A Look at Our Beaten Opponents: UConn Actually Isn't Terrible
Don't know if we'll be getting an Opponent Watch this week, but if you look at how our vanquished foes have been doing, there are some surprises. Starting with this: UConn actually isn't terrible. They aren't good, but they aren't as terrible as everyone thought they'd be.
The Huskies have won three of their last four and on Saturday, they beat Boston College for their first victory over a Power 5 team in like five years. They're currently 4-5, and they're a huge favorite to beat UMass this week. Keep it up, UConn.
Colorado State and Hawaii, meanwhile, are still pretty bad. Colorado State is 2-6 and Hawaii is 2-7. As we await the playoff rankings tonight, here are the current records of our eight defeated opponents:
Penn State - 6-2
Maryland - 6-2
Iowa - 4-4
UConn - 4-5
Indiana - 3-5
Michigan State - 3-5
Colorado State - 2-6
Hawaii - 2-7
November 1st, 2022 at 4:17 PM ^
So our opponents are 30-28 in games not involving Michigan. Not that bad of a schedule.
November 1st, 2022 at 4:25 PM ^
While Rutgers definitely will hurt that record, Nebraska will be a push and Illinois & OSU will significantly help come playoff seeding time.
November 1st, 2022 at 4:33 PM ^
Shame on Michigan for scheduling such weak opponents like MSU, though. Should have scheduled more tougher teams like UConn.
/s
November 1st, 2022 at 5:11 PM ^
you can remove the /s
November 1st, 2022 at 5:14 PM ^
Always need to look at it without the Mich game
November 1st, 2022 at 5:43 PM ^
You know, I've never done that. Good shyt
November 1st, 2022 at 4:17 PM ^
Looking forward to everyone losing their mind when the Terps shock the Nits
November 1st, 2022 at 4:28 PM ^
And when they can score at will on Ohio
November 1st, 2022 at 6:22 PM ^
Weirdly, the last couple of weeks both give me a bit more confidence in our ability to slow down the buck offense...While also thinking there may actually be something to their defensive renaissance.
November 2nd, 2022 at 9:38 AM ^
They gave up 31 to the same PSU offense we held to 10, they gave up 20 to lil bro and 21 to both wisconsin and toledo.....
I'm not sure their D is all that..
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:54 PM ^
Yea but a lot of that - Wisconsin and Sparty and even the last TD to Penn State - wes garbage time, right? I was expecting PSU to kind of expose them, and they did not, although turnovers kinda cut the other way. It's more of a vibes thing than anything else.
November 1st, 2022 at 4:18 PM ^
No Opponent Watch, we riot.
November 1st, 2022 at 4:22 PM ^
“That’s all M does anyway!”
-RCMB, probably.
November 1st, 2022 at 4:30 PM ^
"They deserved it for provoking me"
-MGoStaeer who bashes Opponent Watch's head in with a brick
November 1st, 2022 at 5:13 PM ^
We took it easy on 'em.
-RCMB (Red Cedar Manson Brothers)
November 1st, 2022 at 5:47 PM ^
Assigning emotions to the UConn Husky is one of the best bits in Opponent Watch.
November 1st, 2022 at 4:23 PM ^
So a combined 30-36. I'll bet that isn't far off from most top 25 teams.
November 1st, 2022 at 4:25 PM ^
Jim Mora Jr really has done yeoman's work there this year. Another win slipped thru their fingers or they'd be sitting at 5-4 with a shot a BOWL ELIGIBILITY which is pretty much the ceiling of the ceiling there at UConn.
November 1st, 2022 at 4:29 PM ^
Out of 131 teams, our nonconf opponents are ranked in SP+ at 123 (UConn), 128 (CSU), and 129 (Hawaii). UConn is still bad as is our nonconf slate
November 1st, 2022 at 4:40 PM ^
Yeah, they might have a couple wins against some other very bad teams, but Uconn is still atrocious. That said, the committee puts weight on arbitrary "wins against teams with winning records" as they've previously stated so if Uconn could get to that point, maybe it doesn't look bad to their eyes.
It certainly does still look bad to all the SoS metrics. We have the worst SoS of any playoff contender, although UGA is close right now. Our games against Illinois and OSU will mean we end up with an average-ish but not completely basement bottom SoS.
November 1st, 2022 at 4:56 PM ^
What would UConn be ranked without a 59-0 loss against Michigan?
November 1st, 2022 at 5:19 PM ^
Exactly.
November 1st, 2022 at 5:34 PM ^
Pretty much the same. SP+ rates your efficiency adjusted for opponent. The rating accounts for the fact that UConn was playing the #4 team.
I'm not sure why people are trying to sugarcoat this or get defensive about it. Our nonconference schedule was very bad. I think the more important part that gets ignored in this discussion is that we play 9 conference games with only 3 nonconference games when the SEC & ACC only play 8 conference games with 4 nonconference. There are a lot of SEC and ACC teams that play 3 weak teams in the in nonconference like we did but get credit for that 4th game against a Power 5 opponent that would be analogous to playing a 9th conference game.
