Opponents winning % factor for CFP ranking
Here's the winning percentage of the top 10 teams in the CFP.
Win-Loss Records of FBS Opponents for CFP Top-10 Teams
- No. 10 Notre Dame, 39-26 (60.0%)
- No. 7 Michigan, 38-27 (58.5%)
- No. 1 Georgia, 37-28 (56.9%)
- No. 2 Alabama, 30-26 (53.6%)
- No. 5 Ohio State, 34-30 (53.1%)
- No. 3 Michigan State, 27-30 (47.4%)
- No. 9 Wake Forest, 27-30 (47.4%)
- No. 4 Oregon, 27-31 (46.6%)
- No. 6 Cincinnati, 24-32 (42.9%)
- No. 8 Oklahoma, 26-40 (39.4%)
Michigan being at 2 in this probably what kept them from falling farther than #7.
Oregon has a low opponents percentage. But, they have a good win, over Ohio St. That puts them high in the CFP rankings.
Alabama is at 4th in opponent percentage, and they also have some good wins, particularly a domination of Ole Miss. Thus the high ranking. If they continue winning, and Georgia too, the SEC Championship should be a doozy!
Ohio St at 5 in opponent percentage, also has a win over Penn St, albeit, it was very close. So they are probably not sitting in a strong place.
Oklahoma is at 10 in opponent percentage, which is probably why they are at #8 in the Nation, and not higher. They still have Baylor and Oklahoma St. So they still could get into the Top 4.
November 3rd, 2021 at 1:33 AM ^
Oklahoma’s best win by record is currently 5-3 Kansas State, and their best style points win, Texas, blew double digit leads in their next two games.
November 3rd, 2021 at 1:48 PM ^
then they struggled against KU. Oklahoma will probably lose another game before the regular season is over.
November 3rd, 2021 at 7:00 AM ^
Oklahoma has nothing to worry about, because they have 3 remaining games against good teams: Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State — and then a potential Big 12 championship game. They won’t be #8 anymore if they win those games.
Oregon has no games left against ranked teams, so winning out might not be good enough, depending on what the other teams do.
If the SEC Championship Game is Georgia vs. Alabama, there are going to be a lot of Georgia fans. The Committee could take both teams if Alabama wins. If Georgia wins, the two-loss Crimson Tide would probably be out, and that would open up a slot for someone else.
November 3rd, 2021 at 7:32 AM ^
Oklahoma has plenty to worry about. Clearly the committee has little respect for them-and their (weak) conference. They might not be #8 if they win out but their chances of moving to # 4 is very slim-and that is the object here.
The B1G East gets a lot of love here. It will be a most interesting scenario if OSU beats MSU and Michigan beats OSU-and these three otherwise win out. With 2 losses, OSU would seem to be out if this happens. The committee, apparently, likes Michigan. Would they put both Michigan and MSU in???
In the past things have played out to create much more clear choices than the picture has painted at this time.
November 3rd, 2021 at 7:48 AM ^
I will repeat, Oklahoma has nothing to worry about if they win their remaining games. This is very obvious if you look at who they play, and who the others play. But they have to win out.
The committee has been fairly consistent. No undefeated Power 5 champ has ever been left out, and no 2-loss team has ever made it in. Clearly, either scenario is possible mathematically, but it's awfully unlikely.
November 3rd, 2021 at 8:53 AM ^
If Oklahoma wins out I don't think Oregon will be able to stay in with 1 loss, especially with the PAC12 strength of schedule. Alabama with 1 loss, and even Georgia with 1 loss, with the strength of schedule in the SEC, could both still be in. But the SEC is not like the PAC12. Oregon with 1 loss is sitting pretty precariously in the Top 4. So I think too, Oklahoma will be in if they win out.
November 3rd, 2021 at 10:56 AM ^
Oklahoma won’t win out. They aren’t the at good this year. They are like the anti- Nebraska, winning a ridiculous amount of close games. They will lose once for sure before the end of the season
November 3rd, 2021 at 7:16 PM ^
Since they changed QBs there has been dramatic improvement.
November 3rd, 2021 at 9:11 AM ^
It's going to be really tough if OSU wins the B1G especially - would they take either 1-loss MSU or 1-loss UM over undefeated conference champions Cincinnati and Oklahoma, maybe even Wake Forest?
It seems like OSU will own the 3-way tie. The 5th (and likely deciding) tiebreaker is on the records of West division opponents. MSU wouldn't have a chance since they have Northwestern and Purdue, UM would have a chance with Northwestern and Wisconsin, but OSU would probably win the tiebreaker with Purdue and Minnesota. If UM and OSU tie the 5th tiebreaker, UM would win the 6th (best West opponent beat).
November 3rd, 2021 at 7:26 AM ^
It’s actually good to see the committee weight SoS so highly in their calculations, not just nameplates. I can’t help but be suspicious of media influence on them.
November 3rd, 2021 at 7:59 AM ^
Interesting that Notre Dame's highest (on this list) strength of schedule is significantly boosted by playing Cincinnati who has near the lowest SoS.
So, the SoS lesson is play better teams from lesser conferences.
November 3rd, 2021 at 9:53 AM ^
Yep. And they lost that game at home.
November 3rd, 2021 at 8:24 AM ^
Good analysis. Thank you! There seems to be a scenario here for two SEC teams and two B1G teams to get in, even though it is remote. I would love to see that happen and can settle it on the field.
November 3rd, 2021 at 8:38 AM ^
just win baby.... just win
November 3rd, 2021 at 10:11 AM ^
ohio's place is fine for them. they beat msu and Michigan and their numbers look better than anyone else's (minus that loss). If they beat a revamped 8-3 wisky team, or minny/purdue etc.. and now they another quality win.
They are sitting just fine. Lets end the speculation in 4 weeks.
November 3rd, 2021 at 11:16 AM ^
Look at how low Oklahoma sits, and they're in a Power 5 conference. Cincinnati is wrong to think that moving to a Big 12 without Oklahoma and Texas will raise their profile. Once OU and UT leaves, the Power 5 will turn into the Power 4.
November 3rd, 2021 at 1:44 PM ^
Of course the Big 12 will raise Cincinnati's profile. Even without Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 is a much stronger conference than the AAC. And one thing is for sure: Cincinnati will make a lot more money there.
The Big 12 will not be as strong as before. Still, any AAC team would take a Big 12 invite in a heartbeat—as Cincinnati just did. They all wanted in.
There is no legal definition of what constitutes the "Power 5," but those 5 conferences have NCAA autonomy. Nobody is talking about taking that away.
November 3rd, 2021 at 3:57 PM ^
I remember when the Big East, with Miami and VTech, were legit. Then the ACC came calling. Now it's just a basketball conference. I'll be curious to see what happens when these conferences renegotiate TV contracts and the flagship program for their conference (that draws TV interest) is...
November 3rd, 2021 at 11:38 AM ^
Damn you, Scott Frost. Get your act together - for our sake!
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:49 PM ^
From reading some Nebraska fan stuff it's pretty much a done deal with them that Frost will be out at the end of the season.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:32 PM ^
I agree he should be out, but they owe him something like $17M if they fire him.
He'll probably land as co-OC with Alabama, win a title and then get another G5 gig, which is more his speed as a HC anyway.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:32 PM ^
Until he wins a stupid game against Ohio this weekend
November 3rd, 2021 at 2:39 PM ^
Yes, but Alabama's opponents' record includes 7 losses to Alabama! Factor those out, and it's 30-19, for a 61.2% Checkmate.
(Jokes aside, when considering the strength of a team's opponents by record, why do we count the losses to that team? Isn't that a bit circular?)