Unverified Voracity Thinks It'll Happen
*grimace emoji.* Wisconsin is already down Jack Coan. Now uh
Two sources told the Journal Sentinel on Sunday that Mertz, who was brilliant in his starting debut last week, had tested positive for the coronavirus. One source said the positive test came on Saturday.
“I will not and cannot and should not comment on anything dealing with our testing and coronavirus," Chryst said. "We're following the guidelines set in place by the Big Ten."
After Chryst spoke to reporters, a source told the Journal Sentinel that redshirt sophomore Chase Wolf, who is expected to start if Mertz is not available, was not at practice Monday. According to a second source, Wolf has also tested positive for the coronavirus.
If your eyes have rolled back in your head so hard they came out the other side you are not alone. There is no reason to conceal testing results in your own program other than the usual bush league psych-out stuff college coaches engage in incessantly.
Mertz's test has been confirmed. He is out 21 days. Wolf's is likely to be confirmed shortly. That should put both out for the Michigan game. Also: Mertz presumably tested positive after the game, so he played while contagious. Both Wisconsin and Illinois may be on the verge of an outbreak.
Wisconsin has one quarterback left: redshirt junior Danny Vanden Boom. Let's find out more about him.
are you really asking because i don't know
Hmm. Not promising. Vanden Boom was barely ranked inside the top 2000 as a recruit. Also on the docket:
If UW is down to Vanden Boom as the only healthy quarterback for the Nebraska game, it is possible tailback Garrett Groshek could become a bigger factor in the offense.
Groshek, a fifth-year senior, was a dual-threat quarterback at Amherst High School but hasn't played quarterback at UW.
Pandemic football is not good but it is fascinating.
Also in injury news, Penn State RB Noah Cain is out for the season. They're already down Journey Brown and will now turn to sophomore Devyn Ford, who was a top 100 guy in 2019.
[After THE JUMP: things more unexpected than pandemic havoc]
Send Mr. Spots. Meanwhile in Ann Arbor:
Mike Sainristil says every player who didn’t travel to Minnesota was in Michigan’s facilities Saturday. “No one wants to be the guy” who causes a COVID-19 outbreak within the team.
— Zach Shaw (@_ZachShaw) October 27, 2020
Being cautious isn't a guarantee.
What happens when everything is closed. Tik Tok thrives!
Those Michigan boys got the movesss @NunezAdrien @Ayeyoomike__ @iamzebjackson1 pic.twitter.com/dP9mI7sGAl
— Blue By Ninety (@bluebyninety) October 16, 2020
Remember when Twitter bought Vine and shut it down just so someone else could make Vine happen again? No? Stop calling me gramps.
The smallest. Michigan is set to have the smallest attendance in Michigan Stadium's history this Saturday. MVictors goes looking for the previous record:
#1 vs. Wisconsin November 28, 1931 [Attendance: 9,190]
I’m sure you will hear people, including the athletic department, cite this game as the lowest on record. Just looking at the data, yes, this is the lowest official attendance at the Big House. But there’s a big BUT here. This was not a game on the original season schedule. This was a game benefiting charity (check out the QB tossing money to the needy on the ticket above) added later. Several of these games were held around the conference during this late-November week.
Michigan fans (including then-athletic director Yost) were pissed that U-M was assigned the Badgers in this special plus-one game, instead wanting/expecting a showdown against powerful Northwestern(!). So people avoided the event despite the charitable backdrop.
Chaundee Brown waiver tea leaves. His former teammate just got one:
Could seemingly set a precedent for Michigan’s Chaundee Brown, who transferred from Wake Forest.
— Zach Shaw (@_ZachShaw) October 21, 2020
The NCAA granting >90% of waiver requests would also appear to be setting a precedent ♂️ https://t.co/BuyqkfYwk6
Sarr left after Danny Manning got fired, which may have helped his case. But also: if 90% of transfers are getting waivers why bother dumping on a couple dozen kids?
Developing from down there. Tom VanHaaren looks at which teams are producing draft picks and All-X players from guys ranked outside the ESPN top 300. At the top of the list are more or less who you'd expect: programs from outside recruiting hotbeds who generally outperform their talent level. Draft picks:
And then:
Washington: 11
Ohio State: 10
Michigan: 10
North Carolina: 9
Clemson, Notre Dame, Penn State, and Oklahoma also show up on the list. Michigan does a good job of picking out guys from the lower ranks—should be mentioned that three of Michigan's 10 draftees are Glasgows. Ohio State, on top of everything else, is getting an incredible strike rate on their lower-rated guys.
