About Last Week

*Record Scratch*

Yep, that’s me.

You’re probably wondering how I got into this situation.

Well, it’s a long story that started on first and goal. [Paul Sherman]

The Road Ahead

Nebraska (3-6, 2-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 20-13

Recap: Nebraska feels you, pigeon.

@azucena.mf I’m so glad my dad recorded this 😂 #pigeon #flyaway #lol #airport #aeromexico ♬ original sound - AzuMF

Things started off okay. For the second week in a row, Nebraska took an early lead, and managed to move the ball pretty well. But eventually the wind and the general inertia of the Universe were too much.

This team is as frightening as: Chopped Junior. It’s got a bunch of ingredients that don’t really fit together, and even when they make something ‘work’ it doesn’t really WORK, but you kinds want to give them credit for some of the basic stuff that you would just take for granted with a contestant on the adult version. Like, “good for him, he got all eleven players onto the field, and he managed to use the food processor without cutting himself. His parents must be really proud.” Fear Level = 4

Lil Red, heckuva job today, proud of you buddy… but looking at your dish of “corn casserole with a corn chutney and a side of corned corn” I fear you may not have understood the rules of Chopped Junior.

Michigan should worry about: Nebraska has gotten out to hot starts in several games; they led Minnesota this week 10-0, they led Illinois in the second quarter, they led Oklahoma 7-0, they led Northwestern 14-3. Michigan, as you may have noticed, has been a second half team. There’s a decent chance Nebraska will grab, like, an early 10-7 lead, causing Michigan’s inevitable multiple-score win to feel thoroughly unenjoyable for quite a while.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: With Nebraska already struggling to stop the run, and facing a team that loves to screw with linebackers and safeties in run support, they really couldn’t afford to lose linebacker Nick Henrich for the year with a knee injury and safety Myles Farmer to a DUI.

When they play Michigan: Casey Thompson was averaging 9.0 yards per attempt. Chubba Purdy is averaging 2.5 yards per attempt with an 8.3% interception rate. Logan Smothers has thrown 11 passes this year. If Thompson can’t play… yeah.

This week: @ Michigan, 3:30 p.m., ABC (Nebraska +31)

[AFTER THE JUMP: It's... it's hard to describe]

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Illinois (7-2, 4-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Michigan State, 23-15

Recap: I often wonder what it’s like to be a member of a doomsday cult the day after the prophesized doomsday. If you are a member of most religions or political groups or conspiracy theorist organization, you can play off the day-to-day refutations of your belief systems as temporary setbacks or proof of the deviousness of your enemies or whatever. But if you say, “the giant seven headed space iguana will arrive on Tuesday and give us a ride to McDonalds PlayPlace on the dark side of the moon in his Space Iguanamobile and then consume the Earth with Iguana fire,” that all-hands meeting on Wednesday has gotta be REAL tense. Like, man, you didn’t say “our cause is righteous, and we shall prevail when our time comes.” You said “Space Iguana on Tuesday,” and I’m not gonna lie, the lack of Space Iguana is a real blow to morale around here.

Losing to this Michigan State team, at home, a week after Michigan State suffered a pretty deflating loss to their arch-rival, when they were basically playing The Friends We Made Along The Way at defensive end, and allowing Michigan State’s backs to outrush your backs on a yards per carry basis? That’s very much a “this is some pretty concrete evidence that we were sold a bill of goods” situation.

This team is as frightening as: The Cinnamon Challenge, wherein the participant tries to eat entire spoonful of cinnamon in 60 seconds without any water. You aren’t sure whether it is actually dangerous, or whether it will just suck and be rather painful. The participant probably can’t explain why they’re doing it, and there is no real tangible gain to be had, but screw it, why not. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: The Gambler’s Fallacy is called the “Gambler’s Fallacy” and not the “Gambler’s Thing That Is Correct” for a reason. Bad events aren’t ‘due’ just because they’ve been preceded by a statistically unlikely string of good events. But Illinois was due for an oopsie-doodle, and they wasted their oopsie-doodle on an 8-point loss to Michigan State when they could have saved it and spent it on a 37-point loss to Michigan.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Chase Brown’s decline in efficiency continues unabated:

Brown leads the nation with 257 carries, 55 more than any other FBS player. Through 9 games, Brown is only 13 carries short of Hassan Haskin’s B1G-leading 270 carries from all of 2021. Haskins, of course, played 14 games last year. Josh McCray is back and looking healthy. Reggie Love looks good. C’mon, Bert, spread the dang ball around.

When they play Michigan: Occam’s Razor suggests that Illinois just wasn’t as good as we’d thought. They really hadn’t played anybody (and arguably (not really arguably) still haven’t), and while everyone gets one freebie, you don’t get to lose to both Indiana AND Michigan State without a big ol’ Jim Halpert Looking Into The Camera.

This week: vs. Purdue, noon, ESPN2 (Illinois -6.5)
 

Ohio State (9-0, 6-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Northwestern, 21-7

Recap: Unforgiveable. That’s the only word for this. Unforgiveable.

