time playoff games while michigan is on the come up and has struggled in end of season games. makes sense for the public to favor sabans dynasty
December 6th, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^
Privilege not dynasty. That ship has sailed. Who's your daddy now Saban? Go Blue!
December 6th, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
Upvoted this at 68 and it jumped to 70. Not nice.
December 6th, 2023 at 7:55 AM ^
Recency bias in terms of Alabama has done well in post season playoffs under Nick Saban while I can’t remember the last time Michigan won a bowl game. I’d bet Alabama as an underdog too based on that. I’m hoping Michigans approach and performance makes that a suckers bet Jan 1
December 6th, 2023 at 8:17 AM ^
And let's not forget Alabama's fight song literally claims they will win the Rose Bowl
December 6th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
Isn't the Rose Bowl on the West? The melody haunts my reverie. Wrong song?
December 6th, 2023 at 11:14 PM ^
sir, this is a white castle
December 6th, 2023 at 8:18 AM ^
Michigan's last bowl win was the 2016 (2015 season) Citrus Bowl against Florida. We've lost six straight bowl games since then. I think that recent history alone would cause the point spread to shift a handful of points to Alabama.
December 6th, 2023 at 9:16 AM ^
This always feels as much mental as schematic - the program seems so focused on winning against OSU and the Big10 that the focus, energy and passion past that point feels off?
My hope is that the team preps for Alabama in the same way they do OSU as it is going to take that level of play to win this one.
December 6th, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^
Hopefully now that we've gotten over the OSU garbage mound consistently, the team can focus on postseason play without too much hangover.
December 6th, 2023 at 7:56 AM ^
Half of the ESPN gameday crew also thought Iowa would straight up beat UM. Shows how much everybody doubts/hates UM. Screw them. Let them lose their money.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:03 AM ^
I don't care for how Gameday covered the Michigan stuff but to be fair the only reason the two chose Iowa was because of their Underdog Picks. Lee Corso was trying to catch up to Pat for the season and Pat knew this and chose the same. They didn't really think Iowa would win. Even Rece who I can't stand recently said after the picks for our game that those three have no hope of getting it correct.
I am all about calling them out on their crap but this isn't one of them.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:32 AM ^
Please, please, please… Lee Corso.. one favor to ask of you about three weeks from now.
When it’s time to put on some headgear, please don that fine Crimson and Cream elephant head.
Thank you…
December 6th, 2023 at 7:56 AM ^
It's us against the world, betters included. This is what the team wants.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:17 AM ^
OSU against the world, Ha. It's Michigan vs everybody.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:18 AM ^
They’re not our betters.
December 6th, 2023 at 9:11 AM ^
We've got Vegas on our side though, and the house always wins.
December 6th, 2023 at 7:57 AM ^
Best case scenario. Instead of coming in overconfident like many believe we did last year, we'll come in focused and looking to prove who we are! Don't think that we won't use the DISRESPECT angle!
December 6th, 2023 at 7:58 AM ^
This is fine. Gamblers gonna gamble.
December 6th, 2023 at 7:59 AM ^
This is all part of the Harbaugh/Stallions bet-fixing cheating scheme that the FBI is totally investigating and will result in Schembechler Hall being nuked from orbit and all current Michigan Big Ten championships being retroactively awarded to THE Ohio State University and noted tough man Ryan Day.
-Some Buckeye Message Board Guy
December 6th, 2023 at 7:59 AM ^
Didn’t bettors go all in on Ohio State against us also?
December 6th, 2023 at 8:38 AM ^
They did, line dropped from about -6 to -3.5 in the days leading up to The Game. Crazy thing is that had we been able to get that last first down and run out the clock (i.e. not kicked the FG), OSU would have covered...
December 6th, 2023 at 8:03 AM ^
At this point I would rather have everyone picking against Michigan.
December 6th, 2023 at 9:28 AM ^
Along with a cocky, complacent, and overconfident Alabama team. People seem to forget that they expended a LOT of mojo to beat to Georgia (as did we to beat OSU). Kind of hoping I hear some trash talk from their players about how we're not that great.
I am glad the game is on Jan 1. New Year's Eve has been pretty bad for us going back to the Orange bowl vs FSU. I loved Mo H but dammit I wish he had looked for the ball instead of rubbing his belly--good chance we win if we get that fumble.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:07 AM ^
It's a good sign for Michigan that heavy betting is on Alabama and the line has not shifted significantly. It suggests the sharps are confident in a Michigan win.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:18 AM ^
Sharps probably aren’t betting a ton yet. They mostly place bets right before the game when they’ve gathered as much info as possible, plus the limits are lower now. We’ll know more about what the sharps think within 24 hours of kickoff.