CC or not CC: Breaking down the process

Submitted by 1464 on

I've seen this point touched on, but I haven't seen a topic posted.

There is one large flaw that exists with all the rhetoric flying around on this site about dumping Hoke immediately.  Everybody seems to be rallying around the fact that Hoke needs to be gone yesterday, but I'd like to step back and consider the process involved.

Dumping Hoke would be good, yes?  But what is the single thing that would be more harmful than retaining Hoke for one more year?  A coaching search that ends with us somehow hiring John L. Smith as our new HC?

Granted, I may have exaggerated a bit with that.  But why dump Hoke until we have solid information that we can trade up?  What if we fire Hoke today, only to find out that Harbaugh(s), Miles, Mullen, Petersen, et al. do not want to come here?  Then what?  Then we get Schiano'd.

The point I am trying to make, and maybe not as cohesively as I'd like, is that you are crazy if you think the AD is not reaching out to find in-roads with candidates.  If we get very bad news on that front (which honestly would not surprise me), then we keep Hoke another year and face those consequences.

I want to repeat this: MICHIGAN ABSOLUTELY CANNOT MESS UP THE NEXT HEAD FOOTBALL COACH.

I'll take one more year of a slow and painful death by clock mismanagement over hiring Jerry Kill and finding out that Kill was a bad choice.  Four years later and the carousel has made another revolution and we wonder why in the hell we are hiring guys with marginally good records at Minnesota.

Firing Hoke before lining up a replacement could doom us.  I'm not suggesting Hoke is a viable option AT ALL, just that if we miss on the big names this year, Hoke could function as a quasi-interim HC.  Again, that is not an ideal situation, but neither is hiring Lane Kiffin.

 

TLDR synopsis:

The coaching situation is not black and white.  Better to keep Hoke around until they line up a suitable replacement.  We CANNOT screw up another hire.  Not all coaches have Michigan as their dream job.  If our list of 1A, 1B, 1C type coaches are not available, it is better to keep Hoke and make a new list of 1A, 1B, and 1C coaches for next year...

atom evolootion

December 1st, 2014 at 2:16 PM ^

That'll fix a lot of stuff a lot of times, but it won't fix everything every time. Some coaches quite simply don't want to come here or go other places, and that's that. As stubborn as Jim Harbaugh can be, it wouldn't surprise me if he tries to hang in the NFL even longer because the talk is that he's not an NFL coach, but a college coach who coaches in the NFL. Nick Saban ain't coming. Gruden ain't coming. Miles might. Mullens might not. It's just a fact that not everybody is willing to go everywhere, and many of the ones who are willing are coaches we don't want because they're not good enough or are not culturally fitted for Michigan, even if they are better than what we have.

FreddieMercuryHayes

December 1st, 2014 at 2:14 PM ^

The fact that Kill's resume is better than Hoke's says more that Hoke should never had been hired in the first place. Kill is not an elite coach with very little upside. Just because he went 8-4 in a terrible B1G he's all of a sudden a candidate? UM needs an elite head coach, not a decent re-tread



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michgoblue

December 1st, 2014 at 2:12 PM ^

I think that Kill is a great coach.  That said, what our program needs more than anything is stability.  We absolutely cannot take a risk on this next hire.  Unfortunately, because of his health issues, Kill is a risk.  Because of that, he is not the right man for us.  It is, sadly, unfair to Kill, as I expect that most big coaching searches do not consider him because of his health issues, but unfortunately, those issues are a reaility that must be considered.

1464

December 1st, 2014 at 2:17 PM ^

Several reasons.  Hearing him speak, he sounds like a nice guy, but he also reminds me of Hoke in the "aww, shucks" way he conducts himself.  I don't know his track record, but my concern is that these last couple years have been a flash in the pan, and that he won't pan out long term anywhere.  He does not seem like an alpha coach or a tactician, so I feel like he would be in over his head if he came to a big school.  The third, and this is not a fun one, but honestly, the health concerns are also something to consider.

