The 'Michigan hasn't played anybody' myth...

 Michigan has played well and has won every game in convincing fashion. But don’t use the fallacy of transitive property to make your point that Michiganis better than some fans think. 

Not sure why people are being so hard on this take. Ohio State struggled for a lot of their game against 0-2 Tulsa. It’s true Michigan hasn’t played any, like, top 15 teams or anything yet. But annihilating weaker opponents and looking good doing so both can’t be taken for granted and does tell you something about a team 

It's a snapshot in time. Washington is not a world-beater and got 'App State'd but I think they'll win 7-8 games and go to a bowl when all said and done. Michigan State beating Miami on the road has nice cache, but Washington will end up having a much better year. Plus their win at Northwestern has already lost any glitter.

I do agree that on the road vs. Wisconsin and even following week at Nebraska (bad team but hostile environment) will tell us much more.

Looking at the top 25, on a neutral field, I feel we'd bludgeon Iowa State (on the road as well) , Iowa (no way they are 5), Coastal Carolina and yes, Notre Dame by at least 2 touchdowns with the run game.

There is just a different feel this year - it doesn't feel like smoke and mirrors. All around, blue-bloods like Clemson and Ohio State have drops in QB play , showing not all 5 stars are created equal.

SP+ and other similar analytics show that these early games do have meaning, and that level of competition is not an excuse to throw out data. And on the field, nobody has looked better than Michigan by SP+'s reckoning. So it's as good of a start as you could ask for. Now as Michigan fans we know how to be pessimistic, so we do have to consider the negative cases. It is possible that we just have this one elite unit (our running game) that is able to dominate lesser competition, but needs more help to compete with top notch teams. But for now, we should enjoy this team for what it is.

Since I became a Michigan fan, they've won their first three games 8 times and this is what it's gotten us:

Loss in Rose Bowl (but a win against OSU and a Big Ten Champ)

Loss in Rose Bowl

5-7 no bowl

Loss in Gator Bowl

SUGAR BOWL VICTORY AND A WIN AGAINST OSU(!)

Loss in BWW Bowl

Loss in Orange Bowl

Loss in Outback Bowl 

Are we sure some people aren't just tampering their expectations out of a sense of - you know - reality? Come on ya'll we've been here before. We know this rushing attack won't last all year. We don't know if we have a capable D or passing game yet. And sure the teams we played aren't the scrubbiest of scrubs, but at the same time no, we haven't played anyone on the level of the teams we need to beat to do anything significant - like  MSU, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. So I still say we haven't played anyone yet. The teams we've played are the teams we're supposed to crush by 50 points. No kudo points from me for a few more games.

It is nice to see an improvement over last year, but that's not saying much. Still keeping my expectations in check until we get through October.

That being said I'm definitely enjoying the games as they come! But 3 games isn't going to change the sting of our recent football history and our place in it.

Um, because they havent played anybody ?

Wisconsin, Indiana, Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State

Any of those soul crushing recent performances come to mind?

I'm holding my breath until we beat Wisconsin.

And assuming we beat MSU and don't get a late knee-capping in Happy Valley (before the annual OSUsual), I won't fully exhale until we come out mostly unscathed and on top. 

Western/Washington/NIU might look like a decent bunch at the end of the year but by that point it won't matter. At this moment we haven't played anyone of note, yes we've taken care of business and looked better than expected but that's about all you can say.

I get that arguing about this stuff is what college football is all about but after being burned by hot starts so many times (even going back to the RR days) I'm in the wait and see camp.

True story - My MSU slappy neighbors have already stated ‘no fear’ of Michigan this year. Some quotes from them:

- ‘We are not afraid of Michigan this year. None at all.’

- ‘MSU beat Miami at Miami who was ranked. We are better than you.’

Now, MSU beat a bad NW team that just lost again to Duke. Miami’s only win was to App State by 2 points with 2 blowout losses. 
 

Pride before the fall Sparty.  Pride before the fall.  

Now take Michigan out and replace it with Ohio State with the same score line. Still think the same way? Take those bias glasses off homie 

One thing I have not seen discussed much (or at all perhaps) is that we seem faster as a team than just about anytime in recent memory.  I’d love for some brilliant number crunching Michigan grad to prove or disprove this hypothesis.  But to my untrained eye, our skill players, in particular, just seem to be blazing fast - and we have more of them than I can recall.  Speed and depth.  Seems like Michigan always gets smoked by OSU and other teams with numerous super fast RBs, QBs and wide receivers.  Maybe we can actually keep up this year?

Football victory transitivity doesn't exist, let alone margin of victory transitivity.

I'm happy we're 3-0. I reserve judgment on this team, however, because of last year's strange Covid season, a million new coaches, and the bad taste in my mouth of several blowouts in 19-20. We play four ranked teams on the road, and then we play OSU. 

Again, I'm encouraged, but still feel that getting nine wins would be awesome.

We've been here before folks.  Lets not get ahead of ourselves

The program and team look GREAT right now, cant as for a better start, but lets enjoy this one game at a time shall we?  For the sake of our sanity :) 

They are handling these teams like good teams should, on to Rutgers. 


win at Wisconsin, Im ALLL the way in.  

What did Skene say ?

I hope someone here makes a scarlet letter list of those who said we would suck, and ripped me for saying we will win double digit games.

You have birthed a bit of a preemie here, my friend. Hit us up in two weeks. 

The short answer is...who cares? Starting in a couple of weeks, Michigan will play a bunch of teams that everyone agrees are “somebodies.” By then, what Michigan did during September will be irrelevant.

It’s crazy that non objective people get sucked into thinking Michigan is a world beater in September every year without an ounce of questioning it. 

