Interesting Yahoo Sports article on college coaching carousel dropping this year or next
Pete Thamel article essentially saying the big changes in coaching could be postponed due to huge buyouts, notable Texas and Michigan, until 2021 at the earliest due to limited revenues in 2020. Coach Harbaugh discussed prominently.
https://sports.yahoo.com/college-football-hot-seat-where-things-stand-a…
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:25 PM ^
Some NFL team will take a chance, but I think it safe to say Harbaugh's NFL stock is not as high as it was at the end of his SF tenure, or after 2016 at Michigan.
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:32 PM ^
I agree the stock is down vs. those high points, but at least a few teams would easily talk themselves into the idea that Harbaugh is a better NFL than college coach therefore the past 5 years are not indicative of what his success would be in a return to the NFL.
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:23 PM ^
His past five years have had a high winning percentage. It's not like the guy has sucked every year. I'm willing to bet a few NFL teams would be willing to take the risk.
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:07 PM ^
Eh. I’d take anything written by Thamel about Harbaugh with a grain of salt. Not sure exactly how Harbaugh hocused pocused a fly up his ass but he’s had a raging lady boner for him ever since. His more recent articles are actually tamer than those written a year ago, FWIW.
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:01 PM ^
Texas & Michigan have big time donors with lots of money. Don’t see money being an issue unless they want to use it as an excuse.
That could be true at some schools who aren’t elite/big time programs. All the powerhouse brands money is no issue. Texas and Michigan are powerhouse brands.
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:17 PM ^
I couldn’t imagine even if I had the money, casually writing a $15mm check to UofM for them to buy out Harbaugh and his staff. Unless I was the one that had a very large input into the decision to hire him, why would I do that?
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
Same reason people stroked a check to have the AD position named for them. Some people have a lot of money, and with it comes power and prestige.
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:41 PM ^
The assumption you're making here is that the big time donors want Harbaugh out, which none of us can know with certainty.
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:17 PM ^
Donors want to win. They want to pump their chest their school wins. Not saying all want him out, but just because they don’t voice their frustration like Griese doesn’t mean they don’t want it.
December 3rd, 2020 at 3:22 PM ^
I don't disagree with you, but again, that's an assumption. Some donors may very well want graduation rates, maybe they just want their name on a building to leave a family legacy, or maybe they want want to give money to promote diversity hires.
If I'm a multi-million dollar donor I don't think I would consider donating if if was going to some buyout clause or just to supplement a salary of the next hire. I also don't think if I gave the school 15 million dollars, I'd be happy if the average win total went from 9.4 to 10.3. That doesn't seem like a good ROI on charitable money, if one thinks about it in those terms.
Then again, I don't have enough money to be that kind of donor.
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:08 PM ^
Very interesting. The money wouldn't be an issue for Michigan or Texas, but I see the point here.
Something I keep thinking about is whether guys like Matt Campbell or Luke Fickell would even want to bounce to another school amidst a pandemic – even if the job and money is significantly better. Both jobs could be around next year, plus a handful of others.
In Michigan's case, losing a future top candidate elsewhere would be less than ideal, but I'm starting to think it's more likely Harbaugh stays with major staff changes. If the potential hire was more exciting (and maybe it will be) I'd feel different about the situation, but forcing a Matt Campbell hire is starting to make less sense to me.
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:20 PM ^
That's generally been my feeling as well - a lot of the "Matt Campbell feels like a slam-dunk hire" takes feel not unlike the usual revisionist history fanbases do when faced with a new reality. Because if I told you before the season that a 26-25 HC at Iowa St. should replace Jim Harbaugh, my guess is a lot of people would balk at that idea. And part of the reason is that we've seen a lot of hot-shot young coaches move up to bigger programs and struggle - Fleck, Frost, Brohm, etc. in just the Big 10 have underwhelmed even if they've had shots of success. Even Mel Tucker, who has two nice wins this year, his teams haven't looked particularly good or sound in the process, and his recruiting certainly isn't setting the world on fire. So if you're going to make this huge move during a pandemic and with so much uncertainty, I'd like to have a better sense about the guy coming in than what I'm getting from Campbell.
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:52 PM ^
Spot on, IMO.
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:19 PM ^
Most of you have no idea what kind of program Iowa St was before he started. I think most of you need to think of them as Rutgers, that’s who they are. Rutgers competing for Big Ten titles.
December 3rd, 2020 at 2:28 PM ^
I don't disagree with you at all, but I still think it may seem forced during such an uncertain year. I'm having trouble getting excited about any option right now, but that doesn't mean a guy like Campbell is not the best fit/right coach for the job, especially as "home run" hires seem very unrealistic and almost non-existent.
