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Preview: Michigan State

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By Tim — March 4th, 2011 at 1:54 PM — 126 comments
Filed under:
  • basketball
  • bubble watch
  • game previews
  • michigan state

msulogo.jpg

The Essentials

WHAT Michigan v. Michigan State
WHERE Crisler Arena (Maize Out)
WHEN 2:00 PM EST
March 5th, 2011
THE LINE Michigan -2.5
TELEVISION CBS (Coverage Map)

This is The Most Important Game Of The Season. No qualifiers necessary. Michigan could be 1-29 - still with a win in Breslin, of course - and this would be The Most Important Game Of The Season still. The fact that tomorrow's winner is likely to make the NCAA Tournament while the loser is likely NIT-bound barring a strong run in Indianapolis... well, I don't have to explain the stakes to you.

I've started this post a hundred times, and frantically erased a couple paragraphs that just didn't seem adequate for the situation. I'm no college basketball fanatic, but this game just feels... bigger. I'm struck with writer's block at the enormity of the moment, much like Brian must have when he started writing Eleven Swans. Nothing I can come up with will seem right.

Beat the Spartans. Sweep the Spartans.

Tempo-Free Breakdown

If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.

Michigan v. Michigan State: National Ranks
Category Michigan Rank State Rank Advantage
Mich eFG% v. MSU Def eFG% 47 122 M
Mich Def eFG% v. MSU eFG% 170 161 -
Mich TO% v. MSU Def TO% 16 255 MMM
Mich Def TO% v. MSU TO% 253 194 S
Mich OReb% v. MSU DReb% 324 62 SSS
Mich DReb% v. MSU OReb% 54 69 M
Mich FTR v. MSU Opp FTR 342 144 SS
Mich Opp FTR v. MSU FTR 35 213 MM
Mich AdjO v. MSU AdjD 54 37 S
Mich AdjD v. MSU AdjO 54 71 M

Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.

This is a pretty even statistical matchup (and was probably tilted in Michigan's favor prior to the Spartans' beatdown of Iowa). You know the characters: Kalin Lucas is putting the team on his back, Durrell Summers is a huge disappointment, Korie Lucious will next hit the court for Iowa State, not MSU.

On the other side of the court, Michigan has been steadily improving since the victory in the Breslin Center, particularly on defense. Tim Hardaway has emerged into a star. Darius Morris is (ugh) the Butterfly. Jordan Morgan is holding his own in the post as a redshirt freshman.

With both teams' post-season hopes hanging in the balance, this should be one of the games of the year. And CBS thinks most of the country would rather see a routine beatdown of a terrible Oregon team! CBS is the anti-Sheen #notwinning.

Elsewhere

Game preview from The Only Colors, and they also break down Big Ten defensive efficiency by each of the Four Factors. David Merritt talks shop with UMHoops. Friday links from UMHoops, including a couple other game previews. UPDATE: Dylan's preview is up.

Bonus Bracketology Rootin'

Since there's a meager slate of games tonight, no dedicated post. You want Harvard to win and Princeton to lose in the Ivy League, so the Crimson can make the Tournament (and stay in the RPI top-50). Both games are at 7.

In the Horizon League, you probably want to cheer against Cleveland State to make the field a little easier for Butler. They'll likely get an at-large, so you don't want the league's auto-bid to go to anyone else.

There are tons of relevant games tomorrow, so look for an early-morning bracketology post.

Predictions

With both teams' tournament lives on the line, I have to sadly side with Tom Izzo, who guaranteed a win Wednesday night (H/T iSportsWeb):

Don't get me wrong, John Beilein is one hell of a coach. But Tom Izzo isn't shabby himself, and he's been doing this a long time at Michigan State. He knows what it takes to get a win, and the NCAA Tournament is the norm in East Lansing. Nothing else is acceptable, and the players and coaches in green all know that.

Durrell Summers will break out of his offensive slump and Kalin Lucas will out-duel Darius Morris at the point guard spot. However, Tim Hardaway and some clutch shooting from the two juniors will keep this a tossup until the very end. Spartans win, 65-64.

