Michigan is currently favored in EVERY game on their schedule
At the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas on their Game of the Year board. The Westgate is the #1 sports book in the United States. They takes the biggest bets, highest limits so these numbers are very legit.
Michigan -1.5 over Wisconsin
Michigan -10.5 over Iowa
Michigan -6 over Notre Dame
Michigan -11 over Michigan State
Michigan -2 over Ohio State
*-I have no idea why the game at Penn State is not on their board but messing around with the spreads against common opponents and adjusting for home field it looks like they would have Michigan around -4 or -5 at Penn State.
September 10th, 2019 at 1:11 PM ^
I thought this team sucks, the season is already over and everyone thinks they're lucky to win 7 games!
September 10th, 2019 at 1:13 PM ^
You decide how good the team is based on Vegas odds not by play on the field?
September 10th, 2019 at 1:15 PM ^
No, far from it. But everyone* here is basing this season as a failure because they can't hold onto the ball through the first two games, in which they still won. Let's see what happens in Madison next Saturday instead of screaming that the sky is falling when in fact, it may not be at all.
*not really everyone
September 10th, 2019 at 1:17 PM ^
Wisconsin is a must win after that embarrassing performance. A loss here and the rest of the season looks like a disaster. Harbaugh has to step up big this game
September 10th, 2019 at 1:43 PM ^
Wisconsin is not in our division. It is not a must-win IMO.
September 10th, 2019 at 1:59 PM ^
It still counts toward winning the division, it just won't help/hurt us in a tiebreaker.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:26 PM ^
Need to be 8-0 or 7-1 to win the division, with the one loss being to someone outside the division, in all likelihood.
This and ND are the games that we can afford to drop left on the schedule. Everything else is a must-win.
September 10th, 2019 at 3:03 PM ^
That's not really true. 7-1 will likely be enough even with an in-division loss, depending on who loses to who. 6-2 may even be enough. There's a lot of strong teams in the east division, everyone not named Rutgers is capable of giving everyone else a close game. And that's not even considering the games against the Wisconsins, Iowas, Nebraskas, and Northwesterns of the west.
September 10th, 2019 at 3:08 PM ^
Name one time the B1G East winner has been 6-2 so far.
EDIT: Just remembered it's 9 conference games but whatever, point remains the same.
September 10th, 2019 at 6:42 PM ^
Makes sense.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:55 PM ^
Actually Wisconsin and Notre Dane games are games we could lose and still win the division. If we’re going to lose at all this year lose in those two games. Pretty much any other game lowers our chances at getting out of the East. While I’d like to escape with one loss this year I would take it in a heartbeat if we lose to Wisconsin and ND but win all our other games.
September 10th, 2019 at 6:34 PM ^
How would a loss to Iowa or Illinois be different than a loss to Wisconsin? You would have to go pretty far down the list of tie breakers to get to a point where the W-L record of the team you lost to makes a difference and Iowa may end up with a better record than Wisconsin. Beat OSU and PSU and we probably win the division.Especially after wins over MSU and MD.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:02 PM ^
It’s not about division race it’s about keeping the team and the fan base together. A loss to Wisconsin after that embarrassing performance and a bye week to prepare and this season falls apart real fast
September 10th, 2019 at 2:17 PM ^
Do some people think the west games don't count toward divison standings or something? I've seen this comment multiple times. You realize the standings go by overall record regardless of games against the west right?
September 10th, 2019 at 3:13 PM ^
I think the point is that, if we lose to Wisconsin but win all the rest of our B1G games, we're guaranteed to win the B1G East, since every other team in the East would have lost to us.
September 10th, 2019 at 3:40 PM ^
Michigan still controls their division destiny with a loss to Wisconsin...
September 10th, 2019 at 2:35 PM ^
Well then forfeit the game and have another week to improve and heal up. Why play meaningless games if the game doesn’t matter for the division?
September 10th, 2019 at 8:46 PM ^
It’s not a must-win in the context of achieving our goals for the season. It’s a must-win in the context that we probably aren’t going to win a lot of games if we can’t beat Wisconsin.
September 10th, 2019 at 3:10 PM ^
Not really.
Maybe for fan psyche, and my ability to actually delve into MGoBlog comments the week following.
But for the season, Wisconsin is probably the most affordable conference loss for the whole year. If they lose. Which...my feeling is it's a coin flip.
September 10th, 2019 at 3:52 PM ^
First (your earlier comment) how do you think Vegas sets the line? Darts?
Hard to feel like the (arguably*) toughest game left on the schedule is a must win for a 2-0 team.
I haven't enjoyed watching Michigan the first two weeks, either. Your hyperbole is completely over the top. Imo.
(*) look osu is always our toughest game left but I suspect if osu was playing at Wisconsin on the 21st they wouldn't be favored... they've looked really, really scary in their first two games.
Cheers.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:04 PM ^
Or it could be fans are tired of losing to OSU every year and waiting for Harbaugh to finally deliver some type of championship. Fans are dying for something to get excited about and the performance in the first two games wasn’t it.
September 10th, 2019 at 11:38 PM ^
Username checks out
September 10th, 2019 at 1:33 PM ^
The betting market and the the millions of dollars in it is the best future predictor that we have with where these teams are at etc.......
