Interesting Yahoo Sports article on college coaching carousel dropping this year or next

Submitted by TRduke on December 3rd, 2020 at 11:42 AM

Pete Thamel article essentially saying the big changes in coaching could be postponed due to huge buyouts, notable Texas and Michigan, until 2021 at the earliest due to limited revenues in 2020. Coach Harbaugh discussed prominently.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/college-football-hot-seat-where-things-stand-at-texas-and-michigan-030527966.html

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https://sports.yahoo.com/college-football-hot-seat-where-things-stand-at-texas-and-michigan-030527966.html

maizenblue92

December 3rd, 2020 at 11:47 AM ^

Limited revenues is a weak excuse. This is as cheaply as you could possibly make a coaching change. His buyout is under $7 million and Matt Campbell's buyout is ~$5 million. If you extend him his buyout goes up and the coach you poach next year will likely have a buyout higher than $5 million. 

Joined: 01/01/2009

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Don

December 3rd, 2020 at 12:02 PM ^

I'm not convinced firing Harbaugh now is the smartest move, nor do I think Matt Campbell is necessarily the best option to replace him if he was fired.

Comparing Harbaugh's not winning anything at Michigan to Campbell's not winning anything at Iowa State is not an apples-to-apples comparison, though.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 148358

MGoStrength

December 3rd, 2020 at 1:42 PM ^

The man has never won a title.

While true, he has a chance to this year.  Also, consider the difference between UM and Iowa St.  Once is a place that's really hard to recruit kids to over TX, Okla, etc.  The other is a blue blood that practically recruits itself.  Meanwhile, Campbell has his kids playing hard for him and beating teams with more talent meanwhile JH's squad has all but given up and he's losing to teams woefully less talented than his.  It stands to reason if Campbell were at UM he'd be doing better than JH has if he is able to get as much out of UM's talent as he has out of Iowa St's.  If he has any recruiting chops and roster management ability he'll also likely build a more talented roster than JH.  I think there's a good logic to suggest Campbell would be an upgrade when comparing the last stops of each guy.  The major question is if he can handle the pressure that exists to win at UM and compete with OSU on a much larger scale.  

Joined: 07/29/2010

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Michigan Arrogance

December 3rd, 2020 at 4:18 PM ^

You're just so FUCKING obtuse. 

Here's another guy who won NOTHING. At Michigan State a few years ago. (and was at Toledo for one year - tied for the league title).

RECORD, CONF REC, PLACE, RESULT in BOWL

6–5–1     4–3–1     5th L Independence

6–6      5–3      5th L Sun

7–5   4–4     6th    L Aloha

6–6        4–4     6th No Bowl

9–2   6–2    T–2nd  Florida Citrus

 

Some dude at BGSU: couldn't even finish 2nd in his division in the MAC. Utah were the suckers who hired this loser

8–3       5–3         T–3rd (East)

9–3       6–2         3rd (East)

 

A guy who coached at FSU immediately after these records at WVU (indep) won a national title

8–3,

7–4,

8–4  and L Peach,

6–5,

4–7,

9–3 and W Peach Bowl

 

A guy who went to coach at Texas immediatley after this at UNC: He won a national title as well

1–10     1–6   7th

1–10          0–7        8th

6–4–1       3–3–1       5th

7–4          3–4          5th

9–3           5–3          3rd        W Peach

10–3          6–2           2nd            L Gator

8–4         5–3          T–3rd        L Sun  

7–5            4–4          T–5th         W Carquest

10–2           6–2      T–2nd         W Gator

10–1              7–1          2nd        W Gator

 

Bob Stoops' record as a HC before being hired at OU: 0-0

Ryan Day pre- OSU: 0-0

Juwan Howard: 0-0

Joe Paterno: 0-0

 

Your litmus test of winning a title is not highly correlated to future success. 

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 35493

MIMark

December 3rd, 2020 at 3:59 PM ^

I'm in a similar boat. Not that Michigan can't do better but if he is the right hire rather than the shiny attractive coach of the year. I'm kinda interested in Buffalo's coach. Built a D3 power at Wisconsin Whitewater, jumped straight to the MAC, and is easily the conference's top team this year. IMO also the conference's best team last year.

