FORMATION NOTES: So I heard you like doing cocaine and then doing more cocaine and then coaching a football team's defense.

OSU, like Illinois, was +1 in the box on standard downs the whole game. Unlike Illinois they did not almost always have a safety who would not be on the screen in the above shot. Otherwise: OSU ran their 4-2-5 virtually the whole game, sometimes with one "deep" safety and sometimes with two; this alignment was especially aggressive with the deepest guy at 7 yards but 10 was not uncommon.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Keegan returned at left guard and Barnhart stayed on at RT. Jones got in for maybe a half dozen snaps as a bonus OL. It appears that general opinion on Barnhart is considerably higher than I expected—he was an All Big Ten honorable mention to both the coaches and media—so maybe I've been a bit pessimistic about his play.

Obviously there was quite a bit of involuntary rotation at RB. Corum tried but could not go; M turned to Stokes. Stokes had a couple issues on his first carries, so Edwards got the large bulk of the remaining work. Stokes did reappear for some snaps in the second half. Gash got in for a goal line play action that went to Loveland. Mullings got two snaps, which I probably do not have to tell you.

Colston Loveland was TE1 in this game. Schoonmaker returned but basically only got in on multiple TE sets. WR rotation was pretty tight, with Andrel Anthony and AJ Henning getting scattered snaps as Wilson, Bell, and Johnson got the vast bulk of PT.

[After THE JUMP: if you take out those five plays…]