Go Blue. Beat. State.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:04 PM
#2
Cosmic Blue
Cosmic Blue's picture
Joined: 10/13/2008
MGoPoints: 488
boo your predicition....

 ur allowed unabashed homerism in this situation

also this needs a fix: "This is a pretty even statistical matchup (and was probably tilted in Michigan's favor prior to the Spartans' beatdown of Michigan State)"

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:15 PM
(Reply to #2) #3
GoBlueInNYC
GoBlueInNYC's picture
Joined: 03/23/2010
MGoPoints: 9526
No doubt! He's predicting a

No doubt! He's predicting a one-point toss-up, going to the Spartans?!

Maybe it's just one of those "must protect myself from getting my hopes up, lest they be dashed upon so many cruel stones of fate" things.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:23 PM
(Reply to #7) #4
JMK
JMK's picture
Joined: 10/08/2009
MGoPoints: 1471
I call this "being a Michigan

I call this "being a Michigan fan."

"Maybe it's just one of those 'must protect myself from getting my hopes up, lest they be dashed upon so many cruel stones of fate' things."

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March 4th, 2011 at 3:42 PM
(Reply to #26) #5
joeyb
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Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 14048
Because when you predict that

Because when you predict that we win a toss up, Wisconsin happens.

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March 4th, 2011 at 4:09 PM
(Reply to #50) #6
GoBlueInNYC
GoBlueInNYC's picture
Joined: 03/23/2010
MGoPoints: 9526
Ow, man. Ow...

Ow, man. Ow...

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March 4th, 2011 at 4:49 PM
(Reply to #50) #7
kvnryn
kvnryn's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1064
Actually, I think Tim

Actually, I think Tim predicted Wisconsin would win that game by like 3 or something...

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:30 PM
(Reply to #2) #8
Everyone Murders
Everyone Murders's picture
Joined: 12/14/2010
MGoPoints: 64815
Spartans' Beatdown of Michigan State

In that parenthetical I thought he was referencing the MSU football players' beatdown of (A) an MSU hockey player looking the other way, (B) some MSU co-ed at a frat pot luck, or (C) both.  IMO, it's fine as it stands.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:31 PM
(Reply to #3) #9
oriental andrew
oriental andrew's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 19794
oh please

it's OBVIOUSLY reverse psychology...  

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:44 PM
(Reply to #23) #10
BK-bloo
BK-bloo's picture
Joined: 01/07/2009
MGoPoints: 892
i'm choosing to go with this.

though it wouldn't seem necessary given what's at stake in this game.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:40 PM
(Reply to #24) #11
OMG Shirtless
OMG Shirtless's picture
Joined: 08/16/2009
MGoPoints: 1726
Did you see his last two

Did you see his last two predictions?  Brian also posts predictions, which often favor the opponent.  If it really bothers you so much, you can just ignore the prediction paragraph.  It's just one dude's prediction of the game.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:41 PM
(Reply to #24) #12
MGoBender
Joined: 03/26/2010
MGoPoints: 14922
You realized Tim predicted M

You realized Tim predicted M to beat Minnesota in the barn 69-62 and the score ended up being 70-63, right?

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March 5th, 2011 at 8:17 AM
(Reply to #32) #13
Bluestreak
Bluestreak's picture
Joined: 09/26/2010
MGoPoints: 1955
1 point swing

Swing man, Swing

 

I hope we get a banked 3 pt buzzer beater to fall and win

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March 5th, 2011 at 8:03 AM
(Reply to #56) #14
GunnersApe
GunnersApe's picture
Joined: 11/19/2009
MGoPoints: 6663
CBS!!!

You just made the list with that coverage map bub. Why the hell are they showing PAC 10 games on the east coast. 

 

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March 5th, 2011 at 1:13 AM
(Reply to #3) #15
bleedzblue
bleedzblue's picture
Joined: 09/03/2009
MGoPoints: 1385
Weak sauce

Weak sauce prediction is what that was.

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March 5th, 2011 at 12:27 PM
(Reply to #3) #16
WestSider
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Joined: 02/04/2011
MGoPoints: 5717
thanks

you took my thoughts and symbolized them with five simple and accurate words.

Go Blue

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:09 PM
#17
Z
Z's picture
Joined: 01/18/2010
MGoPoints: 1014
You picked the Spartans, 'The

You picked the Spartans, 'The Only Colors' picked the Wolverines, and my dog gave me a dead mouse and purred as she nuzzled my leg.  This must be the verge of the apocalypse.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:13 PM
(Reply to #4) #18
GoBlueInNYC
GoBlueInNYC's picture
Joined: 03/23/2010
MGoPoints: 9526
Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!

