Essentials

Overview

Michigan begins its fascinating 2021 season against the second easiest team on the schedule, Western Michigan. There are any number of storylines to latch onto entering this game, but perhaps the most overlooked is that this game is the first at the Big House with fans since the end of November 2019. Have to think the players will be amped up to run out of the tunnel and touch the banner in front of a roaring crowd and an actual band again, having settled for a small section of cheering parents and piped in PA music last season. 

WMU finished 4-2 in 2020 on an All-MAC schedule. The program has fallen back down to earth since PJ Fleck took his boat and relocated it to Minneapolis, but they've been a firmly solid mid-major team in the Tim Lester era, typically going about .500 for the year and slightly above that clip in conference. That normally puts Western on the knife's edge of going to the 38th most important bowl game. Their two losses last season were by a combined 12 points, and they saw receiver D'Wayne Eskridge get drafted in the 2nd round to the Seattle Seahawks in the offseason. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Positional groups against other positional groups]

Run Offense vs. WMU 

Andrew Vastardis has a challenge ahead of him in Ralph Holley [Bryan Fuller]  

Michigan will look to get it going on the ground against the Broncos, something that the team has stressed both in public comments and has circulated in private rumors. Josh Gattis wants to make the rushing attack a feature of the offense, and so all eyes will be on the offense to make that happen against one of the lighter opponents on the schedule. Neither team is releasing depth charts for this game so we're going off hunches in projecting the starting lineups for this piece. 

The Broncos have a pretty strong group up front, definitely the strength of the defense. DE Ali Fayad is a legit piece, and this is his second trip to Michigan Stadium, having done it in 2018 in what was a strong showing for the edge rusher in that game. Fayad was named 2nd team All-MAC back in 2019. He's more of a pass rusher than a run defender but he is an important piece for the DL altogether. The other important piece is DT Ralph Holley, who is a dual threat as a stout run defender and a very good pass rusher from the DT position and between those two guys, WMU is boasting some real talent up front. The problem is the other positions, where there are some real questions. The second DT spot is probably Will McCabe or Braden Fiske, and neither of those two guys move the needle.

When you get to the second level, things get shaky for Western. LB Corvin Moment is a good player who can competently tackle, but they're depending on Zaire Barnes getting back from injury to try and pick up the slack that they're losing from departing All-MAC player Treshaun Heyward. If Michigan can get the RB's to the second level clean, there's a chance for some long runs. 

Michigan's starting offensive line is likely to be a game-time decision given injury rumors but it will be some combination of Trevor Keegan, Zak Zinter, Andrew Vastardis, and Chuck Filiaga inside. Several of those players struggled mightily last season, some for forgivable reasons (being a true freshman, in Zinter's case) and others less forgivable (not recognizing defensive alignments as a veteran player, Vastardis), but last season is last season and writing a new narrative begins tomorrow. We know Hassan Haskins will be able to bulldoze the opposition and get extra yards from breaking tackles, and we also know that Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards are significantly faster than any of the players WMU will be throwing out there to track them down, but it would still go a long way if the interior OL can have a crisp showing and pave holes for those backs. Blowing up a player of Holley's caliber would be extra nice, albeit unlikely. 

The one question here is to what extent we see a QB run game integrated. We don't need to rehash how broken everything related to the QB run was back in 2019 when Shea Patterson was at QB, but it was supposed to be a legitimate component to the offense. It re-appeared against Minnesota with Joe Milton in 2020 to great success but then quickly vanished thereafter. Cade McNamara played so little last season that we don't have much of a feel for how much the coaching staff will want him to run. He was not marketed as a running QB leaving HS but he also isn't marketed as a slow stiff either. Even if it's just a few plays, it could go a ways towards making Michigan's rush offense more effective. 

KEY MATCHUP: INTERIOR OL vs. RALPH HOLLEY. As stated previously, Holley is a very good player, and we saw the interior OL struggle to open holes on the ground last season. If Michigan wants to run roughshod over the Broncos, they need to take care of the most dangerous weapon in the middle. 

