This Week’s Obsession: Unlocking a Beilein Offense?
Be the dream live the dream be the dream be the drea ive dre be the am towel. [Marc-Grégor Campredon]
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Is there a way to unlock a Beilein-level offense this year?
BiSB: Play Iowa?
Seth: Make threes...wait for it...in BOTH halves.
Ace: It’d be good to start this discussion by mentioning the main issues holding this offense back. Shooting—both three-point and free-throw—is certainly a problem, but I think the bigger one is the lack of a player other than Wagner who can regularly create off the dribble.
Charles Matthews tries but his ballhandling is not good. He’s got a 90 OTG and 23% TO rate against top-50 teams.
BiSB: And Wagner creating off the dribble, while fun and Nick-Ward-ankle-melting, isn't terribly efficient.
Ace: With that said, I’d like to present this.
(body-bag opponents removed)
Poole is the only other wing who’s shown a willingness and ability to attack the basket, and his shooting ability gives him more openings because teams have to close out on him hard. His handle is significantly better than Matthews’s — Poole’s TO rate against top-50 teams is 10%, and while that’d probably rise with a bigger role, it’s a great place to start.
BiSB: Ace, do you have an opinion on Jordan Poole you'd like to share with the class?
Ace: I’m a fan.
BiSB: But seriously, Poole is shooting 37% from three in conference play, and that is with a shot selection that is... robust. Is "robust" the right word?
Ace: Brian mentioned the direction basketball is rapidly headed in basketbullets and Poole is the guy who best fits that — a guy who can create his own shot from anywhere.
Brian: It's not really a word. It's more like a feeling.
AHHHHH
Seth: And that's why 10,000 angry paleontologists just descended on the comments.
Brian: I'd go with "exuberant," if forced to boil Poole down into the ham-fisted thing we call language. But srs his internal monologue is yellin' aussie cowboy if anyone's is.
Seth: Ebullient.
Brian: Reserved for Winovich.
Seth:
Submitted: Jordan Poole is a liquid.
BiSB: Non-Newtonian.
[After THE JUMP: We have solutions like…um…no we don’t actually.]
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Alex: While I'd like to see Poole as well, we're not seeing the same action with him compared to Matthews. Beilein sends Matthews around curl screens frequently at the start of games (inclusing Wisconsin, which led to a foul), and he's given the opportunity to create in a spread ball-screen situation far more than Poole is. While Poole has a better handle and more off-the-dribble ability in terms of finding his shot, he's not a focal-point-of-the-offense type player yet. Without a guard who can be that guy, Beilein's been in more of the old Manny Harris playbook for Matthews, which exposes his flaws.
BiSB: He does have a certain "puppy who is just so excited to see everyone" quality to his game, complete with the bounding.
Ace: Alex, I’d like to see Beilein drag the offense out of that and more in the direction of Wagner high screens with Simpson or MAAR or Poole. Especially with Matthews being so bad at the line, I just don’t think there’s much of a ceiling with an offense based around him being The Guy. Poole’s got handles and some impressive passing and court vision that he’s only been able to flash so far.
Brian: Like Ace I think it goes back to shot creation, and that Michigan doesn't have much of it, and I don't think there's a quick fix for that. I was looking at Hoop-Math again and by God that late clock thing continues to loom. The gap is even bigger now, 53 to 44 eFG
Ace: Replacing Walton with Simpson will do that.
Brian: That is kind of good news because a month ago it was 50/42.
Ace: This is why I’m stanning so hard for Poole. It may not work, but he’s the guy who can change the shot creation dynamic. Also god he’s fun to watch.
Brian: Yes, but he is a bit of a... work in progress on defense.
BiSB: How much of it is just shots not falling? The Nebraska/Rutgers/Northwestern/Minnesota/Northwestern stretch (excluding the bonkers second Purdue game), Michigan went 32/122 (26%) from deep.
