CC or not CC: Breaking down the process

If we follow the trendlines, Hoke has another bad to mediocre year in 2015.  Here are some probable outcomes:

• Michigan football continues to be irrelevant (decreasing desirability of the role)
• AD revenue from football drops off significantly.  
• Recruiting take s a major hit
• Harbaugh settles into a different solution in the NFL
• Miles is a year older
• Someone else hires this year's emerging genius and gets started on rebuilding their program sooner

I don;t thinking waiting does much for us.

Well at the very least we could always get Les Miles.  He has made it pretty clear that he would take the job if Michigan offered.  Something about never saying no to Michigan.  He isn't my #1 choice but he is better IMO than Kill, Bielema, etc. 

You want to hold on to Hoke out of fear we can't do better? Hoke deserves to be fired irregardless of who the next guy is, based on the result on the field and win/losses! I just don't understand your rationale.

I totally agree that the process has to produce a great outcome this time.

But I don't see how the process can begin until Hoke is let go. People talk. And there is too big a chance that details would leak. The AD would look awful. As tempting as it would be, Hackett can't risk this.

We've got to let Hoke go and take our chances.

While I am also hitting "refresh" on MgoBlog and twitter all day, anxious to see a formal announcement re: Hoke being fired, I do understand why some delay is both expected, and perhaps beneficial:

1.  Hoke has a buyout that drops on 1/1.  I am certainly not arguing that we should wait until 1/1, but perhaps there is some negotiation going on that would allow Michigan to fire Hoke sooner, but allow Hoke to get an amount somewhere between his current $3 million buyout and his $2 million 1/1 buyout.  This negotiation might take a day or so.

2.  Hackett has said that he would conduct an evaluation of Hoke, and I would hope that he would deliver the message to Hoke in person.  The game ended on Saturday.  I expect that Hoke took the bus back to AA with his team, didn't arrive back in AA until late evening, and then went home to spend time with his family after such a disappointing loss / season.  The next day was Sunday.  The earliest possible day for Hackett to deliver the news would be today.  And who is to say that this is not happening later today or tomorrow.

3.  Perhaps Hackett is surveying the landscape?  If he is smart, then he has feelers out through intermediaries to all of the top candidates on his list.  While we and the media have all universally assumed that the top candidate is Harbaugh, we have no real idea.  Perhaps he is secretly courting Saban?  Sean Payton?  Mike Ditka?  Greg Schiano?  Who the hell knows.  The point is that before pulling the trigger, he might want to make sure that someone who he considers an upgrade is out there and strongly indicative of their desire to accept the job.

Note:  I expect that many will say that "anyone is better than Hoke."  In a vacuum, perhaps, but keep in mind that any transition involves costs - transfers, learning a new scheme for those who stay, possible loss of the fer remaining recruits, etc.  IF the new coach is a significant upgrade, then it absolutely makes sense.  And there are more than a handful of candidates who are an upgrade.  But, if we are going to fire Hoke for Charlie Weis, Ron English, Cam Cameron or Loeffler, do you still make the move, or do you hope that something clicks in year 5 with a team that returns just about everyone? 

 

The assistant coaches don't deserved to get screwed over.  Give them time to find new jobs if possible.  Also, I'd take Schiano over Hoke.  Hoke has already failed.  I'd give anyone a chance to suceed rather than giving a proven failed commodity another chance.

You only keep Hoke if we cannot get anyone better than Hoke.  Since there are approximately 231,043 better candidates out there, I think we need to pull the trigger. Hoke more than had his opportunity and we know for a fact that he is not a good coach.  The decent candidates will almost always need to be pried from an existing program and there will always be competition for decent prospects - no point in waiting until next year.  If we can't do it this year we can't do it next year.

The one thing Hoke did was recruit players with high star ratings.  If we can't get the obvious top choices then just hire anyone with a history of developing players and getting the most of his available talent.  Our current staff clearly is no good in this department and we have plenty of data to evaluate.

Keeping Hoke based on the lack of quality replacements this year makes no sense. You fire Hoke this year because he has done a bad job and signs indicate he will continue to do so.

Plus, the hypothetical job opening could look less enticing next year than it does now.

In the worst case scenario when the top options aren't available then go after someone like Herman or Frost. Hard to imagine many of those types of candidates turning down a HC gig. Tons of great candidates that would accept this position.

There are so many options out there.

Gus Malzahn makes less per year than Hoke. You think we couldn't pry him away for the right price?

Mullen is out there in a similar situation.

I really like Kevin Sumlin, and think he'd be a good hire.

They could try to entice Kirby Smart with an offer he can't refuse.

Michigan just has to, you know, go out there are conduct an actual coaching search. Even assuming Harbaugh is the guy and even assuming he'll accept the job if offered (newsflash; he wont), the AD still has to do their due diligence and talk to all of these people.

No more sailboats or "processes."

Conduct an actual damned coaching search.

I agree with this in large part. The last thing we can afford right now is another 3 or 4 yrs of free fall. That will do irreprable damage to the program and fanbase. I don't want to see upheaval and change just for change's sake

What's even crazier is that Minnesota requested to speak to Hoke but he declined them four years ago.

