Advanced stats suggest MSU is #4 luckiest team in college football
I have promised to myself this will be the last I mention or speak of the bitter pill that was the game in East Lansing. What's done is done, and time to support the squad and move forward..
Having said that, I had to take one final glance back to make sure I'm not completely losing my mind. For those that acknowledge luck is a thing that exists, and unfortunately for Michigan they ended up on the wrong side of it on this particular Devil's Night, the advanced stats would tend to agree with you.
Michigan State is considered the 4th luckiest team in all of college football this year. I'm a firm believer in the notion that luck is luck; sometimes it's good, sometimes it's bad, and all of the time it's unpredictable.
This year it's obviously been a friend to Sparty, and the fancy stats acknowledge they haven't earned it all the hard way.
I will leave it at that. The dead horse has been kicked. For those neurotic enough like me, I thought some confirmation by the numbers might offer some clarity that your eyes don't deceive you. Michigan State has been extremely lucky this year.
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/luck-by-other
November 7th, 2021 at 10:12 AM ^
You mean to tell me that they’re not built for the championship rounds ? What a shock..
November 7th, 2021 at 10:13 AM ^
I'm sure a decade from now we'll keep calling it "luck" too. I feel like MSU would prefer it this way.
November 7th, 2021 at 10:25 AM ^
I'm not the statistician calling it "luck". I'm assuming this is the output from some algorithm that doesn't care how lucky Michigan's or Michigan State's or Louisiana Monroe's football team is. The point is, luck is a thing that exists and statistically MSU has been a benefactor from it this year.
November 7th, 2021 at 10:34 AM ^
Luck is a thing that exists? Or is it more like just some unpredictable, random shit that happens?
November 7th, 2021 at 10:44 AM ^
I would say it's both. Things that are unpredictable and random, can at the same time exist.
November 7th, 2021 at 10:52 AM ^
Yeah, in this particular case "luck" seems to shit that the model can't explain. Maybe that's "luck" in the common vernacular, or maybe it means the model is missing something. My guess is it's mostly the former, but that's just a guess really.
ETA: Nebraska is the unluckiest team, which kinda goes with the thought. I mean, yes, they've probably been unlucky, but some of that sure looks like the model assuming Frost is more competent at his job than he is.
November 7th, 2021 at 11:10 AM ^
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
My guess is that Scottie isn’t good at the preparations.
November 7th, 2021 at 2:05 PM ^
Nebraska kicked a punt nearly 40 yards. The angle of the ball landed so that it bounced directly back toward the punter so high no one could stop it. The net gain of that punt was 7 yards.
The beneficiary was MSU and it may have had a direct influence on the final score. MSU couldn't move the ball whatsoever and 30 yards of real estate may have put Nebraska in field goal range.
You could probably punt the ball 1000's times and not get that bounce. No amount of modelling is going to predict that outcome. This kind of validates the point MSU had been lucky while Nebraska has not.
November 7th, 2021 at 10:56 AM ^
I think it refers to certain individual play results that are not replicable or predictable moving forward, like e.g. what % of fumbles are recovered by your team vs your opponent. Teams that have a high % of those cannot maintain that going forward.
November 7th, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
Maybe it also means you win a higher percentage of replays, like 6 in a row against the team you consider to be your chief rival.
November 7th, 2021 at 11:38 AM ^
Why are you sure?
November 7th, 2021 at 10:14 AM ^
Northern Illinois is even luckier than MSU. fYI.
November 7th, 2021 at 11:24 AM ^
#3 on the list is Louisiana Monroe, where RR is OC. As lucky as they've been, they're still only 4-5.
November 7th, 2021 at 12:51 PM ^
Oh, they put Nebraska at the bottom of the list, how unlucky!
November 7th, 2021 at 12:04 PM ^
Rocky Lombardi must have made some pact with some Sicilian oracle.
I think he was in the stands during the Michigan/MSU game.
November 7th, 2021 at 10:15 AM ^
Yeah, turns out it's pretty tough to be a top 5 team when you're 127th in the country in pass defense.
November 7th, 2021 at 10:20 AM ^
Unsurprising that Nebraska is dead last. By a lot of predictive metrics, Nebraska and MSU are about the same team. It's amazing how literally 5 or 6 plays -- be it 'making plays' or dumb (bad) luck - can be the difference between 8-1 and 3-7. For the former, Tucker is going to get a fat ass raise, somewhere. And Frost will probably be fired.
A bit concerning that OSU is 88th, FWIW. Preparing for regression to the mean all in the last weekend I guess...
November 7th, 2021 at 10:28 AM ^
The thing about Nebraska though is that Frost always seems to make some brutal game management decisions that blow up in their face. Yesterday he had a 4th and 4 deep in OSU territory, down 23-17. Even though his kicker is terrible, he called the FG - and it missed.
Also, he keeps trotting out Martinez even though he's a turnover machine.
November 7th, 2021 at 10:36 AM ^
Yeah I didn't like that decision, especially because Nebraska's kicker isn't good. There was definitely bad luck (or something) on the obvious PI no-call on 4th down when Nebraska was driving to take the lead.
