About Last Week

Michigan is throwing 16.3 passes per game, which is #126 out of 130 FBS teams. Which is fair, I suppose. It would be cruel to run 100% of the time.

Indeed, ‘twould be a shame if a coach who made “win with cruelty” a mantra got a hold of this running game.

Quite a shame.

The Road Ahead

Rutgers (3-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Delaware, 45-13

Recap: A thorough beatdown of a pretty good FCS team. So, that’s something.

This team is as frightening as: One of the 12 best teams in the Big Ten. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Rutgers hasn’t been undefeated in their non-conference schedule since 2014. They haven’t been 3-0 in any season since 2012. Hell, they’ve reached 2-1 exactly once since joining the Big Ten. The old adage that “you have to walk before you can run” has a lesser-quoted corollary, “…and you have to stop actively stapling your scrotum to the bench before you can walk.” Well, if nothing else, Rutgers seems to have dropped the staple gun.

Of course, they immediately picked up a paintball gun.

Rutgers' Chris Long, Max Melton have been suspended.
Greg Schiano statement: "I was informed that Chris Long and Malachi Melton were taken into police custody early this morning as a result of an incident involving a paint ball gun. Both players have been suspended immediately."

— Chris Iseman (@ChrisIseman) September 21, 2021

This is why you can’t have nice things.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Rutgers’ offense is still rickety; they’re averaging 3.3 yards per carry, next-to-last in the Big Ten, and they are averaging 5.1 yards per pass attempt against FBS teams. Their defense also rely on getting teams behind the chains, and Michigan has allowed only seven tackles for loss through three games. I mean, they’re still bad. We all know that, right?

When they play Michigan: Michigan has never trailed Rutgers at home. In games played in Ann Arbor, Michigan has outgained Rutgers by an average of 287 total yards and 3.3 yards per play.

Next game: @ Michigan, 3:30 p.m., ABC (Rutgers +20)

[After THE JUMP: Indiana jumps out to a lead]

Wisconsin (1-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye.

This team is as frightening as: Why must you ask me questions you already know the answer to. Wisconsin is Wisconsin. They’ve been Wisconsin. And until the cheese curd mines dry up, it will remain Wisconsin. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Ask me again after this weekend. Notre Dame is at least somewhat of a known quantity, we may finally have enough data to decide whether this is a “huh, I kinda thought they would win the West” year and a “HOW ARE THEY STILL UNDEFEATED” year.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Graham Mertz remains Taller Shea Patterson Wearing Moon Shoes.

Unlike Graham Mertz, these were fun and awesome

When they play Michigan: I will not get my hopes up about a game in Madison. I will not get my hopes up about a game in Madison. I will not get my hopes up about a game in Madison. I will not get my hopes up about a game in Madison. I will get my hopes up about a… oh dagnabbit.

Next game: vs. Notre Dame, noon, FOX (UW -6.5)

Nebraska (2-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Oklahoma, 23-16

Recap: Some teams are not out here for moral victories. Nebraska is not one of those “some teams.” They will take this and run with it.

Nebraska actually outgained Oklahoma on a per-play basis, drawing the Sooners into a Verdun-like battle of attrition where each team only had 9 possessions. The only turnover was an Adrian Martinez pick on a 4th-and-17 heave. Oklahoma never seemed particularly threatened, but their willingness to simply choke this game out is both surprising and a testament to Nebraska’s fortitude.

This team is as frightening as: A team that has some parts but remains less than the sum of those parts. So, basically, they’re Adrian Martinez. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine Nebraska started the season in Week 1, and that the Week 0 game against Illinois was a few weeks away in the middle of Nebraska’s schedule. What would you think of the Huskers?

Hypothetical Nebraska is 2-1 with a 45-point win over an FCS school, a 25-point win over a decent MAC school, and a 7 point loss to the #4 team in the country on the road. They are averaging 7.0 yards per play, #21 in the country. They are averaging 11.9 yards per pass attempt, #5 in the country and the best among Power 5 teams. They’re outgaining their opponents by 2 yards per play. They’re getting some votes in the AP Polls.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Buuuuuuuut they did play that Week 0 game. And to paraphrase Paul McCartney, sometimes it doesn’t matter how many Fordhams you beat, and how many Oklahomas you challenge, if you f*ck one Bert, you won’t be known as the Scott the Sooner Challenger.

When they play Michigan: Perhaps it’s my “I have watched this guy like 20 times” bias, but I just can’t see Adrian Martinez holding it together.

Next game: @ Michigan State, 7:00 p.m., FS1 (Nebraska +5)

Northwestern (1-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Duke, 30-23

Recap: Quit trying to make Hunter Johnson a thing. It’s not going to be a thing.

Johnson was 6 of 16 for 75 yards (4.7 YPA), no TDs (and no points scored on any of his drives), one red zone fumble, and three terrible, horrible, no good very bad interceptions.

