Preview 2015: Heuristics And Stupid Prediction
Previously: Podcast 7.0. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End And Friends. Offensive Line. Defensive Tackle. Defensive End. Linebacker.Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A: Offense.
Heuristicland
Turnover Margin
![NotreDame-Rees-fumble-vs.-Michigan[1]](https://mgoblog.com/sites/mgoblog.com/files/images/de853443c7e3_B3D4/NotreDame-Rees-fumble-vs.-Michigan1.jpg "NotreDame-Rees-fumble-vs.-Michigan[1]")
The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.
| Year | Margin | Int + | Fumb + | Sacks + | Int - | Fumb - | Sacks - |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 0.15 (41st) | 14 | 15 | 2.46(33rd) | 14 | 13 | 2.17 (67th) |
| 2008 | -.83 (104th) | 9 | 11 | 2.42(33rd) | 12 | 18 | 1.83 (57th) |
| 2009 | -1.00 (115th) | 11 | 5 | 1.83(68th) | 15 | 13 | 2.33 (83rd) |
| 2010 | -0.77(109th) | 12 | 7 | 1.38(98th) | 15 | 14 | 0.85(10th) |
| 2011 | +0.54 (25th) | 9 | 20 | 2.31 (29th) | 16 | 6 | 1.38 (33rd) |
| 2012 | -0.69 (99th) | 7 | 11 | 1.69 (69th) | 19 | 8 | 1.38 (28th) |
| 2013 | +0.38(33rd) | 17 | 9 | 1.9 (64th) | 13 | 8 | 2.77 (109th) |
| 2014 | -1.33 (124th) | 5 | 5 | 2.4 (49th) | 18 | 8 | 2.2 (63rd) |
I'd say there's nowhere to go but up here, but I said that during the Rodriguez era and it never happened. /kicks dirt
But… seriously, this should be a place Michigan gets a ton better. Not only are they replacing Devin Gardner with a guy who had an interception rate a quarter of Gardner's, they had a turnover acquisition rate anomalously low for anybody, let alone a good defense. With a fifth-year senior quarterback this should at least be even and if opponents don't have option of throwing at the wide open guy on most snaps, both sacks and bad idea throws should increase.
Or, you know, they might not. Turnovers are low-incident, high-impact events and sometimes the don't make any sense.
Position Switch Starters
![Jibreel Black Ohio State v Michigan 8THB4vo8SwAl[1]](https://mgoblog.com/sites/mgoblog.com/files/images/de853443c7e3_B3D4/JibreelBlackOhioStatevMichigan8THB4vo8SwAl1.jpg "Jibreel Black Ohio State v Michigan 8THB4vo8SwAl[1]")
Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball. Michigan flipping Prescott Burgess from SLB to WLB or PSU moving Dan Connor inside don't register here: we're talking major moves that indicate a serious lack somewhere.
The dossier:
Braden and Magnuson flip spots. A logical decision given Magnuson's left tackle frame and Braden's issues in pass protection. Braden is an awkward fit as a guard. Concern: moderate.
Poggi and Winovich move to TE. Poggi probably belonged there from the start. Winovich is odd. Speaks to concern about depth at TE. Concern: moderate.
Jeremy Clark moves to CB, Wayne Lyons to safety. Only possible interpretation is that Lyons is bad and they're scrambling a bit at the other corner. Concern: high.
Freddy Canteen moves to CB, sort of. Weird move, also speaks to concern at corner. Concern: high.
Willie Henry to SDE. The positions are similar, Wormley is a capable 3tech, seems to be looking for some extra pass rush. Concern: minimal.
Royce Jenkins-Stone to WDE. With Ojemudia and possibly/probably Lawrence Marshall in front RJS only plays if he's going to do okay. Concern: minimal.
An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt
Worst Case Barring Extreme Injury Scenarios
Michigan has a high-variance schedule this year with few outright tomato cans and few top 25 teams. The top 25 teams are both at home; Michigan has four road games (Utah, Maryland, Minnesota, and Penn State) against teams that project to be decent to good this year. Meanwhile they have a new coach. Many scenarios are plausible.