It truly doesn’t matter. Play the next game. Win the next game. Repeat. If you lose, then we have more data. Otherwise just win the game, to quote Mitch McGary. If you keep winning it sorts itself out. There’s no use in trying to project or use transitive properties. We will see what this team is in the next 8 weeks.

Happy with the performances so far while simultaneously realizing the team has played a very easy schedule to date.

The real test is in the coming weeks.

I think those teams have some ability, but none of them are exactly top 20 type teams, which is really our measuring stick.  The games to watch are going to be Wiscy, MSU, Indiana, PSU, & OSU.  If UM can win 2-3 of those and just beat the bottom half of the league that's a 9-10 win season, which I think going into the year is above most expectations and in line with JH era expectations.

No reason to complain about an easy schedule or over hype at this point.  I'm super happy we're off to a good start.  Have a lot of talent.  But will reserve judgement until we play our tougher games.  GO BLUE!!

I don't get why people feel tey have to constantly battle perceived negativity--as if that is all there is here.

Just about every time someone complains or writes something that is not glowing or positive, they get jumped on and downvoted, and about 70 billion replies cursing them and shaming them to blog hell.

MOST of the people here seem to be fans to the utmost and love Michigan, mostly posting positive stuff!

Its those who create threads like this--fighting windmills, essentially--that really feed into negativity--AND why do they seem surprised that there are disagreements?

This blog has been this way for years--as all sports message boards are.

Everyone reaching to hard to prove the teams were better or worse.  Reality Western is better than teams want to admit.  Washington will be better when they get their receivers back, but that doesn't change the fact we also didn't have Ronnie Bell either..  NIU, for some reason some thought they would test our run defense and could put up a couple or few td's like they thought Western would.

Truth everyone knows is this team is good.  Getting better, sound fundamental team that is motivated.  How good they are now isn't as important as where they will be at the end of the year and how that final win total and ranking shows. 

For now, they're rolling teams and I'm having fun watching them again! 

The problem is that the quality of the teams we've played so far won't entirely become clear until later in the season or even after the season is over.

Western's victory over Pitt looked good. At the same time, it's not clear how good Pitt is. They beat Tennessee, but Tennessee only has wins over Bowling Green and Tennessee Tech (and the game was close enough that I kind of wonder what would have happened if Tennessee hadn't started Milton). They're *probably* a pretty good MAC team, but I'm not sure I'd go any further than that.

Washington might end up having a good season, but at this point they've lost to an FCS school and their lone win is against Arkansas State so it doesn't look like it. They'll have a chance to prove themselves in conference play (one way or another), but they haven't done it yet.

Northern Illinois beat a Georgia Tech team which played close to Clemson. They also lost a shootout to Wyoming.

Give it time. By the end of the season this will all have sorted itself out.

I get it. The bottom line is the Wisconsin game is going to be huge for this team. 
 

• Slow start on the road like a usual Harbaugh team? Same old Michigan
• Get absolutely manhandled by Wisconsin? Same old Michigan
• Lose a close one due to not being able to run the ball and/or sub-par QB play? Same old Michigan

If none of those three come true, then it’s time to get excited, as it’s clear that this team isn’t the 6-6 or 7-5 team that most figured it would be. Or in the case of Skene, better than his prediction of 4-8.

Painful experience....

I, personally, am encouraged by what the team has shown so far, even if it is against competition of uncertain quality. The signs are promising.

What we need, however, is to avoid injuries to important players on both sides of the ball. When we have done this in the past, the team has performed well (1997, and my own personal favorite, 1964). At other times, not so much, and I won't distress you by citing examples with which most of you are only too depressingly familiar, other than to note the impact upon our passing game against Washington of the loss of Ronnie Bell. We were lucky there that our powerful running game and our opponent's inflexible game plan enabled a comfortable win anyway, but it did reveal our lack of depth in some areas.

Since we have time to develop our other receivers before the competition stiffens, the outlook is still promising. One development I particularly appreciate is the added depth in the O and D lines, which rotation of players has helped. Against top-class teams, we have faded in the fourth quarter when our starters tire. This team should do better. Our opponents are more likely to worry about tiring if our run game remains relentless.

Go Blue!

Really at this point, just win the next game, the previous opponents don’t mean anything in regards to rutger. 1 game at a time. 

Totally get the cautious optimism, as well as the "we haven't done sh!t yet" attitudes (based on recent disappointments).  I tend to be a glass half full kind of guy, unless it's a good craft beer.  We've played well above most fans' expectations, and that's a good start.  We shall see soon. 

The offense seems pretty solid, but the defense may be excellent down the road as well.  Under a new coordinator, it is often mid-season before things click.  Learning a new scheme takes time before "thinking" becomes "automatic reaction" to situations.  So far they've performed pretty well, but it seems very reasonable to expect them to improve.  

I'm suffering from ALS.  I really thought 2020 would be my last season to watch...thank God it didn't end with that crap!  Please beat the f#ck out of Sparty and the Bucs so I can exit with a smile ?!

Also, many thanks to Brian, Seth, and staff for all the great coverage and entertainment over the years!  Go Blue!

They haven't beaten anyone true, but how many people were going on and on about Washington until Michigan beat them? Even after the game, people still were going on and on about how Washington "has a good defense, Michigan was afraid to throw on that good defense, that defensive line is great, etc., etc."

Win 7 or 10 games, this will still be a fun season watching the team improve. Looks like we have a full stable of great running backs, a good offensive line and two good QBs. The defense may be our weakness but if the offense can provide more ball control and time of possession, this will help out the defense and allow us to win some of the these tough road games.