Ace: Poole makes some glaring mistakes but on a play-by-play basis he’s not bad. He gets a lot of steals, a surprising number of blocks, and grades out slightly better than Matthews as an on-ball defender per Synergy.
Alex: The problem is that at this point of the season, things are pretty much set in terms of role. It's not practical or really even plausible to double Poole's minutes and ask him to do way more than what he'd been doing - which is shooting, transition, residual action, and the occasional ball-screen. The 1-5 two-man game is a decent option, but Simpson isn't a high usage guy and that could lead to some problems.
BiSB: That is collectively worse than any single game from VCU through the start of that stretch
Ace: Given how the backup point guards are playing, I’d say there are minutes to be had. Also, in case it hasn’t been made clear, I’d be okay with Poole eating into a few of Matthews’s minutes.
[Campredon]
Brian: I don't think Michigan's 3-point shot quality is as good as it usually is. Too many of those shots are an extra foot behind the line or jacks from players who aren't specialists in off the dribble threes. Poole might help a little there but he's still the kind of guy who takes over 60% of his shots from behind the arc.
Alex: I'm not sure More Poole, Less Matthews really fixes anything though. I don't have the data, but how many ball-screens per game has Poole had so far? Maybe one or two? Upping that to ten or twelve isn't likely to work.
Brian: To get shots you have to collapse and kick, and that's not really happening. Poole's assist rate is in the Duncan Robinson range.
 |
| Michigan’s corner turn this year was Z turning into a dog. [JD Scott] |
Ace: I’m not saying run the offense through Poole. Simpson is good at collapse-and-kick.
Alex: I get that Matthews has been frustrating and has apparently hit a wall, but he's a creator. Not sure Poole is that - more of a gunner.
Ace: And Poole has been an absolute killer as a spot-up shooter. With the added benefit of not being Duncan Robinson on defense.
Brian: Do we have data on spot up threes from Synergy vs last year? I feel the problem is that Michigan is forced into a bunch of unassisted 3s and they don't have any unassisted 3 shooters except maybe Poole, a bench guy.
Ace: Yeah, one sec.
BiSB: Matthews is a creator, but his assist-to-turnover ratio is basically 1:1
(Don't look at Poole's numbers plz)
Alex: It kinda fell to him by default.
Ace: Not a big gap on spot-up shots. 95th percentile last year, 92nd this year.
Brian: It's worse against top 100 teams.
Ace: Main difference has been the huge drop-off in scoring by the P&R ballhandler.
And they fell off a cliff on isos.
Seth: That's Charles Matthews. He's now at 93.4 ORtg in Big Ten play via Torvik.
Ace: This is what I’m saying.
BiSB: Meanwhile, Rahk is at 119.5, with a turnover rate under 5% in conference play
And he can make those shots where everyone stands still and you get a free chance to make it but it's only worth one point
Ace: Yeah, the other option here is he really turns up the usage. He’s a weird option this year, though. Not shooting very well but his turnover rate is so tiny that he’s super efficient anyway.
Brian: But for whatever reason his usage stays stuck: 16, 16, 16, 17 over the course of his career.
Ace: He’s a little too chill.
BiSB: /Rahk meme dot jpg
Seth: Why yes I'll take credit for screencapping that.
Cool. pic.twitter.com/yGPt9QsLAx
— Seth M. Fisher (@Misopogon) January 16, 2018
Brian: It's really bizarre. I don't know if I've ever seen a guy show up with a 93 ORTG and then get to 112, 115, and 119 without deciding "hey, I should take more shots."
Ace: Some guys are natural role players and some guys are natural go-to guys. Guess who I think is which.