I'm as curious as anyone to see what Michigan does post-Harbaugh – whenever that may be – but I'm just hesitant when it comes to the idea of diving into a new era in the next few weeks.
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:20 PM ^
I don't disagree with anything here, except that I've not seen a single view that says Campbell is a slam-dunk hire. The pervading thought is that he's the best available (a relative term, FWIW), aside from maybe Fickell (good arguments for both, actually) to replace a situation that clearly isn't working at a championship pace.
I believe I represent most of the fanbase in that I was in Harbaugh's camp - solidly - through the Minnesota game. I was probably more solid than most, too. But the MSU game slapped my eyes open. Wisconsin was an embarrassment. OT against Rutger? It's spiraled downhill really fast - and don't blame Covid, every team in the country is dealing with Covid. Looking back, it's been rolling downhill since 2017. The hill just got a little steeper this year.
I don't like the current direction of the program (nobody does). And I don't believe that Harbaugh can fix it - not even with new coordinators. I do think he'll bounce back next year, maybe even with 10 wins. But that's it. It will still include a loss to OSU, and a bowl loss, along with losses against possible Top 20 teams on the road (if not at home) if we get those. That's the ceiling with Harbaugh, and its quite clear.
I'd like a chance for more - and I fully realize that chance comes with some risk.
December 3rd, 2020 at 2:04 PM ^
I don't see any way Harbaugh wins 10 games next year. We are on a downward trajectory. Recruiting is suffering. He's lost the locker room. We can't turn back the clock to 2015.
December 3rd, 2020 at 2:15 PM ^
We need to dispense with this notion of a "slam dunk" hire...it just doesn't exist outside of Urban Myer and maybe Nick Saban.
It's not about getting that slam dunk hire with a 100% guarantee of success. It's about realizing that your current path has failed and isn't going to succeed, so you either continue doing what you already know is failing OR you hire someone else, doing everything you can to choose the best possible candidate available and take a chance on someone new. Because with someone new, you at least have the possibility of succeeding. It may not work out and you may have to keep looking, but better to keep searching than to admit defeat and quit trying.
And let's be real, "succeeding" doesn't mean rising to OSU's level instantly, or even perpetually. That may not be attainable at all here. BUT, you should at least be able to dominate the rest of the conference and win at least 50% of your bowl games...and we can't even manage that with the current regime.
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:38 PM ^
I'm starting to think it's more likely Harbaugh stays with major staff changes.
I suspect this is true. And if true, then my wish would be for someone to come on board with previous head coaching experience who could help guide Harbaugh in making the right CEO-type decisions. His executive decisions over his six-year tenure have been questionable. For example, his decision to go without a named OC in favor of a weird committee approach; or his bringing on NFL buddies like Pep Hamilton; or his taking on positional coaches who either won't recruit or aren't known for recruiting. It just strikes me that Harbaugh needs some guidance in the "big picture / CEO" aspect of being a head coach.
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:03 PM ^
I would love it if this was the case because he could use a lot of help. Whether he wants it or is willing to admit he needs it is another story.
If anything, getting some younger guys on the defensive side of the ball who have great coaching potential and could recruit across the country would be huge. I'm not sure where he falls as a recruiter, but I love the way Jim Leonhard coaches. He's not coming to Michigan, but when it's time to move on from Don Brown, I want to be impressed with who the hire is in the way I am impressed by Leonhard each year.
December 3rd, 2020 at 2:07 PM ^
Isn't that what the head coach of a P5 football team is -- a CEO? If Harbaugh can't handle that aspect of the job, then what does he bring us? It certainly isn't connecting with and inspiring his players. It's not coaching up his QBs. If you admit he needs a CEO to "help" him with his job, then he clearly isn't the guy for the job.
December 3rd, 2020 at 2:45 PM ^
100% accurate – which is why life without Harbaugh seems likely, sooner than later. However, with the potential reality that he is still the head coach next season, it would be great to see him improve the pieces around him. If you can go out and get someone with experience and pair them with guys that are on the rise, it may help him grow and restore some of the fire he's lost. And that alone would be a vast improvement in a world where he's coaching Michigan in 2021.
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:10 PM ^
Easy to say that paying big buyouts is just an excuse until you have to sit in the seat and absorb the media commentary and the optics of being the leaders of those programs with huge budget impacts, personnel reductions and pay cuts across the organization.
It is easy to see hitting a home run hire greatly improves excitement and revenues possibly in 2021, but missing on top targets and having to revert to option 4-5-6, and still having the budget impacts would be an interesting decision to make.
I would have to think there is some consideration to trying to ensure that Option 1 is open and willing to come, and then try to ensure the big donors will back and cover the costs to make the changes.
