Member for

15 years 1 month
Points
2130.00

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
This happens at other…

This happens at other programs all the time. It’s pretty common for head coaches to leave for the next higher level of the profession, and to take some of their staff with them. Every coach that departs is 100% committed to his current team, until he isn’t.

Harbaugh’s departure is pretty easily explainable, because he is leaving for the one thing he does not have on his resume that Michigan can’t provide: a Super Bowl ring. Besides, Harbaugh has been flirting with the NFL for several years. You think recruits don’t know this? Nobody could have been truly surprised by it.

It is not a program killer. We’re not used seeing a coach leave voluntarily for a higher-level job, but it is not unique just because Michigan fans have not seen it.

There is a congratulatory…

There is a congratulatory splash screen on the Big Ten website. Check it out right now, bigten.org. I am not sure there is any more that you could typically expect in such situations.

I had very similar feelings…

I had very similar feelings. Michigan should consider itself lucky to escape. I don’t know if it was a 50/50 proposition, but Ohio State had very good chances of scoring the winning TD on their final possession.

I would not have gone for it on 4th down. There is a very real difference between being up 3 and up 6, and it was 4th & 4, which isn’t a gimme. If it had been 4th & 1, I think Moore would have gone for it, but with 4 yards to go I agreed with taking the points.

But I would have liked a less predictable call on 3rd down. I think Brian pointed out that OSU was selling out on the run. A misdirection play had a pretty good chance of getting the 1st down.

I am not sure what this…

I am not sure what this Brady Hoke thing is about. Just because he is a Michigan Men does not mean he could coach the football team. Hoke was hired to build a winner, not to keep the seat warm. He is the world’s nicest man but that doesn't mean he was in the right job.

Michigan has not contested…

Michigan has not contested that Stalions broke the rule. If you look at Michigan's response to the Big Ten, it is clear they are acknowledging that he did what is alleged.

Yeah, Stalions ran a crappy vacuum repair business. But Michigan actually employed Stalions, which means they must have felt he was performing a useful service, even if his colleagues didn't know how he did it.

Your analogy to PI is misplaced. The rule itself states that it is not applicable if the pass was uncatchable. The referee doesn't just decide on his own to let it go: the rule says they have to. The rule Stalions broke has no such exception.

Several layers of nonsense…

Several layers of nonsense in this. Hazing is awful, but there isn't a specific NCAA or Big Ten rule about it. So it’s appropriate that the school handled it internally.

In contrast, Connor Stalions was violating a specific NCAA rule, in a way intended to give Michigan a concrete advantage over its opponents. Opinions vary about how much of an advantage Michigan actually received, but there's no doubt about what Stalions was trying to do.

And given that Stalions kept doing this over a long period of time, I would guess he derived some benefit, even if it was slight. Otherwise, why did he keep doing it?

When you break the rules, there is a penalty. For instance, if an offensive lineman holds and the official sees it, there is a flag. The official doesn’t say, “I think the team didn’t get much benefit, so I won’t call a penalty.” The penalty is for what you did, not whether it worked.

You should look up the…

You should look up the history of major sanctions against Alabama and Tennessee. They cooperated in exactly the way Michigan is doing.

It's true that some coaches…

It's true that some coaches have said that sign-stealing provides “an incremental advantage, at best.” But even an incremental advantage is still one you're not supposed to have, if you got it illegally. And there are also some coaches who have said the advantage is a lot more than that. At this point we want to believe the advantage is minimal, but that doesn't make it so.

You have to figure that when Stalions went through all that effort, he believed he was getting something useful out of it.

Ohio State vacated its entire 2010 season because of a few tattoos. Ohio State didn’t get any better at football because a handful of players were tattooed, and yet that was the penalty. So what do you expect the penalty to be in this case?

Not only that, but the way…

Not only that, but the way Conner went about it strongly suggests that it was not above-board. I mean...if the rules allow this, then why was a guy making $55k a year buying the tickets? Why didn't the multi-million-dollar athletic department do it?