The outcome of this game will truly bring about the apocalypse. Here's hoping it's an East Lansing apocalypse, and not an Ann Arbor one.

 

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March 4th, 2011 at 3:55 PM
(Reply to #4) #19
joeyb
joeyb's picture
Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 14048
This is the point in the

This is the point in the season where your team has been underperforming so you undervalue them even further. It's also the point where your team has been overperforming and you are very cautious not to overvalue them.

I think it'll go down like all of our games have recently. We get a big lead with about 5 minutes left in both halves and we let them back in, but not quite close enough for the win. The teams we have lost to recently are the ones with players that can make plays in the last 2 minutes. I'm not sure that I've seen that from MSU, even recently.

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March 4th, 2011 at 4:30 PM
(Reply to #53) #20
msoccer10
Joined: 08/29/2008
MGoPoints: 1754
uh

"...ones with players that can make plays in the last 2 minutes."

Kalin Lucas fits that description I think.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:14 PM
#21
betheballdanny
betheballdanny's picture
Joined: 10/01/2010
MGoPoints: 116
Was that Izzo's guarantee?

It seemed pretty weak.  Regardless, I hope State fans are asking for their money back around 4pm tomorrow.

Go Blue.

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March 4th, 2011 at 5:13 PM
(Reply to #6) #22
Tim
Joined: 07/08/2008
MGoPoints: 12887
At the 2:20 mark, he says "We

At the 2:20 mark, he says "We are going to go down there and win Saturday."

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:15 PM
#23
Bryan
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Joined: 07/10/2009
MGoPoints: 13410
65-64, Really?!?

This prediction is a wanna be dong punch. 

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:19 PM
#24
brandanomano
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Joined: 09/05/2009
MGoPoints: 5086
Let's beat the piss out of

Let's beat the piss out of them

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:19 PM
#25
Broken Brilliance
Broken Brilliance's picture
Joined: 09/07/2010
MGoPoints: 4101
I has a sad

after reading your prediction

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:20 PM
#26
ish
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 13990
does anyone know where i can

does anyone know where i can find a cbs coverage map to see if am getting our game or stupid oregon game?

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:23 PM
(Reply to #12) #27
OMG Shirtless
OMG Shirtless's picture
Joined: 08/16/2009
MGoPoints: 1726
There's a good chance you're fucked.

http://the506.com/sports/?p=1975

However, CBS does have live streaming.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:25 PM
(Reply to #14) #28
ish
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 13990
live streaming is not an

live streaming is not an acceptable substitute.  i'm going to cbs now to bash some heads.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:27 PM
(Reply to #18) #29
OMG Shirtless
OMG Shirtless's picture
Joined: 08/16/2009
MGoPoints: 1726
Please videotape the carnage

Please videotape the carnage and put the footage on YouTube.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:21 PM
#30
swdude12
swdude12's picture
Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 1548
Tim needs to follow Chuck

Tim needs to follow Chuck Sheens line...WINNING!

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:26 PM
(Reply to #13) #31
JMK
JMK's picture
Joined: 10/08/2009
MGoPoints: 1471
Bi-Winner

Yes!  Then Michigan will be a bi-winner:  we win here, we win there.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:52 PM
(Reply to #19) #32
Bryan
Bryan's picture
Joined: 07/10/2009
MGoPoints: 13410
We won there

now time to win here.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:23 PM
#33
Hachgoblue
Joined: 02/25/2009
MGoPoints: 103
Brian

I hope Brian writes the game recap when we win.

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March 4th, 2011 at 3:44 PM
(Reply to #16) #34
PhillyBlue09
Joined: 08/25/2010
MGoPoints: 26
Where has Brian been?

I'm going through withdrawl...

These "who to cheer for" guides are great and all, but really, they won't matter one bit if we lose.

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March 4th, 2011 at 5:31 PM
(Reply to #51) #35
M-Wolverine
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Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 42199
He's out of town

At least according to WTKA yesterday. Is odd there's no note of vacation. I hope it's not sudden bad news. Hopefully he's getting away from the grind and refreshing his batteries after 3 tough years, and nothing sad has happened.