Pass Offense vs. WMU 

Cade will finally be throwing at the Big House with people in the stands [Bryan Fuller]

The Cade McNamara hype train rolls into the station tomorrow and we get to find out whether it's carrying a booty of gold or a cargo of dead rats, or perhaps something in between. All we have on Cade are a few 2019 spring game photos, a brief cameo in Minneapolis, a fine drive against Wisconsin after Michigan was six feet under, one daring comeback consisting of 10 drives in Piscataway, and then a couple passes before his arm fell off versus Penn State. That's it. He's attempted 71 career passes at the NCAA level. McNamara has been The Guy at QB all offseason but we don't really know what his caliber of play will be in 2021. That changes starting tomorrow. 

You have to think Michigan will take it reasonably easy, although WMU is the worst secondary on the schedule this season. Quick passes, short, comfortable routes, that sort of thing. Michigan's receivers should have no trouble getting separation, whether that's through speed of the burners like Mike Sainristil, Roman Wilson, and AJ Henning, or through slippery route runners like Ronnie Bell. Simply put, there should be plenty of guys open underneath. Getting the ball out, building up Cade's confidence, and getting the RS So QB in rhythm should be the primary objective of Josh Gattis' offense on Saturday. I do think they will pepper in some deep shots, even though arm strength is not an attribute associated with McNamara, just to see what they have with their bigger receivers in Daylen Baldwin and Cornelius Johnson. 

WMU's secondary is rough, and they checked in at #12 (aka last) on my The Enemy piece concerning the secondary earlier this week. There were a lot of troubles with this group last season and there aren't many reasons to expect improvement. Bricen Garner is a reliable safety but he's the only known quantity that inspires confidence here. AJ Thomas can't tackle and is a corner playing FS, Therran Coleman is a Pitt transfer at CB who they're giving a shot because they have to, and either Keith Jones or converted WR DaShon Bussell is starting at the other corner spot due to the devastating injury to Patrick Lupro. The secondary was the weak point of the defense last season and in no way did it get demonstrably better in the offseason. If you wanted an easy pass defense so you could leave the training wheels on McNamara in week one, WMU is just what the doctor ordered. 

The best hope Western may have to stop Michigan's passing offense (other than Michigan beating themselves) is through the pass rush. The OL play, again, wasn't great last season, and defending pass rush up the middle in particular was a struggle when stunts were thrown in. Add on the weapon that is Ali Fayad as an edge rusher, and you could see how the Broncos could cause Cade some discomfort tomorrow. Thus, the interior OL needs to be ready to pick up blitzes, and Ryan Hayes and Andrew Stueber (the likely starting tackles) need to be prepared to take care of Fayad wherever he is lined up on the line. Do that, and you give McNamara a clean pocket to pick apart what should be a porous WMU secondary. 

KEY MATCHUP: CADE MCNAMARA vs. MAKING THE OPEN THROW. This is pretty much the bulk of what you need to know for this dimension of the game. Guys are going to be open, it's just up to Cade to get them the ball and not panic if/when pressure comes. If he can do that, Michigan shouldn't have any problems moving it through the air. 

Run Defense vs. WMU 

La'Darius Jefferson is back, but in a new uniform [Bryan Fuller]

Western is trotting La'Darius Jefferson out at RB for this game, who you may remember as an ex-Spartan. Jefferson wasn't great back in those days (to be fair, no RB looked good behind the 2018-19 MSU OL, but even amongst his teammates, he was bad statistically) but he has since made the switch to the MAC and put up a good rushing clip for WMU last season. Jefferson is a hefty battering ram, not going to change direction at any point but he can break a tackle or two. When he comes out, the speedier backups come on, Sean Tyler and Jaxson Kincaide. 

The QB run game isn't much of a factor in WMU's offense, but they do have a good number of RPO's that are likely to be read to perfection by the team's brainy QB (more on that in the next section), so you can expect Western's run game decision-making to be strong. The question revolves around whether they get bullied at the LOS. The team lost an NFL draft pick at LT and are kicking ex-center Wesley French out wide, leading to a re-shuffled interior. Mike Caliendo slides over to center from LG, while Dylan Deatherage and Max Brooks are still in place on the right side of the line. It's a line that returns four of five starters, boasting plenty of experience, but the re-configuration at the two most important spots on the line (LT and C) do leave you some reason for concern if you're a Western fan. 