November 7th, 2021 at 10:49 AM ^
I've said it before and I'll say it again - Nebraska is the most dangerous team in the B1G. It's the team no top team wants to play. Look at all of their heart breaking, close losses to top 10 teams - OSU, Oklahoma. UM, and MSU. Yesterday was their worst loss and it was only 9 points. Just glad we have them out of the way. They always seem to find a way to throw away close games
November 7th, 2021 at 10:53 AM ^
Eh, I'd say the most dangerous team is one that actually wins. Yeah, they lost to some good teams, but also Illinois, Minnesota and Purdue.
When you play NU you're probably in for a game (their defense is legit) but you know in the end their shoddy offense/special teams are going to mess up. As it happens, those are the units Frost is responsible for.
November 7th, 2021 at 10:55 AM ^
Nebraska is the most dangerous team in the B1G.
??? If you had to win one game, you'd rather play OSU, PSU, MSU or even Purdue instead of Nebraska?
November 7th, 2021 at 11:00 AM ^
Totally agree, and if you think about the game scripts of how their season has gone, think about these three plays: blown punt coverage vs. MSU, Martinez fumble against Michigan, missed fumble recovery against OSU yesterday.
If Nebraska goes 3/3 with best case scenario on those plays instead of 0/3 worst case, you're talking about Nebraska having beaten 3 top 10 teams.
It might be hard for their AD to justify keeping Frost around after this season, but their team is definitely close right now. If it were me, I'd let it ride for another season with Frost and see if he can get them over the hump. They're right there in my opinion.
November 7th, 2021 at 11:54 AM ^
If Nebraska goes 3/3 with best case scenario on those plays instead of 0/3 worst case, you're talking about Nebraska having beaten 3 top 10 teams.
Whoa there When Martinez fumbled against us, it was a tie game and they were at their own 30. They still had a long way to go and weren't showing any urgency; it seemed like Frost was playing for OT.
If MSU hadn't returned that punt, they would have had the ball with a chance to tie. As it was, NU had another possession with a chance to win, but Frost chose to kill the clock and play for OT.
As for OSU, I'm not sure one fumble was the difference.
All three plays could have gone their way, and they still could have lost all three games.
If this were Frost's first year, you could make the "They're so close!" argument, but this is his fourth year, with a veteran team. They're going to lose a lot after this season. Their schedule gets easier next year (no OSU or OU) but Frost hasn't shown an ability to beat any team with a pulse in his four years there.
The only real difference between this NU team and Frost's first three is that their defense, with several seniors, has stepped it up. Next year, without those seniors they may well regress. On offense - supposedly Frost's specialty - they've made no progress at all.
They're going to miss a bowl once again. If they sweep Wisconsin/Iowa, maybe you can sell the fanbase on another year. If they lose one or both, forget it. Maybe have the next coach keep their DC.
November 7th, 2021 at 12:24 PM ^
True that, and the way I described it was probably a little over zealous. It was definitely not a foregone conclusion they would have won any of those games, but I do think they would have put themselves in position to win in each of them had they not turned into catastrophic mistakes or missed opportunities. That in-and-of-itself might be a Scott Frost, sloppiness issue, but you can see what they want to become and they look pretty close. If Nebraska tightens up the turnovers and develop at least a competent special teams unit, they're definitely a bowl worthy team and probably still competing for the B1G West.
November 7th, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^
MSU with the ball against Nebraska was NOT a threat to score as they had NOT gained a first down in the second half. Zero first downs in the second half. No, MSU was not going to score with that last possession. (OK, not impossible but they were behind much of the half and desperate so why would you think that the last of a series of desperate attempts would work?)
November 7th, 2021 at 2:08 PM ^
I’d say the odds of MSU getting a touchdown were pretty slim without the punt return, considering they had no second half first downs. They were dogshit that day, and had no business winning, but for the gift-wrapped TD. I don’t think a single block was made on that play, nor did the punt returner have to make any cuts or break any tackles.
Unless Tucker hypnotized the punter to kick the wrong way, I’d say that’s extreme luck rather than great coaching.
November 7th, 2021 at 6:56 PM ^
Ehhh, based on what we've seen so far I'd say Purdue firing on all cylinders is the most dangerous team in the B1G.
November 7th, 2021 at 11:01 AM ^
If Frost gets fired and/or Franklin goes elsewhere, it's too bad we only got one iteration of a Frost/Franklin late-game "loss from the jaws of victory"-off. Which Frost actually lost! (By winning 30-23 last year)
November 7th, 2021 at 10:35 AM ^
Yep, not surprising.
It is totally mindboggling that they are 1-6 in the conference despite outscoring conference opponents on net. Remarkable.
They're twice as "unlucky" the fourth most unlucky team!
November 7th, 2021 at 10:52 AM ^
Their numbers are really weird because they ran it up against a putrid Northwestern team (56-7). That game threw a huge glitch in the system.