Joined: 05/05/2009

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BoMo

December 3rd, 2020 at 6:37 PM ^

Agree-I'm a bit apprehensive about Campbell precisely because he's this year's up and comer.  How often does each year's up and comer actually pan out?  Too lazy to research but my sense is not often.  Who else?  Have no frickin clue but I'm on the take a big chance with a Partridge type train.

Joined: 12/31/2013

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milhouse

December 3rd, 2020 at 4:30 PM ^

Ummm... I'm not sure if you noticed, but we're not a destination program anymore. We haven't been a consistent program for the last decade plus. We have an extremely demanding fanbase. We're more aligned with Tennessee than Ohio State, I'm not sure who you think would be better that would want to come here. Campbell has turned a traditional bottom feeder around. He's beaten OU and UT. He's poised for a Big 12 championship. He's 40. And he seemingly has no scandals in his past. I'd rather take my chances with Campbell than deal with the stank associated with Urban, Kiffin, or Sarkesian(sp?)

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The Fugitive

December 3rd, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^

Campbell has accomplished far more with much less than Jim has. Jim's only been good with Hoke's players. 

Has Jim beaten any teams of Oklahoma's caliber let alone twice? Nope.

His best finish is a share of the Big East but that includes giving up 62 as a favorite to ohio state. He's managed to keep 1 game vs them in the single digits. Need to be reminded they're all losses by an average of 19 points? Let's keep trotting him out there and hope for something different!

Great argument tho. 

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MGoCarolinaBlue

December 3rd, 2020 at 12:35 PM ^

He hasn't had to go up against anything remotely like today's OSU program at any previous stop -- and none have any of the other names thrown around as replacements.

What you don't seem to understand is that OSU, Alabama, and Clemson are NOT NORMAL. There is no historical precedent for this. There is nothing in the history of football that is remotely comparable to the level of dominance that these programs have achieved and the size of the advantage that they have in talent and recruiting.

"But his record against Wisconsin, against PSU, against MSU!" you will say. Yes, you think the yearly end of year letdown has nothing to do with it? The negativity around the program? The negativity of the fanbase? The down year we had in recruiting, the transfers out, etc you think all of that has NOTHING to do with the fact that everybody in the world knows that in any given season, we aren't going to beat OSU and our goals are not in reach? It affects everything, and if you fire coach Harbaugh and bring in somebody else they are going to have all of the same struggles with it and in short time our toxic, idiot fanbase will be calling to fire the next coach as well.

Joined: 03/19/2013

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ldevon1

December 3rd, 2020 at 1:26 PM ^

I don't necessarily agree with this. The landscape has changed with the playoff. Those USC teams didn't have to play 2 games against the top the top 4 teams in the country. The won a weak PAC 10 and only had to win 1 game, the Championship. Don't get me wrong, those teams were really talented, but they only had 1 tough game a year. No league championship and no playoff to navigate. As good as they were, they only won it once. 

Joined: 09/09/2015

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UMxWolverines

December 3rd, 2020 at 2:05 PM ^

Those USC teams had NFL players galore...how is the rest of the conference relevent to how good they were? They literally finished top 5 seven years in a row with a 6-1 BCS record. 

Also if you think there haven't been dynasties like OSU before you are incredibly mistaken. Nebraska and FSU in the 90s were definitely comparable to current OSU. USC in the 2000s as already mentioned. 

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East German Judge

December 3rd, 2020 at 12:49 PM ^

OMG, the Harbaugh apologists are out in force today.  This is what Jim has brought us in his 5+ years:

  • 0-5 vs OSU
  • 3-3 vs MSU
  • 0 B1G titles, nor even playing in the title game let alone CFP
  • best road win is against #20 Northwestern
  • 1-4 in bowl games
  • 0-15 when Michigan is an underdog
  • 2-12 vs. top 10 teams
  • worst halftime deficit in Michigan stadium history & 2nd worst loss ever at home
  • home loss to an 0-5 team & 4 straight home losses
  • 4th highest paid coach in the country

and you want more of the same, amazing!