Alex: Anyways, since I couldn't get in on this at the beginning, my Eat Arby's take is that this isn't a team that can turn it up on offense unless they're in NBA Jam Fire Mode from three. Simpson and Matthews - the one and the three, basically the two players who are tasked to create the most - are better at defense than offense. Another starter, Livers, is a "play defense, rebound, and only take extremely high value shots" guy. MAAR is MAAR - and his ability to hit those tough layups against good defense is key when Michigan's struggling to get anything going. He's not a high-usage guy though and never has been. Teske is all defense and screens. Wagner and Poole are really the only sparkplugs. Michigan needs to get Moe the ball in better spots, especially when he has a mismatch. Poole is a microwave - providing the scoring that Duncan hasn't been able to for most of this season - but scaling up his responsibilities is surely going to put a large dent in his efficiency.
tl;dr The roster is what it is, and the players are better at defense than offense, which is why it's Beilein's best defensive team and a mediocre-by-his-standards offensive team.
BiSB: His two point percentage has ticked up recently. If that continues, he and Poole can combine to do a lot of the stuff they need Matthews to do
Brian: Co-sign. It is what it is.
Seth: What if Livers returns?
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| A Livers breakout is more of a next-year thing. [Campredon] |
Ace: This has all been assuming he’s back. He’s on track for tomorrow it seems. If Livers is out we’re f’d.
Alex: Livers is all open corner and wing threes and dunks.
Brian: Livers has 14 percent usage in Big Ten play. That's not going to fix what ails the offense.
Ace: Yeah, I more meant as a team.
Brian: I expect a couple of guys to take big offseason leaps but those are... offseason leaps.
Alex: Yeah Iowa is a team you need Livers against. His breakout game came against them, but the Hawkeyes are just a motley collection of Large Basketball Men - and there are a lot of them.
Brian: Team turned this year's corner when Simpson went from a nonentity to an okay offensive player, and now they are what they are.
BiSB: Have we ruled out forcing some sort of travel difficulties right before the Big Ten Tournament?
Ace: Have we mentioned the Matthews free throw disparity on the site yet?
BiSB: Like, get the bus stuck in Manhattan traffic on the way to the Garden for like 7 hours?
Seth: Humiliated Ohio State makes off with Michigan's uniforms, team is forced to play the postseason in practice jerseys.
Ace: I guess we haven’t. Matthews is 21/50 on free throws at home, 16/22 in away games, and 17/28 at neutral sites. This may actually really help come tourney time?
BiSB: Are we sure that's not a "sample sizes do weird things, man" thing?
Alex: No.
Ace: That’s a big gap and free throws are mostly a mental thing.
Seth: We have mentioned this but I'll bring up my proposed solution again: When Charles Matthews is shooting a free throw, turn around and introduce yourself to someone in your section please. It is the most Beilein solution to a thing ever.
Ace: Just do what an away crowd does. It clearly works.
Alex: Z is the much bigger free throw issue, factoring in late game situations.
Ace: Indeed. They need the Poole/MAAR backcourt to be viable late in games.
BiSB: Or Michigan needs to get to the double bonus earlier in the game, so opponents can't initiate a Z one-and-one with like 3 minutes left
Ace: Beilein’s offense isn’t particularly conducive to that.
Alex: Teams should hack Z more. Much more. First half, late game, doesn't matter. Free throws are mental and it's pretty disrespectful to intentionally foul guys - it's telling them "we know you're a shitty free throw shooter."
 |
| Not having to fear Matthews at the free throw line has allowed defenders to get super aggressive against his ISO attempts. [JD Scott] |
Seth: Hacking Z is disrespectful to the game of basketball.
Alex: Michigan's inability to get to the free throw line keeping them out of the bonus may be inadvertently helpful in that regard.
Ace: Except then the one-and-ones become empty possessions.
BiSB: Nah, a team can get you to the one-and-one whenever they want.
And... yeah, the thing Ace said
Seth: I find it terrifying going into the last few minutes at like five fouls. It's like giving the other team four possession arrows.
Ace: So they need to draw more fouls but the guy who does that best is a bad free throw shooter and dribbler.
Alex: In any case, I feel like the bad free throw shooting is relatively minor. The team's true shooting % wouldn't be helped THAT much if Z and Matthews were average - Michigan's a characteristically free throw averse team and setting different sliders on the percentage won't fundamentally change anything. Sure, it would be nice, and they would be better. But compared to a "put your head down and barrel into traffic hoping for a whistle" team...