Call Miles.  Offer him $1 million more per year than whatever they're paying him in that swamp.

He'll be on the next plane.

Why do they put buyout drops on January 1?  Why wouldn't you have language like at the end of the 2014 regular season in a coaches contract?

Bringing back Hoke is not an option. If he is our coach next year, that means we probably also gave him an extension, or at the very least a raise, to make it seem like we support him so we don't destroy the brand (Insert Dave Brandon "The Brand, The Brand, The Brand" speech. I'm sure it's out there) even further and destroy this year's recruiting class and future ones. This new contract would also include a heftier buyout. 

Keeping Hoke is not an option. There will be a new coach roaming the sideline next season. 

unless we do....

and argued your position, but it's wrong.

Hoke should be fired because he's a bad football coach. Period. Whether Schiano is better or worse is not the issue. Hoke is bad. Just watch a game (any game, except for App. St) and you will see this.

I'd think that a gamble on a coordinator is better than keeping Hoke around. Also, I have no faith in Hackett because hiring a Major College Football coach is not like hiring a plant manager in China or a Head of HR in Grand Rapids. It just isn't and Hackett knows nothoing about the process.

Sure, he can hire a consultant, who may or may not have Michigan's best interest at heart. It's a gamble.

The 'PROCESS' (tm by Dave Brandon) is what got us into this fucking debacle in the first place. I want results not a process.

In fact - you scooped me!  I was preparing a new thread with just that topic.  Here are my "reasons":

 OK – the media (local & national), fans, certainly this Blog and most everyone else expects a coaching change before the new season.   I’m not so sure, and provide some reasons below.  But let me start out by heading off comments  that have been repeatedly offered up as reasons why Hoke should be fired, if for no other reason than to spare this thread from regurgitating what’s already been said, which certainly have merit:

-          The wins have steadily declined each successive year

-          The early (successful years) were accomplished with RichRod’s recruits

-          Lack of player development (esp. OL)

-          Poor time mgmt and player substitutions in games (“10 men on the field”)

-          “Shane-gate”

-          Lack of offense,  esp. running game

-          No wins against top-tier teams

-          Notre Dame (shutout)/Utah /Minny/Rutgers/Maryland losses

-          Other things I’m sure, but isn’t that enough to indict?

In comes Jim Hackett.  It’s his job to do the best thing for the football team at this time.  Granted, he is in charge of ALL sports, but we all know what his primary task at hand is.  Given his background and from what I have read about him, he’s a thorough and insightful person.  Presuming that is the case, he will likely step back from the emotional part and take in the big picture.  The following are some things that he will certainly contemplate:

1.        Recent news has indicated that Hackett will be interim AD for, perhaps, the next year.  Will ANY top-tier coach be willing to take a job when it is not defined who his boss will be?  Not likely.  OK, this is nothing new – but it is HUGE.  If this situation persists (i.e.  the “interim” label remains, then forget JH, Miles, etc.).  Frankly, I think that JH is not interested (no basis other than gut feeling) and that if he were to take the job he’d be gone within a few years anyway.

2.       Given Item 1 (above), would Hackett fire Hoke and bring in someone with less stature just to fill the position?  Or would he retain the present staff, give them a year to get things right, and, in the meantime,  hire a “permanent” AD (or convert himself to “permanent”) and keep communication open with possible coaching recruits during next season, who would look more favorably on the job when the boss has been identified?

 

The above 2 points, I believe, are reason enough for Hackett to decide to keep Hoke.  In concert with those reasons, he will also consider the following:

 

1.        The 3 toughest games this season were on the road

2.       New OC & new offense

3.       No Peppers or Morgan almost the entire season

4.       Despite Item 3, the defense generally improved   

5.       OL all underclassmen including a true freshman, and that youth had to learn a new offense  (not new for Cole as he’s a FR)

6.       50 of 56 two deep roster positions returning next year

7.       They play MSU & OSU at home next year  

8.       Hoke and staff are great recruiters

9.       To keep Mattison

10.   Past 2 yrs: turnovers, Turnovers, TURNOVERS!!  Granted, coaching plays into this, but given the track record, no one can convince me that this was not preached about, practiced, and screamed about.  In this case, it DOES boil down to execution!

11.   Past 2 yrs: QB play.  I admire Devin greatly as a person and athlete, but as a QB he looked lost at times the past couple of years, throws awkwardly (sometimes like throwing darts) and turns the freaking ball over WAY too much.  OK, coaching is PART of it but as the saying goes “You can lead a horse to the trough but …”

12.   The games against MSU and OSU were closer than the final scores would suggest.  UM played well for the most part and these are top 10 teams.  They certainly improved compared to the ND game.  To be fair, though, the loss to Maryland (at home) was bad.

13.   Other than the Maryland game, the second half of the season was better than the first half which indicates that the new offense was catching on, the injuries of Peppers & Morgan were overcome, a semblance of a running game seems to have been found.