Wisconsin dominates both the AA (5, next highest 3) and All-Conference who-dat rankings (14(!), next highest Big Ten team 5). The machine is the machine.
The horror. So you're just reading the Atlantic and someone drops a bomb:
[Sloan] is also versed in statistics, which comes in handy when she’s analyzing her eldest daughter’s junior-squash rating—and whiteboarding the consequences if she doesn’t step up her game. “She needs at least a 5.0 rating, or she’s going to Ohio State,” Sloane told me.
You may be chasing a pale ghost of a meritocracy that never existed and leveraging personal wealth into the propagation of our inequitable society, lady, but you're all right by me.
This seems not good. LSU self imposed some penalties because their players are—wait for it—getting money. We're all pretty blasé about this these days but holy shit someone funded LSU football by stealing from a hospital?
The father of former offensive lineman Vadal Alexander received $180,000 in stolen money from LSU booster John Paul Funes, who admitted in 2019 that he embezzled more than half a million dollars from Our Lady of the Lake Hospital in Baton Rouge. The money was payment from 2012 to 2017 for what the NCAA characterized as a “no-show job.”
Alexander is an interior OL ranked #167 on the composite. I can't imagine what a five star is getting.
Anyway, name and image rights for players would be good.
Also unexpected. We just had a TWO about things that we weren't exactly expecting but I failed to mention Kwity Paye looking like an entirely different rusher. PFF:
Paye topped my preseason list of draft prospects who needed a 2020 season the most. Blessed with elite physical tools, Paye had shown zero refinement as a pass-rusher in his first three seasons for the Wolverines. On Saturday, he looked like a different player entirely.
His 89.8 pass-rushing grade on the day was far and away a career-high, and he’d only ever had one other game over 80.0. He returned to school because he was likely a fringe first-rounder based on 2019 tape. But if we see the guy we saw against Indiana on Saturday for the rest of the season, don’t be surprised if he’s the first edge off the board in April.
Early UFR returns are in the same boat because Paye's "quiet" start to the game was a procession of OL being put in a trashcan while Minnesota gameplanned around the fact that their OL were going to get put in a trashcan. When Michigan was able to tee off on dropback passes in the second half Paye immediately started sacking Morgan.
CSB prelims out. The Michigan view:
There are 9 A-rated players with college commitments. 5 of them are committed to Michigan. #futureBlue
— Yost Built (@YostBuilt) October 27, 2020
This is in line with expectations for the guys in the A and B tiers. Duke has occasionally drawn mention as a potential first rounder but has not landed in many over the past few months. Early 2021 takes don't get down farther than maybe 50 prospects so C ratings for Luca Fantilli and Finlay Williams do qualify as new information. Not everyone in C gets drafted, but if you were thinking that Fantilli was an end-of-the-bench guy recruited mostly in an effort to entice his brother that appears to be incorrect.
Etc.: USM's interim coach left for another job so now they have an interim for the interim. Mississippi State RB Kylin Hill opts out midseason. Doc Emrick, the king of verbs, skitters off into retirement. Mike Vrabel's intentional penalty was pretty smart. The Maryland quarterback as Spinal Tap drummer. Spencer Hall writes only truth. Arizona gets hit with a hefty notice of allegations.
October 27th, 2020 at 1:55 PM ^
So, if Wisconsin finds four additional covid cases, they’d have to forfeit, is that correct? 110(.05) = 5.5
edited: removed extra zero. Iz not good at math.
October 27th, 2020 at 2:00 PM ^
No forfeits. Game just wouldn't be played. No wins or losses for either team. I think it's a good rule because forcing a forfeit would encourage dishonest testing/reporting
October 27th, 2020 at 2:01 PM ^
Ah, thanks.
October 27th, 2020 at 2:05 PM ^
That's not the way it works AFAIK. It's 5% of all positive tests per week. So 170 tests x 7 days = 1190, 5% = 60 positives (it can be the same 10 people 7 straight tests, 60 people 1 test each, etc)
October 27th, 2020 at 2:29 PM ^
Which means if they get it under control, they should all test negative by the week they play Michigan, even if they are not allowed to play due to the 21 day rule.
edit: it also sounds like a team can try to control whether or not they play... think you're going to lose because all of your QBs are out? Make sure to test the infected every day to get your count up. Still want to play because it's Rutgers (or MSU) week and it's a free win anyways? Once someone tests positive send them home and test healthy players the rest of the week.