Joined: 10/05/2014

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HateSparty

December 3rd, 2020 at 12:58 PM ^

Nobody can honestly argue against your premise.  It is all true in that the ultimate goal is a hill most would not achieve.  The distance the programs have grown apart is tolerable to a small degree considering the facts as they exist with recruiting.  The other issues about let down, negativity and the like are a result of leadership in and around the program, in my opinion.  There are three heads directly responsible for the culture and leadership around the program: Harbaugh, Manuel, Schlissel.  Who has the greatest influence and control is a difficult discussion to prove either way, except we believe the admissions is a hurdle and the product is lacking. If you cannot influence the admissions (if that is an honest and accurate hurdle, I'm not sure), then the coach or AD goes if an outcome different than the current input is desired.

Harbaugh has the greatest influence on the team's success and then that impacts the program's perception which feeds the negativity or squashes it with alumni, fans, recruits, etc.  Harbaugh has failed to stop or change that.  Beat MSU regularly.  Win the top ten games on the road.  Win more than you lose against everyone else, including bowls and then the conversation softens.  I really don't believe OSU gets a coach fired at Michigan.  It's trajectory and competitiveness.  Same with OSU.  I present to you, John Cooper.  Shitty record against Michigan, poor bowl record losing inexplicably to Illinois more than he should, blowing it against inferior teams (hello MSU).  He also churned out talented players and developed them pretty well.   Gee stayed and Cooper left.  Manuel will stay in this situation and Harbaugh goes.

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My Name is LEGIONS

December 3rd, 2020 at 2:18 PM ^

The Michigan OSU rivalry the past 50 years, is a ying-yang relationship... Cannot have one without the other... Our best success was due to taking a few ribs from them in Bo and Mo. We had that same opportunity in 2005, and Bill Martin didn't know the history, when he could have taken Dantonio, to beat Tressel.  And in case you are wondering, this is the source of Dantonio's ire... Martin blew it completely.   We are where are because of him.  We didn't keep up our bargain in the rivalry, replacing the coach the moment he is consistently losing to the other, with the guy with best chance to beat the other. Dantonio beat Tressel a few times and Meyer too, he'd have done well here... and maybe would have lasted a decade, so maybe five years ago, we'd have been on our next coach... maybe its still Harbaugh but at least the depth would be sound and roster filled with Ohio guys.

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Kingpin74

December 3rd, 2020 at 1:09 PM ^

I'm with you on how much of an overall drag the OSU juggernaut is on the program right now. But it's not so much his record against non-OSU teams as how some of those losses have happened. Too many times, they've just come out lifeless and it's cost them even if they battle back. 2017 MSU, 2018 ND, 2019 Wisconsin and PSU, and 2020 MSU come to mind. In my opinion, that's a big red flag on the coaching.

But OSU being the Death Star does put whoever's coaching us in a very tough spot. I can't argue there.

Joined: 05/09/2014

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JFW

December 3rd, 2020 at 3:12 PM ^

We have alot of people wanting Matt Campbell pretty hard. That's fine. I'd prefer we keep Harbaugh and see if he can change. But if it's time for him to go okay. But I think we need to be realistic as to what Campbell brings to the table. And I don't see any real analysis other than 'He's doing well at IS!. 

Ducky. But he's far from perfect. 

The first podcast of the year we had people super happy with Michigan, praising Zordich for doing a great job, happy with Brown's super aggressive defense despite losing some people and lauding Gattis ('I Like our offensive coordinator!' - Brian). Now most of the fan base wants to burn everything down. 

I don't see Matt Campbell coming in here and doing appreciably better than Harbaugh. I don't see him beating OSU. I can easily see him going .500 or worse vs. MSU. He drops games vs. Iowa, Kansas, a down Baylor, etc. that he should arguably win given his defeats of OU. I see no reason to assume he's going to change that much because he came here. 

