Michigan opens as one-point dog to PSU; over/under 52.5
November 7th, 2021 at 2:43 PM ^
Surprised UM is an underdog. Having said that, media and the like don't trust Harbaugh and this team in big games. Hoping we can control the clock with the run game and pass as needed to secure the win.
Corum being able to play goes a long way towards success in the run game
November 7th, 2021 at 2:48 PM ^
If homefield is worth three points to the oddsmakers, making us +1 at State College is saying we'd be a very slight favorite on a neutral field.
November 8th, 2021 at 6:13 AM ^
I'm glad this is a day game at Happy Valley.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:59 PM ^
As the other poster said, that line basically says that Michigan is slightly better but not enough to be favored on the road. I however hope we stay an underdog and Harbaugh gets to grab another underdog victory on the road to bash that old stat into oblivion.
November 7th, 2021 at 4:57 PM ^
I don't think a single win on the road as an underdog would bash that stat into oblivion haha, maybe a few with an OSU win and that narrative changes
November 7th, 2021 at 6:59 PM ^
November 7th, 2021 at 2:46 PM ^
Fair? PSU stinks. I think we win by double digits
November 7th, 2021 at 2:51 PM ^
PSU has a better defense than UM.
With a healthy Clifford, they have a better offense than UM.
They would have beaten overrated Iowa with a healthy Clifford and the Illinois loss was a brutal mulligan. They played OSU close.
On the road, this game is basically a pick em between 2 equally talented teams.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:06 PM ^
Better defense I'll give you, but I'm not convinced PSU has a better offense than Michigan. Dotson without question is a big time player, but outside of that... I'm not sure what else they can hang their hat on offensively. Any team that needs 9 OT to score 16 points on Illinois is suspect IMO. Don't care what the injury report says.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:34 PM ^
Using the Illinois game to judge PSU instead of the OSU game is incredibly naive. I’m glad you’re not the coach.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:44 PM ^
How about the Wisconsin game?
OSUs defense is maybe the 6th best in the conference. PSU pushing them around a little bit isn't that big of an accomplishment.
November 8th, 2021 at 6:19 AM ^
Ohio State has the #13 defense in the country to SP+.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^
Penn State has no run game. Like at all. Much like us, they are 1 dimensional which has lead to issues in all their losses (Clifford being hurt meant they literally had no way to score). At least we can pass when we need to, Penn State can't run when they need it and they've paid for for it
November 7th, 2021 at 4:07 PM ^
Why? And also what difference does it make whether it's the Illinois game, or Ohio State or Wisconsin? Penn State does not have a potent offense, they just happen to have one excellent offensive player in Dotson.
Have a look at their offensive production and tell me how they're clearly a better offense than Michigan. By any advanced metric Michigan is a top 20 offense and PSU is outside the top 50. I would reassert my point, if Penn State can't reach 20 points after 9 overtimes against Illinois, then I'm not convinced they will be able to score consistently against Michigan.
The remainder of the fan base can breathe easy knowing both you and I are not the coach.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/penn-state/2021.html
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/fei/overalloff/2020
November 8th, 2021 at 7:30 AM ^
Michigan scored 38 at Wisconsin vs Psu 16. Psu d is good there offense is sub par. Michigan should win as they are the better team.
November 7th, 2021 at 4:54 PM ^
You don’t remember Parker Washington from our game last year? That dude can play. Even their 3rd leading WR has as many catches as our leading receiver so they have weapons on the outside and just as importantly - they actually use them.
Now part of the reason they use them is because their running game is not good. As a result I’ve seen them use a lot of quick passes as their running game. So the big cushion that Michigan sometimes gives may need to be adjusted unless you want to give them 5 yds all day and trust your tackling.
Clifford is a wildcard. He can run, but is he healthy enough right now to consistently be an issue? If he’s not and just sits back in the pocket, our DEs will most definitely have a chance to tee off. I imagine will see a lot of quick passes to avoid that. Michigan will need to tackle well.
