31-29 Michigan Win Analysis
Taking the body of work of both football teams, and throwing out 5 lowest teams you get the following data:
OSU close games (Oregon, PSU, Neb) they averaged 29 points. The others (Minn, MSU, IU) averaged 52 points.
In the close games OSU averaged 126 yds rushing. In the others, 198.
In the close games OSU was penalized 20 yards more than the other team on average.
OSU averaged 440s yard passing pretty consistently.
The turnover differential was a wash over those games.
Michigan against the same group averaged 31 points a game. (sub Wisc and Wash for Minn and Oregon)
SUMMARY
If we score our average, and keep OSU under 150 yards rushing, win the penalty margin and keep turnovers even we should win this game 31-29.
That said - if like previous years - there are a lot of pass interference calls against us, Hutchinson and Ojabo being held all game with no calls, questionable ball spots, dropped passes and many of our big plays being overturned in the booth - then we probably lose big.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:08 AM ^
Perfect
November 23rd, 2021 at 1:18 PM ^
Lol, exactly. It's like the movie Baseketball when Squeak says something like "I swear if you guys rip on me 13 or 14 more times... I'm outta here!".
After losing 14 of 15 or whatever, the days of convincing myself we have a chance are over. I wake up on Ohio State day like a death row inmate on execution day. I'll happily live on if clemency is granted, but I wake up prepared for doom.
November 23rd, 2021 at 4:40 PM ^
Nothing wrong with that. I’ll be tending to my smoker early morning and will walk in around 5 minutes before kick off with my cooler full of beer that I’ll drink in celebration or pound in misery. Usually by the half I’ve drank like I was 21 but my late 40s body will remind me I’m not and I’ll take a nap to get away from the hell i’m witnessing and living once again. I’ll probably come to with about 2 minutes left and say “oh well, fuck it” never thought we were gonna win anyways. Or scenario two is we actually beat these assholes for once so my 15 yr old son can feel what I felt at his age.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:27 AM ^
The turnover differential was a wash over those games.
That may be, but our already slim chances decline significantly if we lose the turnover battle. Giving up our offensive possessions to one of the most potent offenses in the country is a bad recipe.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:48 AM ^
If OSU ever punts in this game, I don't think I'll be able to watch. Can't believe how many times in the last few years we've seen a massive momentum shift because we screwed up a special teams play.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:52 AM ^
Alternatively, if OSU never punts in this game, I don't think I'll be able to watch.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:11 AM ^
But the potential is there for a Woodson/Howard moment. We can't hope they don't punt to us!!!
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:31 AM ^
I feel like special teams has actually been pretty good/lucky vs Ohio State the last few years
-Fake punt stop in 2016
-Multiple missed Ohio State field goals at key moments in 2016 and 2017
-DPJ punt return inside the 10 in 2017
-Recovered kickoff muff in 2018
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:57 PM ^
With special teams... Why in Gods name did we show the Barret to Henning play against Maryland. That would have been beautiful against OSU.
November 23rd, 2021 at 1:05 PM ^
Most teams don't pooch kick the ball to the 25 like those idiots did.
November 23rd, 2021 at 4:09 PM ^
Henning scares the shit out of me. How we can’t find a scholarship athlete to secure a punt comfortably is nuts.
I know its not easy but I don’t care if they fair catch every one of them.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:49 AM ^
Turnover battle is the only that’s gonna give us a shot to win this game. It’s probably been the reason Cade got the nod to start the season. He doesn’t force ridiculous throws and hangs onto to the ball. We have been fortunate for not allowing to many sacks this season which also helps our QBs hold on to the ball. If we win the turnover game I think we win the game!
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:31 AM ^
Early lead - Refs call holding - M controls Ohio run game - M dominates time of possession - profit.
EZ game
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:35 AM ^
It is a shame that The Game will come down to the Refs.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:43 AM ^
Imagine the disingenuous, self-righteous, hypocritical meltdown by OSU if one of the officials turns out to be a UM homer and tenderly pats Haskins on the derriere during a Michigan victory.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:50 AM ^
Right. I do not believe for a second the Refs "cheat". However, the optics are just plain awful.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
I do not believe for a second the Refs "cheat".
I believe that there are individual refs who clearly display animus toward particular coaches or programs, and will intentionally screw the coach or program if the opportunity presents itself. The phantom holding call on Michigan's fake punt in the '90 Rose Bowl against USC is an example of this. Or, they display an overt love for a particular school or coach and will make highly questionable judgement calls in their favor when the opportunity presents itself.