This fanbase gets too caught up in irrational emotions over scheme and the next guy. That's fine, it's fun to be excited. But if losing games you think you should win burns your soul, and if you think this program is a coach away from being elite, regular invitees to the CFP, and if losing to OSU causes you existential grief, then I pity Matt Campbell if he comes here. Because I don't see that he has the resume or abilities to overcome what we are; or what our obstacles are. We've now seen two coaches (RR and Harbaugh) with better resumes come here and not perform the way our silly fanbase wants. What makes you think Campbell will be different, other than he's just different? 

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maizenbluenc

December 3rd, 2020 at 1:34 PM ^

You are correct. One only has to look around at several “used-to-be’s” to see this is true. No one wants to hear it.

There are two ways out:

1) Hire Urban, Nick or Dabo (which ain’t happening)

2) Cheat like hell in recruiting and hope one year the 5 stars align enough for lightening in a bottle (the LSU way - which ain’t happening)

Because right now if you’re a recruit you want to play for those three teams, and will take the risk of having to transfer if you don’t make the depth chart by Sophomore year.

If we were in the West, then we’d be in a better position like UGA is, gray xcept for the annual crossover game difference. At least we have more breathing room and a shot at the B1G championship in the odd year OSU loses to Penn State.

Joined: 07/21/2009

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FrozeMangoes

December 3rd, 2020 at 2:25 PM ^

UM is closer to OSU than Iowa State is to Oklahoma and yet Campbell has beaten them twice.  PSU keeps it close every year with OSU.  Even this year they kept it around 2 scores all game.  

At his past stops the game hadn't passed Harbaugh by yet.  If you punt on 4th and 2 on the opponents 42 when you have nothing to lose, it is time to move one.  That conservative game management won't get it done.  That is why it appears this team can't handle adversity.  In reality, the coaching staff affords them no chance to come back once they fall behind.  

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JFW

December 3rd, 2020 at 1:07 PM ^

The Jim Harbaugh you're talking about is not the one coaching Michigan today.

 

Agreed. And it's so very sad. What happened? Herbstreit basically called him a coward and the guy who did satellite camps and twitter fights with Pete Feinbaum did... nothing. Hell, he seems sad. 

In my innermost fears, I worry that we might have a bigger culture problem with our University and athletic department. We've now had three coaches falter (though admittedly Harbaugh has had, by far, the most success). RR and Harbaugh both had large behavior changes. The teams from '15 and '16 were tougher, physically and mentally, from what we are seeing now. And Harbaugh was a huge part of that. The issues, and the opacity of the athletic department, don't help to assuage any worries; and just get the fanbase and the media all worked up. 

I wish UM would be honest with itself and make a decision. 

Either settle down and decide to become like Wisconsin. A good to very good but not elite team that won't likely win a national title; but will have lots of wins and some decent ones, if some disappointing losses. That's roughly where we've been the past two years, or a little below that. We might even beat OSU if/when entropy sets in there. Honestly, I'm okay with that. But choose it. 

Or.... go for broke. Set aside academic limits for athletes (keep behavior restrictions. Don't recruit a kid like that one MSU QB recruit, no matter how good he is) and go for the best, most mentally tough athletes you can find. Give them an 'NFL' degree where the goal is to have a guy who can enter the league and get out a few years later with his money and his life intact. Bring in guys like Woodson/Wheatley/Grbac/whomever as guest lecturers. 'Here is how you avoid hangers on....here is how to find a good agent...' 

On top of that, use the NIL legislation that might come down to sell ourselves like hell. 'Come to us kid and you can sell your name and image to the largest fanbase in the nation, we'll give you a contact list.... you can buy Mom a house...'

