Championship Weekend: A Rooters Guide

I appreciate your insight here OP but candidly I will not give two shits on what happens before our game Saturday night.  

My rooting interest consists of one game and one game only.  Ours.

"If Georgia doesn't beat Bama in ATL now, it's fair to question whether anyone else will." 

I don't understand this logic. I would say it the other way. If Bama doesn't beat Georgia, will anyone?

Here's a question: let's say Michigan*, Georgia, Baylor, and Houston all win.  The playoff teams are now Georgia, Michigan, ND, and...who?  Would Bama still be the 4th team if they give UGA a good game? 

I

EDIT: *So that we are not smitten by the sports gods, I should note that I am not assuming a Michigan victory.  This is merely a thought experiment, oh wrathful ones!

Rooting interest? Michigan!

End thread.

IDGAF.... GO BLUE

I don't see OK State finishing 4th if they beat Baylor. If they beat Baylor, they'll jump Cincy IMO. OK State would have two wins over Baylor, a win over Oklahoma, plus wins over Kansas St and WVU. Only loss is to a respectable Iowa St team. Cincy might be undefeated but they only have two wins against power conference competition and one of those teams went winless in their conference. They beat ND, which is a big win. But their next biggest wins would be SMU and Houston. Neither of which are impressive and will be ranked. 

I think it would be Georgia, Michigan, Ok State, then Cincinnati. They've only got Cincinnati where they are because the rest of the power conference teams keep losing. Ok State would have a more impressive resume even with the one loss. 

I somewhat echo MGrowOld's focus on the one game that matters--win and we're in--but, for the first time this year, I feel like I can really eyeball the larger implications of what happens and enjoy it. And, for our purposes, IF we win, chalk results are good. Because I like the playoff mix the way it is, with Bama and OSU well behind deserving but beatable candidates. 

A Bama win probably puts us in a semifinal with Georgia, which I'd prefer to avoid. A Georgia win without huge chaos downballot draws in Cincy and either Oklahoma State or Notre Dame. But if those two teams lose then you're starting to look at chaos candidate teams with two losses. And one of those could be OSU, which I don't want to see make the playoff even if they get annihilated by Georgia, because I want our win to keep them out. It'd be them or Baylor or Oregon or Bama, I guess (behind Notre Dame, whose season is finished) and I'd rather not chance it. Cincinnati beating Houston eliminates such a team from a playoff berth. 

I'm good with any scenario that has M in the playoff and Bama on the couch. 

This is fun. The team needs to play like Iowa is the most important game of their lives, we're allowed to watch the earlier conference games and fantasize the best possible path.

Relax, embrace it and enjoy the ride.

UM's gotta take care of Iowa first, but count me in to facing a failed OSU HC who might be not-so-secretly negotiating a contract to coach somewhere else.

I actually expect CFP standings tomorrow to be

1. GA
2. Mich
3. OkSt
4. Cincy

I don't care about Notre Dame, OkSt, Baylor, or Cincy, because those aren't the teams that matter to us.

My focus is that I don't want to avoid GA in the first round. I'd rather have a month to gameplan and practice our win against them, and then the shorter amount of time for whoever the lesser opponent is.

Right now, I think we beat everybody. It just sets up better if we have more prep time for Georgia. I just don't know how we get there without GA losing. We certainly aren't dropping to 4. As long as the team itself doesn't take Iowa as a foregone conclusion, I reserve my right as a fan to assume that we are going to beat them.

I care about one game and care a little about the Georgia-Alabama game, but that is it. I'd prefer Georgia win, because I want to avoid them in the semi-final. I know we'd have to beat them to be champions, but I want that to be in the title game, not before. Otherwise, I think we'd have a very good chance at beating every other team in the semi-final, so all I'm worried about is beating Iowa.

Assuming that we beat Iowa (not because that's a guarantee by any means, but because if we don't, none of this matters), we will probably be the #2 seed regardless of other results.

I see the "decision tree" of other results as follows:

• Georgia is definitely in the playoff no matter what. They're the #1 seed if they win the SEC, and the #3 or #4 seed if they lose (in which case Alabama would likely rise to #1).
• If Cincinnati beats Houston in the AAC Championship, Cincinnati would probably be #3, setting up a first-round matchup with Michigan. The only way Cincinnati wouldn't be #3 is if UGA loses and the committee decides to keep them above Cincinnati at #3, with Cincinnati at #4.
• If Cincinnati loses the AAC Championship, they're out.
  • In that case, if UGA wins then ND would almost definitely make the playoff, making the playoff Georgia, Michigan, ND, and Oklahoma State, and setting up a likely first-round matchup of #2 Michigan vs. #3 Notre Dame.
  • If UGA loses, then the playoff would likely be Alabama, Michigan, Georgia, and ND (unless they get jumped by Oklahoma State), in which case Georgia would probably be #3

Since we'll definitely be in the #2-#3 game if we make the playoff, our potential opponents are:

• UGA, if UGA loses and either the committee keeps them above Cincinnati or Cincinnati also loses. This might be the worst-case scenario for our first-round matchup. UGA is a beast (they've won each of their past 11 games by 17+ points) and would likely be favored by a TD or more against Michigan.
• Cincinnati, if Cincinnati and UGA both win. I feel good about a potential first-round matchup with Cincinnati - they're a good team, but have had some close calls against mediocre AAC teams. Looking at their schedule, they've been roughly as impressive against their relatively mediocre schedule as Michigan has against its significantly better schedule.
• Notre Dame, if UGA wins and Cincinnati loses and either Baylor beats OKSt or OKSt doesn't win impressively. This matchup would be great, because we aren't scheduled to play ND until 2033. ND is 11-1, but has played an almost comically bad schedule. Only 3 of their 12 opponents have winning records: 8-4 Wisconsin, 8-4 Purdue, and Cincinnati, who beat ND in South Bend. Who knows how this would go, but it would be fun.
• Oklahoma State, if UGA wins, Cincinnati loses, and OKSt beats Baylor impressively enough to jump over ND. Oklahoma State is good, but is probably the weakest potential opponent we could face.

Personally, this weekend I'm rooting for:

• Georgia, both to knock out Alabama and so we don't have to play them in the first round;
• Cincinnati, because it would be fun for a G5 team to make the playoff and they could knock out Notre Dame;
• Oklahoma State to absolutely crush Baylor and leapfrog ND; and
• Michigan, of course.

You don't need any rooting interests outside of Michigan. Win and we're in. Its that simple. 

They will not pass up a name brand, conference champ with only 1 loss on the road by 1 score to a highly ranked bitter rival.

Not a chance in a hell. 

Beat Iowa. 

I imagine we'd want scenarios where UM wins (so we'd be #2) and plays Cincinnati, ND or OK State as #3 (in that order). There is a scenario where we play UGA (if Bama beats them and takes #1) which I'd really rather not

Oregon and Baylor are in the mix too but I don't think there is a scenario where they would be #3 (because Cincinnati or ND)

We have a better chance vs. Cincy, but damnit how glorious would it be to beat ND?