If Michigan goes 7-0, so does OSU, Michigan could technically have a group of walk-ons get Covid, have them test positive all week, have the game cancelled, win the tiebreak (Minnesota + Wisconsin record > Illinois + Nebraska record), go to the B10 Championship, not test said walk-ons that week, and have all their starters available for the game.
October 27th, 2020 at 4:08 PM ^
Warde? Please be you.
October 27th, 2020 at 1:59 PM ^
That pic of an empty Big House makes it look far steeper than I remember...
Also, I thought the smallest crowd ever would have been one of the Coke games with Brandon/Hoke. Oy...
October 27th, 2020 at 2:26 PM ^
It is called the french perspective ... ;)
October 27th, 2020 at 2:52 PM ^
It doesn’t matter how many are in attendance on Saturday — just as long as there’s one seat for Fritz.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:04 PM ^
Well I'll say from my experience after a solid 6-12 hours of tailgating that walk seemed awfully steep and treacherous at times....
October 27th, 2020 at 2:00 PM ^
PFF thinks Kwity played Indiana last Saturday?
October 27th, 2020 at 2:28 PM ^
I'm glad it wasn't just me having a stroke there.
October 27th, 2020 at 2:57 PM ^
There's been a new breakthrough in sports broadcasting: instant scouting reports! They're out on websites before the game is played!
October 27th, 2020 at 2:00 PM ^
If Mertz's first positive test was Saturday (UW played Friday night), doesn't that mean the 21 day window would expire the day before the Michigan game? (ie it's 21 days counting the day of the first positive as one of the days).
Now, obviously, hopefully he's ok and has a quick return to health despite the fact that there's lots of variability with this disease. And they probably won't want to play him without him practicing (I'm assuming he can't return to practice until he's 21 days out), but he may be technically available, if only on an emergency basis.
October 27th, 2020 at 2:11 PM ^
If they call him eligible on Friday, before the game, I have a dollar that says he plays. He'll be working outside of practice with his WRs to keep some timing. He may be missing some conditioning, but that's still better than the 4th stringer.
October 27th, 2020 at 2:18 PM ^
Nevermind, it looks like it's 21 days after the PCR confirmation of the positive test, which would definitely put him out.
Under the conference’s coronavirus protocols, Big Ten athletes, coaches, trainers and other individuals who are on the field for all practices and games undergo daily antigen testing. Athletes who test positive through the daily testing must take a more accurate polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test to confirm the result.
Should that test also come back positive, athletes must then undergo a cardiac evaluation and be approved to return by a heart specialist designated by their school. Athletes who test positive must sit out at least 21 days after the confirmation of their positive test before they can return to game competition.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/10/26/big-ten-covid-rules-wisconsin-qb/
October 27th, 2020 at 2:56 PM ^
Can someone help with what they science based reason is for the 21 days? I feel horrible for Mertz and anyone else impacted by the policy, which seem arbitrary in the extreme, given that 10-14 days is the standard after a positive test everywhere else. There's a difference between cautious and over-cautious
October 27th, 2020 at 3:43 PM ^
I have no inside knowledge here on either immunology nor B1G policy, but the two main reasons cited on previous threads have been:
1. The extended period provides a better chance to catch / monitor / rule out myocarditis before returning to competition.
2. The long period is a deterrent to encourage compliance.
In neither case has preventing further spread been given as a reason, since as you note, based on current understanding, 10-14 days would be sufficient for that.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:47 PM ^
I agree - if he is cleared to practice after sitting 14 days then he can prepare for the Michigan game during days 15-21 and be the starter vs. Michigan ... this assumes he has no lingering heart or lung issues from the post-practice testing during days 15-21 of practice.
October 27th, 2020 at 2:08 PM ^
Vanden's got the Boom that makes me think the wrong thing
October 27th, 2020 at 2:12 PM ^
I'd like to hear the play by play announcer call the blind side sack against Danny Vanden BOOM!
