How do you think this affects 12-team CFP?

Submitted by MichiganiaMan on December 3rd, 2023 at 1:28 PM

Despite the narrative that the expanded playoff fixes our problems, I suspect today’s final four decision changes the calculus for almost everyone involved. Specifically, I could imagine every AD outside of the Power 2 colluding to set a cap for the number of teams each conference can send to the CFP. Perhaps a maximum of three per conference.

Thoughts?

schreibee

December 3rd, 2023 at 8:02 PM ^

2000 Michigan was loaded on offense - maybe the best of the Carr teams.

But they were not good on D. At all. They may well have beaten 1 team with a great game from Henson & A Train. But they wouldn't have won 3 games against increasingly stronger opponents. 

mbrummer3

December 3rd, 2023 at 1:46 PM ^

I mean cap at 3?  You would be leaving out Penn State Oregon from the big 10 (was michigan osu)

SEC would leave out Missouri LSU  

maybe cap at 5,  and at that point there's no point anyway

Ghost of Fritz…

December 3rd, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^

In my ideal CFB world conference size would be capped at 12 (maybe 14) schools, conferences would remain regional, there would be 5 power conferences of roughly equal quality, there would be no conference championship games, and there would be an 8 team playoff with a cap of two per conference.  All first and second round games played on campus, with higher seed choosing their opponent.   Final played at rotating outdoor stadiums (Rose Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Soldier Field etc).   

 

Jordan2323

December 3rd, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^

Hell, I hate the auto group of 5 inclusion into the CFP. Part of me thinks they should cap the conferences at a certain number as well but you might have year where one conference just dominated and should get more teams in. Short answer, 4 or 12, there will be controversy. 

NittanyFan

December 3rd, 2023 at 1:59 PM ^

Zero.  Won't affect it at all.

If we had a 12-team playoff/invitational this year, FSU wouldn't get a bye but they'd still be a #5 seed and get a HOME game (and some sweet sweet sweet extra $$$$$$$$, an administrator's favorite thing) against SMU (or Liberty).  They'd be fine with that - they're in the bracket.

As regards a cap, neither the Big Ten or SEC would be on board with that.  Non-starter.

Goblue228

December 3rd, 2023 at 2:00 PM ^

Needs to be a rule that p4 undefeated teams are guaranteed a playoff spot. This flies in the face of 100 years of cfb that an undefeated team can’t be a national champion. It’s always been the most important criteria 

brad

December 3rd, 2023 at 2:03 PM ^

The thing is, neither FSU nor Alabama are a clearly top shelf team this year.  The original BCS would have selected Michigan vs. Washington and that would have been considered fair and correct.

With four teams, sure we're arguing about #5, but it's less important because Michigan or Washington were not left out.  The rest should be fodder for those two (not saying they will be, but should be).  We'll see how it plays out this year, but all expanding beyond four teams is going to do is take importance off of the late-Nov/early-Dec games and add it to the late-Dec/early-Jan games.

BlueMk1690

December 3rd, 2023 at 2:21 PM ^

The BCS was basically toast when they left Auburn out in 2004. That's when the SEC hype machine as we know it today really sprung into action. The playoff was basically introduced to ensure the SEC champion would always get the chance to play for the national title.

willirwin1778

December 3rd, 2023 at 2:13 PM ^

I think the big change is the consequences of the debate between 11 and 12 vs. 13 and 14, although entertaining, has a much smaller impact on the overall tournament. 

Good riddance to the BCS and the 4 Team Playoff.  The people, somehow amazingly and shockingly qualified to be in charge, and come up with those systems, probably weren't qualified to tie their own shoes.  

swalburn

December 3rd, 2023 at 2:16 PM ^

I think there are basically two conferences and everyone else.  They need to get rid of autobids and just get the best teams.  You are going to have some Big 10/SEC teams that have some losses at the end of the year that are going to deserve to be in the playoff.  They are probably going to beat each other up.