14.   The reasonably good attendance this year given the bad early season losses combined with 'Brandongate' and ‘Cokegate’,  ticket sales won't suffer much next season if Hoke is retained,  esp. with a better home game slate. 

SUMMARY:  Jim Hackett has work to do.  He seems to be a logical and problem-fixing type of person.  He will step back, look at the big picture (sans emotion), not care about what the media, fans, regents, donors, or anyone else thinks, and he will make the best choice that he feels will benefit this GREAT University.   It is possible that he will determine that the best decision is to retain Hoke, given the circumstances at the present time.

they have been using the back channels for some time now. They know who is and isn't interested in coaching here.

This is as fast as the wheel turns at UM, but it took longer to change classes, let alone a coach, when I was a student. As they say, 'in all due time"...

I agree completely. Unless there is MAJOR SHIT going down that we are all absolutely ignorant to, it may take more CFB hell for Michigan to realize the position it's truly in and if that's where it wants to be. This year wasn't enough AS IT SITS NOW. Clearly, as coaches are recruiting and bad timing or not nobody has been fired. Clearly, as we brought in an interim AD that clearly has no intention of giving that position up anytime soon. We have all this money, this huge stadium, celebrated players/teams in the not so distant past, etc and maybe it will take bringing in a fraction of what we normally do for the true powers that be to realize, like it or not, UM Football is a product. We used to be the best product in the state BY FAR, the region could really be argued certainly around the top nationally and now we're not even the best product in Michigan. Maybe it will take that loss in both games and revenue to either wake us up or go the route of happily being mediocre with really big facilities that will cast a shadow similar to tourist attraction monuments of a once great empire? Maybe we haven't swallowed all of our medicine yet? Maybe the "Michigan Man" ideology needs to die and die by the hands of those that claim to love it with another Hoke season the only thing that will do it? We know what Hoke is and what could come from another year but we have no idea what 3-4 years of potentially settling for the OC from.....fuckin'.....NIU would bring. WE CANNOT MESS THE NEXT HIRE UP. WE CANNOT.

Now that I have your attention, it is FAR more important that this job be done right than that it be done tomorrow.  Or, even this year.  Extreme -- for certain.  But  true.  Anyone at ND that reasonably thought fifteen years ago that "we can't possibly do worse than Faust and Davie" was proven wrong.  Or, ND did at least as bad as those two with their next two (and perhaps next three) hires.

 

Yes, it would be awful to swallow another year of this dreckball.  But it would be far worse to pick "the best guy we can get this year" if he is not someone we want for the long haul. Better we suffer for one more year than the fifteen more -- and counting -- they are suffering down in South Bend.

 

We already know that Hoke is not the guy for the job.  So literally any other candidate is a better option at this point, becuase they at least have not proven they are incapable. 

 

Hoke has already proven that he can't do the job so why in God's name would we keep him?  And don't say recruiting, because this class is already gone and not coming back under Hoke. 

I wish I could up vote you but I agree with your points and argument.  And agreeing with you will likely kill what few MGo points I have...

There are what appear to be six options.

1. Fire Hoke today, wait a month without a head coach, let the recruits and committs twist in the wind then hire the best guy available.
2. Fire Hoke today, wait a month without a head coach, hire Hoke II.
3. Keep Hoke alive, talk to candidates, have a signed agreement in hand from one of them and fire Hoke.
4. Keep Hoke alive, talk to candidates, strike out with all of them, go into 2015 with Hoke and be the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked.
5. Keep Hoke alive, talk to candidates, strike out with all of them, go into 2015 with Hoke and see things turn around (stranger things have happened but there are examples of coaches (Mullen and Dantoinio) who turned things around in year 5)  Hoke needs to get with the program though and fix the punt team issues and accept that Tempo is a thing..
6. Keep Hoke alive, talk to candidates, hire a second choice, find out in 2019 that we screwed it up again.

I wanted RR to get one more year to see if the increasing wins total was sustainable even though the bowl game was a huge disappointment and difficult to watch.  Part of me is kinda curious what 2015 with Hoke would look like.  I know I will get negg'ed for being contrary or being a troll but unless we are guaranteed a superstar TD Homerun coach, I think we are stuck with Hoke for 2015.

I probably wouldn't shit on Jerry Kill. He nearly led a team with a third of the talent we supposedly have to the B1G Championship game and beat our ass in the process.

...but major D1 football doesn't work that way.  All the elite programs fire the guy as soon as it's clear he's not up to the task.  If all programs behaved under the rationale that you have to have someone in place, Florida would have a coach already, as would Nebraska, etc.

If the job is as attractive as we all believe, then you do what needs to be done and you move forward.  To be scared that you won't find someone better sends a horrendous signal, and would be more damaging for the program than losing a year's worth of recruits, in my opinion.

And I'm sick of this sexy name hire bullshit.  Develop the criteria and job responsibilities, then find out who fits and who wants to come.  If that's Harbaugh, great.  If it's Fred Gerstopolous, fine by me (assuming that the criteria are good).

I wish Ohio State had said "it's too risky to fire John Cooper, what if Mike Belloti turns us down?"