Our best hope is that Matthews stops turning it over and Moe gets the ball more.
Ace: #FreePoole
Alex: Maybe Matthews's offensive fouls are paradoxically good. Also if Duncan could start hitting close to 50% of his threes again, that would be great. Duncan in 2016: 45%. Duncan in 2017: 42%. Duncan now: 36%. And it's not like he's taking more of them or worse shots.
Ace: His eFG% against top 50 teams this year is 39.5.
Alex: The Athletic article by Quinn about him not believing in slumps was extremely good. But, uh, he's in a slump. A long one.
Seth: Dunc may have shot his way out of it last game.
Ace: I wouldn’t mind seeing more of Matthews at the four and, uh, guess who in the lineup.
Brian: AHA
Alex: Brent Hibbits.
Ace: Close.
Alex: You just can't stop a dude from Hudsonville. They're known for getting buckets. Just looked it up: Poole's assist rate is lower than Duncan's against Top 100 teams.
Ace: Look man maybe I’d just rather see Michigan go down in the second round in a blaze of glory than a parade of bricked free throws.
Alex: The masonry at the charity stripe is all but a guarantee. I do want more Poole after the last TV timeout!
Brian: But I think we're all expecting a second round exit.
Ace: Yeah.
Alex: Or a first round exit.
February 14th, 2018 at 9:34 AM ^
Solution: Scream at Matthews while he is taking free throws. Confuse the guy and make him think he's on the road.
...you're welcome.
February 14th, 2018 at 3:13 PM ^
I’d just rather see Michigan go down in the second round in a blaze of glory than a parade of bricked free throws
Ace sums up my feelings EXACTLY!
Fling the ball down court at Bo Kimble-LMU pace, stay off the damn charity stripe
Also, f they can rout msu at breslin, they can win 2 or 3 games on neutral courts. I'd honestly rather NOT go all the way to the B1G final this year since we don't need to.
WOULD LOVE to get a W vs Purdue though!!!
February 14th, 2018 at 5:49 PM ^
Well, this year with the Big Ten Tournament in MSG a week early (so silly - thanks, Delany), there will be an additional week off prior to the Dance. The more games we play & win to improve our seed line - the better.
February 14th, 2018 at 5:57 PM ^
because 1) it's fun to win at games that are meant to be won, 2) watching more M basketball is good if you like watching M basketball in the first place 3) all games will be digested fully by the committee since they'll be done in plenty of time and 4) plenty of time to rest up before the NCAA's like you said
February 14th, 2018 at 9:44 AM ^
well, pools are filled with water, and water is a liquid, so he's not wrong.
February 14th, 2018 at 10:04 AM ^
That video will haunt me forever.
February 14th, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^
What in the name of Zeus' ass was that video?!
February 14th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
In fact...
February 14th, 2018 at 10:06 AM ^
The solution to Matthew's FT problem is simple, he needs to bend his knees. When he does, he makes it. When he's stiff legged, he misses.
I guess correctly whether it's gonna be a make or miss about 90% of the time before he releases the ball.
February 14th, 2018 at 3:07 PM ^
OK, it's all well & good to tell this board that - but have you emailed Coach B about it yet?!
Or try tweeting him @JohnBeilein
February 14th, 2018 at 5:36 PM ^
I see the same problem with Simpson at the line. He needs to deliberately bend his knees a couple time before he shoots and the extra push he will get on the ball will keep him from bricking on the front of the rim on the first free throw and then overcompensating on the next by shooting harder with his arms. I am 68 years old and still play ball and shoot 80% from the line in my over 35 league. Both these guys need to deliberately bend their knees a couple times before they shoot. They couldn't do worse.