October 27th, 2020 at 2:18 PM ^
There's a joke to be made about Sean Miller sweating through his shirt and NCAA violations, no doubt.
The Spencer Hall article is well done. My only nitpick (because I must, in Michigan fashion) is that we didn't steal the helmet design, we stole the coach who invented it. Nuance!
October 27th, 2020 at 2:19 PM ^
What are the implications for a team playing a 4th string QB? What would Michigan even do in that situation? Wildcat? Hassan Haskins plays QB? MIchael Barret pretends he is in NCAA Football 2012?
October 27th, 2020 at 2:35 PM ^
Barrett did have a pass to Dax last year...
October 27th, 2020 at 2:47 PM ^
A completion too !!
October 27th, 2020 at 2:51 PM ^
We have a number of two-star walk-ons who were starters at big high schools and they are basically just like UW's Vanden Boom (tho likely a bit worse), so I am sure we would do that along with a lot of wildcat.
No way Barrett plays QB -- he's way too important on D, and he also makes big special teams plays. Asking him to *also* play QB would be ridiculous.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:19 PM ^
Is this basically how we got Nick Sheridan as starter?
October 27th, 2020 at 2:22 PM ^
It's far from clear that you get COVID from playing football against COVID-infected players. At least, that's not what we're seeing in the NFL: https://www.wsj.com/articles/dinner-may-be-the-most-dangerous-part-of-sports-during-the-pandemic-11603286441
October 27th, 2020 at 3:04 PM ^
This makes some sense based on what they're seeing elsewhere. For one, games are being played outside so the circulation is good. And two, it sounds like duration of proximity is the most important thing. It takes being near someone for a while to get an "infectious dose" per most contact tracing.
Other than the OLs and DLs breathing at each other for about 10-20 seconds each play, and to a lesser extent CBs and WRs, the duration of interactions are very short between opposing players.
Even for the lines, let's say they are breathing at each other for 15 seconds each play for 80 plays a game. That's still only 20 minutes of interaction. And it's still interaction almost two yards (six feet) apart for half of that time presnap.
October 27th, 2020 at 2:25 PM ^
So, seriously, is this a fun football season so far? Everyone enjoying the Covid roulette? Games postponed, entire position groups eliminated (UW QB, Minny special teams) Who's next? Wisconsin will have a much worse record playing a 4th string QB. What happens if Michigan is next? This whole season is an exhibition. At best, a giant asterisk is next to it
October 27th, 2020 at 2:47 PM ^
So lets cancel the season and the players can catch covid intermingling with their peers in the general student population
October 27th, 2020 at 3:09 PM ^
I enjoyed Saturday nights game more than just about anything else that's happened in the past 8 months and it looked like everyone involved did too. Not to mention, it saved people's jobs, it's giving players the opportunity to develop the skills they'll use in their careers, etc.
Should we force it all to be shut down instead of a few players and games here and there? Is that better?
Is this the ideal way to college football? Absolutely not. But is it better than not college footballing? Absolutely (and not just for entertainment, for player safety it's better, etc.)
October 27th, 2020 at 3:24 PM ^
I mean, sorta? I really enjoyed the game on Saturday, too, but if someone ends up with lifelong chronic conditions or worse, dies, because college football games were played, that will definitely impact my judgement on whether or not it's better than not college footballing. So far, it's managed not to kill anyone (that we're aware of). I hope that endures.
October 27th, 2020 at 4:00 PM ^
This isn't like CTE where you can pinpoint head injuries from football as the cause. You can get infected with Covid doing anything. In fact, the evidence suggests that it's sustained contact (like 10+ minutes) with an infected person that gets you infected, not just momentary contact like in a sports game. That's a good reason not to allow spectators in the stadium (since they'll be seated for hours together) but also reason to play the games.
In the big picture, we have no evidence that college football players are more likely to get Covid than their non-football playing college peers. How many U-M students have gotten Covid, and how many play football? (And consider that football players are tested much more than regular students.)
October 27th, 2020 at 5:52 PM ^
And the fact that 80000 college students tested positive and 3 have been hospitalized. And the fact that more have died by their own hand and drinking.....
October 27th, 2020 at 4:28 PM ^
I agree with your sentiment about putting player health above all but not the seeming implication that what is being done - at least in the B1G - somehow contradicts that.