Does it mean it's 100% accurate? Obviously not but it's the closest thing we have over a large sample size. If you have something better then please share what is so we can make a ton of money :)
September 10th, 2019 at 8:52 PM ^
This might be my favorite thing I've read on this blog, "If you have something better then please share what it is so we can make a ton of money".
Username definitely, definitely checks out :)
September 10th, 2019 at 1:57 PM ^
What do you think Vegas sets the lines based on?
September 10th, 2019 at 2:25 PM ^
The Vegas odds take play on the field into account and a lot more factors that carry more weight than a small sample size of somewhat random events.
This team is coached by good coaches and has good players - mostly the same players that were outstanding last year. That means more than your perception of the two games that have been played.
September 10th, 2019 at 1:16 PM ^
FYI Vegas odds are based on FANBASE, meaning how many idiots are willing to bet on their team and their betting trends; other minor factors play a role, least of which is how good the team actually is. All the Vegas odds tell you, is that M Alum and fans are willing to blow their money on bets even when the team isn't performing.
Another way to look at this is, Vegas doesn't want you to bet against Michigan, because they're rolling the dice on better teams handing them an "L". *Lights remain on at Sin City*
Thank you, Elvis has left the building!
LOST WAGES Resident
September 10th, 2019 at 1:22 PM ^
Yes and no - an active betting fanbase definitely can influence the odds, but you also won't see them deviate much from their actual expected scores because the sharps - working with amounts that dwarf what most fans have - will hammer them and they will lose big. There's a reason it's difficult to make money against vegas over the course of the season.
September 10th, 2019 at 1:25 PM ^
Exactly my point... odds are based on betting criteria; team performance is secondary.
September 10th, 2019 at 1:41 PM ^
I have been betting professionally for over a decade now and this statement is simply not true and drives me crazy people keep saying this.
If that was the case the sharps would be hammering all those mistakes. Good luck fading the good, popular teams and see where that gets you (right around 50% long-term, trust me).
The betting market is controlled not by fan bases but by major sports bettors and syndicates with the best math models and information, those who bet 5 figures a game. Just look at the odds board right now and watch the steam move the line from the biggest (winning bettors).
Public may effect things a half point or so in huge public games (MNF, SB, big CFB game) and even that is in question. The bottom line is the sports books make the lines and move their numbers based off the biggest, smartest bettors in the world. It has almost nothing to do with Joe Fan betting 50 bucks on his team. These numbers are tight at the Westgate and have likely only been hit hard by professional money right now as most people don't like to let their money sit for months on a game.
September 10th, 2019 at 3:37 PM ^
This should be a sticky. Nice post.
September 10th, 2019 at 1:45 PM ^
All of this is incorrect.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:40 PM ^
Not really. The vast majority of betters on any given game are neutrals.
September 10th, 2019 at 8:28 PM ^
So why aren't you throwing all your money against teams with big fanbases? Seems like an easy way to become a billionaire over a few seasons.
September 11th, 2019 at 9:23 AM ^
Exactly. These idiots keep spewing this nonsense but fail to see that simply betting against big fan bases should result in almost guaranteed success. Trust me, it doesn’t.
September 10th, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^
And our pets heads are falling off!!
September 10th, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^
Dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!
September 10th, 2019 at 5:45 PM ^
Season isn't over. 7 wins is ridiculous. We will win 10 (+ or - 1 game). Lose to Ohio State. Play poorly and lose in a Bowl game. Then find some reason why next year will be different than last year.
September 11th, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^
What could possibly go wrong?
September 10th, 2019 at 1:12 PM ^
We were also favored against osu last year. The fact that we would be favored against Wisconsin on the road is horse shit. We haven’t earned a thing. Go out and win a big game on the road. Something harbaugh has never done btw.
September 10th, 2019 at 1:13 PM ^
Harbaugh’s biggest road win so far has to be...MSU last year who had a QB with arm playing? This needs to be the game to turn the tide
September 10th, 2019 at 3:41 PM ^
He had 2 arms.
September 10th, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^
You don't consider games in E. Lansing "big games?"
September 10th, 2019 at 1:19 PM ^
The wins in east Lansing were against dantonios worst teams and arguably some of the worst MSU teams ever. No those are not big wins
September 10th, 2019 at 1:28 PM ^
This is really self-defeating and unfair. One of the reasons for the narrative that "Michigan does not win big games" is because of troll-logic like this. Michigan won three big games last year alone. Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State last year were all big games.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:05 PM ^
The argument is big games on the road! Harbaugh has won many big games at home. On the road he has zero wins against teams that finished the season ranked
September 10th, 2019 at 2:19 PM ^
It's almost like winning big games at another team's stadium (often at night) is difficult. Who would have thought that to be the case!
September 10th, 2019 at 2:41 PM ^
I don't know how objectively dumb things like this ever get upvotes.
Harbaugh beat Northwestern on the road just god damn last year, and NW finished #21 in the country. You can look this information up on the internet and everything.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:46 PM ^
Ah but that doesn't count because it's Northwestern.
...is probably what they'd respond to you
September 10th, 2019 at 2:49 PM ^
Two of those teams played with broken QBs and Alex Hornibrook is Alex Hornibrook. I'm not saying we would've lost any of those games, but the stats were skewed by those facts.