This needs to be a statement game for the three defensive tackles Michigan is planning on starting, Donovan Jeter, Mazi Smith, and Chris Hinton. We've reported in Football Bits that the insider buzz is not optimistic about the current state of the new 3-4 DL, although we have heard plenty of offseason hype around Jeter and Smith. Mazi in particular is an interesting player to watch in this game, as his job as a NT in Macdonald's new defense is pivotal and we've seen very little from the RS So in his career. Can he eat two blocks like the coaches are going to ask him to? And can he maintain a high level of play throughout all four quarters? Or will his stamina concerns cause him to need to come off for several series? Michigan isn't asking its DT's to get penetration anymore, they're simply asking them to not get ejected from the line. That should be doable against WMU, but it would sure be nice to see those guys manhandling a few MAC offensive linemen. 

As for the LB group, this is the debut of Nikhai Hill-Green, and hopefully the debut of a renovated Josh Ross. NHG has been showered with praise like a favorite child this offseason, and he zoomed past a more experienced option to snag a starting LB job. Ross is considered a leader of the defense who has now lost two years to injury and coaching incompetence. If the DL is doing its job, there will be lanes for both of these two LB's to meet Jefferson right at the line of scrimmage and bottle up the running game. If they aren't, then Hill-Green and Ross will be trying to pick up the mistakes and tackle guys at the second level. 

KEY MATCHUP: DEFENSIVE TACKLES vs. ONE RESPECTABLE PERFORMANCE. That's all we want. WMU has a solid (for the MAC) line, but it's nothing challenging. A perfect opportunity for the DL to calm our nerves down and deliver a good showing, eating blocks and allowing the LB's to pummel the WMU running backs, grinding the running game to a halt. Do that and Michigan comfortably beats Western and we can resist mashing the panic button another week. 

Pass Defense vs. WMU 

Skyy Moore is the biggest name to watch in the Western passing attack [Ashley Huss/WMU Athletics]

One of the big takeaways I had from doing the The Enemy series is just how poor the quality of QB play that appears on Michigan's schedule is this season. One of the exceptions is Western, which ranked 3rd on my list because of one Kaleb Eleby. Eleby was terrific in the MAC last season, 18 TD's to 2 INT's on 64.5% completion. The story of Eleby is simply that he just doesn't make mistakes, executing all the right reads during and before plays that allow the offense to go. He puts the ball where it needs to be and he minimizes errors, as opposed to being a flashy, big-play kind of guy. Michigan is going to need to make life slightly uncomfortable in order to knock Eleby out of rhythm. 

The array of weapons at Eleby's disposal is not quite what it was last season due to the loss of Eskridge to the draft, but Skyy Moore is still around and he's a fine player. He's been Eskridge's side-kick for the last couple years but now slides into that slot role and will be expected to be the top target for the Broncos. Michigan could either choose to use Gemon Green, their best true cover corner, or Dax Hill, who is sliding from safety to nickel, to cover Moore. If they want someone with more experience in these sorts of situations, they could roll with Green, who handled Rashod Bateman fine against Minnesota last season, but from a pure athleticism standpoint, Dax was specifically moved to nickel to cover guys like Moore. Why not give him his first go of things at nickel in a low-stakes matchup like WMU week one? 

Outside of Moore, Jaylen Hall is the other receiver with notable experience and he's the deep ball guy. If Dax covers Moore, then you have to think the responsibility of covering Hall falls on Green's shoulders. WR Corey Crooms is the #3 guy at that position and would probably be covered by DJ Turner II in this scenario. Crooms has very little to his name statistically in his career, but if Turner wants to prove he really is better than Vincent Gray, he better make sure to prevent another Ricky White Situation from occurring with this little known receiver. To that end, whoever Turner is covering on the field will be a matchup to watch given how little we know about him, and how crucial his play is going to be to the trajectory of Michigan's season. Brett Borske is the starting TE for Western, 6-7, 275 (!), but like Crooms, he has little experience as a receiving option, used mostly as a blocker thus far in his NCAA career. How Michigan chooses to cover the TE spot in this new defense (one of the LB's? a safety?) remains to be seen. 

