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+1, Insightful

+1, Insightful

How many years have those…

How many years have those guys had as starters? That's the difference, IMO, not the number of throws in games.

JJ probably throws it as much in practice as Bo Nix, and they probably see plenty different situations, variations of coverage, etc.

If Michigan was throwing 5-10 more attempts per game, how many more throws does it add up to over the course of the season, and how significant is that number of in game throws relative to an entire season of practice? I'm not seeing the logic behind that argument.

I think our run/pass ratio…

I think our run/pass ratio was already a lot more balanced than people think, after filtering out snaps where Michigan is in "kill clock and end the game" mode.

I think your point about …

I think your point about "experience" is way off the mark.

JJ goes to practice, watches film, studies the playbook, does drills to work on his mechanics, probably the same amount as other QBs with a similar number of years starting.

There may be something small to be said for experience in live game situations, but if anything, a perceived lack of experience there would actually be a positive as far as the NFL is concerned, because it would just mean that he's already been highly successful without even coming close to his ceiling yet.

The only really relevant thing to consider about the number of passing attempts in games, is whether it's so low that his good stats could just be a statistical mirage due to the nature of randomness and low sample sizes.

More reps throwing in games…

More reps throwing in games does mean scouts have more certainty that the success is sustainable, that what they're seeing on film is the "real" JJ.

That said, JJ should have a roughly similar number of practice reps to other players with the same amount of experience -- it's not like he has less experience throwing the ball, it's just that the lower sample size of throws on film reduces the certainty that the film is an accurate representation of his true talent.

Secondly, there is more to evaluate than just game film. There is a reason they do all the drills at the combine, interviews with the player, etc.

I find it hard to believe that a scout could evaluate all of that data and come away feeling significantly more unsure about JJ, relative to the amount of baseline uncertainty that exists when evaluating any player.

...it's not really much of a…

...it's not really much of a deterrent if the individual has a Whose Line Is It Anyway? attitude towards their internet points

but he didn't have enough…

but he didn't have enough targets!

but his production!

-- fantasy football enjoyers that think raw stats are more important than film

I think this is 100% correct

I think this is 100% correct

Did you actually read the OP…

Did you actually read the OP or are you just reacting to the title and you assumed the rest?

I support and encourage people changing their opinion when presented with new evidence. It is essential.

I also support and encourage people to be less certain of things in the first place when we don't have all of the evidence. This to me is a big part of the problem.

Do I defend Warde? Defend him from what? No, I'm not defending him from well-argued, evidence-based criticism, which many on this board are capable of presenting in a calm and level-headed manner. Yes, I am defending him from ridiculous hyperbole, and there's an awful lot of that going around, too.

Do I think Warde is the right person for the job? I lean towards maybe no. I'm not certain, though (these are magic words, you should all try them sometime). I think the strongest argument in favor of firing Warde is probably that he has failed to get out in front of these narratives, which is still his responsibility even when some of the narratives don't make a whole lot of sense. That is still creating negative sentiment around the program which itself can affect outcomes.

Yes, the infallible masses…

Yes, the infallible masses of the mgoboard should make the decisions, because we have a great track record with that.

After all, only popular, broadly held beliefs and opinions can be correct and those should be the only perspectives that are permissible to express. Who doesn't love a good echo chamber where sycophants get rewarded for groupthink?

Now, where is Hotel Putingrad?

As I stated in the OP that…

As I stated in the OP that you did not read, I'm not here to discuss Warde's job performance, or whether or not Warde should be fired. I think those are valid topics, I'm simply not interested.

What I am interested in SPECIFICALLY is whether the fans blaming Warde for Harbaugh leaving are the same people that wanted Harbaugh fired in 2020.

So far, there have been a small number that owned up to it, but I can count them on one hand yet there are over a hundred responses to this thread. These numbers don't quite seem to add up to me.

+1, insightful

+1, insightful

Didn't that guy even say…

Didn't that guy even say publicly that he didn't want the Michigan job, and then go 7-6 in the Big 12 the following year?

Why Matt Campbell didn't want a raise of several millions of dollars to come to Michigan is an informative exercise that is best left to the reader.

I'm not perfect -- I thought…

I'm not perfect -- I thought firing Hoke was a mistake because I didn't think we were going to get Harbaugh, and then what was plan B? Obviously I got that one wrong.

