Aside from the road history, and perceived big game issues, is there any reason to think Michigan won't win at Wisconsin?
Michigan hasn't won at Wisconsin in 20 years. Harbaugh's Michigan teams haven't won as an underdog. Harbaugh's Michigan teams have been stellar against good teams on the road. We all know these narratives. But, every season, every game, is its own separate entity.
Wisconsin has not been a very good football team this year. Their defense has been good, but their offense has been inconsistent and turnover prone. We've seen this movie before. Remember the 2019 Michigan Wolverines? That team went into Camp Randall off of two unimpressive wins against Middle Tennessee and Army. Michigan's offense had a total of 8 fumbles (5 lost) in those two games. Then, they had 4 turnovers against Wisconsin. That's 9 turnovers in 3 games.
This 2021 Wisconsin team, with a 1-2 record, has 9 turnovers in 3 games! Is there any logical reason to think Michigan won't win this game? History has no bearing this game. Last year, definitely, has no bearing on this game. Wisconsin has not played well this year, and aside from one half, Michigan has been superb. This game will be no contest!
Michigan 34 Wisconsin 10
October 1st, 2021 at 6:16 PM ^
“Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?”
October 1st, 2021 at 6:26 PM ^
Good work. I'd planned on writing the same.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:29 PM ^
“Aside from everything, anything?”
/askingforafriend
October 1st, 2021 at 7:41 PM ^
Okay, so aside from the losing streak, and the playcalling, and the shaky QB play, and the headhunting, and postal service, and sanitation, what have the Romans done for us?
October 1st, 2021 at 8:57 PM ^
...brought #speedinspace?
October 2nd, 2021 at 9:16 AM ^
You sonofabitch!! Insert the Falcon "he's a dick but he's right though" gif.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:34 PM ^
Heh, Biggus Dickus.
October 1st, 2021 at 6:16 PM ^
Yes, its tough to win on the road .
Harbaugh has not shown he can win tough games on the road . He doesnt seem to prepare the team well for road games . Regardless of all the reasons you have laid out . I expect a close game early and after Wisconsin makes adjustments at halftime , the second half may be close but it will be the difference .
October 2nd, 2021 at 12:02 AM ^
Nah, just Wisconsin
October 1st, 2021 at 6:17 PM ^
I watched the second half of the Rutgers game and the staff had no answer to losing the run game. They also didn't have an answer for Cade being off his game.
That's my reason for BPONE heading into the Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State and OSU.
October 1st, 2021 at 6:23 PM ^
I don't think there is an actual answer to "can't run and can't pass".
October 1st, 2021 at 7:14 PM ^
But the problem was, "can't pass and won't run outside of the box." The answers for the running issues against Rutgers were in our playbook, just Gattis wasn't skilled enough/assertive enough to call them, or have had them prepared for that game.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:37 PM ^
I thought part of the issue was the RBs not bouncing runs to the outside. But yeah man, I don't remember a single reverse or a bubble screen...something quick and easy for Cade. I'm putting all my hope in the "let's not put anything on film for Wisconsin" basket.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:15 PM ^
Don’t run, don’t pass, what do you do?
October 1st, 2021 at 8:17 PM ^
Ask Adam!
October 1st, 2021 at 8:31 PM ^
Unfortunately Gattis keeps thinking "there must be something inside"
October 1st, 2021 at 9:42 PM ^
Subtle innuendo, fellow.
October 1st, 2021 at 10:22 PM ^
The answer is to change the quarterback.
October 1st, 2021 at 6:43 PM ^
Michigan hasn’t won as an underdog during Harbaughs tenure. Enough said. I’ll take Wiscy -2.
Almost feels like stealing.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:16 PM ^
Is that true? Never?
October 1st, 2021 at 7:35 PM ^
Unfortunately yes.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:22 PM ^
https://mgoblog.com/content/preview-notre-dame-2019
Wrong. They were +1 against ND in 2019. And won by 30.