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March 4th, 2011 at 6:25 PM
(Reply to #70) #36
colin
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Joined: 07/01/2008
MGoPoints: 1467
twitter

said something about a half vacation that he thought he'd have internet access on.  turns out not so much.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:24 PM
#37
bryemye
Joined: 09/14/2009
MGoPoints: 2689
Jinx! Jinx! Jinx! Jinx! Jinx!

Jinx! Jinx! Jinx! Jinx! Jinx! Jinx! Jinx! Jinx!

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:30 PM
#38
Md23Rewls
Md23Rewls's picture
Joined: 07/01/2008
MGoPoints: 872
Prediction

Michigan 412, Spartans zip. It will be a moral victory for State though, as Hardaway will be held under 200 points.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:35 PM
(Reply to #22) #39
JeepinBen
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Joined: 01/22/2010
MGoPoints: 25475
Mini Bears 84, Jets 0

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:33 PM
#40
BornInAA
BornInAA's picture
Joined: 11/21/2009
MGoPoints: 12362
Yes I think CBS

is pretty much anti-Sheen (since they fired him)

but Michigan is anti-Sparty.

I believe Sparty is going to choke on the pressure....they are expected to win.

Maybe like the Magic vs Heat game last night.

 

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:35 PM
#41
Wolverine96
Wolverine96's picture
Joined: 08/28/2008
MGoPoints: 1627
#Winning

I fully expect to see Muppets, Muppets and more Muppets posted on this site by 4:30pm.  I want to see and hear those fuckers in my sleep!

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March 4th, 2011 at 3:15 PM
(Reply to #28) #42
Token_sparty
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Joined: 07/20/2009
MGoPoints: 239
Sorry

You can check one of the other game recaps then.

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March 5th, 2011 at 5:48 PM
(Reply to #39) #43
Logan88
Joined: 01/05/2009
MGoPoints: 4643
You were saying?

nfm

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:35 PM
#44
AeonBlue
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Joined: 08/03/2010
MGoPoints: 1367
Lunardi has us on the bubble

Lunardi has us on the bubble competing with BC for a twelve seen with MSU "in" at the moment. Other than obviously a Michigan win, we REALLY need to be rooting for BC to lose to wake on sunday.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:36 PM
#45
Kvothe
Kvothe's picture
Joined: 02/17/2009
MGoPoints: 748
I wish I could

neg your post for that prediction

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:46 PM
#46
cp4three2
Joined: 08/03/2009
MGoPoints: 3643
It's time

All season we've talked about how young our team is.  Tomorrow is the time that we go from a team of boys to a team of men.

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March 4th, 2011 at 2:51 PM
#47
stmccoy
stmccoy's picture
Joined: 10/07/2009
MGoPoints: 1828
I don't care what network

I don't care what network carries this game other than the fact that Gus Johnson should ALWAYS call games like this.  Other than that who cares.  As long as the kids come out firing.  Go Blue. 

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March 4th, 2011 at 3:01 PM
#48
BlueDragon
BlueDragon's picture
Joined: 11/14/2010
MGoPoints: 21718
Prediction

M covers the spread, 71-67.  BlueDragon it.

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March 4th, 2011 at 3:14 PM
#49
Token_sparty
Token_sparty's picture
Joined: 07/20/2009
MGoPoints: 239
The only thing that worries me about this game...

... is Draymond Green's ankle.  He'll play, but who knows for how long?  By the way, I'll still predict an MSU win, but not as much as if Dancing Bear were 100%.  69-60.  Could be a 20-point blowout if Green can play most of the game.

I will be back here to eat my crow if MSU loses, but I'm highly amused by some of the, er, enthusiasm you Wolverine-lets show.  It's so cute!  

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March 4th, 2011 at 3:22 PM
(Reply to #38) #50
BlueDragon
BlueDragon's picture
Joined: 11/14/2010
MGoPoints: 21718
Hey, at least our mascot

Hey, at least our mascot hasn't been extinct for millennia.  Last I checked, Sparta was a pile of rubble in Greece.  That's a long, long way from Crisler Arena.  I hope you brought some friends.

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March 4th, 2011 at 7:16 PM
(Reply to #42) #51
buckeyejonross
buckeyejonross's picture
Joined: 07/27/2010
MGoPoints: 11395
Mascot throwdown! My mascot's

Mascot throwdown! My mascot's a tree, but a regal one, with nuts. I win.

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