Take Tennessee for example. Tennessee's three worst nonconference games (Ball St, Akron, UT Martin) are as bad as our 3 nonconference opponents. But because Tennessee played Pittsburgh in their 4th nonconference game, they don't get examined the same way. What hurts Michigan this year though is that the Big Ten is down relative to the SEC.
November 1st, 2022 at 6:12 PM ^
Honestly the last part (about the Big 10 weakness vs. the SEC) is the bigger hurdle. MSU and Iowa being bad while Ole Miss and and LSU are decent is what's hurting UM at this point more than the fact they didn't play UCLA and UT played Pitt.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:07 PM ^
And frankly, I would prefer an 8 game conference schedule and one or two P5 nonconference opponents, especially if they rotated through the non-rivals more quickly (rather than a series of home-and-homes, play the rest of the conference every two or three years). I'd like to see more variety in the schedule, for the sake of the players as well as the fans (and recruiting).
November 1st, 2022 at 5:38 PM ^
Out of 131 teams, our nonconf opponents are ranked in SP+ at 123 (UConn), 128 (CSU), and 129 (Hawaii). UConn is still bad as is our nonconf slate
Yep.
UConn is still among the worst 10-12 teams in FBS. But good for them if they get bowl eligible!
https://twitter.com/cfbNate/status/1587427493031690242/photo/2
November 1st, 2022 at 4:31 PM ^
FYS looks good sitting there in between Indiana and Colorado State.
November 1st, 2022 at 4:34 PM ^
UConn has a transitive win over USC:
UConn > BC > Louisville > Wake > Florida St > LSU > Florida > Utah > USC
That said, we'd get there a lot quicker if we kept UCLA on the schedule
November 1st, 2022 at 5:46 PM ^
In 2007, Catawba College had a transitive win over MNC LSU.
Catawba College beat Carson-Newman, Carson-Newman beat Chattanooga, Chattanooga beat Georgia Southern, Georgia Southern beat Appalachian State, The Horror, we beat Florida, Florida beat Kentucky, Kentucky beat LSU.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:37 PM ^
Having taken much math and science at our beloved University, I can say that Newton Gimmick's analysis if flawless and brilliant. At +1 to you, sir!
November 1st, 2022 at 4:39 PM ^
I'm going with UConn is still terrible but maybe slightly less terrible than they looked against Michigan. But still terrible.
Good for them, though. It would be a great story if they somehow accomplished bowl eligibility.
November 1st, 2022 at 6:11 PM ^
It would also show the limitations of fancystats. At the end of the day, Wins should mean something!
November 1st, 2022 at 4:41 PM ^
Don't forget that Clemson jumped us in the polls because they beat Boston College a few weeks ago.
November 1st, 2022 at 5:06 PM ^
This is stolen Opponent Watch valor.
November 1st, 2022 at 5:06 PM ^
If we win the rest of our games we will be Big Ten and National Champions.
November 1st, 2022 at 5:33 PM ^
+1 insightful
November 1st, 2022 at 7:21 PM ^
It seems simple.
Like a five yard Blake Corum dive play.
November 1st, 2022 at 10:19 PM ^
I am not quite sure I am following you. Can you run that by me again.
November 1st, 2022 at 5:25 PM ^
I have between 3-5 reasons to love this topic.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:12 PM ^
You may have between 3-9 reasons before the end of November.
November 1st, 2022 at 5:28 PM ^
Illinois coming out of nowhere to be a fringe top 10 program basically bails out the non conference in my eyes. Only thing that sucks is it is right before OSU. Would have been nice to have Rutgers illinois nebraska then Osu.
November 2nd, 2022 at 9:09 AM ^
Honestly, I don’t mind Illinois being Senior Day this year. We need a smash mouth football game before we play the Bucks, and Bielema’s guys will give us one. I like our chances with how it could play out.
November 1st, 2022 at 5:33 PM ^
Most impressive to me is Maryland is going bowling with 4 games to spare. I'd love to see them give o$u a game, which they could if healthy.
November 1st, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^
And with Illannoy and penn shtate still on the schedule, I don't see #tuckbowlin'.
November 1st, 2022 at 5:36 PM ^
Is UConn a better team than MSU?
People are talking…
November 1st, 2022 at 6:25 PM ^
I was at the UConn game. Yes, they are that terrible.
November 1st, 2022 at 6:48 PM ^
I think UConn is a better team now than they were in September, which isn't that uncommon with teams that have 1st year head coaches. But of course we played them in September so we did play their terrible version.
I think it's just obvious that our schedule has been soft. Even Illinois being much better than expected will be somewhat cancelled out by MSU being much worse than expected.
November 1st, 2022 at 6:53 PM ^
I agree UConn isn't terrible now; they certainly were when we played them. Very well-coached team that has made some big strides. We benefitted from the schedule there. We'll be on the other side of that against Illinois; well-coached team that gets better every week. We'd have looked a lot better weeks 1-3 against them, I'd wager.
November 1st, 2022 at 6:54 PM ^
Don't really get this post besides "UConn isn't abject" - the other surprises work against us as a few teams are doing worse than expected
There are two 6-2 teams and six teams sitting at .500 or below. It's not terrible, but it isn't much defense against "ain't played nobody"
November 1st, 2022 at 7:07 PM ^
Really warms my heart to see MSU slotted between Indiana and CSU.