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Motion	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Gun 2TE	1	2	2	Nickel over	6	Pass	Improv	N	Schoonmaker	Inc
Probably telling that OSU has a light box on snap one because M usually passes on it. Good pocket, mostly, but Harrison bulls back Zinter some. JJ has a short pass to Schoonmaker if he leads Schoon away from a zone LB but instead breaks the pocket. He tries to find Schoonmaker as he nears the sideline but LB underneath is able to get his fingers on it and knock it away. (MA, +0, 0, protection 2/2)
M25	2	10	Gun 2TE	1	2	2	4-3 over	8	Run	Lead zone	N	Corum	4
Loveland lined up just behind Keegan and he looks like he’s trying to insert to the right here but Olu(-0.5) gets rocked back a bit by the nose and that gap isn’t there. Keegan(+1) wants to double that guy but as he slants away he adjusts, first stalling out a linebacker and then climbing to a second. Loveland(+0.5) picks off the guy Keegan left; extra guy in the box makes contact with Corum at two yards. RPS -1.
M29	3	6	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel wide	6	Pass	Drag	N	Johnson	12
Harrison speed rushes up the field and way overruns it; Barnhart escorts him past at ten yards and counting. JJ again decides to bail, not strictly necessary but OK. He has Johnson on a drag and puts I behind him but Johnson’s able to spin back and grab it, then mostly dodge a tackle for some YAC. (MA, -0.5, 2, protection 2/2)
M41	1	10	Pistol FB Big	1	3	1	4-3 even	8	Run	Split zone	N	Corum	2
Jones in as a bonus OL. Safety at eight yards inserts and again meets Corum at the POA. Normal Corum means this is asking to get got but he exits after this play, clearly not right. Both DTs plow Olu, weird, he goes backwards. Hayes(+1) chips a DE and gets to a LB; Keegan(+0.5) shoves one of the DTs upfield, gap but filled. Second DT comes off Olu and shuts down the space; safety hits at the LOS. RPS -1. Jones(+1) got a healthy chunk of that DE and put him on the ground when he tried to release.
M43	2	8	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Fly	N	Bell	Inc
Corner blitz; Edwards picks it up but pretty close to JJ and he’s got to get this out. DB gets over the top of Bell and shuts him down so this is nowhere near. (Not charted, +0, 0, protection 2/2, Bell route-)
M43	3	8	Gun trips bunch	1	1	3	4-3 under	7	Pass	Improv	N	Bell	33
Just a three man rush with a guy dropping out to spy. Barnhart(-1) oversets and the DE uses a chip to come inside of him; JJ bails again, motioning Bell deep and loading up to hit him when he breaks wide open. Ball is short but JJ is on the move and getting pressure so getting this as far downfield as it gets is impressive. (CA+, +1, 3, protection 0/1, Bell route +)
O24	1	10	Pistol 3TE	1	3	1	4-3 under	9	Pass	Throwaway	N	N/A	-10
First zero blitz of the day; everyone within seven yards of the LOS here. Blitz off the corner is clean through as Honigford(-2) checks inside and hits Barnhart’s guy. JJ turns around with a guy in his face and makes a questionable heave in the general direction of Edwards which one of his OL knocks down. This is close enough that you could say he was in the area but the nature of the throw means grounding is likely to come out and it does. This throw is way too dangerous to justify the attempt even if it is a pretty devastating loss. (BR, -1, 0, protection 0/2)
O34	2	20	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Out	WR	Johnson	Inc
Not an ideal read from JJ as Loveland’s drag route pulls a linebacker out of his zone and Bell is running in behind him over the middle of the field for a nice catch and run. This throw is much tougher to a decently covered Johnson and he airmails it. (IN, -1, 0, protection 2/2)
O34	3	20	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	Dime even	6	Pass	Drag screen	N	Henning	3
This is a screen with everyone except Henning blocking, but they do not have a guy for the dude in man coverage on Henning. I guess they’re expecting/hoping for zone? (CA, +0, 3, screen, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: FG(47), 3-7, 6 min 1st Q,
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Motion	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel under	6.5	Run	Insert iso	WR	Stokes	2
Orbit motion from Henning draws a safety and a CB folds back here so this is pretty much even in the box. Zinter(+1) erases a blitzing LB; Loveland(+0.5) finds the MLB. Olu(-0.5) almost loses his guy, who comes all the way around but goes to the ground as he tries to tackle Stokes. Stokes(-1) cuts past this but doesn’t downshift enough and runs into Loveland’s legs, falling over. Real hard not to think what Corum does with a lot of space and a cornerback trying to bring him down here.
M27	2	8	Pistol FB	1	2	2	4-3 under	7.5	Run	Power GH cutback	TE flip	Stokes	3
Stokes(-2) misses a massive cutback lane here. OSU is stunting; DT escorted out by Keegan(+0.5); Hayes(+1) finds and eliminates a blitzing LB. Olu is chasing the stunting DL and will be able to push him past the play if asked to. Not sure how to feel about the Zinter pull. He pulls tight and blasts a guy that Honigford is in a stalemate with, which looks odd but is probably intentional given his path. Zinter(+1) blows this guy out; two OSU players flow over the top of that block as OSU plays to spill power, and Stokes cuts into them instead of putting his foot in the ground and going vertical fast behind the Zinter block. I think this is a subtle tweak to take advantage of how OSU plays power that doesn’t get executed.
M30	3	5	Gun 4-wide	1	2	2	Nickel even	6.5	Pass	Out	WR	Bell	Inc
McCarthy airmails it to an open Bell. This is high and hard on a five yard route where your WR is wide open; Bell does get fingertips to it but this should never be this difficult. (IN, -1, 1, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-10, 14 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Motion	Player	Yards
M34	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	2	2	4-3 over	7.5	Run	Split zone	TE	Edwards	-1
Bredeson(-2) comes in motion to be the split blocker and airballs his kickout. DE makes a TFL; this was otherwise open for a solid chunk as OSU spends a box guy outside of the kickout.  Olu(+0.5) and Barnhart(+0.5) both get second level blocks and Zinter(+0.5) largely controls a DT. RPS +1.
M33	2	11	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Exotic	7	Pass	Batted	TE	???	Inc
Hayes(-1) gets driven back into JJ’s lap by Harrison; JJ attempts to get the ball out has no chance. (PR, +0, N/A, protection ½)
M33	3	11	Gun twin TE	1	2	2	Nickel even	6	Pass	Fly	WR	Loveland	Inc