I've got a few questions on…

I've got a few questions on this. If it's straight-up legal to hire third parties to scout in person, then why was a low-level staffer buying tickets in his own name and then transferring them to other people? That doesn't seem like something you would do if you think this is legal.

And why did Harbaugh issue a denial? If this was legal, then why didn't he just say "We did this because the rules allow it"? And if the rules allow it, why haven't other teams been doing the same?

I've got a few questions on…

I've got a few questions on this. If it's straight-up legal to hire third parties to scout in person, then why was a low-level staffer buying tickets in his own name and then transferring them to others? That doesn't seem like something you do if you think this is legal.

And why did Harbaugh issue a denial? If this was legal, then why didn't he just say "We did this because the rules allow it"? And if the rules allow it, why haven't other teams been doing the same?

The typical number of…

The typical number of undefeated teams by the end of the season is usually no more than three, so you know that most of these teams are going to lose. It is only a matter of when.

On paper, none of them should lose this weekend, but UNC should not have lost to Virginia either, and yet they did.

Over 90% of conference…

Over 90% of conference realignment rumors are false. This was one of the <10%.

If UM were to straight-up…

If UM were to straight-up ignore the suspension, then the sanctions get worse. Even programs that have done far worse (Ohio State, Alabama, SMU) have always accepted sanctions when they eventually come out.

Most conference realignment…

Most conference realignment rumors are untrue. I am not saying it can’t happen — of course it can — but the odds are against it simply because most of these rumors don’t come true.

The vast majority of…

The vast majority of conference re-alignments are for money. Actually, just about all of them. So as long as Nebraska has made more money — which it has — they aren’t going anywhere.

Teams have controlled their…

Teams have controlled their nonconference schedules for many years, and it has generally turned out fine. The Big Ten did mandate at least one P5 game for a short while, although there were liberal exceptions. For instance, they counted the service academies as "P5", which they obviously are not.

Michigan had a home & home with UCLA that was cancelled, and that explains the lame schedules the past 2 years. Other than that, Michigan has just about always scheduled a P5 opponent voluntarily.

You've misunderstood what…

You've misunderstood what Option 3 ("Flex Protect") means. In Options 1 and 2, each school has the same number of protected games every year. In Option 3, they protect what is needed, and this can vary from school to school.

In Option 1 ("Protect 3"), inevitably some of the protected games will seem arbitrary. For instance, try to come up with three "rivals" for Rutgers that make sense — you can't do it. USC and UCLA do not have obvious annual rivals, except each other.

In Option 3, some teams will have 3 protected games, others will have 2 or 1. I guarantee that Michigan will have at least two. There is no way they are letting UM-MSU off the schedule. That is not happening.

The spread is the amount…

The spread is the amount required to attract equal action on both sides of the bet. It does not reflect Vegas's view of who will actually win by what amount.

If there were pick-em odds a week ago, most likely there were more OSU bettors taking those odds than Michigan bettors, so they moved the line.

It's hard to beat the same team twice in one year. TCU beat K-State in the regular season, but lost to them in the Big XII championship game. Last year, Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC championship game but lost to them in the title game.

I wish I had a dollar for…

I wish I had a dollar for every bad projection people have made about freshmen. Is the potential there? Sure. But there are lots of reasons it might not happen, along with a few why it might.

Since Woodson is one of the best corners in the history of football, that's a lot to live up to. Johnson could be stellar, and yet not be Woodson. Bear in mind, Woodson played offense and returned kicks, neither of which Johnson has done yet. I would not be surprised if they try him out on punt returns next season, but I have no idea if he has that kind of explosiveness.

We can compare their freshman campaigns. Woodson as a freshman was first-team all-conference and had five picks, things Johnson has not done.

I don't think that was ESPN…

I don't think that was ESPN bias. Many non-ESPN outlets were making that comparison too. I think that's because USC was surely going to drop out, with OSU replacing them. If you were going to debate anything, it could only be Alabama.

In truth, these were about the least suspenseful college football playoff rankings ever. But when you've got a previously scheduled sports show, you've got to find stuff to talk about. That can include creating a debate over something that is in fact obvious.