As for whether or not we can move on, that depends on whether everyone continues to have strong emotional "the sky is falling!" reactions to every single bad thing that happens. If people start being more thoughtful and curious then we should absolutely we should move on.

If people can't do that, maybe they should be reminded every once in a while.

If Michigan loses on the road against OSU's NFL roster of mercenaries next year, will you be saying that Moore can't get it done, it's time to move on, etc?

I've mostly held my tongue about the people that wanted Harbaugh fired, because I've just been enjoying these last three beautiful, brilliant football seasons. In retrospect, maybe it wouldn't hurt to rub it in a bit.

Not only was the team not…

Not only was the team not allowed to have in person practices; Michigan also had one of the youngest rosters in the country that year, which means the lack of practice time was magnified.

That Wisconsin loss was…

That Wisconsin loss was particularly brutal because of how inevitable the outcome seemed every time they handed the ball off.

Anyway, I share your concerns about how quickly one subset of fans is going to turn on Moore the very moment we face any kind of adversity.

I think there is a lot of evidence suggesting that Moore is an outstanding coach. A poster on here was saying how their son played for him before he came to Michigan and was absolutely effusive about him. Jim Harbaugh has endorsed him, which is also unsurprising, and should give everyone a lot of optimism. The players all want him, which is maybe the most telling thing. I still get inspired thinking about the story of the first meeting he had with the OL as their new coach, where he locked the doors and brought everyone together, and said the turnaround has to start right here and nobody else can make it happen.

I hope that we are patient, too. A lot of factors go into winning and losing football games other than the direct decisions made by the head coach. Some of those factors are totally outside of control, even. Sometimes, wrong decisions get made, but lessons are learned and those wrong decisions don't get repeated.

That's fair criticism.
As I…

That's fair criticism.

As I said, I'm not defending him or saying that he's good at his job. I tried to make that clear but I'm not particularly surprised to see many people jumping to that conclusion either.

I think a few of them just read the title of the thread and assumed the rest without actually reading it.

I am still interested in knowing what percent of people will come forward and say "I wanted Harbaugh fired in 2020. I was wrong, and I'm glad Warde didn't listen to me." Which doesn't make Warde a good AD by any means.

I think it's healthy to admit when we've been wrong in the past, and particularly so at a time like this when emotions are running high.

I don't get it right all the time either -- I thought firing Hoke was a bad move, because I didn't think we were getting Harbaugh up until the point when it actually happened. I thought there's no way he'd willingly deal with recruiting, the NCAA, and all the other BS involved in college coaching.

If you look deeply, it's not…

If you look deeply, it's not really a thread about Warde. It's more about this board and many of the characters who frequent it.

I agree with you on all…

I agree with you on all points.

Regarding 2016, I think Chesson getting tackled by that DB while the refs did nothing is even worse than the bad spot.

Anyway, it's an oddly shaped ball and it tends to bounce in unpredictable ways. I wish more fans would think about the nature of random events, and consider whether outcomes are due to randomness or due to systemic problems that are likely to re-occur.

Well, he DID do something…

Well, he DID do something. He cut Harbaugh's pay in half. Doing nothing would have been better than that, I think.

Still think Harbaugh is coaching the Chargers next year regardless. He wants to win Super Bowl, and the fact that he can do so without recruiting or dealing with bullshit from the NCAA and the B1G probably makes it even more appealing.

Good on you for admitting it…

Good on you for admitting it, that's the first step.

For me, the fact that Aidan Hutchinson returned for 2021, and then seeing the positive emotions as he and Coach were screaming in each other's faces after the Nebraska victory, confirmed that I had gotten in right.

I agree with this.
But oh…

I agree with this.

But oh man, can you imagine the tantrums that would have followed?

Actually now that I think about it, the tantrums probably would have been more or less the same regardless.

You are a reasonable person…

You are a reasonable person and you have my respect.

We are on the same page…

We are on the same page about that, then.

Did you have an opinion about the pay cut at the time when it happened? To me, it always seemed like a mistake.

I still think there's a good chance that Jim would be coaching in the NFL next year regardless.

Do you think that…

Do you think that celebrating the historic milestone of Michigan hiring its first black head coach, means that said coach was hired for the color of his skin?

Sherrone Moore just coached Michigan to arguably the most important win over Ohio State in program history. Is that not competent enough for you?