JJ just loses his cool here; he’s got a completely clean pocket but starts bugging out. If he sits in the pocket he will have forever. Instead he runs up, seemingly planning to scramble, before aborting that and hurling a ball well past a bracketed Loveland. Both TEs are running seams and bracketed; this should have gone to Bell on the sideline. (BR, -1, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 3-10, 10 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Motion	Player	Yards
M30	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Run	Pin and pull	Orbit	Edwards	2
DE goes so vertical that Loveland(-1) cannot cut him off and Zinter gets absorbed by that penetration. Hayes(+0.5) gets a kick. Keegan gets to a LB but gets knocked by that DE a bit and can’t really lock him out; Olu(+1) does seal out a charging LB. Barnhart gets a free release and can’t find anyone to block; he is trying to get to the last guy in the box but just doesn’t have a reasonable angle to do so as he has to run around the Olu block. That guy is a free hitter and collapses down on Edwards. RPS -1.
M32	2	8	Pistol twin TE	1	2	2	3-3 spread	7	Run	Split zone	WR	Edwards	-1
Loveland has the split block and DE charges so hard at this that the contact happens at the hash; Barnhart(-1) gets blown back a couple yards by JTT; Edwards can’t cut behind this because of the DE and just has to run in to JTT; Hongiford(-2) went for the edge guy, a DB, when Bell was coming for him so there is a free LB even if this doesn’t happen. RPS -1.
M31	3	9	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Exotic	7.5	Pass	Hitch	N	Johnson	69
House sent. Guy up the gut, JJ backpedals to buy time and then manages to get out a back-foot rope that gets to Johnson a yard short of the sticks. Johnson(+2) then flips outside to break the tackle and is gone because this is pure zero. (DO+, +3, 3, protection 0/2, team -2, RPS +2). Wilson(route+) was wide open as his guy gets put in the turf.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 10-10, 7 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Motion	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel over	6	Pass	PA post	WR	Johnson	75
OSU safeties are at ten yards and completely flat footed on the snap. This feels like a bust? There are three guys in the vicinity of the dig. Seems not great. Johnson(route++) gets in one on one coverage with the backup safety as Bell’s motion takes the cornerback away. He sells the out and breaks to the inside, completely flipping the S around, and McCarthy has so much room here that the main concern is just getting the ball there without missing. JJ holds him up a hair but not enough to make this even close to a tackle. (DO, +2, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +3).
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 17-13, 5 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Motion	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Power GH	TE	Edwards	4
Motion from Loveland like Michigan frequently runs split zone out of; here he stops and then goes back the other way to be one of the pullers on power. Zinter(+0.5) gets his kick; Hayes(+0.5) and Honigford(+0.5) end up blowing out Vincent but have some early trouble and by the time one would look to get a linebacker both guys have already scraped over this block. Edwards is patient but could use a little more patience here; he does not end up setting up the Loveland(-1) block and Loveland just kind of runs by a linebacker. Edwards cuts up inside as Keegan(+0.5) and Olu(+0.5) have carved out some space but the CB is a free hitter and holds this down. RPS -1.
M29	2	6	Gun twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 under	8	Run	Down T	N	Edwards	5
Frontside tackle pull from Barnhart(+0.5), who gets in position for a kickout and watches his guy run himself way out of the play upfield. Zinter(+0.5) gets blasted by more vertical play by Vincent but is able to anchor and control. Loveland(-1) and Schoon(-1) both mis-ID on late motion by OSU, with Schoon going after a LB who’s charging into the interior of the line and useless; Loveland climbs to a lienbacker when there is a DB right in front of his face. That guy is unblocked; Edwards(+1) is able to run through his tackle and near the sticks, where Harrison tracks him down from behind.
M34	3	1	Gun 2TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	9	Run	Dive	N	Mullings	0
The double here blows out the DT but Barnhart gets held by JTT and gets stuck on him so LB shoots the gap. Backside LB is unblocked and tearing right for this so both guys meet at Mullings. Should not have run dive in this game, RPS -2, will get paid off later.
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-20, 2 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Motion	Player	Yards
M33	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Out	N	Wilson	0
This is a bad read as JJ expects man coverage and gets cover 2, throwing an out directly into coverage. (BR, -1, 3, protection 1/1)
M33	2	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Out	N	Bell	8
Another quick out but this one is actually downfield; caught, immediate tackle. (CA, +0.5, 3, protection 1/1). Clock runs on third and three. OSU does call time out just as Michigan is about to rip off an RPS +2 QB draw.
M41	3	2	Gun quads	0	2	3	Nickel over	6	Penalty	False start	N	Oluwatimi	-5
Olu -1.
M36	3	7	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	3-2 dime	5	Penalty	False start	N	Barnhart	-5
Barnhart -1.
M31	3	12	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-2 dime	5	Pass	Hitch	N	Johnson	5
Give up and halftime. Ball is pretty high and hard to catch. (MA, +0, 2, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-20, EOH
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Motion	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel over	6.5	Pass	Out	N	Bell	5
Same quick out from the end of the first half, decent gain, immediate tackle. (CA, +0.5, 3, protection 1/1)
M30	2	5	I-Form Big	1	3	1	4-3 over	8	Run	Down G	N	Edwards	0
Absolute sell out here by OSU as by the time the handoff is made everyone his hauling ass at the line of scrimmage. Bredeson(-1) gets met in the backfield and doesn’t win his block but this is brutally difficult. Loveland(+0.5) turns in his guy and Zinter(+0.5) gets a kick; Edwards gets eaten up at the LOS. RPS -2.
M30	3	5	Pistol FB 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	7	Run	Arc power CT	N	Edwards	4
FB exits the backfield to arc for JJ, bringing a safety in the box with him as he mirrors Schoon. JTT forms up on JJ, give. (ZR+). LBs actually reading this out. Zinter(+0.5) hinges back and controls a DT; Vincent gets driven back by Hayes(+0.5) and there’s a gap right up the gut; Edwards(+0.5) hits it; Vincent is able to get off the Hayes block in a flash and come over to tackle to keep this down; impressive.