But I’m sure your bookie’s daughter’s college fund appreciates your inability to perform a simple Google search.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:47 PM ^
Pretty sure that line against ND changed. That game was also at home. But even if ND was favored… what other games can you point to? I mean Harbaugh’s been here a while certainly we could find another example? Right? Right?!?
October 1st, 2021 at 8:45 PM ^
Wrong, the line shifted after that write-up and Michigan was favored. Harbaugh is 0-12 as an underdog at Michigan.
but I’m sure your bookie’s daughter’s college fund appreciates YOUR inability to perform a simple Google search.
October 1st, 2021 at 8:56 PM ^
The line changed (and documented) to Michigan -1 at Kickoff.
Your google search and smarting off both failed you.
October 1st, 2021 at 10:42 PM ^
Do you control+F every thread on mgoblog for mentions of notre dame?
October 1st, 2021 at 11:47 PM ^
This is right. Not only has Harbaugh never won one of these games, they often haven't even been close.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:17 PM ^
Agreed. Once Michigan finds themselves in a hole, or any adverse situation really, they revert to the most conservative play calling possible. Against Rutgers this manifested as running into stacked boxes and refusing to test the edges. The risk aversion really comes to the fore when we don’t have the game well under control.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:43 PM ^
What’s risk averse about tanking your offense to the point of almost losing? The conservative move would’ve been to attack the edges.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:49 PM ^
You’re right of course, but I’m not saying the risk aversion is rational in any way. It makes no sense to beat your face into the wall over and over, yet here we are.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:42 PM ^
"Risk Averse" is the wrong phrase here. Seems like "deer in headlights" would more aptly fit the bill in this circumstance.
October 1st, 2021 at 10:45 PM ^
There is a non-zero chance, probably a decent chance, that our running game will be limited by the Wisconsin defense. Limited in the sense that there will be uncertainty that we can win the football game with a run first approach. And if the defense are not world beaters and making points on their own, we will need to throw the ball more. And if the pass game is largely unsuccessful, it may be time for JH to go with JJ. It's about winning the game and if your starters are not getting it done you go with your capable backups.
October 1st, 2021 at 11:03 PM ^
or it may simply be time for JH to go
October 1st, 2021 at 6:17 PM ^
I agree that history has no bearing on the game, but it is yet to be determined whether the second half of the Rutgers game does.
[edit]...scooped by a few seconds
October 1st, 2021 at 6:18 PM ^
We want to run + They don't let anyone run + Hard place to win = Lucy pulling the football
(hope I am wrong but that's the math in my head)
October 1st, 2021 at 7:09 PM ^
Yeah, pretty much as simple as their defense is better relative to our offense than our defense is relative to their offense, especially at Camp Randall.
They stop the run, we don't run well on teams that do that. We can't pass the ball. They paved us last year with most of the same offense against most of the same defense. We've improved but hard to believe we've pulled a full 180 on that. Would love to be surprised but lot of evidence against.
October 1st, 2021 at 6:21 PM ^
As someone pointed out in preview thread, the last time Michigan won in Madison was 20 years ago. And the last time they won in Madison by 14 or more was 31 years ago. 34 - 10 ain't happening.
UM - 17 UW - 20
October 1st, 2021 at 10:50 PM ^
Historical stats mean nothing to me. Yeah, it's a trend but it's really meaningless because every season is a different set of players and sometimes a different set of coaches. Wisconsin is difficult to beat at home because they've been decent to good for a very long time and it's generally a difficult place to win for any visitor. And Michigan is always a game that is circled on its opponents' schedules.
Michigan can win the game tomorrow. I believe they will and put some $$$ down on the moneyline.
October 1st, 2021 at 6:21 PM ^
1. Our run defense.
2. Our pass defense.
3. Our pass offense.
4. Our run offense.
5. Our offensive coaching scheme.
6. It might be windy.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:11 PM ^
There is nothing that suggests Michigan is a worse team than Wisconsin in every phase of the game. Michigan could very well lose this game, but most likely it would be because the offensive play calling will not take the path of least resistance against Wisconsin's defense.