In the worst case, Michigan's second corner gets torched all year, they can't get to the QB, and the D tops out at the same good-but-not-great level they've been at for the last few years.
On offense, Rudock is a checkdown machine and Michigan is just Iowa instead of a Rich Man's Iowa. The Big Ten is weak and Michigan has a lot of experience and talent, so truly bad records are probably out of the question but it's not too hard to see them dropping two nonconference games and going 4-4 in conference to finish 6-6.
Best Case
On the other hand, there are only two games that particularly alarm. Both of those are at home. OSU is a unanimous number one and is probably intractable given anything short of a miracle, but Brady Hoke played them tight the last two years with teams that were miserable. MSU is good; they have a few leaks this year.
Even if they win one of those there's enough rickety in this boat to assume they drop another game, probably the opener or road games against Minnesota and Penn State. 10-2 could happen.
Final Verdict
I don't really know, man. I do expect a significant and immediate improvement in Michigan's play. They return almost the entire team. They plug Desmond Morgan, Jake Rudock, and Jabrill Peppers into three of the gaps—maybe up to five depending on if Peppers can hack 3-tech.
The only two guys who don't have immediate replacements or even upgrades are Frank Clark and Devin Funchess. Either would be great to have around; because of the way last season developed neither had as much impact on the field as their talent suggested they should.
Even if Brady Hoke was still around this would be a year in which the arrow should point the right way. Turnovers should head the right way. That swing should be large and could be huge. On a down to down basis Michigan was pretty good until their general derp kicked in.
Harbaugh's teams don't derp it much. That is worth a lot.
Residual chaos will still do Michigan in once or twice this year; the potential issue at kicker looms large for a team that figures to play a bunch of low-scoring slugfests. It'll look like football, though. That much we can promise.
| OOC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 9/3 | @ Utah | Tossup |
| 9/12 | Oregon State | Lean to win |
| 9/19 | UNLV | Must win |
| 9/26 | BYU | Lean to win |
| Conference | ||
| 10/3 | @ Maryland | Lean to win |
| 10/4 | Northwestern | Must win |
| 10/11 | MSU | Lean to loss |
| 10/25 | @ Minnesota | Tossup |
| 11/1 | Rutgers | Lean to win |
| 11/8 | @ Indiana | Must win |
| 11/22 | @ Penn State | Tossup |
| 11/30 | Ohio State | Probable loss |
| Absent: | Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa, Nebraska | |
It says 8-4 here.
September 3rd, 2015 at 10:03 AM ^
Might as well get this on record ...
I really think UM has a great year this year:
9-3 with wins against both MSU and OSU
OR
10-2 going 1-1 against MSU and OSU
Let us not all forget UM was just 7-5 with Rodgriguez and then went 10-2 (regular season) in Hoke's first year. Is the scenario really that different this year?
September 2nd, 2015 at 6:25 PM ^
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September 2nd, 2015 at 6:27 PM ^
I'm ok with 8-4 as long as we beat MSU or OSU, preferably OSU.
September 2nd, 2015 at 6:38 PM ^
150 - 0 over the next 10 years, at which point UM will be invited to join the NFL, is the most preferred outcome.
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September 2nd, 2015 at 7:06 PM ^
September 2nd, 2015 at 8:25 PM ^
I understand I live in Ohio thats why I would prefer beating OSU than MSU. It's not fun times for Michigan fans in Ohio these days believe you me.
September 2nd, 2015 at 6:32 PM ^
Based on my interpretation of your game-by-game predictions, I end up with about 7.5 wins, so round up or down how you please. Even so, call me a measured optimist, as I feel that a 9-3 regular season is highly likely, for no other reason than blatant homerism and the Harbaugh Effect. If the Force is particularly strong with young Harbaugh, then I'm going 10-2
September 2nd, 2015 at 6:38 PM ^
We'll know where this team is after September. Could be a work in progress 2-2 with an uphill fight to 7 wins. Could be a solid 3-1 staring at a 7-9 win season. Could be 4-0 with a mountain of hype seeking double-digit wins and striking serious fear into Dantonio and Meyer. Only time will tell.