You may think I am being a little too critical, but I would basically write off the future if Kill got hired.  As Hoke proves, there is a major difference between being a good guy, and being a good coach.

ThadMattasagoblin

December 1st, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^

At Michigan you shouldn't be stuck with Schiano every search. Every other school besides us that isn't ND seems to be able to get their #1-2 option. Urban Meyer for Ohio and Florida, Saban for Bama, Charlie strong for Texas, Franklin and O Brien for PSU, Carroll for USC, Petrino and Bielema for Arkansas.

lilpenny1316

December 1st, 2014 at 2:08 PM ^

Though I believe it wouldn't be that difficult to upgrade from Hoke.  It's more a matter of being willing to pay the money that one of those attractive candidates would command.  FWIW, Mullen is not a born and bred SEC guy (he's from PA), so I think we could pull him.  Give me a 42 year old college coach with a spread offense and Midwest roots any time.

michgoblue

December 1st, 2014 at 2:15 PM ^

Why would we do that?  I am all good with the firing Hoke part, but what has either of these guys shown that would qualify them for HC.  Mattison has fielded decent to good defenses since he got here, but those same defenses crumble against teams with mobile QBs that use "tempo."  OSU has torched our defenses for two straight years.  Also, for those who say that our team has come out flat, played sloppy or just not played well, while Hoke is the HC, that also reflects on the two coordinators.

turd ferguson

December 1st, 2014 at 2:12 PM ^

Waiting is too costly and uncertain to justify.  It'd generate a lot of apathy and malaise among fans, stretch the damage to multiple years of recruiting classes, and generally leave the impression (among the media, team, fans, etc.) that we don't know where we're headed.  And why should we believe that next year's crop of candidates will be better and more interested in Michigan?

If we miss with the ultra-desirable candidates this year, then we just need to do our homework on the riskier bets and do the best we can.  It's clear that this coaching staff isn't getting it done.  Personally, I wish Hoke had fired about half of his assistants after last season, since I think that was his best bet for pulling through, but now it's too late for that.

A lot of very good coaches would take the Michigan job, if offered a decent salary.  We just have to find one who will succeed here.

Mr. Yost

December 1st, 2014 at 2:19 PM ^

Not picking a fight...I'm just interested as to why you think "waiting is too costly and uncertain to justify."

Because my counterpoint to your next sentance is simple.

You don't hire a coach based on the fans...if you hire a coach and he wins, who gives a crap about apathy in December. If you waited until 12/27 to fire Hoke and end up with Jim Harbaugh, who everyone wants...who gives a crap about apathy. You don't make these decisions based on fans - I think it's arrogant as a fan to think you should have ANY say in the timetable.

My second counterpoint would be....don't you think firing Hoke now (to appease the fans) and going 5 weeks without a coach would bring back that same apathy and malaise?

Sure people would be happy - now...but if you still don't have a coach and it's after Christmas, people are mad and pissed off again. Saying that the admin doesn't know what it's doing and wondering why it's taking so long.

You were on this board in 2009, so I'm guessing you remember the Rich Rod/Bill Martin debacle. We all knew Carr was retiring and it took us forever to find a coach and everyone was pissing and moaning about the timetable.

So sure, fire Hoke today brings horns and celebration. But that only lasts a couple of weeks. 3, 4, 5 weeks from now...people will be pissed.

So if either way they're going to be mad...why even worry about them? Especially knowing the only long term solution to their happiness is finding the RIGHT guy...and winning.

Mr. Yost

December 1st, 2014 at 2:37 PM ^

Well, at least I think I made some good points for those saying we're losing ground or whatever by not firing Hoke yesterday, today, tomorrow.

Or at least that's what I'll tell myself so I don't cry myself to sleep tonight.

