Fictitious Narrative?: Mike Smith and struggles against "length"
So the narrative the last week or so is that Mike Smith struggles against tall, athletic guards. While he did appear to be uncomfortable during the LSU game, this has not been a rule this year.
Our favorite hard shelled punching bag, Maryland, is actually pretty similar to LSU/FSU from a length perspective (just lacking the 7 footer in the middle). They are also only 10 spots behind FSU in Def Efficiency at Ken Pom. Morsell and Ayala are both 6'5" and Smith played well in each match up, obviously with the peak being the 15 Ast/ 0 TO game in the tourney.
Am I missing something here? Is the athleticism difference between Maryland and LSU/FSU so great that it is a bad comparison? What does everyone think?
It wasn't length that caused that Fred Brown pass up 8.
Showing my age here but I had to Google who Fred Brown is. Poor Georgetown.
Not up 8. Down 1, under 15 seconds, with the ball, and a chance for a game winning shot for G'town. Some kid named Jordan hit a midrange jumper to put UNC up 1 on the previous possession.
An epic game. Hey young kids, go watch the finals from 81-85. Some of the greatest ever. And largely because of who played in them.
Pretty sure the "up 8" part was in reference to Mike Smith's errant pass (reminiscent of Fred Brown's) late in the LSU game.
Was there a bad championship game in the 1980s? I think from 1980-89, there was only one 10+ win.
He does struggle against length on defense, that's just a by product of being his size. However he is not a liability because of that struggle. We have seen taller defenders shoot over the top of him this season over and over. That struggle on defense is more than made up for on offense where taller defenders struggle to defend him. His size allows him to get to spot's on the floor that open passing lanes or cause trouble for defenders to stay in front of him.
His size on offense may end up being a major plus since FSU also struggled defending GTs smaller guards in the ACC championship game
I’m not a basketball guy, but like watching Michigan. One of the announcers said that Smith gets uncontested and accurate bounce passes under all the bigs around him. It resonated with me on the one play I saw (dunk buy Dickinson) in that all the guys had their hand in the air.
That’s one ex-wrestler’s comment.
It's true... Instinct tells players to raise their hands when defending, especially when in layup range. And you'll see it every time Smith drives into the lane - players converge and raise their hands, and he hardly ever gets an actual layup out of his hands. Instead, he'll pass the ball off to someone else for an easy bucket, or he'll dribble out just a little and find an open guy at the 3pt line. Unlike Simpson, he isn't necessarily looking to get himself a layup when he drives. More often than not, he's looking for the easy assist - and he usually gets it.
March 26th, 2021 at 11:56 AM ^
Instinct and every coach since 2nd grade yelling at you to get your hands up on defense. I like that Smith takes advantage of that.
Username checks out (@gentleman sqirrels)
I think Smith got into his head after a couple miscues and the game became too fast for him in the moment. He should be fine and will settle down and make better passes. It was smart of Howard to pull him for stretches and coach him whenever possible. We will need him to bring his A game the next weekend and hopefully after that too
All players (even the Kobe’s and LeBrons) struggle with length.
Smith is undersized and does not have great athleticism (like a young Chris Paul) or long arms (like Rondo’s 6’10”arms) to help him overcome it.
However, you can hide his defensive shortcomings fairly well if you scheme right. On offense, I wouldn’t be too worried.
I think there's something where he thinks he needs to be "the guy" at the end of the game with Livers out. He then puts a lot of pressure on himself to make plays and ends up making mistakes.
Good guy, bad game. I hope that this can be a learning moment for him.
I've been noticing that lately as well. He seems to get really tense and start making mistakes late in close games.
March 26th, 2021 at 10:43 AM ^
Fantastic point and absolutely agree. After his four years at Columbia, it's probably his instinct to want to take over, but like the last shot against Ohio State, I think many fans recoil a little bit when he tries to do much given the talent level around him. I know I do.
I am glad to see my general sentiments being echoed in the replies. I think he definitely got in his head about trying to out score guys like Thomas and Smart. I expect a big bounce back game and some timely buckets.
Smart and Thomas were also just insanely good scorers off the dribble while also having a size advantage on Smith. They were able to shoot over Smith and everyone else pretty easily in that first half. The good thing is that we likely aren't going to see that good of scorers off the dribble until the Final Four if we make it there
It's the same thing that always happens. Guy has 1 bad game. 1 bad game is retroactively applied to entire season by crazy internet fanbase. Crazy internet fanbase decides guy who had 1 bad game now sucks and will doom us all.
8.7.1Guy comes out following weekend and scores 14 + 7 assists
I love that everyone seems to be picking FSU.
Yep, noticing that too, you just know Juwan is letting the guys know this.
March 25th, 2021 at 11:27 PM ^
Most of all Michigan fans. Each team is the new 90s bulls. Only fan base with our level of success that anoints each of our opponents before the game. Glad most of the posters don’t play in the games!
March 26th, 2021 at 10:45 AM ^
Just like everyone picked LSU. They love their upset alert narratives.
I will echo Brian’s MVP from our last game. Regression to the mean will always win the day. One bad game just means he needs to statistically make up for it, and he will. Let’s just hope that recovery starts Sunday.
Regression to the mean will occur in the long run, but it's not a sure thing within the context of one game. Duane Washington didn't cool off in his two games against us.
This is not how regression to the mean - or anything based in probability theory, really - works. But I hope you’re right!
Yeah it's more about the Law of Large Numbers...Your odds of the next coin flip coming up heads don't change after flipping five in a row.
Height can be an obstacle, obviously, but I think the biggest problem was that Smith just played a poor game, he can use his quickness to his advantage and get by guys to distribute to open shooters.