February 14th, 2018 at 5:36 PM ^
I see the same problem with Simpson at the line. He needs to deliberately bend his knees a couple time before he shoots and the extra push he will get on the ball will keep him from bricking on the front of the rim on the first free throw and then overcompensating on the next by shooting harder with his arms. I am 68 years old and still play ball and shoot 80% from the line in my over 35 league. Both these guys need to deliberately bend their knees a couple times before they shoot. They couldn't do worse.
February 14th, 2018 at 10:59 AM ^
It really does feel like this teams ceilling is a 2nd weekend team, and it's a HARD ceiling made of like...titanium and shit. Next year though...
February 14th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
which is one of the best results any team has achieved all season.
We can absolutely win a round of 32 game. I would argue that this team has a very high single-game ceiling. We play good defense and that's mostly a constant. Which means, all we have to do is get hot (which we've done against multiple elite teams this year) and we can beat any team. I certainly don't think needing to "get hot" every game is a strategy for making a deep run, but we can get hot against a 1-3 seed in the second round. Two in a row to advance to the elite eight would be highly unlikely.
February 14th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^
At Home.
Yes, purdue game.
And that was the last good home game M played.
Put It on Iowa today boys, Shoot the lights out.
Go Blue.
February 14th, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^
I the only one who actually thinks that Robinson has really come along as a defender? Maybe I am, I don't know. I get that he is an easy take for a good wing off the dribble, he literally cannot help that. But I have noted him being pesky and disruptive with his hands on entry passes and suprising alert on help side defense and active on the defensive glass.
I hate to reference Tom Crean except for commenting on one of the many available gifs, but during the Iowa game, I heard him say that Robinson, despite his athletic limitations, is actually a crafty defender and one that you have to be aware of off the ball. I didn't think much of it at the time except for that Crean is an idiot but since he said that I have noticed what he was saying more and more.
February 14th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^
I won't say that Crean isn't an idiot, but I will say that he's been surprisingly good as a color analyst. He translates his knowledge of the game into TV talk very well. I'm a fan, and wish he'd do more of the games I watch.
February 14th, 2018 at 1:22 PM ^
I was never a fan of Crean as a coach but I've found him very easy to listen to as a color guy and have been impressed with his cogent, intelligent analysis. Obviously I think he will get another coaching gig but I think he has found a solid backup plan if he decides to hang up the whistle for a while.
February 14th, 2018 at 4:59 PM ^
a player. He's not wearing his critical coaches hat when doing those games.
But he is correct that Robinson is "crafty" in the sense that he'll occasionally make a nice read on what the offense is doing and anticipate a pass or come help at an opportune time. And he's usually in the right spots. His main issue on defense is that even though he's in the right spot, he gets burned by quicker players and overpowered by bigger players, and this gets exploited so frequently that our defensive numbers are far worse when he's on the floor than when he's not.
As for his defensive rebounding: not really but sort of? He had zero defensive rebounds in 37 min against Wisconsin, although he should be given a lot of credit for keeping Iverson off the glass (he had zero OREBs). If he's boxing out a guy like Iverson such that he takes them both out of the play, that is a win, and allows Wagner or our guards to collect the board.
He still has the lowest DREB rate on the team out of guys that play 20% of minutes or more. At the 4 spot! Lower than Z, lower than MAAR, lower than Poole. We have excellent d rebounding overall but when the opponent gets one, it is often his guy getting around him or over him.
February 14th, 2018 at 4:54 PM ^
Beilein has substituted Robinson IN for defense over Livers in some critical situations because Robinson knows where to be and what the other team is doing, where Livers tends to get lost or allows himself to get caught up in screens.
Obviously there are some matchups that Robinson will never be able to handle. But on the right player, Robinson is definitely a competent defender this year.