M34	4	1	Pistol 3-wide tight	1	1	3	4-3 even	11	Run	Dive	N	Edwards	2
Tempo dive gets it this time as Barnhart(+0.5) fires through JTT and the LB does not try to shoot the gap at all, RPS +1.
M36	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Improv	N	Wilson	Inc
Keegan(-1) does get beat after a moment and while he shoves this is a pretty reasonable decision to leave the pocket. JJ’s got a big gap but an OSU guy is spying and shoots up; he finds Wilson downfield and chucks a pretty accurate 30-yard ball on the run but it’s a bit low and would be an incredible catch for Wilson to dig out. (MA+, +0.5, 1, protection ½)
M36	2	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	7	Run	Zone read keeper	N	McCarthy	19
The other half of this play is belly with Barnhart(+1) and Zinter(+1) clubbing the DT down the LOS as a LB gets caught in the wash. JTT shuffles but cheats and JJ pulls (ZR+2) in a non-obvious situation. Guys on the edge are simulating a screen so the DBs are occupied. JJ(+2) lowers his head as he reaches the sticks and runs through a tackle attempt, then drives McAlister for another five or six. RPS +1, this was going to work either way.
O45	1	10	Gun 2TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	8	Pass	TE out and up	Orbit	Loveland	45
Double PA with a fake handoff and fake end around. OSU again in zero. M in max pro sending just two guys deep; Johnson falls down as he gets shoved into Loveland but Ransom just completely overplays this like an idiot and gets immediately run past. JJ puts the arc on it, completion with YAC for the TD. (DO, +2, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +3)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 24-20, 12 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Motion	Player	Yards
M13	1	10	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	3-3 spread	6	Pass	Hitch	WR to RB	Bell	Inc
This is going to be a dink for five yards and it gets returned to sender by a DT. (BA, +0, 0, protection 1/1)
M13	2	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-3 spread	7	Pass	Back shoulder fade	N	Bell	Inc
God this could be a big gain too but this feels like JJ making the wrong throw because he gets a bit sped up as a DE is vaguely threatening. Bell gets shoved almost to the sideline but hesitates and gets a bite and gets over the top of the CB covering him; a downfield looper is a good idea. JJ throws the back shoulder instead, which is in an area Bell can get it but gets PBUd by the CB more or less by accident. Dude is never looking for the ball but has his hands between Bell’s and that’s enough. (MA, +0, 1, protection 1/1)
M13	3	10	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	RB flat	N	Edwards	2
OSU shows blitz and then backs out with the LB dropping perfectly to combat this route. Looks open, isn’t, tackle, punt time. (CA, +0.5, 3, protection 1/1, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 24-20, 8 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Motion	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6.5	Pass	Improv	N	Edwards	7
Not entirely sure what to do with Barnhart’s pass pro here as an OSU guy beats him to the inside but in doing so completely gives up the corner. -1, I guess. JJ rolls out and finds Edwards but puts it low and robs him of an opportunity to get some YAC. (MA, -0.5, 2, protection ½)
M27	2	3	Gun trips TE	1	1	3	???	6.5	Run	QB counter GT	N	McCarthy	5
Come to this late; bash threatened with Edwards as two OL pull the other way. DE forms up on Edwards, pull (ZR+). Zinter(+1) and Barnhart(-1) double a DT, turning him in; Barnhart has an opportunity to climb to the LB but does not. LB surges upfield on a blitz and gets in the backfield; Keegan(+1) able to get around this and get to a DE. Corner is open to convert. RPS +1. This just needed one block to be a nice chunk.
M32	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel under	6	Pass	Scramble	N	McCarthy	9
Harrison around at 9-10 and no push from the inside so pocket integrity breaks down. JJ breaks the pocket and sees no one so he goes and gets nine, sliding forward to keep yards and not get his head lit up. (SCR, +1, N/A, protection 2/2)
M41	2	1	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel under	6	Run	Split zone	N	Edwards	12
Chunk by alignment here as OSU has their safeties aggressive but has a super light box with a huge gap between the NT and a nine-tech DE. Loveland(+0.5) kicks the DT; NT doesn’t even slant to the gap and gets wiped by Keegan(+1). LB sucks up on JJ. Jones(+0.5) and Hayes(+0.5) find guys downfield. RPS +2, this was not a huge gain but M almost could not get a chunk here.
O47	1	10	Gun 2TE	1	2	2	4-3 over	8	Run	Bash	N	Edwards	9
Other half of the QB counter above. DE is charging and not wide, give, ZR+. Edwards(+1) still has to avoid that guy and run through a tackle but does. Once he does he’s got a lane as Bell(+0.5) and Schoon(+0.5) fight off DBs; DT is able to read it and chase Edwards down, grabbing his arm and getting Edwards to the ground. RPS +1.
O38	2	1	Gun 3-wide	1	2	2	4-3 over SAM	7	Pass	Fly	WR	Anthony	Inc
Hayes(-1) gets driven back into JJ by JTT. He’s still attached and JJ could spin out of this and break the pocket if he wants so not -2, but JJ sits in the pocket and fires, getting contacted on the throw. He wants Andrel Anthony on a fly route; he is over the top of both Burke and Hickman but this one will have to be in stride, and it’s wide and short. (PR, +0, 0, protection ½)
O38	3	1	Goal line	1	4	0	Goal line	11	Pass	RB pop pass	N	Schoonmaker	15
Handoff to Mullings, OL just trying to give him time to get the pass off. Mullings apparently can see anything but just tosses it up there and since OSU has sold out this floats its way to Schoonmaker for a completion. Coulda shoulda TD. (not charted, 3, RPS +2). Honestly though… there’s no need to hand this off! If this is straight PA JJ looks up and has Schoonmaker open by 20 yards and just flicks a TD.
O23	1	10	Gun trip TE	1	3	1	4-3 under	7	Run	Inside zone	N	Edwards	6
Harrison just jumps inside of Barnhart(+1), who does a good job in the circumstances to stalemate him, and now there’s no edge. Edwards(+0.5) sees it and hits it. Anthony(+1) does a good job to get around a trap corner and wall him off.
O17	2	4	Gun 3-wide	1	2	2	Nickel over	7	Run	Split zone	TE	Edwards	1
Split zone gets a scrape exchange here and Bredeson(-1) gets run over by JTT. Keegan(-0.5) is doubling a DT and doesn’t read the situation so he releases to a LB that Hayes(+0.5) has IDed correctly and a DT also surges through. Edwards wedges between them for a couple. ZR+.