He just needs to play smarter and make clean, crisp passes.
This^^^^^
Poor decision making wasn't the result of height or athleticism. Mike Smith is as veteran as it gets and knows how to compensate for taller opponents. He just had a bad game from a turnover aspect and I do not think it will translate to the next.
March 25th, 2021 at 11:42 PM ^
He's a freshman as far as playing in the NCAA Tournament is concerned
Username checks out.
March 25th, 2021 at 11:55 PM ^
He's a freshman as far as playing in the NCAA Tournament is concerned
It's deja vu all over again.
He’s fine against length, but he does struggle against lenth.
Smith didn’t have a great game against LSU but he wasn’t a catastrophe, either. The defensive issue will be different, as he’s not going to matchup against an NBA-level iso scorer that is also significantly taller than him this game. Offense is more of a question, but it’s not like offense was a disaster against LSU.
BTW, UMHoops highlighted a play in five key plays where the ball swung to a low-use LSU player (I forget the name) in the second half and Smith rapidly closed out... to cut off the pass rather than the shot, forcing the player to keep the ball and do something, which resulted in a drive and a miss by a guy LSU doesn’t want shooting. A brilliant play. Smith brings a lot of value.
Awesome stuff!
I need to subscribe to UM Hoops. Plays like that are the little things in games that I just don't know to look for.
A lot of good content this week. This is my second go-round, I picked it up on their black friday sale, well worth it given how the team has turned out.
I went back and looked at the play again (Dylan's video is proprietary, including several defensive stops, but a full-game replay is probably available somewhere).
The play in question starts with about 6:25 to go in the second half, Michigan up 69-64, after the Brandon Johns 3-point miss off the front rim. Smith gets back in transition to stifle any scoring chance there. LSU passes a bit and has a drive or two flustered. The ball is kicked out Eric Gaines, with a 25.3% eFG, on the wing, with Smart in the corner pretty open with Brown sagging well off of him. Smith clearly barrels into the passing lane, and Gaines winds up driving and missing a guarded attempt at the rim. Michigan remains up five. Huge play.
Dylan also highlighted a couple points where Smith used perfect positioning to prevent transition scoring opportunities. He may have had a rough game, but he was not detached by any stretch.
He was -11 over 32 minutes in a game we won by 8. In other words, the team was +19 in the 8 minutes he was off the floor. I’d classify that as a catastrophe
I think this is the main point about the LSU game. -11 is very bad. Now, I think he can and will play better. I love Mike but I think this is more of a 25 minute game of him with Eli running the point. I think our most played lineup needs to be Eli, Chaundee, Brandon, Franz, and Hunter. I think they are our best chance to win a probable rock fight.
He struggles against foot speed meaning, if he can't get by someone, his offensive game is limited.
True. But you could say that of anyone.
Mike’s issue against LSU was he got shot shot blocked by Cam Thomas early in the game and was hesitant afterwards. He played tentative on offense when it came to taking shots as a result. Also, he was the only player to register a negative +/- on the team in that game. The Brooks/Wagner/Brown/Johns/Dickinson was the best lineup for that particular game as well. However, that shouldn’t result in Mike being replaced as a starter for Sunday’s matchup against FSU. Juwan will just have to monitor how he performs and adjust accordingly.
Regarding Mike, I feel like on defense taller guards can get shots off on him easier and seem to make more against him than others, but no one has really gone down and posted him up and he appears rather strong.
Offensively, he has been dealing with his height all his life and knows the room he needs to get a shot off. When he goes to the hoop in traffic it makes me nervous because it’s likely to get blocked. Also, he is not the person we want the ball in their hands when the shot clock winds down.
I wish Franz would get more late shot clock iso plays but he’s almost to unselfish to want those.
Mike is a great player and huge addition yet his height has caused him issues. If he were 6’ 3” then I think he would have NBA potential, but the height is limiting.
The OSU game in the B1G tourny is the only time I think Smith cost us a game, and that was more because he appeared to be trying to score too much and get in the paint when there were guys there. It appeared as if he was overcompensating for Livers being out and it has since been corrected.
When you have a short PG there are advantages and disadvantages. In the college game, it’s great to have a PG like Smith because there aren’t very many tall players who can handle the ball like he can. Most tall PGs in college play more like guards who happen to bring the ball up the court.
I think the bigger problem is guards like Duane Washington who use their size to back him down into the post. The guard(s) would also need to be pretty quick to blow past Mike. Obviously a bigger guard can shoot over him but I’m ok with contested mid range jumpers.
Eh he doesn't struggle with length.
He struggles when he has to play NBA quality guards. LSU, Illinois etc
I'm more scared of 10 minutes Austin Davis has to give us. I always hold my breath.
Not his fault, just is what it is.
Before Livers went down, I thought our tourney would end because we were one backup short and the worst part he transferred in Colin Castleton
Do you at least breathe when he scores?! Because it's clear by now he has that ability; his post moves are pretty damned good and it doesn't matter who's guarding (see: the 4 or 6 pts versus Kofi Cockburn)
March 25th, 2021 at 10:01 PM ^
Geez, He's just catching some bad matchups vs LSU and FSU.
Yes he scores. But he also has turnovers and isn't a great passer out of the post. He puts lots of strain on the rest of our defense.
He also had 4 turnovers vs Illinois. If you want to just cherry pick stats
I'd love to have him another year, but last three real games.. OSU LSU FSU just horrible matchups
Hopefully, it was just a bad game for Smith and he will use that experience as motivation versus FSU...
there were a number of bad plays, but his struggles versus full court pressure late in the game give me a bit of pause...
As noted, Eli took over the PG role and settled things down, with Smith on the bench...so I am confident that there are viable options if Smith does struggle again