On the other side of the ball, Penn State’s strength is their big secondary. Our ability to run and use the TEs over the middle as our main passing weapon can take away from their strength some though. Need Hassan to have his best game yet and hope All is ready to roll. Schoonmaker coming off a big game certainly helps either way as he will likely get some targets this game. If we’re consistently relying on our WRs this game that’ll spell trouble.
It’s a toss up game, but Michigan can absolutely win this one. Be grateful it’s not a night game though.
The Illinois game happened, but this Penn State team could be (and probably would be if not for the QB injury) a Top 10 ranked team whose only loss was at Ohio State in a competitive game.
November 7th, 2021 at 5:46 PM ^
I think this is a fair, well-considered post. Thanks.
You said:
If he’s not and just sits back in the pocket, our DEs will most definitely have a chance to tee off.
Penn State's offensive line is quite poor. They have been overwhelmed all year. But, this also means that their offensive coaching staff has experience scheming plans to mitigate this disadvantage.
Michigan is ranked 62nd in the country in sacks. Penn State has played some other teams with very good pass rushes and have passed the ball quite successfully. They played Ohio State (#4 nationally in sacks), Wisconsin (#18 in sacks), Maryland (#23 in sacks), and Auburn (#46 in sacks).
In those contests, Penn State had a (relatively) healthy Clifford and they passed for 361, 247, 363 and 302 yards. They will have some success passing on Michigan.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:54 PM ^
Against Wisconsin:
Michigan gained 365 yards, allowed 210 yards. Michigan scored 38 points, allowed 17 points.
Penn St. gained 297 yards, allowed 365 yards. Penn State scored 16 points, allowed 10 points.
Michigan's offense was much better. And, even though Michigan allowed more points, 7 of Wisconsin's points were in garbage time and Michigan allowed a lot fewer yards. I'd say Michigan's defense was significantly better as well.
Against Indiana:
Michigan gained 411 yards, allowed 195 yards. Michigan scored 29 points and allowed 7 points.
Penn St. gained 408 yards, allowed 264 yards. Penn State scored 24 points and allowed 0 points.
The offenses were about even, but Michigan did gain more yards and score more points. Penn State's defense here might have been slightly better allowed 0 points, but Michigan held Indiana under 200 yards.
November 7th, 2021 at 5:52 PM ^
Penn State played against Penix for the first half. He got injured at with 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Then Penn State played against Tuttle. These are Indiana's first and second string quartbacks.
Michigan played against someone named McCulley, a true freshman third stringer starting his second game ever.
November 8th, 2021 at 8:43 AM ^
And Penix sucks this year so what exactly is your point?
November 11th, 2021 at 4:11 PM ^
The point is that Tom Allen told the whole world that Penix is better than Tuttle who is better than McCulley. Or, Penix sucks, Tuttle sucks more, McCulley sucks most. Michigan played against McCulley.
November 7th, 2021 at 5:43 PM ^
Disagree. I've watched PSU a few times and while they're OL and running attack is really subpar, their defense is rock solid. This one worries me
November 7th, 2021 at 2:47 PM ^
Very fair assuming Clifford is healthy. All these top 25 B1G teams, besides OSU, are essentially putting out the same amount of talent onto the field and it comes down to matchups, officiating, and a few high leverage plays.
November 7th, 2021 at 2:50 PM ^
Did they not lose their best player on defense?
November 7th, 2021 at 3:24 PM ^
Mustipher is definitely their best interior defensive linemen (not sure if their best overall defender), and I believe he is out for the year. If they lost another player I must have missed it.
November 7th, 2021 at 2:49 PM ^
Is this because they played OSU tight? Did they forget that this team lost to Illinois? Or do they know something about M's injury that we don't?
Michigan should win this game big, except for refs and injuries.
November 7th, 2021 at 2:53 PM ^
I think we can win, but win big? In State College? I don't know about that.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:03 PM ^
Lol. I see what you mean. My win big here by two scores. May be that is too big. I just feel like ILL paved them on the ground without PSU's best def player and HH should be able to do the same.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:37 PM ^
I’ll take that bet. You take M winning by over 13 pts and I’ll take the under. I’ll even give you odds, what do you say?