BEAT UTAH
September 2nd, 2015 at 6:41 PM ^
Personally I never bought the point towards 2015 optimism; with Hoke and a non-Rudock starting QB this season I think we could have been as low as 4 wins.
Now with Harbaugh 7 or 8 wins and playing with passion would be fine by me, its the trajectory that matters now and we are definitely going to go up from here and its going to be great to watch.
September 2nd, 2015 at 6:42 PM ^
Using Brian's logic, his 8-4 suggests Michigan loses the games it should lose (MSU and OSU) and also loses 2 of 3 of the even (tossup) games. If you lose most of the even games you probably also lose a lean to you game, which gets you to 7-5 or worse. If Michigan wins 2 of 3 of the tossup games the team is likely good enough to win the must and lean to games, which gets you to 9-3 or better. I think they will be on the positive side, with coaching pushing the team to 9-3 or better.
September 2nd, 2015 at 7:14 PM ^
This year, you almost with all those tossups were at home with the probably losses on the road. We'd be looking squarely at 9-10 wins at that point. But if we manage to beat either rival it will be well worth it.
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September 2nd, 2015 at 7:23 PM ^
My point was that if that happened, we probably have weaknesses that will cause us to lose other games that are in the lean to Michigan category and suggests we won't win games that lean to the opposition, which in total adds to more than four losses. I believe the opposite is also true-that if you win all or most of the tossups it suggests strength that will result in 9 or more wins.
September 2nd, 2015 at 6:46 PM ^
September 2nd, 2015 at 7:04 PM ^
I hope you're right but it seems like now every year is the year that MSU is gonna go back to the old MSU and it never happens.
September 2nd, 2015 at 7:20 PM ^
It happened in 2012. They went 7-6 and even lost to Hoke.
September 2nd, 2015 at 7:41 PM ^
September 2nd, 2015 at 6:56 PM ^
September 2nd, 2015 at 6:57 PM ^
But I'll gladly take 8-4.
Just no more 7-6 or 5-7 please.
Go Blue!
September 2nd, 2015 at 7:11 PM ^
With a new staff comes fresh evaluations of where players might best be utilized. With new schemes come different expectations for some positions. Drevno moving Magnuson and Braden is different and less worrisome than Funk doing so.
"Jeremy Clark moves to CB, Wayne Lyons to safety. Only possible interpretation is that Lyons is bad and they're scrambling a bit at the other corner. Concern: high."
That's one interpretation. Marcus Ray had been advocating for that move this year and last based purely on Clark's skillset. As far as Lyons goes, moving him to safety is hardly a shocker. This was the blockquote in the hello post you wrote.
He's a decent corner. I've heard that he'd be better as a safety (or maybe nickel corner, which is how we used him a lot this year), and supposedly we wanted to move him that way. I think the consensus would be that he never quite played up to his expectations, but I'd be sad to see him go.
September 2nd, 2015 at 7:15 PM ^
BYU as a toss up. Can't discount Taysom Hill who shredded at top 15 defense in Texas. If he's healthy and 100% back, he's going to be a problem
September 2nd, 2015 at 7:24 PM ^
For once, could we all just acknowledge that hopes are different from expectations? Could we all just agree that irrational hopes are harmless, but irrational expectations can be a cancer?
I HOPE Michigan wins it all. I hope they beat MSU and Ohio, win in Indy, roll through the playoffs to a National Championship. If they can't do that I hope they make a bowl game and beat one or both of MSU and Ohio. If they can't do that I hope they play better every game and finish showing improvement across the offense, defense and special teams so that expectations for next season can reasonably be raised.
Those are my hopes. My expectatiosn are at least seven regular season wins and a bowl game win from a team that shows progress over the season's course.
So what two things are certain? First that Michigan will play in 12 regular season games. Second that if the fan bases confuses their hopes with their expectations, there is a very good chance for extreme disappointment.