In their seven losses they've scored 16, 22, 20, 29, 23, 23 and 17 points. In today's era it's hard to win with those point totals. Northwestern is the only P5 opponent that they've managed to score 30 against, which shows what a huge outlier that performance was.
November 7th, 2021 at 12:02 PM ^
In retrospect, giving up 29 points to Nebraska in one half was an ominous sign for us.
November 7th, 2021 at 12:44 PM ^
Eh, not really. The transitive property does not apply to college football. For example, LSU only succeeded 20 points to Alabama yesterday, who most consider a heavy favorite to make the CFP. That same LSU defense gave up 49 points to Florida who find themselves in a dog fight to remain bowl eligible.
Point is, what happened in the second half of the Nebraska game a month ago doesn't foreshadow what is going to happen in the Penn State or OSU matchup. Michigan may very well get torched in both of those games, but Nebraska scoring 29 points in the second half isn't a predictor either way.
November 7th, 2021 at 10:20 AM ^
Was curious to see who the least luckiest team was so I scrolled to bottom of the list, Turns out it is Nebraska.
November 7th, 2021 at 10:24 AM ^
What’s the criteria used to come up with the number?
November 7th, 2021 at 10:31 AM ^
It is based on a dice roll.
November 7th, 2021 at 10:45 AM ^
Most likely based on a concept called "Pythagorean wins" which is a formula (based on historical aaverages) that returns your expected wins based on the points you have scored and the points you have allowed. Pretty much as simple as that.
For instance, if after 10 games you have scored 200 points and allowed 200 points, the formula will expect you to be 5-5. If a team is 2-8 at that point, they're considered to be "unlucky" by three games. That's basically Nebraska right now. And conversely, MSU hasn't outscored opponents by nearly as much as to imply they should have a 6-1 conference record.
It has practical predictive meaning going forward because if that team keeps scoring as many points as they allow, one should expect them to go 0.500 going forward (as opposed to the 30% win percent they currently have), and that often turns out to be the case. That's why Nebraska was only a 2 TD underdog against OSU. Bettors know they're better than their record because points scored and points allowed is more predictive of future performance than W/L.
It's more useful in baseball (and to a lesser extent basketball) because of the relative evenness of teams (less need to adjust for SOS) and the high number of games played.
In football, there isn't much time for luck to even out because the season is so short.
November 7th, 2021 at 12:41 PM ^
This makes sense considering in its first 8 wins MSU gave up considerably more yards than gained in 4 and the Youngstown win doesn't count.
November 7th, 2021 at 11:13 AM ^
Turns out they use a Magic 8 Ball.?
November 7th, 2021 at 10:33 AM ^
Makes sense the whole school sold their soul to the devil.
November 7th, 2021 at 10:36 AM ^
One time is luck. Over and over and it isn't, instead is a collective effort to put selves in favorable position. When they are down you can see the urgency. When we are it seems it's the same protocol of doing your individual job.
November 7th, 2021 at 11:06 AM ^
Yeah I’m sure this stat pulls things like net fumbles recovered, punting success, fg success, etc…
At the end of the day they seem to make plays at the most opportune times. And it’s been like this for years. I’m tired of it- but it no longer feels like just “luck”. Idk maybe I’m going crazy.
November 7th, 2021 at 11:16 AM ^
That is a cool thing to say when you don't look at it closely. Who is to say luck doesn't happen more than once. Haven't you heard someone winning lottery twice for millions?
Anyway, to argue your point, MSU had a lucky punt return TD against NEB. Don't tell me they made their own luck on that play.
Against M, I don't want to bring up refs again. M made dumb plays but there were many points left on the table because of stupid calls by refs. MSU did not make refs call those.
Another example is IOWA. Yes, they put their players in the right position to get turnovers. Don't tell me that they were not lucky. OSU and M, two most talented teams in B1G, cannot come up with same number of TOs.
Luck is what it is. It cannot be explained. I am sure we had our share.
November 7th, 2021 at 11:48 AM ^
A friend of mine’s Dad was the son of Tony “the Tuna” Accardo. The Dad won the Illinois State Lotto twice.
https://apnews.com/article/cdf8667feca0483177cf17348abe0e3b
Imagine the odds.
November 7th, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^
Here's the thing about luck...it always runs out.
November 7th, 2021 at 11:01 AM ^
It does seem they always have had that dumb luck on their side and MOST of the time (not always) that is how they beat Michigan. The loss last week was so hard to take because Michigan felt like the better team and it felt like that one got away from them. Walker (maybe Reed) is the only thing carrying that team. If he goes down, they are toast.
November 7th, 2021 at 11:01 AM ^
Interesting numbers. Thanks for sharing.
November 7th, 2021 at 11:11 AM ^
Living out here on the Great Prairie that is Kansas...I find it most humorous that 1-8 Kansas is still the 60th lucky team. Oh dear lord...it took you above average luck to win that one game!!!
November 7th, 2021 at 11:20 AM ^
Michigan is 38th on the list — not as lucky as MSU, but still comfortably in the top half.