TheJuiceman

December 3rd, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^

They need to simply determine a set of criteria for playoff teams, just like the NFL does. All this arbitrary bullshit just opens things up for Bawse Hawg and the guys to put their country thumbs on the scale, and it needs to stop. 

Michfan777

December 3rd, 2023 at 2:32 PM ^

This.

They need to make a flowchart of what is considered and go down the list until the bracket is filled out objectively.

  • Head To Head Record
  • Common Opponent Record
  • Winning Conference
  • Conference W-L Record
  • Conference Margin Of Victory
  • Record vs Designated Rivals
  • Home Record
  • Away Record

Ir do a football version of the quad system in the NCAA selection for Basketball.

BlueMk1690

December 3rd, 2023 at 2:35 PM ^

The set criteria would be the playoffs is the conference champions of the FBS subdivision. Nothing subjective about it anymore. It would 100% be possible to have this system already.

But no-one would like it. People wouldn't wanna see a warm-up round of Boise State vs Liberty and Troy vs Miami(OH) in the wild card round and then see Michigan vs Liberty, Washington vs Troy, FSU vs Texas, Bama vs SMU in the first round.

Ratings would be lower, there'd be less money, so the networks would hate it. SEC fans more than anyone would hate it, but B1G fans probably not far behind.

NFG

December 3rd, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^

Eventually an SEC team will have an injury to a QB during the season, and the committee better not over look that, and send that team down the fucking list....

Solecismic

December 3rd, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^

What does "conference" mean anymore? There will be so few common games within the new 18-school format. Ties will be broken by national rankings where there isn't a head-to-head game, and there will be even more reluctance to schedule challenging out-of-conference opponents.

The committee likely realizes this, and including Alabama over Florida State isn't so much about Florida State's injury issue (they rose to the occasion and did what they needed to do to win after that) but to reward Alabama for risking (and losing) by scheduling Texas.

Maybe that's just it right there - they realize schedules will become even more diluted and uneven and they want to signal that if you're counting on sliding into those 7-11 spots with a 10-2 record and no strength of schedule, think again. (12 is reserved for the Liberty or what-have-you that emerges from the undercard completely untested).

Alton

December 3rd, 2023 at 2:33 PM ^

Here's the fun thing--the rules they have for the 12-team format just don't work in the superconference era.  The format next year will be 6+6 (i.e., the best 6 conference champions and 6 at large teams.

So the 6 best conference champions in order would be Michigan (Big Ten), Texas (SEC), Florida State (ACC), Arizona (Big 12), Liberty (CUSA), SMU (AAC).

The next 6 best teams in order would be Washington (Big Ten), Alabama (SEC), Georgia (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Oregon (Big Ten), Missouri (SEC).

So the teams get ranked in order but the top 4 must be from the conference champions list:

#1 Michigan v winner (#9 Oregon at #8 Ohio State)
#4 Arizona v winner (#12 SMU at #5 Washington)
#3 Florida State v winner (#11 Liberty at #6 Alabama)
#2 Texas v winner (#10 Missouri at #7 Georgia)

Which is...stupid.  Washington practically gets a bye to the semifinals because they lose the hypothetical Big Ten championship to Michigan, while Big Ten champion Michigan has to beat a very good team in the quarterfinals.

I don't think people realize how dumb the new format is going to be.

rice4114

December 3rd, 2023 at 2:51 PM ^

Picture this. After 15 weeks FSU looks 4 spots better than Bama. Then one week later FSU wins their conference and beats a solid Louisville team. Now in the 16th week Bama moves up 4 spots and FSU moves down. Good god what the fuck was the sense of the first 15 weeks. 

rice4114

December 3rd, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^

ESPNs eye test matters more than anything. Even if Bama lost that 24-21 to two win Arkansas we all know they are better than FSU. Just let ESPN and a large portion of this board supersede wins and losses with their eye tests. 