O16	3	3	Gun 2TE	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Split zone	N	Edwards	3
Honigford(+2) washes JTT down and pancakes him(!); Loveland(+1) gets a difficult kickout against a charging LB; unlike the last play JTT is not the kickout guy so it works. Keegan(+0.5) walls off a DT; Hayes(+0.5) finds a charging LB. Edwards has a gap filled by the FS, who contacts at 2 but can’t prevent the conversion.
O13	1	10	Gun trip TE	1	3	1	4-3 over	9	Run	Inside zone	N	Edwards	-1
Blitzball time as the MLB shoots up the middle, driving Keegan(-1) back. DT loops around this and with Olu not able to recognize, largely because he has a second level guy, this gets crushed at the LOS. RPS -2.
O13	2	11	Ace trip TE	1	3	1	4-3 over	9	Pass	PA improv	N	Schoonmaker	Inc
Max pro with just two guys in the route and a DB still gets through on a blitz scot free as it appears Zinter(-2) blocks down on a guy who  Olu has. JJ turns around and has a dude in his face immediately. He manages to Houdini out of the situation and throws a rocket to Schoonmaker but the catch will be OOB even if made. (PR, +1, 0, protection 0/2)
O13	3	11	Gun trips bunch	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Improv	N	Bell	Inc (Pen +11)
Outright jailbreak here with Hayes(-1) getting spun through, Olu(-1) airballing, and Edwards(-1) doing nothing on his chip. Three guys fling themselves at JJ, who gives ground and hurls up a moonball at Bell. This is insanely accurate. Bell has a shot at it and gets run over by a panicking DB; ball is incomplete but the flag comes out. (DO+, +3, 0, protection 0/3)
O2	1	G	Goal line	1	4	0	Goal line	11	Run	Down G	N	Edwards	-1
Man, down G is a reasonable idea but this has Loveland(-1) trying to block down on JTT and he gets crushed. Keegan(-1) lets his guy inside as well as OSU flings a guy to the outside so he is not just a force player. Edwards eats it. RPS -1.
O3	2	G	Goal line	1	4	0	Goal line	11	Pass	PA boot flat	N	Loveland	Inc
Argh, Bredeson goes in motion and gets a guy chasing him and then that guy just stops. Throwback is six. Not reasonable to expect that if that’s not the call. OSU all over this, JJ tries to hit a very covered Loveland and just misses but with guys undercutting this I don’t think this is a bad throw or idea. (MA, +0, 0, protection N/A, RPS -1). They put Gash in, which seems like a hell of a tip.
O3	3	G	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Goal line	8	Run	QB stretch	N	McCarthy	3
JJ gets to the line and sees something in the OSU alignment before they’re even down. He goes to the LOS and starts hitting guys, saying WE NEED TO GO NOW, and they go. They’ve got that same insane gap between the NT and a DE, and they run a stretch at it. NT surges upfield; Olu(+1) reaches him, yanks him down, and then throws his hands up in the NO FLAG stance. Hayes(+0.5) kicks JTT. JJ cuts inside of this and really could cut literally any direction for a TD. He outruns Keegan, doesn’t even need to use him, and runs over a safety to get in. RPS +1.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 31-20, 13 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Motion	Player	Yards
M43	1	10	Pistol FB Big	1	3	1	4-3 over	9	Pass	PA post	N	Johnson	Inc (Pen +15)
PA, max pro. Eight guys shoot up so it’s 2 v 3 on the back end and I suspect Loveland is wide open on an over route but no confirmation. JJ loads up for the post and Johnson is over the top of this. Ball is short, catchable but short, and a recovering safety runs over Johnson. (CA, +0.5, 0, protection 2/2)
O42	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	8	Run	Arc read give	N	Edwards	3
M doesn’t seem well prepared for an odd front here; this ends up being a read no one play as Barnhart(-1) first blocks a DE but then leaves him to go hit a whole bunch of nothing. JJ gives(ZR+) as there is an overhang LB who will get after him; DE crashes down on Edwards and creates a minimal gain. Zinter(+0.5) got a good second level block.
O39	2	7	Gun twins	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Bash	N	Edwards	-1
Another QB counter/bash play on which the DE shoots upfield and JJ gives(ZR+); Edwards(-2) gets past Harrison and decides to shoot directly upfield, at which point the ghost of a whisper of Harrison's contact causes him to stumble and get nothing. RPS +1, this really should be a thing.
O40	3	8	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	7	Run	QB keep	N	McCarthy	1
JJ pulls as the DE crashes(ZR+) but playside LB drops out and Loveland blocks him but is blocking for the RB so when DB releases to the corner he has no shot and JJ gets strung out. RPS -1.
Drive Notes: Missed FG(57), 31-20, 10 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Motion	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-3 stack	7	Run	Inside zone	N	Edwards	75
Three man front, spread wide. NT hops over a gap or two; Olu(+2) doesn’t follow that at all and extends to a linebacker. Zinter(+1) picks up and kicks another blitzing LB. Gap. No free hitter as they have an actual safety here and someone’s checking JJ. Once Edwards is through the line it’s just him one on one with a safety and Edwards(+3) slows down a tiny bit before just dusting this dude and scoring. RPS +2.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 38-23, 7 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Motion	Player	Yards
M8	1	10	Gun twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 over	8	Run	Inside zone	N	Edwards	6
Barnhart(+1) gets an eliminating kick on a DE; Zinter(+2) chips and then wipes a linebacker, big gap. Edwards(+0.5) hits it but Eichenberg is able to redirect after shooting into the line and gets him down.
M14	2	4	Gun 3-wide	1	2	2	4-3 even	9	Run	Split zone	N	Edwards	1
Desperation for OSU so they’re basically in goal line here. Barnhart(-1) eats an ole from his guy but at least he’s way upfield. Jones has no shot at guy slanting inside of him and that guy gets penetration. Edwards chased into EMLOS and gets a yard.
M15	3	3	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	8	Run	Inside zone	N	Edwards	85
Two OSU LB/DB types rip off the backside. Ransom, the S, should be going for Edwards all the way but hesitates one step when JJ might have it. That’s enough. Zinter(+2) chips Vincent so hard that he gets blasted across the formation and then immediately kicks out a DB. Olu(+1) does enough to make this work. Edwards(+1) hits the gap and is then just gone because Edwards. RPS +2.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 45-23, 3 min 4th Q. Final snaps are kneel-downs.