The 2016 OSU game is an example of the latter, IMO.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:17 AM ^
I'm not sure about conscious animus, or rather, I believe refs might sense that they have an animus against a particular coach/program, and persuade themselves that they can rise above it.
That's part of a larger human issue, that our conscious brain convinces us it's in charge. That is, our thinking convinces us that our thinking is objective, that we're in full control of all our thoughts and decisions.
But being human, we're ALL subject to a combination of conscious thoughts, subconscious urges, AND random factors, like time of day or temperature or hunger. Or home field advantage.
So refs convince themselves they're in control of their decisions, and they are, mostly but not fully. Bias weaves its usual way in.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:13 AM ^
I hope the ref washed his hands.
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:10 PM ^
This may or may not have been taken after the officials gave Green Bay an extra play after poor Aaron was hit too hard. Results = Lions loss...
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:26 AM ^
I do not believe for a second the Refs "cheat"
It does not have to be conscious though. There have been academic studies that show that much of home-field advantage is attributable to ref decisions, particularly less experienced refs who are influenced by not wanting to displease the crowd.
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:07 PM ^
Remember the two non-calls for pass interference against OSU in 2016? The refs were looking at the grabs (tackle in one case, call it holding) and didn't throw the flag. They didn't miss it. They chose to overlook them while calling PI on an uncatchable pass.
Sorry, we are being too kind if we don't call that cheating. Is there premeditated cheating? Maybe not but those guys were biased (evidenced by butt pats and smiles after scores) so much so that calling it cheating by incompetence is being kind.
Mr. Referee - "Do you cheat for OSU?" answer: NO
Mr. Referee - "Why didn't you throw a flag on this play but not this play?" Um . . .
November 23rd, 2021 at 2:28 PM ^
Weren’t two refs in the 2016 barred from working OSU games for conflicts of interest, but magically were allowed to work that one?
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
I believe I am in the top tier of objectivity on this board. But, even I don't believe such an official actually exists...not even in a home game. So...
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:50 AM ^
I just hope that our OL has learned this year that B1G refs just do not call holding, like at all, unless it's BLATANTLY obvious. We should give up zero sacks, simply because if you get beat, just hold and they'll maybe call it 1 outta every 4 times it happens. Same for DPI. If you have to chose between a 40 yard touchdown to Olave or tackling Olave for a DPI, take the penalty. You won't get called for it everytime and now those receivers have to work to get really open (like our receivers always have to do vs them) or else you're grabbing them and staying in their hip pockets all game. 3-4 DPI penalties in this game is a way better scenario than 3-4 40-yard touchdowns where our DB's never touch the dudes.
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:14 PM ^
Exactly my prescription for us having a shot. Got to clog it up like the Patriots did to Manning and the Dantonio MSU did to everyone. Just as their OTs will hold 20 times and hope to get called only once (the Penn State approach), our DBs should clutch, grab, and obstruct 30 times and if we only get called twice, that is a huge win and provides a path to victory.
That plus some fumble luck and some Jaybaugh magic on special teams could get us there.
November 23rd, 2021 at 4:25 PM ^
You guys are reaching new levels when it comes to complaining about the refs. You've now resorted to pre-complaining about calls that have yet to happen.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:33 AM ^
All we have to do is outscore them over the course of 4 quarters and we win The Game.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:35 AM ^
Math checks out, we win, book it!
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^
Do you even Statistics, bro?
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
I didn't want to start my own thread this week, as I knew it would get drowned-out in a sea of "I'M SO MAD AT UM NOT WINNING THE GAME" and comparisons of the game to the Civil War, but here is my statistical take. First, the offensive and defensive stats for both teams to date:
Long story short, if you take these numbers and run a multivariate predictive model across the entire NCAA FBS for games played this year, with offensive (pass vs. rush + 3rd and 4th down efficiency) and defensive (pass vs. rush + interceptions) performance predicting margin of victory, OSU should win this game by about 9.1 points on a neutral field. UM enjoys a 2.9 point home field advantage over the past 15 years, which brings it down to 6.2 points. That's still not good, but shows roughly where the "optimistic" spread (OSU -7.5) is coming from.