I am sure they will go to 16 eventually: it will be irresistible to add four more lucrative games that can easily be accommodated without lengthening the season. But the jump from four to 12 is pretty big. I think they will wait to see how that works before the inevitable expansion talk begins again.

But I don't see them doing away with conference championship games. Those games are money-spinners, and that's revenue the sponsoring conferences do not have to share.

There are no autobids for…

There are no autobids for the Power Five champs. The autobids go to the top six champs, without distinguishing the P5. It will usually work the way you said, but the possibility exists for two G5 champs to make it in.

It would matter at the…

It would matter at the margins. Michigan is far enough ahead of TCU that it won't matter, especially as they already beat Ohio State without him.

Sure, the committee is…

Sure, the committee is subjective, but what exactly can you do? Their rankings are within the ZIP code of the traditional polls, and we have lived with those for our entire lives. Just understand that until the final poll, these rankings are purely an intellectual exercise.

The “conference championships won” criterion does not refer to prior years. It is only this year, and obviously is not considered at this stage since nobody has won any championships yet.

I have no issues with the SEC’s top team being ranked ahead of Michigan. We are only 10 months removed from the last time Michigan played Georgia, and both teams still have a lot of the same players. Any rational voter would conclude that Georgia is very likely the better team. If both keep winning, it will be settled on the field. For now, I am fine with it.

Teams don’t play the same number of conference games, and non-conference schedules are very inconsistent. Poll voters have always had to deal with this and probably always will.

I would count as "miraculous…

I would count as "miraculous" any win that turned on a low-probability play, even if the other side’s good execution was a part of it too. Thus, I would count The Horror rather than excluding it.

But it is wrong to think of these losses as bad luck alone. In the 2015 game, Michigan had a 9-point lead midway through Q4 until it surrendered 74 yards on a wheel route. Michigan had seven 3-and-outs in that game. It also settled for FGs three times in the red zone. On its final possession, it needed just one first down to win, and didn’t get it.

Sure, if Michigan does all those things, but catches the last snap, they still win. But if they do a few other things right, that play either doesn't exist or doesn't matter.

Reminds me of the posts…

Reminds me of the posts suggesting Michigan football would be better without Denard at QB.

We may never know, but I…

We may never know, but I would not over-think. It was widely reported that Harbaugh was prepared to take the job if offered. Therefore, I would assume it was not offered, and that is that. I am not going to believe it was a mutual non-fit, unless there is compelling evidence of that.

Of course Jim Harbaugh loves Michigan. That is not inconsistent with wanting another opportunity to win a Super Bowl.

There’s no doubt that this is a recruiting negative. How could it be otherwise? There are NFL openings every year, and Harbaugh will always be on the rumored shortlist. Now, if a few years go by and he never interviews again, then maybe it would die down. For now, no kid could be sure that Harbaugh will be there to the end of his eligibility.

I think Gattis was most likely next-in-line, assuming they filled it in-house. Given the choice of a position coach and a coordinator who just won the Broyles award, how could it not be the latter? Mike Hart could be a head coach someday, but almost no one goes from position coach straight to head coach, especially at a program like Michigan.

Absolutely right. Woodson…

Absolutely right. Woodson played defense, offense, and kick returns. Great as he was, he would not have won with defense alone.

In any normal year a #1 team…

In any normal year a #1 team that gets smoked in their own home state by 17 points doesn't just go to #4, they'd be out of the picture.

That is simply wrong. In any normal year, Georgia would remain in the top 4 based on this loss. If you push Georgia to 5th, who is 4th? Surely not Notre Dame, which has one less win, lost to Cincinnati at home, and didn’t have to face a conference championship game. All of the other candidates for #4 have even bigger flaws on their resume than the Irish do.

So no, it is not due to “SEC love” that Georgia will easily make the top four. In fact, I might rank them higher than Cincinnati. Aside from their win over Notre Dame, the Bearcats have played a bunch of relative nobodies.

 

Yes, in some ways #5 is…

Yes, in some ways #5 is better than #4, as you get the privilege of another home game in which you will be heavily favored. However, there are drawbacks. Occasionally #5 will lose, or suffer key injuries. Nobody has suggested second-round games at campus sites. It will be January by that point.