 

Okay, so if you take out the five long… cumong man.

Cumong what?

You can't make me say this stuff.

Your role, Bolded Alter-Ego, is to shape these posts by presenting arguments from the internet I have seen and allow me to confirm or dis-confirm said arguments.

I have self-respect, you know. I'm not going to just sit here and say OSU dominated 90% of the game and just lacked execution on five touchdowns of 45+ yards. You have to give me something to work with. Nobody is saying this!

Alas, BAE, alas:

JJ on non big plays- 9/21-74yds 0TDs- exactly who we thought he was, none of those TD passes were anything special and 2 were a little under thrown but the absolute failure of the secondary in technique and busted coverages made them easy completions. 3/10 on throws over 10yds and 2 of them were busted coverage
Running game without the 2 long Runs- 33 runs for 92yds 2.7ypc- exactly what we thought we were going to do. I don’t care what anyone says Jim Knowles called a great game plan, a GREAT one.

GTFO.

I am sorry that the internet has vomited this take up in many, many places populated by Ohio State fans. It even made it to analytics twitter and drew approval from the king of analytics himself:

Good thread from Ed. It wouldn't surprise me if Michigan were slightly favored in a rematch, but "lose success rate by 10% but score 5 TDs of 40+ yards" isn't a sustainable recipe for constant domination. (It is, however, a very FUN recipe that I think more teams should try.) https://t.co/A6iNE5xXlM

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 28, 2022

It is a thing that's out there.

17 million people watched the game but apparently nobody watched it?

Dang, BAE. Well… yes, that is my take too. It is generally true that teams that rely on a few big plays to win games are less likely to repeat that success than teams that are consistently having plays that put them in short yardage situations, but these takes are most useful for football games in the heart of the distribution, and not ones where the opposition is insanely reckless. The best example of this is not actually one of the touchdowns but the pop pass from Mullings. That did not need to be a trick play. At the time of the handoff all 11 Ohio State players are committed to the line of scrimmage:

This is a walk-in touchdown if it's just standard play action.

Ohio State decided to play a ton of zero coverage with a bad secondary, and the long plays were no fluke. The two deep passes were so wide open that arcing moonballs that held up receivers did not prevent them from being touchdowns.

LOOK AT IT

CORNELIUS JOHNSON HAS ONE ALBANIA BETWEEN HIMSELF AND THE OHIO STATE SAFETY AND YOU WANT TO TALK ABOUT VARIANCE? CORNELIUS JOHNSON IS A DISTANT REDSHIFTED QUASAR AND THIS IS NOT REPEATABLE?

The hitch just required a single missed tackle, something we see constantly across college football. The Edwards touchdowns were both aggressive fronts that shot linebackers into the LOS and left Ohio State without a second level at all.

Meanwhile Michigan's defense bled OSU down the field and got them in third and medium situations where their drives ended way too often because OSU's success rate is too flat.

Too flat?

Their power success rate is 112th in the country, so you can have successful first and second down plays and that success is hollow because to you third and two might as well be third and six. The success rate math does not work when you convert third and short on the ground at a 58% clip. Also, a solid chunk of that success rate is Michigan bleeding OSU down the field in the fourth quarter while up two scores.

So these arguments are bunk because if OSU plays in a way that prevents the long plays Michigan's success rate shoots up, and unless OSU suddenly converts third and short more consistently their gaudy success rate in this game is illusory. It does not count on the scoreboard.

But Michigan hitting on 5/5 touchdown opportunities… that's pretty lucky, right?

That denominator is wrong. Michigan had plenty of additional opportunities to hit huge plays because Ohio State's allergy to deep safeties was incredible. The Ronnie Bell catch downfield is a touchdown if McCarthy is able to get the ball a few yards farther downfield:

That's four points left on the board. Michigan also missed a couple of chunk runs because Corum was out—probably more than a couple—and a Joel Honigford pass pro bust on the grounding penalty was the only thing standing between JJ and another shot at a long TD against zero.

Also, the nature of these bombs are not like CJ Stroud dealing up a dime to Marvin Harrison against solid coverage from Gemon Green. The above was the easiest seventy-five yard touchdown bomb in college football history and the Loveland one wasn't a whole lot different:

If you want to say that Michigan is unlikely to hit all of those, okay, I guess, but if we're talking hypothetical rematch scenarios they did not have the best player in college football.

But it's just execution errors?

Illinois had plenty of execution errors in their game—Michigan put up 376 yards and left a bunch more on the field—but when they had an execution error their safety cleaned it up and Michigan got a chunk, not a TD. The OSU rant I linked above is a thorough film breakdown that has a bunch of complaints about how OSU is playing these insanely aggressive calls:

All the corners are in press man- and Brown tipped his hand early opening up pre-snap to bail technique

But dude when that is the second-worst coverage on the play by a mile…

…maybe you should bake in some expectations that your players are going to screw up. This is college and your defensive backs have been average at best all year.

But they out-physicaled us? CUMONG

Ryan Day literally said it at half time.

FINE

OSU's successes against Michigan's ground game in the first half were largely twofold: tactical wins and no Corum. The blocking was mostly very good with a few exceptions where Michigan TEs got overwhelmed. Corum's first run is blocked just fine but the free hitter is in the gap as Michigan doesn't do much of anything to put him in the wrong spot:

This split zone on a later drive sees the OSU defensive end attack this so hard that Loveland makes contact with him on the hashmark where the play was snapped from:

OSU DE to top

Like the pop pass embedded above, this is OSU declining to read and react and play Michigan straight up—something which would have probably worked here since JTT wins comprehensively against Barnhart. They are relying on their scout and assuming that Michigan will do what they have done the rest of the season. Sometimes they were right and Michigan got stuffed. Sometimes they were not right.

Then Michigan's second drive had back-to-back ohhhh no plays from Stokes. Here he appears to get tripped up from a glancing hit from a DT's arm:

This guy who folded back is the same corner who Cornelius Johnson would dust for a touchdown. You have to figure that Blake Corum is better than 50/50 to make this guy go straight to hell and see what's up with the safety:

The second looks like power and develops a huge cutback lane:

I looked at this a lot and believe that the cutback lane is the play design because Zinter's route on his pull is not what you'd usually see if he was trying to get outside the tight end. M knows OSU wants to spill power so once it looks like power you get two OSU guys hopping outside of the tight end; if Olu is able to push the stunting NT past Stokes is gone to the safety. Stokes got yanked in favor of Edwards for most of the rest of the game.