Next time you should do what I'd do if someone called me screaming and it was the wrong number. Act like a crazy person, or use a creeper voice, or just start singing...anything completely random.

1464

December 1st, 2014 at 2:36 PM ^

I may have misrepresented my point, but it was not advocating we keep Hoke another year.  It was that we keep Hoke until we have what we consider a very strong replacement.  If the only replacements we find this year could be seen as a lateral move, from one mediocre coach to another, we may as well string it out another year.  If there is nobody for us to look at and say "I am very happy about this hire" then we gain absolutely nothing.

Without a first choice type of guy, fan interest, recruit interest, and national prominence will not be elevated.  And at that point, we are married to another mediocre guy for another generation of players.  It's just... we cannot accept anything but a top guy.  Barring that, I'd rather string Hoke along until we can woo/sweet-talk/annoy/convince/bribe/blackmail a top guy to accept the position.

charblue.

December 1st, 2014 at 3:03 PM ^

aspects of his job are finished, like attending the football bust and meeting with his team for one last time. Not sure when their last meeting is scheduled, I think it's Wednesday afternoon. If a decision to fire him hasn't been announced, it isn't because the decision hasn't  been made. Michigan is all about killing them softly, as occurred with Dave Brandon. 

The other point about this, is that the coaching targets we as a fan base want aren't available yet. 

Is Michigan going after Scot Frost or Jim Herman? Well, they aren't available either -- at the moment. You could talk to them in the interim and see if they would have an interest in the job. In other words, you could connect the dots with potential candidates for interviews and then go after your primary candidates as the situation permits. 

There is no real need to fire a coach until you have a process or person committed to replacing him. In any case, Michigan doesn't operate like Nebraska, and we all know this. 

charblue.

December 1st, 2014 at 3:03 PM ^

aspects of his job are finished, like attending the football bust and meeting with his team for one last time. Not sure when their last meeting is scheduled, I think it's Wednesday afternoon. If a decision to fire him hasn't been announced, it isn't because the decision hasn't  been made. Michigan is all about killing them softly, as occurred with Dave Brandon. 

The other point about this, is that the coaching targets we as a fan base want aren't available yet. 

Is Michigan going after Scot Frost or Jim Herman? Well, they aren't available either -- at the moment. You could talk to them in the interim and see if they would have an interest in the job. In other words, you could connect the dots with potential candidates for interviews and then go after your primary candidates as the situation permits. 

There is no real need to fire a coach until you have a process or person committed to replacing him. In any case, Michigan doesn't operate like Nebraska, and we all know this. 

PB-J Time

December 1st, 2014 at 4:28 PM ^

Here's the neccessary logical leap you must make from your question though: if for whatever reason our top picks/ideas for good coaches are unavailable now, how would that change next year? I would strongly suspect we'd be back here (dissatisfied with Hoke & wanting change), only with more apathy and a worse looking program/incoming recruits. Which coaches are all of a sudden available then which aren't now?

Oh Deer

December 1st, 2014 at 2:28 PM ^

Turd hits on the reason that you CANT wait another year - "And why should we believe that next year's crop of candidates will be better and more interested in Michigan"

Another year of Hoke means another year of losing and tearing down of the Michigan brand. There's nothing to be gained by keeping him on another year - nothing. Not sure how another year of bad football makes the Michigan job more attractive to possible coaches.

If Harbaugh and the other high profile coaches mentioned on this site don't want the job, then Hackett needs to do his due diligence and find an up and coming coach. It can't be worse than this - it could be equally as bad - but that's a risk I would certainly be willing to take.

Fear of the unknown doesn't mean that you accept the garbage that you already have.

 

1464

December 1st, 2014 at 2:29 PM ^

I guess the answer lies in that gray area.  You're correct that retaining Hoke will cause fans to remain disinterested.  If the tradeoff to another subpar year would be landing our first fully functioning coaching staff since... when?  It's been a loooong time.  Fans may be pushed to the brink by another year of 5-7 or 6-6 ball.  But if we make a bad choice, or panic and fire Hoke, only to find that our options are not there, then what would happen if someone came in and duplicated Hoke's 4 years?  Our home games would look like Miami Marlins games...

