About Last Week

No last week. Bye.

The Road Ahead

Michigan State (4-5, 2-4 B1G)

Last week: Bye; Lost to Illinois, 37-34

It’s hard to know exactly where things went wrong. Maybe it was when they had a 28-3 lead late in the first half and the ball at the Illinois 8, but threw a pick. Maybe it was when they had a 28-3 lead and a first down in Illinois territory and 36 seconds left in the half, and somehow went into the half with a 28-10 lead. Maybe it was when they only scored six points in their final 11 drives. Maybe it was when they looked at the Illinois offense and said “let’s make Josh Imatorbhebhe beat us.”

Maybe it was when they continued to allow a probably concussed — and at the very least punch-drunk — Brian Lewerke continue to play, leading to him missing a receiver by approximately ten yards on a pick-six. Maybe it was when, despite Elijah Collins averaging 6.1 yards per carry and Brian Lewerke averaging 8.7 yards per carry, they declined to go for a 4th and 3 from the Illinois 28 that would largely have wrapped the game up; they kicked a field goal. Maybe it was when they single-covered Imatorbhebhe on a 4th and 16 so they could spy Brandon Peters.

Maybe it was when they didn’t really make any changes to the 125th-most efficient offense in college football because they insisted they still had all the answers they needed. Maybe it was when they stopped catching river cards on their two-star afterthought recruits, and their talent started to approximate what their rankings would project. Maybe it was when they decided to push all-in on their 2016 recruiting class and rolled snake-eyes. Maybe it was when Michigan decided to be reasonably good at football again.

Maybe it was when they didn’t understand the root causes of their success, and bought their own hype about how being #SpartanDawgs wasn't a necessary condition, but a sufficient condition. Maybe the game just continues to change, and there is a fine line between maintaining an identity and standing still.

And maybe it’s been over for a while now, but we’ve been making excuses for them because we remember what it used to be like.

This team is as frightening as:

Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: This is still a team that is playing for something. INTRODUCING:

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The shields are down. It's time.

When they play Michigan: I don't know what it will take to do it, but I don't think it's hyperbole to suggest that Michigan has an opportunity to end the Dantonio Era at Michigan State on Saturday. Not to end the dominance, or end the perception of parity, mind you. Both of those are over. No, this is a chance to force Mark Dantonio off the stage for good. No swan song. No "one final season" tour. No, just a quick press conference after the season and then, after a long deposition, an unremarkable silence. Not retired. Vanquished.

And both teams know it. And if Sparty does not want to go quietly into that good night, this is going to be nasty.

Next game: @ Michigan, Big Noon Saturday, FOX (MSU +13.5)

[AFTER THE JUMP: oh no Maryland baby what is you doin']

Indiana (7-2, 4-2 B1G)

Last week: Beat Northwestern 34-3; Bye

Recap: First the bad news. Michael Penix, who has been in and out of the lineup all year with various limb issues, will miss the remainder of the season with a sternoclavicular injury. And while Peyton Ramsey has been surprisingly competent this year, he doesn’t bring the same physical skills as Penix. This also puts Indiana one sprained ankle or uncontrollable bout of intestinal distress away from playing Reese Taylor at quarterback. Taylor, a sophomore, was Mr. Football in the state of Indiana and is a dynamic athlete, but he has spent his year-and-a-half split between quarterback, wide receiver, running back, and cornerback.

Now, the good news: Indiana has already won 7 games, which they hadn’t done in more than a decade. They have a good chance at 8 regular season wins, and at having a winning Big Ten record for the first time since 1993.

Finally, the caveat: Indiana’s schedule to this point has been dreadful. They have played two teams ranked higher than #57 in SP+ (#1 OSU and #35 MSU), and they lost both. Ohio State is their only opponent with a winning record; their eight other FBS opponents are a combined 20-45. No non-Buckeye offense they have faced has been in the top 50 in the country, and the only two ranked in the top 80 (#52 Nebraska and #65 Maryland) were playing backup quarterbacks.

Let’s just say I’m not surprised they’re a two-touchdown dog to Penn State this weekend.

This team is as frightening as:

Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Indiana has been productive through the air against the three top-25 defenses they have played, completing 69% of their passes for 7.5 YPA against Ohio State, Michigan State, and Northwestern.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Indiana didn’t crack 3 yards per carry against any of those three teams, averaging 2.3 YPC on a combined 110 carries. And what appeared to be a possible uptick in Indiana’s running game against Rutgers (6.8 YPC) and Maryland (5.8 YPC) came back to earth against Nebraska (3.4 YPC) and Northwestern (2.8 YPC).

When they play Michigan: The stupid. It arrives with a quickness.

Next game: @ Penn State, noon, ABC (IU +15)

 

Ohio State (9-0, 6-0 B1G)

Last week: Bye; Beat Maryland, 73-14

Technically participants in the same game

Recap: Every year, Michigan fans get to see what it looks like when Ohio State gets geared up —REALLY geared up —for a game. And much fun is had at Michigan’s expense because they lose those games.

