ur allowed unabashed homerism in this situation
also this needs a fix: "This is a pretty even statistical matchup (and was probably tilted in Michigan's favor prior to the Spartans' beatdown of Michigan State)"
Mike Lantry, 1972
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Preview: Michigan State
Filed under:
The Essentials
| WHAT | Michigan v. Michigan State |
|---|---|
| WHERE | Crisler Arena (Maize Out) |
| WHEN |
2:00 PM EST March 5th, 2011 |
| THE LINE | Michigan -2.5 |
| TELEVISION | CBS (Coverage Map) |
This is The Most Important Game Of The Season. No qualifiers necessary. Michigan could be 1-29 - still with a win in Breslin, of course - and this would be The Most Important Game Of The Season still. The fact that tomorrow's winner is likely to make the NCAA Tournament while the loser is likely NIT-bound barring a strong run in Indianapolis... well, I don't have to explain the stakes to you.
I've started this post a hundred times, and frantically erased a couple paragraphs that just didn't seem adequate for the situation. I'm no college basketball fanatic, but this game just feels... bigger. I'm struck with writer's block at the enormity of the moment, much like Brian must have when he started writing Eleven Swans. Nothing I can come up with will seem right.
Beat the Spartans. Sweep the Spartans.
Tempo-Free Breakdown
If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.
| Michigan v. Michigan State: National Ranks | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Category | Michigan Rank | State Rank | Advantage |
| Mich eFG% v. MSU Def eFG% | 47 | 122 | M |
| Mich Def eFG% v. MSU eFG% | 170 | 161 | - |
| Mich TO% v. MSU Def TO% | 16 | 255 | MMM |
| Mich Def TO% v. MSU TO% | 253 | 194 | S |
| Mich OReb% v. MSU DReb% | 324 | 62 | SSS |
| Mich DReb% v. MSU OReb% | 54 | 69 | M |
| Mich FTR v. MSU Opp FTR | 342 | 144 | SS |
| Mich Opp FTR v. MSU FTR | 35 | 213 | MM |
| Mich AdjO v. MSU AdjD | 54 | 37 | S |
| Mich AdjD v. MSU AdjO | 54 | 71 | M |
Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.
This is a pretty even statistical matchup (and was probably tilted in Michigan's favor prior to the Spartans' beatdown of Iowa). You know the characters: Kalin Lucas is putting the team on his back, Durrell Summers is a huge disappointment, Korie Lucious will next hit the court for Iowa State, not MSU.
On the other side of the court, Michigan has been steadily improving since the victory in the Breslin Center, particularly on defense. Tim Hardaway has emerged into a star. Darius Morris is (ugh) the Butterfly. Jordan Morgan is holding his own in the post as a redshirt freshman.
With both teams' post-season hopes hanging in the balance, this should be one of the games of the year. And CBS thinks most of the country would rather see a routine beatdown of a terrible Oregon team! CBS is the anti-Sheen #notwinning.
Elsewhere
Game preview from The Only Colors, and they also break down Big Ten defensive efficiency by each of the Four Factors. David Merritt talks shop with UMHoops. Friday links from UMHoops, including a couple other game previews. UPDATE: Dylan's preview is up.
Bonus Bracketology Rootin'
Since there's a meager slate of games tonight, no dedicated post. You want Harvard to win and Princeton to lose in the Ivy League, so the Crimson can make the Tournament (and stay in the RPI top-50). Both games are at 7.
In the Horizon League, you probably want to cheer against Cleveland State to make the field a little easier for Butler. They'll likely get an at-large, so you don't want the league's auto-bid to go to anyone else.
There are tons of relevant games tomorrow, so look for an early-morning bracketology post.
Predictions
With both teams' tournament lives on the line, I have to sadly side with Tom Izzo, who guaranteed a win Wednesday night (H/T iSportsWeb):
Don't get me wrong, John Beilein is one hell of a coach. But Tom Izzo isn't shabby himself, and he's been doing this a long time at Michigan State. He knows what it takes to get a win, and the NCAA Tournament is the norm in East Lansing. Nothing else is acceptable, and the players and coaches in green all know that.