If Jim goes to the NFL, it…

If Jim goes to the NFL, it will be because

1. He finds a situation where he'll be given full roster control to build the kind of team he wants to win with, AND

2. He believes enough of the right pieces are in place already to build a Super Bowl winning team

Jim has the track record to demand those things and can afford to be very selective, but #1 is still asking A LOT as far as most team owners are concerned, while #2 further narrows the number of opportunities that he would seriously consider.

With these parameters in mind, it makes total sense for Jim to approach this as "I want and expect to most likely be coaching Michigan again next season, but I want to leave the door open just in case my (other) dream job materializes."

And frankly, he has the bargaining power in this situation. From the athletic department's position, it probably looks like the highest upside course of action is to bet on the unlikelihood of Jim finding the specific, narrowly-defined type of NFL situation he's interested in pursuing. What alternative do they have -- fire the coach that just won Michigan's first outright national championship since the 1940s over contractual details, starting over from scratch effectively, OR simply wait out the NFL interest knowing that you've still got Sherrone Moore as a successor in the off chance that an NFL team is willing to give Jim exactly what he wants?

Another way of looking at it is that if Jim is being this demanding in his contract negotiations with the university, he's going to be similarly uncompromising when it comes to discussing opportunities with NFL owners. Think back to his Vikings interview where he supposedly wasn't offered the job, and all the other interviews where the story ends up being that the job was discussed and ultimately wasn't offered. These teams aren't going to make an offer that they already know the candidate is going to reject. In these conversations, it must quickly become apparent that Jim has a specific list of demands he wants the owners to agree to, they'll ask if he's willing to compromise in terms of what he's asking for, i.e. "would you accept the job if we give you X and Y but not Z?". Jim replies that he wouldn't. "Ok, then thanks for your interest but we aren't offering the job." "Ok, good luck with your coaching search and call me if your situation changes."

It's horrible PR for an organization to make an offer for a high profile position like NFL head coach only for the candidate to very publicly decline the offer, so offers don't get made unless there is strong alignment between both parties and a sense that they will agree to terms. This approach allows these organizations to save face by saying "we didn't offer the job to Jim Harbaugh" rather than "after hearing what we were and weren't willing to do to bring him here, Jim Harbaugh turned us down."

My father and I have a good…

My father and I have a good relationship today, but it wasn't always the case. There was once a time when our mutual interest in Michigan Football felt like the only thing we had in common, the only topic about which we could have a conversation that wasn't doomed to eventually become a shouting match.

I'm glad that you started figuring out some of those differences and misunderstandings, and that no matter what happens in the future, circumstances aligned in the present for you to watch Michigan win it all, with the same people who were there in those simpler days in which your Michigan fandom had its genesis.

Anyway, I'm glad you wrote this, as I really enjoyed reading it and I found plenty to which I could relate. Cheers, and Go Blue!

Minter's dad was a long time…

Minter's dad was a long time college coach, and the two of them are coaching together right now, which is pretty cool and shouldn't be taken for granted.

Minter has also been mostly a college coach in his career, unlike Mike MacDonald.

I have no idea where this "Minter = NFL guy" meme came from, but.... [citation needed]

This is the dumbest meme. Do…

This is the dumbest meme. Do you really think that NFL scouts care more about # of targets than they do about physical attributes, route running ability, catch rate, elusiveness, etc?

I think a lot of people were…

I think a lot of people were hate watching Alabama. Whole bunch of folks are sick of the SEC and want to see a non SEC champion for a change.

Now that it's Michigan vs. Washington in the final though, these 3rd party fans will mostly cheer for Washington / against Michigan.

The idea that you need to…

The idea that you need to rack up a bunch of individual stats and "show out" to get drafted as a WR seems pretty dumb to me.

It reminds me of my friend who is big into fantasy football and insists that Kelce is a better TE than even a healthy Gronk in his athletic prime (because after all, you don't get fantasy points for blocking). As in, when I had this conversation with him, blocking wasn't even on his radar as something you would look at when comparing players.

Anyway, somebody needs to tell these kids that NFL coaches aren't dumb; if you have the talent, they will draft you, even if you play for a run heavy college offense.

I said all along that the …

I said all along that the "Fire Harbaugh!" brigade was overreacting and creating dumb narratives out of small sample sizes. Never wavered.