Well, every now and then we get to see what it looks like when that overwhelming fury is concentrated against a mediocre foe, and… ouch. Yeah it could be worse.

This team is as frightening as: did you watch the thing they just did. Fear Level = 9.98

Michigan should worry about: Kicker Drue Chrisman Blake Haubeil can pooch-kick a go route better than half of the quarterbacks in the Big Ten can throw one.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Without Chase Young, Ohio State will have to…

/places finger to ear

/nods

…well poop.

When they play Michigan: Look, let's just get through Thanksgiving first.

Next game: @ Rutgers, 3:30 p.m., BTN (OSU -52)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Middle Tennessee State (3-6, 2-3 C-USA)

Last week: Lost at Charlotte, 34-20; Bye

Recap: This probably puts a nail in the coffin of any bowl hopes for Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders trailed by 21 points entering the fourth quarter, which, let’s be honest, if Charlotte had blown a 21-point lead like that to a mediocre team, how embarrassing would that have been. Pretty embarrassing, right? Yep, blowing a 21-point lead in the last 15 minutes would have been quite embarrassing indeed.

Next game: vs. Rice, 4:30 p.m., ESPN+ (MTSU -14)

Army (4-6)

Last week: Lost at Air Force, 17-13; Beat UMass, 63-7

If you listen carefully, you can hear him making the sucking-air-in-through-your-teeth sound a surgeon makes when he or she makes a booboo

Recap: Holy hell, UMass. I don’t think we have spent quite enough time this year discussing just how abhorrent the Minutemen are. Their defense ranks last in the country at 7.8 yards per play allowed, but their offense ranks fourth-worst at only 4.3 yards per play gained. That’s a difference of 3.5 yards per play, which is more than 1.3 yards per play worse than any other team in the country. “But maybe they’ve played a difficult schedule,” you muse in a manner that advances the plot. Well, no. They have not. Their opponents have had SP+ ranks of, in order, #107, (#39 FCS team), #104, #113, #129, #100, #63, #124, #86, and #64. You wanna know how bad a team can get? Well, they are a 40 point underdog this week TO NORTHWESTERN.

Totally Unrelated Fun Fact: UMass led Rutgers 21-7 earlier this year.

Anyway, Army rushed for 498 yards but it doesn’t matter because they were playing the physical incarnation of “Eat at Arby’s.”

Next game: vs. VMI, noon, CBSSN (Army -many)

Wisconsin (7-2, 4-2 B1G)

Last week: Bye; Beat Iowa, 24-22

Recap: This was almost a shot-for-shot remake of the Illinois game, and the Northwestern game for that matter. Wisconsin shot themselves in the foot with a fumble deep in their own territory, an interception, and a missed chip-shot field goal, but held a small but seemingly insurmountable lead for most of the game. Iowa had under 120 yards of total offense late into the third quarter, and seemed to be no threat to do... well, to do anything. And then they scored a touchdown, and kicked a field goal, but then the unthinkable: an explosive offensive play from Iowa. A 75-yard pass to Tyrone Tracy — only Iowa’s fourth play of 40+ yards in conference play this year — put the Hawkeyes a two point conversion away from a tie. They missed, because Iowa, and Wisconsin squeaked out a win.

On the bright side, the Badgers statistically dominated the game, gaining 473 yards to Iowa’s 295. After three straight pedestrian outings against Michigan State, Illinois, and Ohio State, Jonathan Taylor rushed for 250 yards at 8.1 YPC.

Unfortunately for the Badgers, they’ve fallen a couple of boat lengths behind the current leader in the West, and it seems unlikely that they will have a chance to do anything about it when they face the Gophers in Week 14.

Next game: @ Nebraska, noon, BTN (Wisconsin -14.5)

Rutgers

Last week: Lost at Illinois, 38-10; Bye

Same sound as Sam the Minuteman, but with a more resigned "welp" tone

Recap: There is far less shame in getting outscored by 28 by Illinois than we would have thought a month ago — heck, Michigan State accomplished that feat in a shade under 30 minutes on Saturday — but it still ain’t great. They did, however, throw for 8.6 yards per attempt (albeit on 10 attempts), their best number in a conference game since 2015. That said, the offense did actually allow more points than they scored, and Illinois returned a Peak Rutgers fumble and an interception for scores. Defensively, Rutgers held a conference opponent under 6 yards per play for the first time all season, so… that’s something.

Rutgers remains emphatically winless in conference play, and currently has an in-conference scoring ratio (i.e. ratio of Rutgers’ points to total points in Rutgers games) of 8.9%. This would put them right on the “worst Big Ten team since 1944 Iowa” line. However, with games remaining against Ohio State and at Penn State (and Michigan State, but… yeah okay I think we’ve covered that), they have a real shot of getting below the magic 8.7% line that would make them the Worst Big Ten Team Ever.