The other concern would be how many of the big donors want Harbaugh back? That could change the decision process significantly as well.
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:10 PM ^
Remember Tom Herman and his stellar record at Houston?
Who is the best coach for Texas not named Urban Meyer?
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:16 PM ^
The Longhorn message boards at 247 and Rivals beg to differ with that... They are a buzz with "insider" info that Urbz is coming... and at Texas their boosters/donors don't care what the buyout is one of them will cover it for the school they have the oil money down there...
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:43 PM ^
Meyer to Texas would be a very interesting experiment. Texas has everything a program could want to be a major player: fan base, boosters, and a rich recruiting environment in its home state ... in some ways it has more natural advantages than does Michigan. Yet two "can't miss" coaches flamed out there. What's up with that?
So let's assume Meyer goes there and fails to take Texas to the CFP and get championships. What kind of existential crisis would that provoke in the Texas faithful?
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:49 PM ^
They seem pretty confident while still having a head coach for some reason.
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:53 PM ^
This is the same fan base that was convinced Nick Saban was leaving Alabama to take over at Texas. As delusional as New York sports fans convinced LeBron James was leaving Cleveland to play for the Knicks.....
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:29 PM ^
Harbaugh is a perfect example of why you don't make hiring decisions based on resume alone. He's won everywhere he's been. He's had 2 losing seasons as a coach, his first at Stanford and this injury-plagued, depleted-roster, pandemic-year at Michigan. But based on watching him answer press conference questions, I have no doubt he'd fail any head coaching job interview. He can't answer questions cogently. He hems and haws, speaks in tired, worn-out cliches, and sits there with a blank stare on his face. There's something cognitively wrong.
Now, does that mean Michigan should spend $20M on buyouts to improve our prospects for future win/loss records? Or do we surround Jim with the best coordinators we can get and have him delegate more authority? Is Gattis really the best OC we can get? His resume wasn't that impressive, and the last 2 years hasn't improved my opinion of him as an OC or a leader. Has the game passed Don Brown by, or has he been severely hampered by injuries and poor recruiting? These are the questions Warde has to be asking himself.
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:20 PM ^
The Gattis offense is just schizophrenic. Speed in space vs. Mud. Every time I look at it so dependent on QB play I remember sitting at a bar and watching Michigan's offense be effective with John Navarre because we had an honest to God run game and execution we could hang our hats on. Maybe he's the guy, maybe not. But we've yet to see speed in space with any consistency.
Brown... I just don't know. It seems like his defense would be 100% better with D tackles but he never seems to make that a priority.
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:31 PM ^
"The Gattis offense is just schizophrenic."
That's not what schizophrenic means. (To the point, it's not synonymous with "multiple personality disorder.")
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:44 PM ^
Okay. It's radically inconsistent in both playcalling and execution.
Now, this year sucks with attrition and injuries, but he didn't set the world on fire last year either.
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:33 PM ^
SalvatoreQuattro is my new favorite terrible poster.
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:42 PM ^
The most important aspect for Michigan that this article completely ignores is that Harbaugh is the only coach in the Power 5 who has less than 2 years remaining on his deal. There is simply no way a coach can be allowed to enter into the final year of a contract and still be able to recruit.
So Michigan doesn't have a choice to make some changes and keep Harbaugh, or look for someone new. They have a choice to extend Harbaugh's contract with what will be a huge deal, or look for someone new. We either fire him or commit to Harbaugh long term, there is no middle ground on this. He's not going to take a small deal.
In fact, I'd bet it would be a historic deal if they decide to extend him, something like 6 or 7 years $50-60 Million. Now you can make an argument he should be given another year, but I don't think anyone here thinks he deserves a massive deal this off season.
And his buyout is $6.2 Million right now and that goes down after the season. So basically nothing.
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:06 PM ^
It seems like there is a middle ground. We offer a 1-year extension indicating we are unwilling to sign a long-term deal in the current revenue environment. We will then consider a longer-term deal once we have more clarity on future revenues after we see how next year plays out. Harbaugh can either accepts this and coach for his job next year or he can leave in which case we don’t have to pay a buyout. If he decides to quit, we can blame it all on him and not get tagged with spending huge dollars to fire and hire a coach when the university and the athletic department are bleeding money.
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:22 PM ^
No coach in America would sign a 1 year extension, that is the same thing as firing him, only more underhanded. I don't think we'll treat him like that.
For the record, I want him out, I think another year with him and things will get really ugly and the program will be damaged.
I also think though that they're more likely to sign him to a long term deal than fire him although I go back and forth on that.