Michigan was given limited opportunities to get after DTs with doubles. OSU saw what happened to Iowa and Illinois's success and decided they'd make sure that didn't happen, so virtually everything is a stunt or a slant with linebackers flying to the LOS so that you have to get off your double. On the occasional opportunities to do what they've been so good at all year, it went pretty much the same way. This is Vincent, OSU's best DT:

TE #84 and LT #76 to top of line

OSU's determination to not let doubles happen was a major factor on the two long Edwards TDs, both of which have zero second level because the entire OSU front is already buried in the LOS.

So… they did not out-physical us.

Any attempt by OSU to lighten their front was immediately punished, and some of it looked… strange. This alignment is asking whether Michigan would like a free twelve yards. Michigan thinks about it and says yes:

Bust, right? Someone's not doing something. Well, on the touchdown that would end this marathon drive JJ McCarthy appears to ID this before OSU even lines up, so he gets Michigan to the line as quickly as possible and does not let OSU check.

How are you running that bubble in your front on the goal line? Big-12-ass coordinator.

The Edwards touchdown was Knowles trying to trick Michigan into something—I don't know what he's doing. He's got a three man line here with both ends outside of the tackles, so Michigan knows something weird is coming. The nose tackle hops over two gaps, and Michigan just picks it up:

I mean, it's zone. So you block who's in your zone. And Ohio State decided that the two guys they wanted to have go up against Olu and Zinter were linebackers.

How was McCarthy?

I hope you like weird charts. Because the charts this week are weird. Here's McCarthy:

JJ MCCARTHY

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
Colorado State		4+											100%	oops		0/0	4/4
Hawaii	4	8(1)+											100%	+14		1/1	3/3
UConn	2++	5(6)			1	2							100%	+11		1/1	1/2
Maryland	2	15(1)	1						1	5	3**		67%	+1.5		1/2	1/3
Iowa	3+	11+(4)			3	3			1	3			78%	+8		1/1	2/3
Indiana	2	22++(3)	1		1	1				2*	3		83%	+16		4/4	4/5
Penn State	3	9(5)	2		2	1		1		1(3)	2		78%	+4.5		5/6	3/3
MSU	2	12(1)++	3		2	3				3	2		77%	+8.5		2/2	1/2
Rutgers	4	12(2)+	1		2	3		1		1(1)			89%	+10		0/1	0/1
Nebraska		11+			3					3	2		69%	+4.5		1/1	0
Illinois	2	19+(3)			1	2		2	1	5*	2*		68%	+3		0/0	2/4
Ohio State	4	5(1)	1		3	7		1		3	2		67%	+13.5		0/0	7/7

(Run +/- is in the other chart; the above is solely a passing/decisions grade.)

An absolute ton of MAs. Same DSR as the last two weeks but +13.5(!!!) instead of +3 or +4. This discrepancy is two things. One: mesh point decisions go in this number and McCarthy was 7/7; all of these came in the second half. One of them was a +2 for a non-obvious pull on his 19 yarder. Two: four DOs, a couple of them of the +3 variety.

So. McCarthy had some bumps. His early airmail of an out that would have converted a third down was spiritually crushing, and he had a couple of almosts on his out-of-pocket throws. I gave this one a +0.5 despite the incompletion because just getting a chance at a big gain here is improbable:

There were a ton of almosts in this game. Some of those MAs are barely missing guys 30 yards downfield while on the run; only a couple are taking dudes off their feet on catchable balls.

A large part of this was the down to down pressure OSU was bringing. They blitzed a ton and got some organic pressure; Michigan had some issues keeping up. McCarthy endured and had some truly incredible off-platform moments. The first touchdown is one:

To get that out on a line in time for Johnson to make his man miss after dropping back to buy time and throwing off your back foot is eyepopping. Then the Bell PI play is just… how:

I've looked at it quiet a bit by now: That is fairly likely to be complete without the interference. To get that up in that situation is insane. JJ's ability to escape from terrible situations got him a +1 on an incompletion, because getting out of this without any damage is a huge win:

Mistakes worse than MAs were limited to a few iffy balls and a couple of questionable decisions. This back-shoulder to Bell should probably just be a downfield shot since Bell gets over the top:

But none of his BRs are for throwing it directly at an opposition player; the worst thing he did in this game was the heave sort of at Edwards that got flagged. That easily could have been intercepted.

7/7 zone reads? I thought… you know, that wasn't going well?

Given the results here and in the PSU game one assumption you could make is that decisions I thought were bad against lesser teams were not actually live. Here he was great.

Michigan probably should have got that train going sooner. McCarthy wasn't activated until the second half. I think Michigan was excessively conservative here—some QB run game would have been very welcome in the early-going when Michigan couldn't buy a first down. I gave him a +2 for correctly sussing out that JTT was cheating to the back on his 19-yarder:

After a few games where JJ's reads seemed a little off he was 100% on point here, missing not a single mesh point decision. This immediately started paying dividends—the Edwards chunk above features Edwards running by an unblocked LB who is looking up McCarthy. If we can go back to the 75-yarder…

OSU DB #14, LB level, to bottom

Earlier in the game his safety partner was the guy stuffing up Corum on a play that Michigan had blocked just fine. Now OSU spends him on McCarthy and when Michigan blocks it right Edwards is to the safety and gonzo. Running your QB == RB explosives.

Speaking of weird charts…

Blocking chart gonna be weird?