Durrell Summers will break out of his offensive slump and Kalin Lucas will out-duel Darius Morris at the point guard spot. However, Tim Hardaway and some clutch shooting from the two juniors will keep this a tossup until the very end. Spartans win, 65-64.
Go Blue. Beat. State.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:04 PM
#2
boo your predicition....
March 4th, 2011 at 1:15 PM
#3
No doubt! He's predicting a
No doubt! He's predicting a one-point toss-up, going to the Spartans?!
Maybe it's just one of those "must protect myself from getting my hopes up, lest they be dashed upon so many cruel stones of fate" things.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:23 PM
#4
I call this "being a Michigan
I call this "being a Michigan fan."
"Maybe it's just one of those 'must protect myself from getting my hopes up, lest they be dashed upon so many cruel stones of fate' things."
March 4th, 2011 at 2:42 PM
#5
Because when you predict that
Because when you predict that we win a toss up, Wisconsin happens.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:30 PM
#8
Spartans' Beatdown of Michigan State
In that parenthetical I thought he was referencing the MSU football players' beatdown of (A) an MSU hockey player looking the other way, (B) some MSU co-ed at a frat pot luck, or (C) both. IMO, it's fine as it stands.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:05 PM
#9
What a shitty ass prediction.
What a shitty ass prediction.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:31 PM
#10
oh please
it's OBVIOUSLY reverse psychology...
March 4th, 2011 at 1:44 PM
#11
i'm choosing to go with this.
though it wouldn't seem necessary given what's at stake in this game.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:40 PM
#12
Did you see his last two
Did you see his last two predictions? Brian also posts predictions, which often favor the opponent. If it really bothers you so much, you can just ignore the prediction paragraph. It's just one dude's prediction of the game.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:41 PM
#13
You realized Tim predicted M
You realized Tim predicted M to beat Minnesota in the barn 69-62 and the score ended up being 70-63, right?
March 5th, 2011 at 7:17 AM
#14
1 point swing
Swing man, Swing
I hope we get a banked 3 pt buzzer beater to fall and win
March 4th, 2011 at 2:17 PM
#15
Does anyone have a CBS
Does anyone have a CBS coverage map for the game? The gane is being shown locally in KC but could not find a national map.
March 4th, 2011 at 3:07 PM
#16
http://the506.com/sports/
March 5th, 2011 at 7:03 AM
#17
CBS!!!
You just made the list with that coverage map bub. Why the hell are they showing PAC 10 games on the east coast.
March 5th, 2011 at 12:13 AM
#18
Weak sauce
Weak sauce prediction is what that was.
March 5th, 2011 at 11:27 AM
#19
thanks
you took my thoughts and symbolized them with five simple and accurate words.
Go Blue
March 4th, 2011 at 1:09 PM
#20
You picked the Spartans, 'The
You picked the Spartans, 'The Only Colors' picked the Wolverines, and my dog gave me a dead mouse and purred as she nuzzled my leg. This must be the verge of the apocalypse.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:13 PM
#21
Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!
The outcome of this game will truly bring about the apocalypse. Here's hoping it's an East Lansing apocalypse, and not an Ann Arbor one.
March 4th, 2011 at 2:55 PM
#22
This is the point in the
This is the point in the season where your team has been underperforming so you undervalue them even further. It's also the point where your team has been overperforming and you are very cautious not to overvalue them.
I think it'll go down like all of our games have recently. We get a big lead with about 5 minutes left in both halves and we let them back in, but not quite close enough for the win. The teams we have lost to recently are the ones with players that can make plays in the last 2 minutes. I'm not sure that I've seen that from MSU, even recently.
March 4th, 2011 at 3:30 PM
#23
uh
"...ones with players that can make plays in the last 2 minutes."