I get Harbaugh. I get that there is a lot of talent on this team. I get they are older. I also get that the offense has not shown an ability to climb the learning curve early in the season. I get that this coaching staff is running the program in a radically different fashion.
So please, lets temper expectations, at least until the end of the out of conference schedule. If they roll out of that 4-0 then okay all of our expectations can reasonably be adjusted. If not we'll all be a lot happier if none of us crawled out on the limb.
Just sayin
Go Blue!
September 2nd, 2015 at 8:11 PM ^
and then you pull out the 8-4.
I think we go at least 9-3 and pull out 1 of the games between OSU and MSU.
As always, great stuff Brian.
GO BLUE!
September 2nd, 2015 at 9:33 PM ^
Damn those gaussian processes and their associated normal distributions......
September 2nd, 2015 at 8:30 PM ^
September 3rd, 2015 at 10:10 AM ^
And my real name isn't Realus
September 2nd, 2015 at 8:40 PM ^
It will. It will look like good football a lot more then bad football. We'll be back to a team that makes mistakes early and learns and is tough at the end. Like Bo's teams or Beilein's teams. We will play our best at the end and that bodes well for the OSU game.
Dammit, let's get this thing going!!!!! I'm going crazy over here!
September 2nd, 2015 at 9:03 PM ^
I'm with you on that. I'm watching Duck Dynasty on A&E, they keep showing the Michigan @ Utah commercial on FS1. Harbaugh's first game back at UM yada yada yada. The wait is driving me crazy.
September 2nd, 2015 at 8:46 PM ^
8-4 is the safe bet, but neither 9-3 nor 7-5 would surprise me. But, I would flip the BYU and Minnesota picks. IMO BYU is the tossup and Minnesota is the lean to win. Unless I'm missing something Minnesota has a really good defensive backfield and not much else. We were horrible last year and that game was a circus. I'd be very surprised if Harbaugh doesn't have this group extremely focused on this game and making a point of making a point to Minnesota. I expect a sound victory in this game.
September 2nd, 2015 at 8:56 PM ^
9-3 should be the floor.
1. Rudock > Gardner
2. This OL >> Last Years OL
3. This RB group >> Last Years RB group
September 2nd, 2015 at 9:32 PM ^
And how is this year RB group better than last year when it's essentially the same plus Issac who hasn't been proven outside of his limited appearance in his freshman year?
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September 2nd, 2015 at 9:43 PM ^
Well, maybe the OL is going to be better this year (Because Harbaugh/Drevno), which will open things for the running game; maybe Wheatley>Fred Jackson.
September 2nd, 2015 at 10:24 PM ^
Maybe having another year to physically mature PLUS the addition of actual coaching means this group will be better. They won't be any faster but if they can hit the hole and get some YAC our offense will look MILES better than last year.
We ran on OSU last year.....we should be able to run on almost anyone this year. Even with DJ sitting on the sidelines.
September 2nd, 2015 at 8:59 PM ^
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September 2nd, 2015 at 9:06 PM ^
and Harbaugh has produced quick turnarounds everywhere he's gone; this year will prove no exception.
I said 8-4 when we hired Harbaugh and that remains...and that's the floor for this team.
If the defense is outstanding (as opposed to very good, which it is) I say 10-2
Otherwise, 8-4, Michigan beats either Michigan State or Ohio State and if UM gets through the OOC schedule undefeated watch out.
This could be a San Francisco type turnaround.
September 2nd, 2015 at 9:08 PM ^
September 2nd, 2015 at 9:11 PM ^
with this prediction, I think 8-4 is about right.
But when was the last time we didn't have at least 1 season ending injury within the first 3 games.
I hate it, but statistically, it's going to happen.
Thats why I have to rule out 10-2, but can't completely rule out 7-5.
The key injury(s) will cause at least 1 loss.
September 2nd, 2015 at 9:27 PM ^
That is a win in itself. UM-45 Utah 20. Yeah, I'm crazy, but I'm calling it ((drinks more scotch)). Everything goes #HARBAUGH tomorrow night and I get some too.