Passing yards per game are the strongest predictor of margin of victory across the FBS, which is bad news given OSU's passing prowess. On the other hand, OSU's passing performance has varied widely based on the quality of defense they are facing. The best pass defenses they have played are Minnesota (13th) and they had 294 passing yards, Purdue (22nd) with 361 yards, and PSU (29th) with 305 passing yards. Their two best passing games were against the two worst passing defenses they played: the 130th passing defense (MSU, 449 yards) and the 88th (Oregon, 484 yards). They lost one of those games, of course, and won 117-0 in the other.
Now, with all this fluff on your plate, here are some simple tweaks to expected values on some of the variables that I can do to turn this from a 6.2-point UM loss to a UM win. All of these hypotheticals involve making a change to one statistic (e.g., decreasing OSU's expected passing yards from 362 yards to XX) and holding all else constant. In other words, it says both teams perform at their season averages but one exceeds that performance in just the one category listed:
-If UM gets two INTs (about 1.4 above its season average), UM should win.
-If UM holds OSU to 300 yards passing (and it very well could, given we are the best pass D OSU has faced all year), UM should win.
-If OSU hits their passing yard average of 360 but UM holds them to 130 rushing yards, UM should win.
-If UM lets loose with Cade and we jump from 230 to 350 passing yards, we should win (pretty easily, actually).
-If UM goes just 50 yards above its average in both passing and rushing, we should win (again, pretty easily).
Now, again, these are all hypotheticals and reside on the silly assumption that we/they exactly perform up to expectations in every category while manipulating performance in just one variable. That's unlikely. But it does show that a fairly small shift in one or two areas could change this from an expected loss to a win. Will that happen? Obviously, gun to my head I would say "no." BUT, the gap between the two teams is not as cavernous as it appears. Recent history says we will lose big, but each year is different. If it's a close game in the second half and we are still in it, within a score or two, one big play - a pick of Stroud, a fumble, a big hitter to Edwards for a TD, etc. - and UM could pull it out. ON PAPER, this should be a close game that comes down to the 4th quarter.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:37 AM ^
Good stuff. How do you work in special teams? SP+ has Michigan as the #2 special teams unit in the country! Ohio State is ... let's see ...
...
Well, that kicker did finally miss one against MSU. Maybe it broke the seal. And their punter seems to be ... untested?
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^
Honestly, when I first started doing this (I really do it for a weekly betting pool I am in each year), I did add in things like ST and SOS. I quit doing so after a while though, as I found that neither were particularly strong predictors of team margin of victory. Neither are things like first downs per game (oddly) or time of possession. I thus go with a parsimonious model rather than one that maximizes explained variance (adjusted R2), and have gotten the best results (in terms of predicting game outcomes ATS). But you are 100% correct - a big event or two in ST, like a blocked punt, etc. - could swing things a lot too.
November 23rd, 2021 at 1:13 PM ^
I was with you until you said that if OSU gets 490 yards on us Michigan "should win." I'm not sure what world you are living in where we not only put up over 490 yards on OSU but also are more efficient in the red zone and luckier with the refs/bounces/4th down plays. OSU has a bunch of 5 stars and high 4 stars on their defense. It is much improved from from earlier in the year. If we "hold" OSU to 490 yards my guess is we get blown out.
November 23rd, 2021 at 2:17 PM ^
I know that seems crazy, but that would be holding them to about 70 total yards below their season average. And given that the model (and the spread) says they should win by about a touchdown, and 70 yards are about a touchdown, there you go. Plus, look at their closest games this year:
-45-31 over Minnesota (OSU: 495 yards of offense)
-33-24 over PSU (OSU: 466 yards of offense)
-26-17 over Nebraska (OSU: 495 yards of offense)
-35-28 LOSS to Oregon (OSU: 612 yards of offense)
I am NOT saying we 100% beat them if we hold them to 490 yards. That's not how these things work. But the model basically says that in that scenario, with all else being equal, Michigan should have a slight margin of victory.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:39 AM ^
I like your style man
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:06 PM ^
Great stuff. You should have started a thread. Much better than many other crappy threads I see.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:42 AM ^
so what you are saying that i should bet my mortgage on a Michigan win, and the only reason we could lose is if
- questionable PI calls
- Hutch and Ojabo being held
- questionable ball spots
- dropped passes
- Our many big plays being overturned by the booth
so...already with the excuses?