Yessir:

 

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Hayes	5.5		+5.5	Not knocked back once.
Keegan	5	2.5	+2.5	Burly interior.
Oluwatimi	6	2	+4	Kind of a nonfactor until he was crucial on two TDs.
Zinter	12		+12	This man for All American.
Jones	1.5		+1.5	Scattered bonus OL snaps.
Barnhart	4.5	5	-0.5	Tough matchup usually against JTT.
El-Hadi				DNP
Anderson				DNP
Persi				DNP
All				DNP
Schoonmaker	0.5	1	-0.5	Still dinged maybe?
Honigford	2.5	2	+0.5	Flattened JTT for a +2.
Hibner
Bredeson		4	-4	Got crushed on a couple split blocks.
Loveland	3	4	-1	I mean… yeah.
TOTAL	40.5	20.5	66%	Mendozaaaaaa
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
McCarthy	2		+2	19-yarder was nice.
McNamara				DNP
Orji				DNP
Corum				DNC
Edwards	7.5	2	+5.5	Mostly just being fast but God he's fast.
Stokes		3	-3	He'll learn from this.
Dunlap				DNC
TOTAL	9.5	5	+4.5	Gash DNC either.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Johnson	2		+2	Mmm broken tackle and outruns Sawyer.
Bell	0.5		0.5
Henning
Wilson
Anthony	1		+1
Clemons
TOTAL	3.5		+3.5
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	29	14	67%	-3 Hayes, –2 Barnhart, –2 Zinter, –2 Honigford, –2 TEAM, –1 Keegan, –1 Olu, –1 Edwards
RPS	23	16	+7	Like Illinois but with buckets of TDs.

Okay. So. Numbers are way down because M only had 60 snaps and threw on many more of them than usual.  The OL was largely incredible on the ground except for Barnhart, who muddled through against JTT and got beat a few different times. The tight ends struggled. Neither Bredeson nor Loveland was really ready to take on a 270 pound DE, and they got beat on a few different plays. Add it up and it exactly hits our desired 2:1 positive ratio.

Pass protection was rough, and if you though last week's RPS fest was silly, I present you RPS-fest: 2 Fest 2 RPS. This is a game that tests the fidelity of the RPS scale. Generally RPS does not go higher than +3, with occasional extraordinary +4 events for virtually free TDs. So that number above is not at all calibrated to five long touchdown's impact.

OSU's wins were generally –1s. OSU did have a lot of Michigan's stuff downloaded, so when they went back to the well they had issues. The main problem on the stuffed Mullings third and one is that JTT grabs Barnhart so he cannot release and a linebacker shoots the gap.

RT #52, OSU DE #44 to bottom

Later in the game Michigan would convert on the dive but that was a tempo snap and Barnhart was able to chip through the DE; the linebacker did not shoot the gap anyway.

The rest of the negatives are more stuff described above. OSU spent a lot of plays firing absurdly hard at run action. This gets crunched largely because the MLB meets Bredeson a yard in the backfield:

I duly gave Bredeson a negative but to me this is a near-impossible situation for him, and even if he does cut that guy off there's a safety sitting at two yards. This was the beginning of the third quarter, after two long touchdowns, and OSU was still going nuts.

Things started going Michigan's way more consistently in the second half, when McCarthy's legs got involved and OSU finally got the message that Jackass is a television show, not a defensive philosophy. Michigan brought out an old Urban Meyer staple with bash opposite a QB power run:

Drip drip drip of positives and then you get wide open guys. Sometimes I do not RPS wide open dudes because I credit it to the WR; here I did because of constant zero coverage. I also RPSed a three-man line against Michigan, and the final play because even if Ransom screws up Michigan gave him cause to and the result was explosive. YMMV.

Receivers?

	THIS WEEK					THIS YEAR
Player	Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine		Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine
Johnson	1		2/2	2/2		5	2/5	3/4	20/22
Bell	3	0/2		3/3		11	2/8	0/1	40/42
Wilson		0/1		1/1		3	1/4	2/2	14/15
Anthony	1					6	0/1	0/1	6/8
Henning				1/1					3/4
Morris								1/1
Walker							0/1	0/1
All						1	1/1		1/1
Schoonmaker	2			1/1		3	1/3	3/5	24/25
Honigford
Hibner
Bredeson						1			5/5
Loveland	1			1/1		4	2/2		7/7
Corum						1			7/7
Edwards			1/1	1/1		1		3/3	13/13
Stokes									1/2
Gash									2/3

Routes: Johnson ++, Bell +-, Wilson +.

Not a whole lot of excitement in the chart because the bombs were so wide open they got dumped in routine. Such is life.

What does it mean for the Big Ten Championship game?

Welp. Reports are rolling in that Corum is done for the year, so above comments about best player in college football no longer apply to projections of the season.

Donovan Edwards is not a like for like replacement but… at least it's a spot at which Michigan can take a hit to an elite player and stick in a five star on a stardom trajectory. His speed is absolutely elite and hopefully his hand issue can heal in time for the playoff.

Playing cover zero with bad defensive backs is not a good gameplan. Apparently this has to be explained.

McCarthy kept it cool. He was clearly jittery to start. Most of his bad throws and decisions happened in the third quarter. When he settled in he wasn't quite a flamethrower but he didn't make big mistakes and took advantage of his opportunities. His ability to read mesh points is probably better than my charting states because I'm assuming things that are live aren't.

The offensive line can go toe to toe with those five star types. OSU's DEs got theirs but this was not a blowout, and the main things hampering the ground game were the aggression of the opposition defense and a lack of Corum.

Cornelius Johnson turns out to be pretty fast and good at routes. Hooray!

Colston Loveland is probably already that dude. Casually scoring long TDs in the game, that sort of thing.

Move TEs are a work in progress blocking against the big boys. Loveland and Bredeson got a little beat up against the monster DEs.