Kalin Lucas fits that description I think.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:14 PM
#24
Was that Izzo's guarantee?
It seemed pretty weak. Regardless, I hope State fans are asking for their money back around 4pm tomorrow.
Go Blue.
March 4th, 2011 at 4:13 PM
#25
At the 2:20 mark, he says "We
At the 2:20 mark, he says "We are going to go down there and win Saturday."
March 4th, 2011 at 1:15 PM
#26
65-64, Really?!?
This prediction is a wanna be dong punch.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:19 PM
#27
Let's beat the piss out of
Let's beat the piss out of them
March 4th, 2011 at 1:19 PM
#28
I has a sad
after reading your prediction
March 4th, 2011 at 1:20 PM
#29
does anyone know where i can
does anyone know where i can find a cbs coverage map to see if am getting our game or stupid oregon game?
March 4th, 2011 at 1:23 PM
#30
There's a good chance you're fucked.
http://the506.com/sports/?p=1975
However, CBS does have live streaming.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:21 PM
#33
Tim needs to follow Chuck
Tim needs to follow Chuck Sheens line...WINNING!
March 4th, 2011 at 1:26 PM
#34
Bi-Winner
Yes! Then Michigan will be a bi-winner: we win here, we win there.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:52 PM
#35
We won there
now time to win here.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:23 PM
#36
Brian
I hope Brian writes the game recap when we win.
March 4th, 2011 at 2:44 PM
#37
Where has Brian been?
I'm going through withdrawl...
These "who to cheer for" guides are great and all, but really, they won't matter one bit if we lose.
March 4th, 2011 at 4:31 PM
#38
He's out of town
At least according to WTKA yesterday. Is odd there's no note of vacation. I hope it's not sudden bad news. Hopefully he's getting away from the grind and refreshing his batteries after 3 tough years, and nothing sad has happened.
March 4th, 2011 at 5:25 PM
#39
twitter
said something about a half vacation that he thought he'd have internet access on. turns out not so much.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:24 PM
#40
Jinx! Jinx! Jinx! Jinx! Jinx!
Jinx! Jinx! Jinx! Jinx! Jinx! Jinx! Jinx! Jinx!
March 4th, 2011 at 1:30 PM
#41
Prediction
Michigan 412, Spartans zip. It will be a moral victory for State though, as Hardaway will be held under 200 points.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:35 PM
#42
Mini Bears 84, Jets 0
March 4th, 2011 at 1:33 PM
#43
Yes I think CBS
is pretty much anti-Sheen (since they fired him)
but Michigan is anti-Sparty.
I believe Sparty is going to choke on the pressure....they are expected to win.
Maybe like the Magic vs Heat game last night.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:35 PM
#44
#Winning
I fully expect to see Muppets, Muppets and more Muppets posted on this site by 4:30pm. I want to see and hear those fuckers in my sleep!
March 4th, 2011 at 2:15 PM
#45
Sorry
You can check one of the other game recaps then.
March 5th, 2011 at 4:48 PM
#46
You were saying?
nfm
March 4th, 2011 at 1:35 PM
#47
Lunardi has us on the bubble
Lunardi has us on the bubble competing with BC for a twelve seen with MSU "in" at the moment. Other than obviously a Michigan win, we REALLY need to be rooting for BC to lose to wake on sunday.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:36 PM
#48
I wish I could
neg your post for that prediction
March 4th, 2011 at 1:46 PM
#49
It's time
All season we've talked about how young our team is. Tomorrow is the time that we go from a team of boys to a team of men.
March 4th, 2011 at 1:51 PM
#50
I don't care what network
I don't care what network carries this game other than the fact that Gus Johnson should ALWAYS call games like this. Other than that who cares. As long as the kids come out firing. Go Blue.
March 4th, 2011 at 2:01 PM
#51
Prediction
M covers the spread, 71-67. BlueDragon it.