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:47 AM ^
If most of these things happen in the game, are they excuses? Are you saying that if Michigan loses, it’s because Michigan lost the game regardless if things go OSU’s way?
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:09 PM ^
Excuses? So you are saying it is ok for thee to happen? If someone points out, it is an excuse? Calling a fair game should be a given and should not be called an excuse.
November 23rd, 2021 at 7:46 PM ^
But games are called unfairly a bunch of times, so you can't disregard the idea that it can't happen. I believe what is being said is, if these things do/do not happen, they have already seen this movie and, therefore, is totally the reason Michigan loses. I mean, 2016 game is the perfect example. It's quite possible and there is no reason to assume that a fair game will be called as it is not guaranteed.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:44 AM ^
I don’t understand the idea that Mich should win the game.
Ohio State is the better team.
They’ve pounded Mich in recent history, regardless of location. If not seen a game in the Harbaugh era where the refs have been on his side. The run game/old school football offense has not worked against OSU. Receiving corp is weaker than previous years. Mich has to force turnovers or create enough pressure that it forces bad passes that Stroud usually completes.
Hopeful for a win, but we lost to Michigan State. Not sure why that gives confidence in this team beating a superior team.
November 23rd, 2021 at 11:41 AM ^
Thanks Ronnie Raincloud
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:12 PM ^
OSU lost to Oregon which lost to UTAH. OSU had quite a bit of games to improve but Michigan only had two since MSU game. So the improvement will be minimal compared to OSU. Nonetheless, there will be improvement. There is a chance for M to win. Not a big one but a decent one. If you want to see that there is no chance that is your prerogative.
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:16 PM ^
Recent history? We won the last game by margin that far exceeded the spread. Oh, wait, so did OSU but hopefully you get my point.
The last game was lost once it was known that there would be no snow to confound Fields. Maybe it was lost before that. The previous loss was on errors and coaching which I believe have been addressed.
So, no, previous poundings do not apply. MSU has the worst passing defense in the NCAA. Please don't pretend that their loss is relevant other than suggest that OSU has a potent passing attack.
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:50 AM ^
[Harbaugh Drop #B-192]. Trust the Plan, people. Everything Wolverine is falling into place. The Great Awakening is just getting started. Some of you rubes still believe the MSM that the Ohio State Buckeyes have beaten Michigan in football for eight straight years. Do you sheeple really think our messiah Jim Harbaugh would let the Deep Ohio State simply march all over us in broad daylight for eight years in a row?! Eight straight losses is just what the secret microchips want you to believe. But Harbaugh is playing four-dimensional football while y’all are playing one-dimensional checkers. Soon it will all be revealed. In fact, we didn’t lose any of those games. Don’t listen to the lying MSM. We won those games by huge, landslide margins. And we won by a landslide despite the fact that the Buckeyes were using dirty tricks. As I mentioned in an earlier post that got removed by Mark Zuckerberg, first, those eight games included points that the Buckeyes unjustly scored and which should not have been counted in the final total. Second, the scoreboard was manufactured in China by a Chinese manufacturer, and that is suggestive of incorrect point totalidge that should have been tossed out rather than verified. Third, secret, late-arriving points resulted in increased Wolverine points which is not reflected in MSM “official box scores.” Fourth, the head referee did not properly certify the point total, which means the final score decision should be sent to the NCAA Rules Committee, which Harbaugh has cleverly stacked with Wolverine fans for precisely this purpose. 4D football, my friends. In fact, I just heard from a source with connections to a High Up Military Commander that the Rules Committee has *already* secretly (1) ruled that Michigan won all eight of those games, (2) transferred Urban Meijer’s to Guantanamo (the TV Urban is just a body double), and (3) the Committee is waiting for the right moment to reveal this to the world on the Emergency Broadcast System#. Once it is revealed, no doubt there will be consternation among the Buckeye fans and at truck stops throughout Ohio. But worry not my fellow patriots, the military is on our side to quell any Buckeye uprising. Please share before Zuckerberg/Soros removes this from www.Facebook.com. Where Harbaugh Goes One, We Go All. #WHG1WGA
tl;dr JT was short
November 23rd, 2021 at 10:58 AM ^
is your code name M?
And Woody Hayes Jr. is going to take his rightful seat at the throne, right?
(or is it Bo Schembechler Jr???)
November 23rd, 2021 at 6:06 PM ^
+1 for "totalidge".