Next game: vs. Ohio State, 3:30 p.m., BTN (Rutgers +52)

Iowa (6-3, 3-3 B1G)

Last week: Bye; Lost at Wisconsin, 24-22

Recap: nope, already talked about iowa, can’t make me do it again

Next game: vs. Minnesota, 4:00 p.m., FOX (Iowa -2.5)

Illinois (6-4, 4-3 B1G)

Last week: Beat Rutgers, 38-10; Won at Michigan State, 37-34

Recap: I’m not entirely sure what to say about this. It’s fun to frame this as a glorious comeback, but… I mean… what did they do? I’m serious. After MSU went up 28-3, seven of Illinois’ remaining eleven drives were either 3-and-outs or first-down-and-outs. They “forced” a crucial red zone turnover here:

Michigan State gave them the football on the +8 yard line after a yakety snap, which Illinois turned into zero points. Michigan State gave them a pick-six by allowing their clearly-not-concussed-so-quit-asking quarterback to throw the ball eight yards behind a relatively open receiver, and they responded by missing the tying extra point. They turned a 1st and goal at the one into a 4th and goal at the four, went with a fade to Not Josh Imatorbhebhe, and got bailed out by a (legitimate) pass interference. They then almost pulled off a 2015 Minnesota and allowed the clock to run out (they had 36 seconds when first down started, and second down ended with 5 seconds left) before throwing a touchdown pass.

The lesson here: If Sparty is Noing, just let it happen. As long as you don’t actively impede it, it will come to fruition.

For Illinois, there are basically no more lands to conquer. Lovie’s resplendent beard seems safe in Champaign for another year, even if they somehow manage to lose at home to Northwestern to close the year out (which would objectively be horrifying).

Next game: Bye

Penn State (8-1, 5-1 B1G)

Last week: Bye; Lost at Minnesota, 31-26

Recap: Penn State hadn't given up more than 10 yards per passing attempt since James Franklin's first game as Penn State coach in 2014, when they gave to 10.1 YPA to UCF. On Saturday, they surrendered 17.0 yards per pass. The Gophers completed 18/20 passes for 339 yards and 3 TDs. And they did it with two guys: Rashod Bateman caught 7 passes for 203 yards, and Tyler Johnson caught 7 for 104.

Penn State's playoff hopes aren't completely dead, though they would certainly have to win out, which would presumably have to include a Big Ten Championship Game rematch with these same Gophers.

Next game: vs. Indiana, Noon, ABC (PSU -15)

Notre Dame (7-2)

Last week: Beat Virginia Tech, 21-20; Won at Duke, 38-7

Recap: I’ll be honest, I didn’t watch any of this game. To be fair, neither did you. No one did. It was on the ACC Network. Allegedly. I’m not 100% convinced the ACC Network actually exists. Think about it: who would notice? Who are the Duke or NC State or Syracuse fans who are going to be jumping up and down screaming “I CAN’T FIND MY BELOVED BLUE DEVILS ON THE MOVING PICTURE BOX.” This is very much a Harold Hill Children’s Band situation. And hey, who am I to judge. You get yours, ACC Network executives. If you exist.

ACC Network CEO Randall Stephens is doing a bang-up job.

According to ESPN (who is presumably in on this scheme), Notre Dame dominated this game from the drop, going up 21-0 early in the second quarter. They rushed for 288 yards at 6.9 yards per carry, and held Duke under 200 yards of total offense. Ian Book, though, continues his run of mediocrity, finishing with 181 yards at 5.7 yards per attempt. He hasn’t exceeded 6.6 yards per attempt against a Power 5 opponent since the season opener against Louisville.

Next game: vs. Navy, 2:30 p.m., NBC (ND -9.5)

Maryland (3-7, 1-6 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Michigan, 38-7; Lost at Ohio State, 73-14

Recap: Having a plan is good. The key to any successful endeavor is knowing in which direction your first step should be. But there is one thing worse than not having a plan: having a terrible plan. A man standing alone in the desert, if he does not come up with a plan, is sure to perish. But a man standing alone in a desert whose plan involves an Acme rocket and a giant slingshot is likely to perish sooner and in a far more spectacular manner.

Pictured: a thoroughly vetted plan

I don’t know if Maryland, or some pro-Maryland partisan, somehow masterminded the Chase Young suspension. It seems plausible but far from definitive. But if it was, Maryland has gotta have a chat with their Evil Plans department. I’m sure, if it happened, they had a good theory. They had whiteboards and Charlie-Day-explaining-Pepe-Silvio corkboards and equations and everything. But every invasion of Russia started with a plan. The Donner Party’s shortcut was part of a plan. Every communist dictatorship's Five Year Plan literally had the word “Plan” in the title.

Some day we may learn the full story, and maybe it will explain how this was not supposed to end as the absolute cataclysm it ended as. But if you've got Ohio State kicking onside kicks up 14-0 in the first quarter and calling timeouts to get the ball back at the end of the first half with a 42-0 lead, buddy you better crunch those numbers again.

Unfortunately, we must check in one final time with the Turtlecoaster.

Terminal

We come not to honor the Turtlecoaster, but to bury it.

Next game: Bye. Sweet, merciful bye.