February 14th, 2018 at 11:25 AM ^
Oh my. The apparent key/strategy to this offense seems pretty simple-shoot a lot of 3s and make nearly half of them. There are (many) options for raising the ceiling. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
February 14th, 2018 at 11:43 AM ^
February 14th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
Z and Matthews should really consider this
February 14th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^
since I saw him in a high school all star game and then watched his high school tape. His nickname was "Baby Steph" for a reason. His 3 point rage is exceptional and he can create off the dribble and get to the rim. He's still learning shot selection and needs some seasoning. And he just doesn't usually get the minutes yet to find his rhythm and be a big contributor. I like him in the backcourt late in a game with Rahk since he's not a liability at the FT line. I'd like him to get a few more minutes this year but I see next year as being his breakout year if he's the starting SG with Rahk graduating. He may have the highest ceiling on the team.
I also love Livers. He's going to be big time as well.
I love Z's ballhandling, passing and D. If he can get to 60-70% from the FT line and more reliably hit an open jumper, he can make a leap. I'm hopeful another year will see some progress.
February 14th, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^
are so horrible from the FT line. When I shot free throws (admittedly not in a packed arena and not after banging against huge dudes), I had a routine that I would follow every single time to create consistency - a spin of the ball and three bounces of the ball. If you do the exact same thing every single time, it becomes automatic and takes the mental part mostly out of it. Doing that and shooting a ton of free throws in practice, maybe with somebody trying to distract you, should get you to at least 60-70%, usually a lot better.
February 14th, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^
problem is that Simpson's problems are probably more mechanical than mental. There is so much wrong that I am not sure the coaches know where to start. I don't know how he would respond to "take everything you are doing with your shot, and do literally the exact opposite of that."
February 14th, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^
It's both. When you overthink it, in can throw off your mechanics.
A year ago Simpson shot 22-31 (71%) from the line. Even this year, it seems like his percentage is better earlier in the game than in crunch time (though I haven't seen a specific breakdwon). He doesn't have a problem making big shots from the floor (consider his OT performance vs. Minnesota) but something about going to line, especially late in a game, seems to be affecting him mentally. In his two late attempts Sunday, he was short on the first and long on the second.
February 14th, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^
But the problem is that free throw shooting is a huge mental game. And all it takes is a few missed free throws on one bad night to completely ruin your confidence. If you let that bad night carry into the next game, you're done. You're up at the line and you're already convinced, before you shoot the ball, that it's not going in.
Sometimes it just doesn't matter what your routine is. I'm a little perplexed as well because these are D1 athletes, and you'd think they should be able to shoot better from the charity line. But with some of these guys, I'm betting it's a matter of some of them letting one bad night become two. And then two bad nights became a routine. And by then, you're already convinced the ball is not going in the hoop.
February 14th, 2018 at 1:08 PM ^
Doing that and shooting a ton of free throws in practice, maybe with somebody trying to distract you, should get you to at least 60-70%, usually a lot better.
Beilein said recently that Simpson had made 74-100 in a recent practice. He was 71% last year.
Fans who brag about how well they shoot free throws in their driveway are missing the point. This isn't an issue of Simpson being physically unable to shoot them. It's an issue of him making them this year in game situations. It looks like the basketball version of Steve Sax syndrome.
February 14th, 2018 at 1:10 PM ^
has transpired has gone from mental to physical. It may have started as a mental block of some kind resulting from the MSU game, but it is having an effect on his shooting motion now. Those two against Wisconsin had no chance to go in.
February 14th, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^
because the announcers were talking about how the coaches were trying to make some tweaks to Z's shot and get him to shoot from higher up instead of in front of his face.
Trying to tweak a guy's shot in-season is a very bad idea.
1) shooting mostly just requires building muscle memory and getting a bunch of reps. Some guys with wonky form are excellent shooters. Because they've shot a ton of shots with that form and it works for them. So changing form in-season doesn't allow you to get enough reps with that new form.
2) trying to change form forces you to think about the new form and puts you in your head even more. The muscle memory from reps allows you to execute your shot automatically without thinking about it. It's really hard to deal with the pre-existing mental issues and also think about this new form your coaches are telling you to try.