Yes, it was windy and rainy and generally miserable. It was a Stupid Ugly Weather Game. And yes, you played the kind of game necessary to win a Stupid Ugly Weather Game. Great. But I will never, ever forgive you for making me watch SO MUCH OF THAT GODFORSAKEN NORTHWESTERN “OFFENSIVE” “””ATTACK””” on Saturday. You bastards. You absolute monsters. I had things to do. We all had things to do. But instead, we were all stuck watching this ‘My Four-Year-Old Child Has Put Together A Song-And-Dance Extravaganza That They are Clearly Just Making Up As They Go Along But They Asked Mommy And Daddy To Watch And We Love Our Child And Want To Encourage This Creativity’ performance for like seven hours.

They ran the Wildcat — the actual, full-on, thing-that-stopped-being-viable-a-decade-ago Wildcat — as the base offense for a SIGNIFICANT portion of the game. Even when other stuff was working, they kept returning to the goddang Wildcat even after that had STOPPED working. Do you know what they call a pitcher who only throws changeups, Pat Fitzgerald? No? YEAH THAT’S BECAUSE THAT ISN’T A THING.

/sigh

There will be a temptation to both overreact and underreact. The weather was indeed terrible, and the wisest course of action was to just lean on Northwestern on the assumption that a 14-7 lead may as well have been 44-7. But Northwestern entered the game as the worst rushing defense in the conference on a per-play basis, and Miyan Williams really couldn’t get anything going on the ground. 43% of Ohio State’s runs went for 2 or fewer yards, and Williams was stopped on two 3rd-and-1 carries and a 4th-and-1 carry in the first half. Meanwhile, Northwestern gained more total yards, rushed for more yards, earned more first downs, and had the ball with a chance to tie the game with under 7 minutes left on the game. This was an actual game. That I had to watch. You jerks.

This team is as frightening as: Ivan Drago after the second round. You see? He’s cut. He’s not a machine. He’s a man. But he’s still taller and heavier and still PUNCHES REALLY FREEKING HARD, and the fight is taking place in front of a brainwashed sea of red-clad dudes with buzz cuts who have been pounding vodka for many hours. Fear Level = 9.991

You’ll notice also that despite living in the SOVIET UNION, Drago trained entirely indoors, presumably because snow was cold and scary.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Can Ohio State run the ball? In the last three weeks, Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson have combined for 85 yards per game at 3.9 yards per carry, and both have been banged up.

Michigan should worry about: “Can Ohio State run the ball” is a lot like asking “can that flamethrower ALSO shoot laser beams?” I mean, sure, it’s obviously better if it can’t do both, but a flamethrower that can’t shoot lasers can still throw flames.

When they play Michigan: Yep still not thinking about it despite thinking about it all the time.

This week: vs. Indiana, Big Noon Saturday, FOX (OSU -40)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Colorado State (2-7, 2-3 MWC)

Last week: Lost at San José State, 28-16

Recap: Colorado State notched a quality moral victory against SJSU. The Rams were a 24-point underdog, but managed to pull within 5 points with under 4:30 remaining, but they surrendered a 37 yard touchdown pass on 3rd and 15 with the chance to get the ball back.

Colorado State outgained the Spartans (not those Spartans) by more than a yard per play, putting up a season-high 6.7 yards per play. Clay Millen had his best statistical outing of the year, throwing for 261 yards at nearly 11 yards per attempt before being knocked out of the game on an egregious targeting:

You fought well, fellas. Sim to finish.

This week: vs. Wyoming, 7:00 p.m., CBSSN (CSU +8.5)
 

Hawai’i (2-8, 1-4 MWC)

Last week: Lost at Fresno State, 55-13

Recap: If you squint ⁠— and I mean REALLY squint, like Mr. Magoo style ⁠— you can see a couple of silver linings in a game that was 55-0 at one point. 362 total yards at 4.9 yards per play against a solid Fresno team on the road isn’t nothing.

Then again, allowing 572 yards at 8.4 yards per play is pretty bad.

This week: vs. Utah State, 11:00 p.m. (Hawai’i +11.5)
 

UConn (5-5)

Last week: Beat UMass, 27-10

Recap: For once we have nothing much to say about a Michigan non-conference opponent because they took care of business against a clearly overmatched opponent.

Beat one of Liberty or Army. For the lulz.

This week: vs. Liberty, noon, CBSSN (UConn +14.5)
 

Maryland (6-3, 3-3 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Wisconsin, 23-10

Gitche Gumee remains undefeated

Recap: The legend lives on from Piscataway on down
Of the big flop they called ‘Terp Kablooey’
Maryland, it’s said, never ends up ahead
When the Terps of November start losing

A wide receiver corps with four dudes who can score
Masked a defense, uh, slightly less… sturdy?
But that good team, it’s true, wouldn’t stay 6 and 2
When the gales of November came early

The team was doing fine on the Big Ten’s East side
When they flew out to breezy Wisconsin
As Maryland teams go, it was better than most
With a QB and linemen well-seasoned

Concluding a year with maybe nine wins
And dreams of bowl games in sunny Orlando
And when kickoff was nigh and the flags whipping up high
Could it be the collapse they’d been fearin'?