Mr. Yost

December 1st, 2014 at 2:11 PM ^

...but I'd argue that just about anyone is a step above Hoke. Now that doesn't help us long term, because you want a long term fix. Not just an upgrade.

For me it's about 4 things...

  1. Cutting down the time you're without a head coach (because I think we all agree that we're not going to fill the position any time soon --- because our top candidates will be coaching until the end of the month at the very least).
  2. Allowing Hoke to hold end of the year player meetings and have a formal evaluation with his superiors. None of this happens 48 hours after the last game of the season.
  3. Give ourselves time to evaluate the CC landscape - because we do not have an obvious coordinator that we all want to hire. Or a midmajor head coach that we all want to hire.
  4. Not creating a media storm that backs potential candidates into a corner and forces this to happen:

GoBlueDenver

December 1st, 2014 at 2:12 PM ^

Another thing to consider is that firing Hoke now will create endless questions and speculation for our candidates who will have to face them head on and be forced to address, eventually. This is while they're still practicing and playing. If you're a 49ers or LSU team, you want your coach to answer those questions rather than skirt around them - which is kind of an answer in itself.

J.Madrox

December 1st, 2014 at 3:11 PM ^

But the candidates are already facing these questions. Miles addresses the rumors every time there is even a chance the Michigan job opens up, same with Harbaugh. Stoops has had to directly state he is not taking another job due to Michigan and Florida rumors.

Why would Michigan firing Hoke now instead of two weeks from now somehow increase the questions? Why should Michigan be concerned about the endless questions if they fire Hoke now when no other school seems to have that concern?

I don't care if coaches at other schools have to answer questions about the Michigan job. Coaches (like Saban) have denied interest in a job and than accepted that same job a few weeks later. I just don't see how keeping Hoke on to avoid other coaches having to answer tough questions outweighs the negatives.

MI Expat NY

December 1st, 2014 at 2:13 PM ^

Fear of messing up the coaching search is reason to keep a coach that is proven to be bad?  That's absurd.  I agree the next guy needs to succeed, but here's the rub, there's absolutely no guarantee of that.  On the other hand, the information we have on Hoke is that he can't get the job done.  That his guys don't get better.  That we're falling behind in one of the worst big tens in history.  How anyone can see continuing with the coach that has made that happen would ever be the better option blows my mind.

If the Michigan administration, in other words Hackett, won't fire Hoke until they feel good about who the next guy will be, then the administration has failed already.  

MichiganITtoWINit

December 1st, 2014 at 3:00 PM ^

We are a school that should be competing for Big Ten titles every year. Urban Meyer is the reason we cannot mess this coaching change up. We have to hit a homerun with this next hire or we will see our college football program funnel down the rabbit hole. We are messing up by keeping Hoke because we should have never hired him.. and I was on the bandwagon because of all the former player support of the Hoke hire.. I assumed they knew something we did not. 

Bb011

December 1st, 2014 at 2:16 PM ^

A lot of people are going to disagree with you, but I agree. Our next coaching hire has to be solid. If we cant get our top 5 or so picks then keeping hoke is better than settling for plan f.

bacon

December 1st, 2014 at 2:16 PM ^

It seems likely that the delay is to avoid some sort of contractual issue or to allow for a buyout. I think Michigan has many options that are better than Hoke at this point. Not all of them are as favored as hiring Jim harbaugh, but they exist. Hoke makes almost twice what most coaches at D-I schools make. I'm sure many coaches would jump for the opportunity at the money, prestige and opportunity that Michigan is. It's just a question of finding one guy who's right. Hoke isn't that good, so holding onto him because you're worried there might not be a better option is silly.