The score was 27-0 before Pat Fitzgerald gave Johnson a firm yank. And his backup, 5th year senior Andrew Marty, was perfectly fine. He completed 11 of 16 passes for 9.4 yards per attempt and two TD’s. He got Northwestern back to within one score, 30-23. Finally, it appears Northwestern has found their man under cen…

/places finger to earpiece

Andrew Marty is out with an upper body injury.

— Northwestern Football (@NUFBFamily) September 18, 2021

Ah, well. Nevertheless.

Ryan Hilinski was 2 of 7 for 34 yards to close out the game.

This team is as frightening as: Among the rockier rocks to ever rock.

Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Andrew… Marty?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The fact that we’re worried about Andrew Marty.

When they play Michigan: Neither team should throw a single pass. Michigan? Because they don’t need to. Northwestern? Because children might be watching.

Next game: vs. Ohio, noon, BTN (Northwestern -14.5)

 

Michigan State (3-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Miami, 38-17

Recap: This column is significantly less fun when we can’t snipe at Sparty for being… well, Sparty. But alas, dear reader, we once again find ourselves in a position where we are laughing about the relative lack of discipline and organization of Michigan State’s OPPONENT. Which, man, at this point why are we even here?

Michigan State didn’t look like world-beaters for much of Saturday’s game. They could not defend Miami WR Charleston Rambo (12 catches for 156 yards and 2 TDs), and before D’Eriq King got banged up, it felt like Miami could probably move the ball pretty easily. But Miami was a disaster factory; four turnovers, a missed 27 yard field goal, a ‘blew the breakaway layup’ of a dropped touchdown pass, and just a general shitshow nature. Michigan State, in contrast, looked competent and organized (if unremarkable), and just refused implode with Miami.

Kenneth Walker continues to shine in spite of an offensive line that isn’t really opening any holes for him.

RBs with the most rushing yards after contact through Week 3

1. Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State: 372
2. Mataeo Durant, Duke: 238
3. TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State: 236 pic.twitter.com/a2BfjS9l8c

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 22, 2021

This team is as frightening as: Mongol Hordes. Typically too busy fighting amongst each other to pose a threat, but on the rare occasion they can all point their ire in the same direction, they can really wreck your day. Reside in a featureless, barren land. Still to be seen whether they can assault established defenses. Fear Level = 8

 

Michigan should worry about: As you may be unaware, Michigan State considers Michigan a ‘rival,’ and often concentrates disproportionately on that contest as compared to other contests.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: MSU’s pass defense might be really, really bad. D’Eriq King was 22 of 27 for 233 yards in the first half alone on Saturday. They also allowed Hunter Johnson to complete 70% of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt, which translates to “Patrick Mahomes in a dune buggy” when you convert to normal quarterback units.

When they play Michigan: Don’t let Walker bounce.

Next game: vs. Nebraska, 7:00 p.m., FS1 (MSU -5)

Indiana (1-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Cincinnati 38-24

Recap: Indiana jumped out to a 14-0 lead against a Top 10 team at home, let the other team back into the game, retook the lead and led going into the fourth quarter, lost the lead again, had a chance to get it back but fumbled on first and goal from the 2-yard line, had ANOTHER chance to take the lead but threw a terrible interception, and ended up losing by double digits.

Welcome back, CHAOSTEAM.

This team is as frightening as: 2017 Michigan. Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Indiana is only allowing 5.4 yards per pass attempt.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michael Penix is pressing. His mistakes scream “trying to do too much.” And there are a lot of mistakes, including an end zone interception that cost Indiana a field goal try and a pick at the end of the first half that gave Cincinnati three free points.

When they play Michigan: It remains to be seen whether Indiana can re-capture the Loveable Agent of Chaos Indiana aura while being coached by Tom Allen. My guess is no.

Next game: @ Western Kentucky, 8:00 p.m., CBSSN (IU -9)

Penn State (3-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Auburn, 28-20

Recap: Holy Sean Clifford, Batman.

28 of 32 for 280 yards (8.8 YPA) against an SEC school? And not even, like, a Vanderbilt or a Missouri, but a real SEC school?

This team is as frightening as: A possum. Not particularly friendly in general, but particularly angry and dangerous at home. Also, beady eyes and a weird-looking tail.

Watch out, it’s… uh… a demonically possessed mouse-bear who thinks it’s a bit brisk in here.

Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Penn State’s line didn’t allow a single sack against Auburn. They have come a long, long way from the line that gave up a sack on a 2-man rush against Temple a few years back.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: After being in the top 3 in the Big Ten in sacks per game from 2015-2019 and averaging 2.9+ sacks per conference game each season, Penn State was fifth in the conference last year at 2.3 sacks per game. Through three games in 2021, despite facing the second most pass attempts per game in the conference (40.3 per game), they have only three sacks.

When they play Michigan: Michigan will be a heavy favorite, assuming Penn State is only allowed to play with three downs on every series.

