Advanced stats suggest MSU is #4 luckiest team in college football
I have promised to myself this will be the last I mention or speak of the bitter pill that was the game in East Lansing. What's done is done, and time to support the squad and move forward..
Having said that, I had to take one final glance back to make sure I'm not completely losing my mind. For those that acknowledge luck is a thing that exists, and unfortunately for Michigan they ended up on the wrong side of it on this particular Devil's Night, the advanced stats would tend to agree with you.
Michigan State is considered the 4th luckiest team in all of college football this year. I'm a firm believer in the notion that luck is luck; sometimes it's good, sometimes it's bad, and all of the time it's unpredictable.
This year it's obviously been a friend to Sparty, and the fancy stats acknowledge they haven't earned it all the hard way.
I will leave it at that. The dead horse has been kicked. For those neurotic enough like me, I thought some confirmation by the numbers might offer some clarity that your eyes don't deceive you. Michigan State has been extremely lucky this year.
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/luck-by-other
November 7th, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
"I don't believe in luck, I believe in odds." - Seth from Boiler Room
Just kidding.
I would agree with this.
the seven straight official reviews in their favor against us carries a probability of 1/128 (simple probability tree analysis).
November 7th, 2021 at 11:58 AM ^
Yeah and who’s #1? Do I even have to ask? Could it possibly be any team other than the one that fumbles to itself in stride or has third stringers that somehow are better than their already All-World first stringers?
November 7th, 2021 at 1:50 PM ^
Oddly enough that team you mention is rated the 88th most lucky team out of 130 this season.
November 7th, 2021 at 12:04 PM ^
Wait for the State fans to move the goal posts now. I’m already hearing, we only had two wins last season, LMAO! Big talk a week ago and I’m even more pissed that we couldn’t get it done. I knew they would crash land back on Earth.
November 7th, 2021 at 8:13 PM ^
What part about your laughing riot isn't true?
Is the first loss of the season after 9 games crash landing back on earth?
November 9th, 2021 at 8:24 AM ^
Well, considering you are somehow 3-1 in games where you have been massively outclassed offensively, it was bound to happen. Crash landing back on Earth by losing to a 2nd string nobody and letting him pass for over 500 yards and Purdue was UNRANKED. After all that big talk from your coach about "body blows", and your fan-base talking mad trash after squeaking that game out against Michigan. Now, State fans are quick to point out that this season is all just a bonus because "we didn't even expect to be good". That was only after you lost to Purdue, I didn't hear anything like that before this game. You don't get to have it both ways, you either have expectations or you don't. Then the first article I see about MSU on Sunday is all the injuries that they are dealing with. I thought Michigan was the only team that ever made excuses?
November 7th, 2021 at 12:17 PM ^
I know it isn't the most rigorous metric ever, but I remember coming across some video called "Most Memorable Plays in College Football" or something like that, and one of the top comments was "Michigan State must be the luckiest team of all time." That was before this year.
November 7th, 2021 at 12:29 PM ^
Thanks for posting. Though I didn't check the methodology, the results feel consistent with the teams I know about.
Including sad Nebraska: though Frost remains annoying, they're 130th out of 130th in luck, which feels about right.
November 7th, 2021 at 12:35 PM ^
3-1 in games in which they were massively outgained.
November 7th, 2021 at 12:38 PM ^
I mean honestly, now that they lost, I feel less pissy.. Let's focus on pann schhhtate. They seem to have recovered from their swoon. I expect a very tough game. Gritty, slow and clunky all around
November 7th, 2021 at 1:00 PM ^
Without looking, I’d guess luck is very closely related to red zone touchdown efficiency.
November 7th, 2021 at 1:05 PM ^
So getting outgained by 200 yards in 4 of your 9 respective games and managing to go 8-1 is a statistical outlier?
Shocking. Mel is coaching high variance football because he has nothing to lose.
Down 16, 4th and 4 - 35 yard slot fade, why the hell not.
The fact that every coin flip play, low probability shot, and officiating went against us in that game is indeed maddening. The fact it was against them, makes it even more frustrating.
Anybody that thought they were actually the 3rd best team in the country and this was sustainable over the entire season, probably thought Iowa could have gone undefeated as well.
November 7th, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^
This is correct. However, I am impressed that Mel's staff keeps the team in a position to win and calls plays that work when executed. Not every team is capable of calling good plays in the clutch. If haven't seem Mel run play action on 3rd or 4th and long.
November 7th, 2021 at 2:07 PM ^
In fact they've been outgained five times (WKU, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue) this season.
November 7th, 2021 at 1:23 PM ^
MSU was out played by Indiana for crying out loud. They were really crushed by Nebraska, getting out gained by nearly 200 yards, and got all the breaks against Michigan. Yet the fan base acted like condescending, arrogant, weasels.
Purdue just revealed exactly whom they are, a moderately good team who's had an incredibly lucky year.
November 7th, 2021 at 1:31 PM ^
Indiana, Nebraska, and Michigan played well enough to beat MSU but MSU took advantage of the "one" (few) mistake(s) made by the other team. MSU coaching kept MSU in the game so that they could take advantage of their luck. I am pretty sure the MSU loses some or all of those games if they were to be played again. It is a lucky win if you don't think they could do it again. I don't think State could win all those games again.
November 7th, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^
Hard to believe anyone else is luckier. Outplayed by IU, Nebraska and gifted 10 points (conservatively) against us. Fuck staee -and I’ll enjoy their next 2-3 losses.
November 7th, 2021 at 1:51 PM ^
A real man creates his own luck.
-Billy Zane, Titanic.
November 7th, 2021 at 2:04 PM ^
Their 2015 season was the single luckiest season in the entire history of football, college or professional. I would have said 2012 ND was the luckiest but that season technically never happened.
November 7th, 2021 at 6:38 PM ^
Oh Dean... Winning at OSU with a backup QB isn't luck.
Perhaps you're talking about trouble with the snap ? A Michigan coaching error enabled two extra unblocked MSU players on the line because Harbaugh put out two gunners despite MSU having no return man. Luck was created by poor coaching. When are you going to admit that ? How about your new metric of winning on yardage but not the scoreboard (used this year). MSU had a similar advantage in yards in 2015 that UM had last weekend.
How about Iowa in the bigten championship game ? The 18 play drive to seal the game doesn't seem too lucky.
Your posts sound extremely jealous of past and present MSU success.
November 7th, 2021 at 2:30 PM ^
I mean when you have the worst pass defense in the conference and are 8-1 it isn't exactly shocking to find out they are near the top of a luck metric. Without significant luck OSU is going to drop 600 passing yards on them.
November 7th, 2021 at 5:24 PM ^
MSU is surrendering 443 yds per game and gaining 446 so basically net 0. Astounding to stand at 8-1 with such mediocre total defense (113th in FBS of 130 teams) but some good luck allowed them to escape v Neb and UM. In comparison, UM is surrendering 298 yds and gaining 452 so net 150.
MSU was out gained by Purdue and UM in similar fashion (~150 yards) but Purdue made a couple more plays than UM - but both games were statistically lopsided losses by MSU.
OSU might pass for 600 yards and it wouldn’t be surprising to see MSU lose by 20+ if their luck goes the opposite direction.
November 7th, 2021 at 6:39 PM ^
More interestingly, we are #38, Penn State is #77, Ohio State is also pretty far down and dead last in the caboose is surprise-surprise, Nebraska.