Therefore, I reserve the right to make fun of the broader public for this kind of stuff and give the rest of you some occasional well deserved ribbing.

This is my narrative, which I have lovingly crafted from a sample where I am 1-0 against the chicken littles of the world, and I'm sticking to it.

FSU scheduled LSU and…

FSU scheduled LSU and Florida in their nonconference and went undefeated, so evidently the committee doesn't give a damn who you schedule

Not only is FSU undefeated,…

Not only is FSU undefeated, they also beat two SEC teams in their non-conference games

OP clearly is too young to…

OP clearly is too young to know what happened to Mike Hart in Lloyd Carr's final game after the announcers started raving about a certain statistic, which is why you NEVER bring this up

Mustard base is not even top…

Mustard base is not even top 2 among Carolina barbecue styles lol

IIRC, both SP+ and FEI seek…

IIRC, both SP+ and FEI seek to measure efficiency, but FEI considers efficiency per drive/possession while SP+ looks at efficiency on a per-play basis.

Both systems however consider efficiency in terms of scoring.

It would be interesting to find some way to measure instead the per-possession change in win% probability as computed from the game state at the beginning and end of each drive.

What that would do, which these current measures aren't doing, is incorporate the value of a drive that burns clock while leading, even if it doesn't result in points. It would also properly weight the difference between a drive that gets 7 in 2 plays vs. a drive that gets 7 while burning half of the 3rd quarter.

I don't think he's gone for…

I don't think he's gone for any NFL team that offers.

I think he won't consider it unless he gets an offer from a team that is positioned to win now, or at least a lot of draft capital + the offer includes roster control. NFL owners and front offices are notoriously unwilling to do this. Basically the stars would have to align.

Harbaugh is an elite coach…

Harbaugh is an elite coach because of program culture, player development, the staff he has built, game planning, and all those things that take place during the offseason and week to week.

This isn't Madden, it's real football, and Michigan has a dominant team.

When we win the game this…

When we win the game this year, OSU is going to have an absolute meltdown.

They are riding an emotional high right now. They think Stalions is why they got beat last 2 years. They think Harbaugh being out for a couple hours when he still coaches the team all week, is a much bigger deal than it actually is.

The reality is that this game is played by the players, and Michigan is about to have more players drafted than any team ever, and compares favorably to 2021 Georgia in SP+ right now.

OSU fans do not comprehend this. Should they fire Day when they lose? Objectively, no. But they are not that smart.

Beat Maryland. Go Blue.

Beat Maryland. Go Blue.

We have bigger goals this…

We have bigger goals this season. Or post season I should say.

We didn't quit. We punted. Our goals are right in front of us still.

Bang me
Oops, I mean "bet"

Bang me

Oops, I mean "bet"

(A posbang thread would be perfect right now -- fuck it, why not!)

Sherrone Moore will make…

Sherrone Moore will make history when Michigan beats the buckeyes on Nov 25th.

Michigan has a veteran team with tons of NFL talent and, even more important, an abundance of player leadership and the will to win.

OSU's deranged fans will have no ability to comprehend nor cope with this, and will demand to part ways with third base, which can destabilize their program, hurt their recruiting, and shift the balance of power for years to come.

Whether fairly or not, the potential reward for winning this game just got even sweeter.

GO BLUE

Fuck that. Chlamydia and…

Fuck that. Chlamydia and Eucalyptus leaves must have addled your brain my marsupial friend. Support the players. It means the world to them. Nothing else matters.

Go Blue!

The 15 points they scored…

The 15 points they scored against us was the most of anybody we've played this season. And it required multiple risky 4th down conversions, lol.

We ran for over 200 yards at…

We ran for over 200 yards at over 5 ypc against the top rated rushing defense in the country.

The entire season to this point appears to have been coaches working on the passing game and on diversity in the running game.

I suppose we were always capable of turning the dominant ground game back on when it came time to do so.

It feels like this team can really beat OSU for a 3rd straight year and compete for the national title.

It's gotta be Dudek, right?

It's gotta be Dudek, right?

Maybe his point is that…

Maybe his point is that anybody with an agenda can make up some total bullshit and say it's from "anonymous sources"

"Penn State doesn't throw…

"Penn State doesn't throw downfield" is going to be "Michigan doesn't run the QB"

Frames is gonna try to beat us with our own tricks