When huddle time came, Taulia brought ‘em in, sayin'
"Receivers, it's too rough to feed ya"
And as Jump Around played, and the line had caved in, he said
"Fellas, it's been good to know ya"

Locksley called in, he had rushers on the edge
And the QB and backs were in peril
And at 3 yards a pass, with the D-Line on his ass
Came the wreck of the ‘22 Terrapins

Does anyone know: where does Maryland go
When they lose to Penn State and Ohio?
The pundits all say that they'll meet Duke or Wake
In the Pinstripe Bowl, brought by New Era

Ohio State rolls, The Nittany Lions sing
In the Big Ten East standings each season
Old Michigan steams like a 1970’s dream
And the Playoff Committee takes notice

And farther below State and Rutgers, you know
Take the wins the Big Ten West can send ‘em
But Terps will no-show, as the Marylanders all know
And as tales of November remind ‘em

The legend lives on from Piscataway on down
Of the big flop they called ‘Terp Kablooey’
Maryland, it’s said, never ends up ahead
When the Terps of November start losing

This week: @ Penn State, 3:30, FOX (Maryland +10)
 

Iowa (5-4, 3-3 B1G)

Last week: Won at Purdue, 24-3

Recap: The National Weather Service had their hands full last Saturday, so maybe amidst all of the rain, wind, and general weathery shit, they failed to notice or mention the interdimensional wormhole that opened up over West Lafayette. Perhaps no one saw it, but clearly the Iowa team from this dimension was replaced with one from a nearby ⁠— but not SUPER-nearby ⁠— dimension.

How else do you explain the Hawkeyes, in conditions that left Ohio State, Maryland, and Purdue completely unable to do jack shit through the air, put up 376 yards at 6.5 yards per play? With Spencer Petras throwing for 192 yards at 8.3 YPA, when CJ Stroud and Taulia Tagovialoa combined for 153 yards at 3.1 YPA? And Kaleb Johnson rushing for 200 yards at NINE YARDS PER CARRY?

Midseason improvement doesn’t explain this. The only logical explanation is that Iowa’s offense got so bad that it collapsed in on itself, creating a Schwarzchild wormhole, also known as an Einstein-Rosen bridge, into a dimension where Iowa football is good. It’s basically the least interesting version of Quantum Leap imaginable.

As a consequence of our entanglement with the Bizarro World, we are now in a situation where, if Purdue beats Illinois at noon on Saturday, there is a VERY good chance that Saturday’s Iowa/Wisconsin will be for the Big Ten West crown. Imagine it: Graham Mertz and New Dimension Spencer Petras engaged in an epic battle for the right to go to Indianapolis, with each looking to take his place alongside such Big Ten West luminaries as Peyton Ramsey, Jack Coan, Clayton Thorson, Alex Hornibrook, Bart Houston, and CJ Beathard (and of course Previous Dimension Spencer Petras).

This week: vs. Wisconsin, 3:30 p.m., FS1 (Iowa +1.5)
 

Indiana (3-6, 1-5 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Penn State, 45-14

Sing it if you know it

Recap: At first glance, this score would seem to suggest that this wasn’t a competitive game.

That first glance is correct.

This week: @ Ohio State, Big Noon Saturday, FOX (IU +40)
 

Penn State (7-2, 4-2 B1G)

Last week: Won at Indiana, 45-14

Recap: Penn State continues to play the role of Penn State in our annual production of “Penn State Is Pretty Good I Guess.” They beat the teams they should beat, they lose to the teams you would expect them to lose to. And Indiana was a team you would expect them to beat.

The Penn State defense held the Jack Tuttle-led offense to 196 yards at 3.1 yards per play, and turned the Hoosiers over 3 times. Meanwhile, despite the conditions, Sean Clifford threw for 10 yards per attempt, though that was aided in part by Mitchell Tinsley and Brenton Strange exploiting a Not-QA’d-Very-Well-Madden-Release glitch in the game:

Penn State has outgained every opponent on a per-play basis this year, except for the two ranked teams they’ve played (Michigan and Ohio State), each of whom outgained them by at least 1.5 yards per play. Penn State: pretty good, I guess.

This week: vs. Maryland, 3:30 p.m., FOX (PSU -10)
 

Michigan State (4-5, 2-4 B1G)

Last week: Won at Illinois, 23-15

Recap: Folks, for the first time in several years… it’s back!

Michigan State looked dead in the water for a bowl game, but their old friend Mother Nature arrived like Gandalf The White and saved their season (to the extent the Quick Lane Bowl or the Guaranteed Rate Bowl can be considered a “saved season” for a team that started the season ranked in the Top 15). They’ll be a significant favorite over both Rutgers and Indiana. Best of luck, guys.

This week: vs. Rutgers, noon, BTN (MSU -10)