I wouldn't be surprised after that Wisconsin game if the coaches said, you know what, just do what you're most comfortable with, and relax (very hard to do now that he's been pulled because now his confidence is shot even more and he's thinking, i gotta make this or I'm gonna sit, which is exactly why Beilein stuck with him so long. Wanted to keep confidence in him through the slump).
I don't have high hopes for him to turn around his FT shooting this year.
February 14th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
Put me down in the more MAAR camp. Good things happen when he has the ball. A significant bump in possessions with him initiating the offense seems like the best answer.
The most encouraging takeaway from the Wisconsin game was seeing more of this down the stretch. I think this will continue.
February 14th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
the ball should be mostly in Rahk's hands late in the game. Good from the FT line, can get to the rim or hit the open man or an open jumper. He's not perfect but he can create and gives us the best chance late in the game. I still can't believe he was so low rated as a recruit.
February 14th, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
"ebullient" isn't the word I'd use. Something along the lines of "lunatic" or "psychotic" or "paste-eatingly stupid" seems more accurate.
February 14th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^
I'm with Ace. Poole is really the only pathway I see for the offense taking it to another level that's not just based on a night of hot shooting. I have hope for Matthews next year, but he needs an offseason to work on his handles and shot. Poole may get a bit lost at times, but at some point, hopefully this season, it's going to start clicking, and when it does he's going to be dynamic.
February 14th, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^
We need Livers against Iowa? I'd certainly like him back, but I'd hope we could win a home game against a 3-11 team without him...
February 14th, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^
we need him at or near full-strength for OSU. I would hope we could get by without him tonight if it helped him be 100% for Sunday. But if he's good to go now, even better.
February 14th, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^
It is surprising how much Livers already he means to this current team. He will be fun to watch blossom in the coming years. Also, I am with the consensus, Poole is a fun player to watch! That one move where he looks behind him and then quickly turns to the hoop could be straight out of a Harlem Globetrotter's game; ofen making his defender look like a member of the Washington Generals. I would think that would be in the scouting report by now, but it continues to work.
February 14th, 2018 at 1:23 PM ^
This post elicited a lot of thoughts from me. I will try (and probably fail) to provide a concise summary:
- Funny how we dominated MSU and played great against Purdue twice but now we're in "second round is about it" mode. The roller coaster of basketball. I still think that Beilein in a tournament setting against unfamiliar teams (and refs) gives us an edge.
- I agree that "this is who we are" is probably valid mostly with the exception of MORE POOLE.....except for one point. Why are we settling for Matthews being who he is? We've seen him, even against decent teams, be efficient and effective and now we want to bench him for Poole? I think Matthews is in a slump around the rim with finishing and we need to find him some of those easy GR3 points rather than ask him to work so hard fighting into the lane for his points.
- I love Poole and can't wait to see him start next year. But in the last game I saw he nearly blew the game by himself because he got the ball stolen right out of his hands and then fouled a three point shooter a foot behind the line. Let's not pretend he's perfect just yet.
- I know that post touches are slow and inefficient and that Wagner, for all his gifts, isn't great on the low block consistently. But holy jalapenos does it infuriate me when he has a 6-foot guard on him that no one passes him the ball. Why is our "we got a mismatch" offense turn into Z or Rahk jacking an unassisted three against the big guy instead of Wagner dunking on the little guy????
- Free throws are indeed a problem that will hurt us....but I don't think they are a huge component of the issue. If Matthews and Z were both shooting around 70% from the line we'd get maybe 2-4 more points per game. Helpful....not amazing.
February 14th, 2018 at 2:47 PM ^
February 14th, 2018 at 10:24 PM ^
we can absolutely win a game or two against an elite opponent (of which there aren't many, if any) if we even shoot decently well because we play good defense and rebound.
The "this is who we are" argument has to be taken a couple of different ways.
1) the team we were with Livers playing a majority of minutes from the Texas game until he got hurt was a very good team - 14th in Torviks rankings in fact. His Ortg is 122 in conference games and 125 (!) against "quality opponents".