What I really can't stand is the middle ground. 'We're elite! (we aren't) and we should be just like OSU/Clemson/Bama without doing the same things! Party like it's 1989!' and having people get all bugged because we aren't competing with OSU when they have levelled up and we spent years screwing around patting ourselves on the back about how awesome we are 'WE HAVE A MODERN OFFENSE! WAIT. NOW WE HAVE A COACH THAT WILL WALK TO MICHIGAN!'. If we choose that route by default, by not choosing, we'll just shed Harbaugh to get someone else (Campbell sounds like the one everyone wants) and be pissed when he drops games, loses to OSU, and can't get us into the playoffs. We'll slowly turn into Tennessee. 

Joined: 10/20/2010

MGoPoints: 15285

Cranky Dave

December 3rd, 2020 at 1:46 PM ^

Youre spot on regarding trying to have the best of both worlds. The trajectory of the program isnt good and Im not confident Harbaugh will significantly change that. Having said that its hard to imagine any coach consistently competing with OSU/Bama/Clemson without turning UM into a “professional” team. 

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Ajcoss

December 3rd, 2020 at 1:09 PM ^

Is this Jim Harbaugh? Jay? Jack, that you!?! Nobody would be defending this mess Harbaugh has created unless they are related to him. Campbell is the answer, but if you don’t agree we can agree to disagree. But, then we both can agree it’s  time to move on. As Griese says, ENOUGH IS ENOUGH! 

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JamieH

December 3rd, 2020 at 10:51 PM ^

Meh?  They were 12-1 in his last season, won the Orange Bowl 40-12 over Virginia Tech, and finished ranked #4 in both polls.  It was Stanford's highest final ranking since 1940, and their first 12 win season ever.

That is a hell of a "meh".

Joined: 09/05/2009

MGoPoints: 28331

UMmasotta

December 3rd, 2020 at 12:19 PM ^

Important to note that this is only true of Harbaugh at Michigan. He's inarguably achieved more than Campbell in his career as a coach, when you consider his time at Stanford and the 49ers. Obviously, as Michigan fans, we're only concerned about what Harbaugh has done/not done at Michigan, but it just goes to show that Campbell isn't a sure thing to be better than Harbaugh at Michigan. Harbaugh's resume in 2014 far exceeded Campbell's 2020 resume. 

Joined: 08/18/2011

MGoPoints: 1175

1VaBlue1

December 3rd, 2020 at 12:43 PM ^

How things stood in 2014 is not indicative of where they stand today.  Back in 2014, not one single person in this entire country would have said Campbell would make more sense than Harbaugh to be Michigan's coach.  By any imagination, Michigan made an outstandingly excellent hire, and the results of 2015 and 2016 bore that out.  

Since then, however, comparing the two records shows that Campbell would be the better hire.  Would he have more success than Harbaugh may in 2021?  I dunno - nobody knows.  Will Harbaugh have any success in 2021?  I dunno - nobody knows.  But comparison of results over the last four years show a trend that favors Campbell (and Fickell, for that matter).

What we know is that Harbaugh is no longer a big game winner, nor is he capable winning games as an underdog.  We know that Campbell is capable of both those things.  Our future with Harbaugh is what we currently have - 2018, 2019, 2020, in repeat, ad nauseum.  

I, for one, am willing to take a calculated risk to improve that outlook.

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azee2890

December 3rd, 2020 at 1:57 PM ^

If we are using resumes to equate whether or not a hire is good or not, let's just say there have been much more accomplished coaches fail at Michigan (See Harbaugh and Rich Rod). Michigan, with all the outside pressures and expectations, might just be where good but not great coaches go to die. 

The only thing that gives me some optimism about Campbell is that one of his players said they are playing against 5* players with a 5* mentality. If he can inject that type of culture into Ann Arbor then I'm all for it. But we have been burned before.

Joined: 07/13/2020

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goblue2121

December 3rd, 2020 at 12:36 PM ^

Does Pete Caroll's USC team count? How about NFC championship games? Are we only allowed to focus on Jim's struggles at M? Are we permitted to ask how Cambell lost to Northern Iowa? I feel like folks on here might get slightly butthurt if that were to occur at M. What about struggles against rival Iowa? We just look the other way on those? If we're going to pull the trigger and blow it all up, I'd rather be certain that it's solely a Harbaugh problem. 

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