December 3rd, 2020 at 2:01 PM ^
I really don't see how one can make a reasonable argument that he deserves another year after this colossal meltdown of a season. COVID be damned, Harbaugh has utterly, completely, and holistically failed this football program. You can't out-recruit the entire conference, sans OSU, and then get embarrassed constantly on the football field. There's simply zero valid excuses for that. And guess what, every other single team has had to deal with COVID complications this year, including a Wisconsin team that basically sat in their dorms for 3 weeks and STILL murdered us on the field.
Harbaugh has simply lost the team at this point and I don't see how he wins them back. What on earth do they have left to believe in from this coaching staff? What on earth would one more year of this shit show do for the program? I realize that giving Harbaugh one more year isn't even remotely the point of your post, and I'm not saying that it is, but at this point, with one year left on his contract, they'd be insane to give him an extension. Warde would basically be committing the program to another 5-7 years of embarrassment on the field.
We might as well take a chance on a new hire because at least then we'd have the possibility of maybe accomplishing something. The current coaching staff has already failed and died. Build a coffin for it and put some pennies on its eyes cause this stiff ain't breathing.
December 3rd, 2020 at 2:22 PM ^
Brown's gimmick defense is the issue, not Harbaugh... you want Harbaugh with a solid DC...remember when we had Durkin. Brown and Nua both probably need to go... and maybe its time for Jay to go to NFL, and use that extra coach on defense.
December 3rd, 2020 at 2:35 PM ^
Only Brown and not Harbaugh’s O huh? Results say differently.
msu - 24
indiana - 21
wisc - 11
psu - 17
4 of last 5 games (others Rutgers in OT). In today’s college football need to score 25+ to win.
Must be because we have no QB in year 6? Must be Gattis? come on stop this nonsense it isn’t Harbaugh.
December 3rd, 2020 at 2:53 PM ^
Are you forgetting that Brown's defense is the only part of this team that kept it winning over the last four years? The offense hasn't changed since 2017 - it's been shooting itself in the foot every year - 2017, 2018, 2019, and again in 2020. Yeah, the defense has totally fallen off the cliff this year, and it's been trending down in that time frame, but it is the one unit that kept this team in games since 2016.
I agree that Brown's time to go is now, because his defense has trended down in 2018, 2019, and 2020. But to place 100% blame on him for the last 4 years is utter bullshit. The offense has been consistently inconsistent and bad in each of those four years. And it won't get better with a new OC - we have three different offensive brain trusts and schemes to prove that in the last four years.
December 3rd, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^
And from what I've read his assistants are out in January. And Manuel himself is out in March unless he renews.
Michigan has to pull the trigger sooner than later.
December 3rd, 2020 at 12:59 PM ^
Pete Thamel is guessing. He's also kinda a douche.
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:03 PM ^
While I agree in general with the premise of this article, I generally avoid reading anything written by anyone at Yahoo.
Also, I'm not sure that I agree with his take on Texas in this situation. If Texas is serious about making a run at Meyer, their time is now. They have the booster money to make it happen, even if it includes the dead money of a buyout.
I don't think Meyer is going to Texas but if Texas is serious, they need to shoot their shot now.
Michigan on the other hand is going to ride out Harbaugh's contract and either pray for a miracle in a reversal of fortunes or just accept the recruiting problem that comes with not renewing and replacing him with a new coach after expiration of said contract.
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:06 PM ^
"There’s virtually no NFL market for Harbaugh, even with seven or eight jobs open."
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:20 PM ^
The longer you hear silence, the more I think Harbaugh will be retained.
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:52 PM ^
I sway both ways due to info we have. I think the more silence adds to parting ways at end of season. I can’t imagine they wouldn’t add the extension now or Warde/Harbaugh say we have agreed to a longer deal. They can’t just play this out and go into next year with no deal can they!?! How would any recruit commit. With that said, feel like we would hear more recruits looking to leave or not sign in a few weeks if Harbaugh was out. Worley only one I know. Missing any? We gotta think he’s telling them the latest info when they ask. They gotta know much more than 99% of us on here.
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:24 PM ^
Sounds like the best time to do it IF we can afford to do it, considering we may be the highest profile job available with little other competition.
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:29 PM ^
$$$ is not an issue for Michigan , period. These salaries come from several sources that are not low because of the pandemic.
If you do it now, it's the cheapest route too regardless. Signing him to a huge extension and then firing him next year or the year after will cost several times more on his buyout.
December 3rd, 2020 at 2:05 PM ^
100%. Now is the time.
December 3rd, 2020 at 2:11 PM ^
There are reports that he's completely lost the locker room and it's a lot of chaos right now. Those are the signs there is no coming back. Now is 100% the best time to change.