#GOBLUE
September 2nd, 2015 at 9:40 PM ^
WOW! I hope we score 45!
September 2nd, 2015 at 9:27 PM ^
Twice as many wins as losses and an organization of players and coaches that generally resembles a football team sounds just great to me
September 2nd, 2015 at 9:35 PM ^
September 2nd, 2015 at 9:47 PM ^
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September 2nd, 2015 at 11:58 PM ^
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September 2nd, 2015 at 9:38 PM ^
I look back to Funchess' decision to enter the draft and wish he would have decided to stay. I know that he was a poor blocker and some other issues, but I think Harbaugh could have done great things with him. He would have filled a great need in the offense this year.
September 2nd, 2015 at 9:44 PM ^
September 2nd, 2015 at 9:48 PM ^
September 2nd, 2015 at 10:38 PM ^
It's fun to go back and read the comments on this post from 2014 and 2013. It's amazing the # of 10-2 predictions we have every year. The approaching season always brings optimism.
Hopefully a dose of Harbaugh actually brings that optimism to life...
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:04 PM ^
ahhhhhhhh where is the utah preview
....you guys have been putting so much content out lately- sorry for my greed- it's just the last missing piece of the season before gametime!
September 2nd, 2015 at 11:29 PM ^
I think that 6-6 to 10-2 with 8-4 as the most likely scenario is probably about right.
We drop one of at Utah and vs. BYU. I think Harbaugh will make it his personal mission to beat either MSU or OSU and they do in fact win one of those games.
BEST CASE
9/3 @ Utah - W
9/12 Oregon State - W
9/19 UNLV - W
9/26 BYU - W
Conference
10/3 @ Maryland - W
10/4 Northwestern - W
10/11 MSU - W
10/25 @ Minnesota - L
11/1 Rutgers - W
11/8 @ Indiana - W
11/22 @ Penn State - L
11/30 Ohio State - W
10-2 (6-2)
WORST CASE
9/3 @ Utah - L
9/12 Oregon State - W
9/19 UNLV - W
9/26 BYU - L
Conference
10/3 @ Maryland - W
10/4 Northwestern - W
10/11 MSU - L
10/25 @ Minnesota - L
11/1 Rutgers - W
11/8 @ Indiana - W
11/22 @ Penn State - L
11/30 Ohio State - L
6-6 (4-4)
ACTUAL PREDICTION
9/3 @ Utah - L
9/12 Oregon State - W
9/19 UNLV - W
9/26 BYU - W
Conference
10/3 @ Maryland - W
10/4 Northwestern - W
10/11 MSU - L
10/25 @ Minnesota - L
11/1 Rutgers - W
11/8 @ Indiana - W
11/22 @ Penn State - L
11/30 Ohio State - W
8-4 (5-3)
September 3rd, 2015 at 7:05 AM ^
8-4 is the consensus, but rather than a prediction, I mostly see it as a hedge. If things go terribly this team could finish 6-6. If all goes according to plan, 10-2 is within sight. So with nothing coming out of the submarine, everyone's splitting the difference.
Hedge or gander, 8-4 is fine as a prediction, but I think the questionable part is predicting which particular games Michigan will win or lose. Harbaugh took a 1-win Stanford team and IMMEDIATELY made them competitive. They upset the #1 team, on the road, without their starting QB.
This team has too many leaks to fix in such a short time to run the table, but what's exciting about Harbaugh is that NO game is truly beyond hope. The Stanford teams did get blown out at times, even in Harbaugh's fourth season (though Oregon eventually played in the NCG that year). But neither did being 40-point underdogs faze them.
This is a complete turnaround from last year, where I'd written off MSU and OSU because I knew Hoke didn't have the chops to compete with them. Call me a bad fan or whatever; I'm just not stupid. It was a loss on paper and the program had no spark with which to defy the odds. That's the kind of resigned apathy I reserve for my Seattle Mariners. It has no place at Michigan.
September 3rd, 2015 at 7:00 AM ^
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