You cannot legislate safety or good health, you can only put the best procedures in place to promote it. I would posit that M football players are SAFER than the general student population both by being in a more monitored situation and by having the daily testing to prevent spread if there was a case. I am not going to do the research but it appears that case rates among B1G college Football players and the general population are consistently lower - for sure at UM.
I also believe that (current) science must show it is difficult to contract this virus through football contact and/or virtually impossible at a viral load that can slip past daily testing. This is based SOLELY on the belief that there would be a mountain of administrators and lawyers within the B1G that would have killed a season if they thought there was significant liability involved. This shows clearly in the "additional" 7 days of recovery they insisted on to check for heart issues (see: avoid future lawsuits....and it protects the kids too!).
TLDR -- There is a way to have football AND protect players and I feel the B1G is doing a pretty damn good job.
October 27th, 2020 at 2:34 PM ^
If Wisconsin's wins over Michigan count despite their brazen headhunting of Michigan players, then I cannot care less about what Badger fans think if Michigan feasts on Danny Boom.
October 27th, 2020 at 2:37 PM ^
Only Wisconsin would have a 4th string upperclassman scholarship QB. Our 3rd string is a true freshman late add because our original commit retired.
Danny Vandemboom probably isn't good, but I imagine he has to be the best 4th string QB in the league
October 27th, 2020 at 3:12 PM ^
I don't think "experience" means much when you're a 4th string QB who never sees the field...
October 27th, 2020 at 2:42 PM ^
Taking a low ranking player from a winning team, winning program, or who have great high school coaches is a recipe for the success long term. That play typically will be more coachable, have a harder work-ethic in the offseason from having that experience in high school, and will have the ability to develop themselves overtime from having that already occur in high school. I always cringe when you see Michigan offer 3-stars from 1-8, 2-7 year-over-year programs.
October 27th, 2020 at 2:44 PM ^
Do you have any proof of that assertion or is it just your instinct? I imagine it's less clear than you make it out to be. It's possible a guy on a very poor team could be passed over for exactly that reason, his team sucks, but could be a much better player than the equally ranked guy on a successful team.
October 27th, 2020 at 2:42 PM ^
I will not shed a tear after the whooping they administered upon us last year. They'll just add another OL replacing a TE and run, run, run... Does anyone remember when they ran ~16 straight times on us during the RR era? We never stopped them.
October 27th, 2020 at 2:43 PM ^
... he embezzled more than half a million dollars from Our Lady of the Lake Hospital ...
You shouldn't be eligible if a bagman threw some watery tart's money at you. (Talk about a farcical aquatic ceremony!)
October 27th, 2020 at 2:48 PM ^
That Vine, er TikTok, is amazing.
October 27th, 2020 at 2:48 PM ^
Come on Wisconsin, get your ish together, hopefully not many cases come back from Illinois and Wisconsin was able to nip it in the bud at their QB room
October 27th, 2020 at 2:59 PM ^
Yeah that my feelings as well, with all teams across all leagues (well sec is .....the sec).
These are young men, mega athletes, in college doing college things, but if I was a coach it really comes down to "either you want to keep playing or you dont. Anything else you do outside the confines of football operations and not sticking to the covid safe plan...thats on you but know you are putting yourself above the team if you decide to enter any risky covid situations."
Not saying Mertz did anything wrong, who knows how he got it we dont know any details, but in the end, if everyone wants to keep playing.....get the schooling done, get the footballing done, mask up, go home and stay home. That reality right now unfortunately.
October 27th, 2020 at 3:18 PM ^
If I were their coach I would be hammering home how lucky they are to be playing football at all. Responsible adults are staying home all the damn time right now, because the risk of spread is jus too great. And many don't have a choice and must mask up for 8 hours a day.
So yeah, it sucks that they can't do anything right now that college students normally do. But that's *everyones* reality right now. I've been working from home since March - part of me is glad I'm not forced into an office, but the other part of me is definitely longing to go out and, like, do stuff. And football players at least get to do stuff, ya know?
October 27th, 2020 at 7:58 PM ^
Wisconsin having their top two QBs test positive at the same time certainly leaves open the possibility that their coaches were careless.
We heard Michigan coaches talk about their fear of having a whole position group having to sit out and how they were changing practices and film study to avoid it.
October 27th, 2020 at 2:50 PM ^
That TikTok is Sssswweeeeetttttt
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