Football Outsiders (Per ESPN) predict 7 losses for UM ($)

Submitted by massblue on

I think Football Outsiders are on drugs.  Among their many strange predictions are the following margins of victory/losses

 

CMU + 19, ND - 10, Akron + 33, UConn -5, MINN + 13, PSU -11, IND + 9, MSU -16, NEB -7, NW - 11, IOWA -8, OSU -13.

 

It also claims that we will have the #31 Defense.

 

Of course, ESPN turns around and ranks us #14.

 

Link

http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9528915/michigan-wolverines-college-football-power-rankings-espn-magazine

 

Edit:

Football Outsiders has had a good record in predicting NFL games.  But their methodology may not translate well to the college level.  Can anyone explain their Efficiency Rating?

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/

 

Added Iowa

Monocle Smile

August 7th, 2013 at 1:01 PM ^

Predicting a loss to Sparty by more points than they're likely to score and a loss to UConn period means these twats have been in comas for a few years.

MichiganMan14

August 7th, 2013 at 12:17 PM ^

This writer probably graduated from whatever community college is in Columbus and lost his sweetheart to a UofM grad who subsequently put out a raunchy s**tape of them enjoying each other somewhere on State Street.

gopoohgo

August 7th, 2013 at 12:19 PM ^

Um...where can I put money on these lines?  I'll put 5 figures on Michigan with 5 points @ UConn.

Will MSU score over 16 points all season, let alone 16 points more than Michigan?

wtf

Don

August 7th, 2013 at 12:25 PM ^

We could lose to ND or PSU or MSU or NEB or NW or OSU, or maybe two of them, but predicting that we're going to lose to all of them in the same season is nuts.

But predicting a loss at UConn is completely fucking insane.

gwkrlghl

August 7th, 2013 at 12:26 PM ^

These are the same guys who said MSU was a title contender and asserted that Mike Martin had a "down" senior year where he struggled with strength after having 1st round aspirations. These guys apparently love to spit out numbers without thinking for half a second about how stupid they sound

Logan88

August 7th, 2013 at 1:35 PM ^

Based on that collection of opinions rendered (along with the prediction of a 16 pt loss to MSU), it sure sounds like they have some Sparties doing the bulk of their writing.

 

EDIT: I just read the full article on ESPN (Yay for $5.00 Insider!) and it is Fremeau who is making those ridculous predictions (does he write for Football Outsders'?).  According to his margin of victory predictions, UM will only beat CMU, Akron, Minny and Indiana. He states that ND will have the 10th best offense in CFB (lol, wut?) and OSU the 7th best defense (lol, wut? redux).

In reply to by PeterKlima

LSAClassOf2000

August 7th, 2013 at 3:18 PM ^

Part of that formula, I believe is the program FEI, which you can find here - LINK - for the years 2007-2012. Of interest is that we fall from 11th in 2007 to 29th as of 2012 (probably higher once this season is through), but to get there, we fell to 21st in 2008, 37th in 2009, 50th in 2010, then rose to 33rd in 2011. Any calculation that uses program FEI on this site means we take a major hit basically, at least for now. 

 

Smidgens

August 7th, 2013 at 12:28 PM ^

Meanwhile we're tied with Texas for No. 14 and they predict Texas to win every game. ESPN what are you doing just stop and go back to talking about Tebow.

FreddieMercuryHayes

August 7th, 2013 at 12:29 PM ^

Correct me if I'm wrong, but they use an algorithm based off past season's performance to make their predictions correct?  So just like every time one of these algorithm based predictions comes out, we need to keep in mind that it's including probably 2 years at least of the RR regime in it's calculations.  That's a big caveat before anybody's head aslode.

CliffSnotes

August 7th, 2013 at 12:39 PM ^

I remember reading FO a few years ago on this and did some digging.  Here's what he said at the beginning of last year:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/fei-ratings/2012/fei-preseason-primer-2012

This appears to be one of his "spectacular misses".

Obviously, Michigan gets dinged not only for poor seasons 3, 4, and 5 years ago, but also for poor recruiting ratings in those years.  Also, while we have every reason to be optimistic about Devin Gardner, according to his methodology, he doesn't have a lot of experience. Same thing with needing to replace a bunch of starters, even if we might be better at some of those positions (like Interior OL).

Bodogblog

August 7th, 2013 at 12:46 PM ^

Program FEI is a measure of the last five years, and the most recent is the 2012 PFEI (2008-2012).  Michigan ranks #29 overall.  It's a big component of the overall prediction, given they say it's one of their most accurate indicators of future wins. More recent years count more-ly.

That seems a bit simplistic, since the Alabamas and LSUs and Michigans (pre-2008) of the world are going to validate that statistic, and the MSU types that pop their heads up for 10 wins every 25 years are going to refute it. 

DavidP814

August 7th, 2013 at 1:09 PM ^

Yes, they use past performance to calculate their 2013 projections--but the key is that it isn't the singular past season's performance, it's plural past seasons' performance.  I believe the most recent 5 years worth of data, to be precise.  So, the RichRod 3-9 and 5-7 years are part of these projections.

Given that knowledge, I can't get too worked up about these projections--actually, I give them credit to sticking to their model despite the likelihood that this particular projection is flawed.

Don

August 7th, 2013 at 3:03 PM ^

A model that cannot take into account changes in football program direction—especially in college—is seriously flawed. How would FO have predicted Michigan's season in 1938, since their previous 5 seasons were 7-0, 1-7, 4-4, 1-7, and 4-4?

Crash

August 7th, 2013 at 12:29 PM ^

These people are out of their minds.  That's a lot more losses than my prediction of zero.  If the spam filter would let me I'd post a picture illustrating that "Bitches be trippin'".

triguy616

August 7th, 2013 at 12:29 PM ^

So, the only games they've slated us to win are the cupcakes:



Central, Akron, Minnesota, Indiana.

This is the biggest crock of shit I may have ever seen.