Blue Ninja

December 3rd, 2023 at 2:58 PM ^

The real game thats been played for many years is the ranking not of top teams but of lower teams in conferences. Specifically this year how Tennessee and Clemson remained ranked in the CFP, especially Tennessee as bad as they played toward the end of the year. All the comparisons of how well teams did against top 25 comes into play at that point. The thing is the whole system is based on opinion and subjectives. As long as teams continue to get the benefit of the doubt based on previous seasons for their rankings the system will never be completely unbiased and will benefit some over others.

MGlobules

December 3rd, 2023 at 3:03 PM ^

More cynicism. More eventual capitulation to corruption. Unless new rules are imposed from above somewhere, history suggests, everyone capitulates to the logic of a bad system. A lot of ugly--bigger ugly than this--tends to work that way.

Big House Fair

December 3rd, 2023 at 3:24 PM ^

For me, all it does is take away the excitement of the regular season.  The only thing that remains the same is the bitching about who did or didn't get in the playoffs. And, sadly The Game becomes a game. I'm old school, but I would rather see the old bowl system. 

treetown

December 3rd, 2023 at 4:27 PM ^

We'll see autobids like in the NCAA basketball tournaments, then it is wide open.

They'll need to rewrite the selection rules so that the autobids can't be dismissed because the team wins ugly.

 

M-Dog

December 3rd, 2023 at 4:30 PM ^

The 12 team CFP does not "fix" these problems, it moves them down the food chain to where they matter a lot less.

Team #13 is going to be disappointed and angry for being left out, but nobody is going to be very concerned that a team that could be legitimately win it all is being left out.

   

Red is Blue

December 3rd, 2023 at 4:32 PM ^

This is why it should have been an 8 team playoff with no byes.  With 12, there is a pretty big difference between being in the top 4 or not.  

The last team in / first team out will always be a controversy (4, 8, 12... Teams).  But they'll also have a last team with a bye, first team without controversy.

turtleboy

December 3rd, 2023 at 5:55 PM ^

I think going from 4 to 12 was a big mistake. Putting half the ranked teams in means not only do the undefeated teams make it, but all the one loss, and all the two loss teams get in, too. They went from all or nothing football, to the ncaa tourney in one step. Strength of schedule, and even multiple losses don't matter now. Every team with a pulse makes it, and it adds extra games, that will push teams to playing smaller schedules, or resting starters. Eliminates the weight of the conference championships, and with the move to superconferences we could end up having multiple rematches. 6 would've been perfect. 12 is just dumb, imho, but the cfp made a grab for the money. 

Mgopioneer

December 3rd, 2023 at 8:47 PM ^

The  more I think of what unfolded ( I think Michigan will be just fine vs Bama) the more I'm pissed at this decision !

OSU was a better team by alot compared to ND in 2018.. ND struggled vs vandy, Pitt, NW ( common Opponent) unranked usc (week 12 ) OSU had several dominate wins ( puke ) and one bad loss.. At the the end of the year it wasnt even a debate osu (#5) was better than ND (#4). Committee rewarded 12-0 ND. 

Last year TCU falls to Kansas St in conf championship, 99/100 people would agree bama was a better football team than TCU. body of work prevailed. 

lastly, Why stop with just getting the best teams into the playoffs ? Does the committee really think the seeding in correct? Washington really better than Texas and Bama ? How is FSU viewed better ( #5) than UGA (#6) under the same circumstance ? 

 

Vegas Wolverine

December 4th, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^

Gotta be glad that next year, top 6 ranked conference champions get automatic bids to the 12-team CFP.  Because if it was all Committee-chosen, who's to say they wouldn't have shoved FSU all the way down to 12 or 13?

Final ranking was 5) FSU, 6) Geogia, 7) Ohio, 8) Oregon, 9) Mizzou, 10) Penn State, 11) Ole Miss, 12) Oklahoma, 13) LSU.

You're telling me the pageantry committee wouldn't try to make more "compelling" matchups and shove 13-0 FSU all the way down below each of them?