Next game: vs. Villanova, noon, BTN (PSU -this isn’t basketball)

Maryland (3-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Illinois, 20-17

Recap: !!!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’m so proud of you guys.

Now, in the abstract, a three point win over arguably the worst team in the Big Ten ⁠— and I say “arguably” the way local news reporters feel the need to use the word “allegedly” when they say, “the defendant allegedly pooped in the mayor’s koi pond, as captured by five security cameras and three eye witnesses and confirmed by fecal DNA and a signed statement from the defendant saying only, ‘yes, I pooped in the mayor’s koi pond’” ⁠— would not be cause for celebration for any but the most UConn of teams. But as we have discussed at length, 2-0 Maryland is easy. 3-0 Maryland is damn near miraculous.

You can see how much of an uphill battle they were fighting by the numbers; they outgained the Illini by better than two yards per play. They were only -1 on turnover margin. And yet Illinois was leading by 7 with under 5 minutes left with the ball in Maryland territory before Illinois blew it in hilarious fashion Maryland snatched rightful victory from the jaws of ghastly defeat.

This team is as frightening as: One of those experiments where scientists prove something insane, but it only works under the most unnatural conditions possible. Like, yes, it IS possible to get a Cesium atom to do the dance to Apache (Jump On It) by the Sugarhill Gang, but only if we cool the chamber to within a billionth of a degree of absolute zero and smash it with exactly four Unobtanium nuclei and a dash of Splenda at 97% of the speed of light.

It may take perfect conditions, but Maryland CAN continue winning. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Taulia Tagovialoa remains healthy and productive, and he has the most passing attempts (106) and yards (956) in the country of any quarterback that has not thrown an interception.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: We all know the half-life of Maryland quarterbacks, and while we can’t predict when any individual quarterback will decay, buddy, we’re on borrowed time.

When they play Michigan: Dontay Demus and Rakim Jarrett will be a good warm-up for (or a blaringly ominous red flag regarding) Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson the following week.

Next game: vs. Kent State, 3:30 p.m., BTN (MD -14.5)

 

Ohio State (2-1, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Tulsa, 41-20

Recap: I know. I know. But hear me out.

Ohio State trailed Minnesota at the half. Season opener, on the road, against a Big Ten team, etc. etc. That happens.

Ohio State trailed Oregon ⁠— a team missing its two best defenders ⁠— for the last 50 minutes, giving up almost 7 yards per play in the process. But Oregon is a good team, Joe Moorhead is a fantastic football mind who is familiar with Ohio State, etc. That happens.

Ohio State led 0-2 Tulsa by 7 points midway through the 4th quarter, with Tulsa driving into Ohio State territory. Tulsa put up more than 500 yards of offense at 6.1 yards per play, including 428 yards passing at 7.9 yards per attempt. TULSA. A team that lost to UC Davis to open the season.

That doesn’t happen.

This team is as frightening as: When the bully who beats you up and takes your lunch money every day catches a cold. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: TreVeyon Henderson did rush for 277 yards on 24 carries, which seems like a problem.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: We’re three weeks into the season, and they’ve functionally fired their defensive coordinator, their starting quarterback has an injured shoulder, the Shoe had its lowest attendance since 1971, and one of their linebackers who *started in Week 1* is transferring.

There are ‘Ohio State problems’ and there are ‘problem problems.’ Ohio State has problem problems.

When they play Michigan: Are we doing that this year? I kinda figured we’d skip this one again.

Next game: vs. Akron, 7:30 p.m., BTN (OSU -49.5, yes really, Akron is butt)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Western Michigan (2-1, 0-0 MAC)

Last week: Won at Pitt, 44-41

Obligatory.

Recap: Hello, Strength of Schedule Boost.

Western Michigan surrendered almost 8.5 yards per play, including 415 passing yards (12.2 YPA) and 6 passing TDs, but forced three Kenny Pickett turnovers (one pick and two fumbles) and two turnovers on downs. Offensively, Kaleb Eleby threw for 337 yards and 3 TDs, with Corey Crooms and Skyy Moore combining for 285 yards receiving on 19 catches.

Next game: vs. San Jose State, 2:00 p.m., ESPN+ (WMU -3)

Washington (1-2, 0-0 Pac-12)

Last week: Beat Arkansas State, 52-3

Recap: Hey, Strength of Schedule Boost, no need to run off. Why don’t you stick around.

Washington offense’d for the first time in 2021, to the tune of 598 total yards. Dylan Morris threw for 367 yards at 9.4 yards per attempt. This game was never close; Washington was up 28-0 after 20 minutes.

Ultimately, Washington’s fate is probably irrelevant for Michigan’s purposes. Michigan probably isn’t going to be in the playoff hunt, and even if they are, no one is going to go back and change their opinion about a Week 2 non-conference game. But it may as well be an irrelevant positive rather than an irrelevant negative.

Next game: vs. Cal, 9:30 p.m., Pac 12 Network (UW -7.5)