Getting pressure on Eleby is another important component here. Though Wesley French has experience as a starting OL, he has little of it as a starting LT, and you have to think Mike Macdonald will be targeting him in his rush packages. Matching up Aidan Hutchinson on French would be a good way to make a statement. Week one represents the liftoff for what should be a 1st team All-B1G season for Hutchinson and if he can generate pressure by himself, it saves Michigan from having to use any exotic blitzes (of which we are told there are many) in what should be a slam dunk win. Opposite Hutchinson are quite a few unknowns but it will be a lot of fun to see what David Ojabo can do after the hype has been building. A sack or two from the Scottish edge rusher would represent a healthy deposit of coal into the boiler of the Ojabo hype train. Watch for Taylor Upshaw and Mike Morris as well from the edge position. 

This phase of the game presents the Wolverines with a real opportunity to reset the narrative surrounding the secondary in this new season. Last year was astonishingly bad, yes, but Don Brown has followed in Rich Rod's footsteps and has been shipped off to Arizona, far away from being able to hurt the program anymore. This is a new defense, with new contributors (Turner, RJ Moten) and new positions (Viper gone, Dax at nickel). Yes, WMU is not a great team, but they have a pretty good QB and a real weapon in Skyy Moore, with a not atrocious OL. It provides just enough challenge while still being a should-be easy win. A calm, confident performance from the secondary would be desirable here. 

KEY MATCHUP: SKYY MOORE vs. WHOEVER IS COVERING SKYY MOORE. I spent several sentences hashing out the options so I don't need to go through that again, but Skyy Moore is the biggest weapon for Western to hurt the Wolverines. Take him away, put a little pressure on Eleby, and the rout should be on.  

SPECIAL TEAMS

We got a bit of WMU special teams buzz this week (!), as Parker Sampson won the kicking job over two kickers with starting experience. Sampson's a transfer from Northwest Missouri State who sat out 2020. He was nearly automatic on PAT's in his career there and went 13/14 on FG's in 2019, the last season he attempted a competitive field goal. That sounds good. He's also a college kicker. Nick Mihalic is a three year starter at punter and is fine. 

Michigan boasts a veteran specialists group, with Jake Moody handling kicks and Brad Robbins handling punts. They should be competent. It sounds like Ronnie Bell will get the first stab handling punt returns (and perhaps kick returns). 

KEY MATCHUP: AHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS 

INTANGIBLES 

CHEAP THRILLS 

Worry if... 

• Kaleb Eleby is untouched and consistently has time to make the perfect decision
• Michigan's interior OL struggles to pick up blitzes again 
• The DT's are getting blown up by a MAC team 

Cackle with glee if...

• Monster Aidan Hutchinson is finally unleashed to the viewing public 
• Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum are given a clean hole at any point 
• Cade McNamara looks comfortable in the pocket and is making sound reads  

Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 (Baseline: 5; +1 for *gestures at memories of App State*, -2 for This is still simply a decent MAC team, +2 for But do you remember last season?, -1 for Well we have a safeties coach this year, +2 for they have a really good QB, -2 for But did you look at their secondary?) 

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; -1 for Does Anything Really Matter In College Football Anymore(?) It's Just Going To Be The Same Four Teams In The Playoff Again, +1 for Yes College Football is Still Fun, +5 for it's a MAC team week one) 

Loss will cause me to ... google "Jim Harbaugh buyout" so many times Google starts to think I'm a bot

Win will cause me to ... remember what it's like to win in front of a Big House crowd 

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Everyone is anticipating this game, waiting to see what hope looks like again, and waiting to take in the sights and sounds of real Michigan Football for the first time in two years. It should be a pretty cool atmosphere and again, I think the players are going to ride that wave a little bit. WMU is an interesting team because they boast players at positions that could test some iffy parts of Michigan's team (secondary, OL), but overall this does not appear to be a major threat. The Maize & Blue are more talented at every position and should be able to ride their skill position guys on offense and take advantage of the weak secondary to make life easy on Cade. 

Defensively, the simply mediocre Western OL should nerf some of Michigan's DL weakness and I think they won't have a ton of problems getting some pass rush home. There is a chance Skyy Moore goes off a la James Proche and SMU in 2018, but the team moved Dax Hill to nickel to ensure that Brandon Watson wouldn't be covering a Proche type anymore. But much the way the Proche game was never seriously in doubt, this one shouldn't be either. If Michigan somehow loses, you might as well forget about a bowl game because this is the 2nd easiest game on the schedule. 

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow: 

• Cade McNamara passes for over 70% completion and 2 TD's 
• Nikhai Hill-Green leads Michigan in tackles 
• Michigan, 37-15