I have not seen specific revenue-sharing proposals, but the existing system has a mix of shared revenue and payouts to the specific teams that qualify. I am sure this new system would work that way too. Of course, a home team is going to have collateral revenues like concessions and parking that it does not have to share.

Well, that is the …

Well, that is the “traditional” argument, but if you were starting a sport today, who on earth would suggest a system where the best teams don’t play each other, and then a vote of sportswriters decides who the champion was?

Money in college sports has been a constant since before we were born. People complained when Fielding H. Yost raised ticket prices so that he could build Michigan Stadium.

Oklahoma State will be in…

Oklahoma State will be in the top four if they beat Baylor and all of the other favorites win. Alabama would drop out of the top four with a loss to Georgia, which leaves the #5 Cowboys as the obvious beneficiaries. It requires no insider information to see that.

The one thing they absolutely don’t want — along with the rest of us — is an Alabama win. Then they would need another upset among the top group, or they would need to hope that the Committee would leapfrog them over Cincinnati.

Yes, the Rose Bowl is in a…

Yes, the Rose Bowl is in a class by itself. Other bowls, including the Sugar, are far less particular about the date played or the participants. In the BCS era, the other bowls moved around a lot, whereas the Rose has always held onto the 4pm January 1st slot.

I question the premise that …

I question the premise that “there is no super dominant team” this year. Georgia has not trailed in the second half all year, and only briefly trailed a couple of times in the first. They have incinerated most of their opponents. That seems super dominant to me.

That doesn't mean U-M can’t beat them, should they get the chance — anybody can be beat. But they are not as soft as Ohio State, for whom Michigan spent almost a year preparing.

Michigan was leading by 8…

Michigan was leading by 8 when Hutchinson recorded that sack. It was a great play, but we can’t really say it decided the game by itself.

In the Nebraska game, the Huskers were at their own 34 when Hawkins forced the fumble. It was a huge play, but without it they still need to gain significant yardage to be in position for a potential game-winning FG.

Of the three, All's catch is the closest to “without it, they lose.”

I have to go with #1,…

I have to go with #1, because Michigan was trailing: if they don't score, they lose.

I agree with this. If…

I agree with this. If Rodriguez could have fielded just a functional defense in 2010, I think he would have gotten another year, because the offense was steadily improving.

In contrast, Brady Hoke was the opposite: he understood defense but could not field a functional offense, except when he had Denard, the QB that Rodriguez had recruited.

In your scenario, I think…

In your scenario, I think Baylor likely gets the fourth spot. The Committee is supposed to give an extra bump to conference champs. Baylor would have avenged one of their two losses, and the other was by 2 points on the road @TCU.

But it's a close call and I would not be shocked if Alabama got in, contingent upon all of your assumptions proving true.

The early doubts about…

The early doubts about McNamara made some sense. The calls to replace him with McCarthy did not. At no point in the season was McCarthy performing better overall, other than in garbage-time appearances against already-beaten inferior opponents.

It got crazier as the calls to replace McNamara continued deep into the season, in spite of mounting evidence that McCarthy was not yet ready to take over as the starter. The coaches did a great job of balancing the two, and both players handled it well — one of the rare cases where rotating QBs actually made a team better.

Yes, exactly right. Almost…

Yes, exactly right. Almost every neutral forecaster and many Michigan partisans predicted the same. Given how the two teams had played up to that point, it was a fair guess. I follow at least four Michigan blogs/newsletters, and all had basically the same prediction Eleven Warriors did.

Go read Eleven Warriors now. Their post-game reaction is also very fair. Naturally, they are unhappy. But they don't blame the refs or bad luck. They acknowledge their team was flat-out beaten in all phases of the game.

It seems like — other than…

It seems like — other than dropped passes — all of your other “things that could go wrong” are being blamed on other people. That is a failure of imagination. Those things could happen, sure, but the two teams themselves have many more ways to help/hurt their chances.