They absolutely have the players to execute what it takes to win. What's in question is whether or not Michigan's coaches will call a game that gives the team a chance, or if they're perfectly happy to lose a rock fight.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:22 PM ^
I agree with everything you said, but the sad thing is that over the years it seems that we’re just happy to lose in a rock fight if it means calling the plays that we believe, philosophically, should be the core of our offense.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:59 PM ^
I still think back to one of the half-time / post-game discussions on the B1G Network back when Urban Meyer was one of their analysts and at one point they were discussing Michigan football, the struggles, players, etc. and Meyer was very adament that the team had lots of talent but that they struggled getting their best players the ball and putting them in the most advantageous positions to success (I'm paraphrasing of course). And man, like him or not, he's absolutely right. We have the talent and have had the talent, we just do a really really poor job of utilizing our talent.
Until we actually see Harbaugh and company really utilizing our talent and getting our best players the ball and putting them in the best positions to succeed, I won't have any confidence in the coaching staff. Because until this happens, it's the same old movie that we've seen a thousand times before, and we all know how it ends. You can only cry wolf so many times before the villagers stop believing you.
It's not that folks here or elsewhere hate the team, or are debbie downers for the fun of it...we've literally been classically conditioned to expect our team to NOT be put in a position to succeed by the coaches. Like, at this point, your a fool if you DO expect great things from the team just simply from historical trends and precedent. The only thing that can even semi-accurately predict the future is past behavior. Believing contrary to past behavior without evidence to the contrary is blind faith...and props to you if you can pull that off every season, but a lot of people are simply too rational for that.
Once this coaching staff consistently demonstrates that they are capable of putting our best players on the field, getting them the ball, being creative with the offense, and actually putting the players in the best position to be successful (ie. taking the free yards opposing defenses give them rather than mindlessly rep the one thing the defense is taking away), THEN you'll start to see a change in attitude from the fanbase. Until then, it's a fool's hope.
October 1st, 2021 at 10:44 PM ^
I hope everyone on this blog reads this.
BRAVO!!!
October 2nd, 2021 at 12:00 AM ^
I couldn't have said it better. Indeed, bravo!
October 1st, 2021 at 6:22 PM ^
Good defense + at home + IF (admittedly a big IF) they can limit offensive turnovers === recipe that will win a team a good amount of football games.
That recipe has held for 100 years. No need to reinvent the analytical method on this one --- it likely will come down to UW turnovers.
I'm not betting it either way, that's for sure though, turnovers are still somewhat random in nature.
October 1st, 2021 at 6:25 PM ^
This would be the perfect game to try to win with offense but we're not going to do that so it will be a coin flip.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:32 PM ^
Given that winning a game by relying on the offense seems to be forbidden, that coin flip isn’t going to come out on our side, I don’t think.
October 1st, 2021 at 6:28 PM ^
OP’s user name sort of checks out?
October 1st, 2021 at 6:29 PM ^
Yes. What makes you believe we’ll be able to move the ball against Wisconsin? They give up next to nothing on the ground. So if we can’t move the ball on the ground, how well do you trust the passing game to move it? For only one half this year were we unable to move the ball on the ground. The result? 42 yards and 0 points. Against Rutgers.
Wisconsin’s offense has been a disaster, especially when it comes to untimely turnovers. But I trust their defense more than I trust ours unfortunately, especially at Wisconsin.
If we win it’s probably an ugly low scoring game where we won the turnover battle, which is probably exactly what the coaches are hoping for. I think that’s a tough ask for this defense, but I’d love to be wrong.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:12 PM ^
Brian did point out something that I think was important (certainly was for ND) is special teams. M special teams has been really good this year, especially with Henning returning the ball. Wiscy's special team has been almost as bad as the offense. A short field or even a return to the house could make the difference. At the very least it may tilt the field position game in favor of M.