November 7th, 2021 at 3:57 PM ^
I don't bet. Sorry. I said two scores. That could be by 10. I still contend they win by 10. You can call me out next Saturday.
November 7th, 2021 at 7:17 PM ^
I think a lot of it has to do with Clifford being finally healthy. He makes a big difference in that team. They just don't have any depth at QB
November 7th, 2021 at 2:49 PM ^
had to be tough to set a line with so much in the air re: injuries.
i can foresee a slog in (un)happy valley, and if you can't get offensive #'s 1,2, and 3 back on the field it could be an ugly day.
November 7th, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^
This is a weird line. On the books I look at, it opened UM -2. One of those now has it PSU -1.5, and another one has it a pick 'em. It will settle somewhere around a pick 'em, I'd imagine.
November 7th, 2021 at 4:15 PM ^
Concur that the injury situation might have something to do with line movement.
November 7th, 2021 at 2:58 PM ^
If UM gets good news on Henning, Green, and Anthony, that line will move to UM -2 on gameday (sorry everyone, but Corum clearly sprained his ankle. Walking boot = sprained ankle. No way Corum plays vs PSU.)
November 7th, 2021 at 3:01 PM ^
You could be right, but ankle sprains run a huge range in severity, from causing you to miss a couple days to many weeks.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:05 PM ^
Disagree.
Even a mild lower ankle sprain keeps a player out two weeks. A high ankle sprain is a minimum of four weeks. Hope it's a lower ankle sprain.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:22 PM ^
32 years of experience in ankle sprains says you are wrong.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:30 PM ^
43 years of ankle sprains says YOU ARE WRONG.
See how easy it is to claim something false on the internet? Clearly, this hasnt been your first falsehood.
Corum's out vs PSU. Deal with it. You will get over it. I promise.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:44 PM ^
So you just admitted you made something up, and yet you want us all to just believe you and this diagnosis you keep making all over the site?
I'm not sure this post did what you thought it was going to...
November 7th, 2021 at 3:41 PM ^
You can’t definitely say this without having examined the injury. Even then, some people heal faster than others, and it can depend on whether the player has previously had ankle injuries.
I will say that if he was in a boot last night, that’s probably not a great sign for the PSU game, but we’ll see.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:47 PM ^
What the actual hell?
Grow up.
November 7th, 2021 at 5:16 PM ^
Yeah, this isn't really how it works. There is a spectrum of severity when it comes to sprains. Guys play on mild sprains all the time. High ankle sprains for sure take more time to heal, but I haven't seen any confirmation this is the diagnosis. By the sound of it, both Corum and Harbaugh seem to be cautiously optimistic he could be available. My guess is he'll dress for Penn State, but only play in emergency situations.
https://www.maizenbrew.com/football/2021/11/6/22767749/michigan-football-blake-corum-injury
November 7th, 2021 at 3:53 PM ^
Don’t get me wrong, Corum is a great player, but I really don’t think having to rely on Haskins to carry the load hurts our chances at all.
November 7th, 2021 at 8:09 PM ^
I agree, no way Corum plays against PSU or Maryland....hoping he gets back for OSU, but I doubt it.
At least he's back next year.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:10 PM ^
This does not reflect the probability of winning. It reflects a spread that Vegas believes will attract equal action on both sides. History shows they are very good at predicting that.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:14 PM ^
What is the source for these odds?
Draftkings has it as a pk, Oddshark has UM -2.5, and Sportline has UM -1.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:25 PM ^
Circa LV
November 7th, 2021 at 3:28 PM ^
Is this the first game Michigan is an underdog? I think they've been favorites every game, and are 7-2-0 against the spread.
November 7th, 2021 at 3:31 PM ^
We were either (depending on the book) a 1 or 2 pt underdog against Wisconsin in Madison