People sometimes forget, that before the famous "JT was short" spot, Michigan had Curtis Samuel dead to rights behind the line of scrimmage before Jabrill Peppers overran the play, and allowed Samuel to turn 3rd & 9 into 4th & 1. It helps to make your own luck, rather than depending on other people. If Peppers had made the tackle he usually makes, OSU would have been attempting a FG there.

I am also thankful that…

I am also thankful that Michigan isn't coach-shopping. However, your premise is not realistic. If Michigan was in the market, it wouldn't get the 4th ("at best") choice after the first three take LSU, USC, and UF.

You are right that coach shopping often doesn't turn out well. Look at Texas. They fired Tom Herman last year, and then scraped even farther down the barrel with Steve Sarkesian. They should have kept Herman.

Especially in the second…

Especially in the second half, timeouts are too valuable in an end-of-game situation to use them like in basketball. You take a time-out if you must, but every coach wants to have all three remaining for the two-minute drill, in case they are needed. Also, in basketball you can carry over up to two time-outs into the second half; in football, you cannot.

Obviously, you must be prepared for tempo, and in the MSU game Michigan was not. With only three TOs per half, that cannot be your answer for tempo. Michigan probably should have used some of their TOs, but there were more than six plays in that game when Michigan wasn’t properly set.

No 2-loss team has ever made…

No 2-loss team has ever made the playoff. For Michigan to make the playoff with 2 losses, they would need a lot of help.

This does not reflect the…

This does not reflect the probability of winning. It reflects a spread that Vegas believes will attract equal action on both sides. History shows they are very good at predicting that.

Michigan is 38th on the list…

Michigan is 38th on the list — not as lucky as MSU, but still comfortably in the top half.

You are legally correct, but…

You are legally correct, but if all the conferences (plus Notre Dame) agree, it is pretty unlikely that anyone else would hold it up. That's why the 10 FBS commissioners (plus the Notre Dame A.D.) are in the room — and not any of those other people.

Just a few points to…

Just a few points to embellish this...

  • 100% of the participants agree the playoff should expand. The only serious argument now is whether it should be 8 or 12. No one in charge believes that 4 permanently is the right number.
  • If there is 100% agreement, they could tear up the contracts and expand for the 2024–25 season. If anyone balks, then the earliest chance to expand would be the 2026–27 season, after all of the current contracts expire.
  • A 12-team playoff is the only option that adds revenue. An 8-team format would not add revenue because it would not create any new games; it would just re-designate four of the New Year's bowls that are currently exhibitions as quarterfinal games.

The proposed 8-team format is pretty straightforward. Four New Year's bowls would be quarterfinals. Two other New Year's bowls would be semifinals (but not the Rose, which wants to retain its permanent spot on New Year's Day). The final would be bid separately, as it is now.

With the 12-team format, there are a lot of other issues, like where and when to play the first round. (The original proposal was to host the first round at campus sites, the week after the conference championship games.)

In the 8-team proposal, six of the eight would be conference champs, including at least one non-power five champ. That would leave two at-large spots. In the 12-team proposal, there would be 6 at-large spots.

According to every article I have read, most conferences prefer the 12-team format. The Big Ten and the ACC seem to be the ones holding out for 8. Remember that if the contracts are going to be torn up early, 100% have to agree. But the Big Ten and the ACC could only hold things up for an additional 2 years. Once the contracts expire, they no longer have the same leverage.

Of course the Big 12 will…

Of course the Big 12 will raise Cincinnati's profile. Even without Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 is a much stronger conference than the AAC. And one thing is for sure: Cincinnati will make a lot more money there.

The Big 12 will not be as strong as before. Still, any AAC team would take a Big 12 invite in a heartbeat—as Cincinnati just did. They all wanted in.

There is no legal definition of what constitutes the "Power 5," but those 5 conferences have NCAA autonomy. Nobody is talking about taking that away.

It's not accurate to…

It's not accurate to attribute all of the toss-up losses to the refs or luck.

Last week's game was more poorly officiated than most. But beyond the officials' mistakes, there were even more plays where Michigan controlled its destiny and didn't execute.