Duncan is 109 and 98 (woooof) in those categories, respectively. That's a huuge difference. I don't think Duncan is that bad at offense (although he is relatively easily shut down by good, athletic teams that a well-coached, i.e. every team we play after tonight).
So we'll see a marked improvement if Duncan bounces back or even if he doesn't, Livers coming back will be a big boost. So if we're the team we were with Livers playing a lot, we'll be fine.
Also, Z has to bounce back from 1-for-his-last-15, right?
The Matthews "slump", I fear, is more that he's now been scouted and teams know his weaknesses and that he turns it over too much and isn't a great shooter. I agree that it would really be nice to put him in a secondary role like GR3 was always in where he could just clean up OREBs, cut baseline for alley-oops, etc. But we don't have a Trey Burke or Nik Stauskas creator so it falls on Matthews all too often. I think the best solution is for MAAR to handle more late clock situations compared to Matthews. The coaches have to make it happen if MAAR is too passive to demand it.
February 14th, 2018 at 1:28 PM ^
how you can play basketball your entire life, make it to this level, and have no idea how to shoot a FT. Simpson's form looks like a person who is completely unaware of the sport of basketball and was just handed a basketball and told to shoot it. I can't understand how this is possible.
February 14th, 2018 at 1:30 PM ^
I still contend it is all tied to 3pt shooting - some luck and some quality of shots. Z has fallen off a cliff after a hot start, DRob is not himself, Poole gets tentative if he misses a couple, Matthews is being asked to attack and not sit in the corner like some Beilein wings, etc. If Michigan hits 35% of their threes they are going to win.
Michigan has 7 losses. The two Purdue losses were essentially coin-flip games against a top-5 team where Michigan played well enough to win. The other 5 losses are varying degrees of frustrating. Here are the stats:
- In those 5 losses Michigan shot 26% from 3.
- In the other 22 games Michigan has hit 39% from 3, even including some recent clunkers that turned into victories.
All of the other factors do play a role here (Z's shooting, free throws, Livers hurt, ball screen inefficiencies, Matthews hitting a wall, etc.).....but if they just hit a nominal rate of 3s around 33-37% then they will beat everyone but the very elite.
February 14th, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^
Meanwhile, Rahk is at 119.5, with a turnover rate under 5% in conference play
That is incredible.
February 14th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
Seems like a HUGE missed opportunity. Teams are now regularly switching their tiny guards onto Moe because they know he can't post up. It baffles me that Moe has not figured out how to out muscle these guards for position. I don't know if the coaches haven't been pounding it in enough but it has happened regularly since the first Purdue game.
When you get the ball into the post when a small guy is guarding Moe, either Moe gets a great opportunity to score or somebody has to help, opening up good looks from beyond the arch.
February 14th, 2018 at 3:45 PM ^
While too inconsistent to put together a title run, I think Michigan has the weapons to make some noise in the tournament.
Both Poole and Livers are budding stars; they could absolutely explode at any time. It's somewhat unlikely to happen this year - at least for entire games - but either or both could make enough of an impact to beat a good team.
In addition, both Matthews and Wagner are capable of dominating a game. They're wildly inconsistent, but dangerous when hot. Obviously Matthews has been slumping, and has only shown flashes of being dominant, but it's probably in him.
Defense, depth and coaching will probably keep us in games; a poor shooting night will probably be our downfall.
I'm hopeful for some fun this year, and super excited for the future!
February 14th, 2018 at 3:53 PM ^
I'm usually never at a loss for words but the AHHHHH video has left me absolutely speechless. WHAT the F@#$ was all I could muster. In its defense dude was feeling it, his pride really shined through. Wow I can't even remember what they were discussing.
February 14th, 2018 at 9:42 PM ^
February 16th, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^
I live in this great city.
Located between Holland, Michigan and Grand Rapids.
Minutes from Lake Michigan.
Two hours plus to Chicago.
One hour plus to Ann Arbor.
The salad bowl city.
The home of big Blake Hibbit's.
What a city.
Go Blue!!!
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