About Last Week:

Michigan fans are (justifiably, I would argue) disappointed with the way the Harbaugh Era has played out thus far. It’s not exactly what we envisioned. But, folks…

 

We have reached peak B1G already, a punt return safety with an illegal forward pass pic.twitter.com/h5KyR8UpXt

— CJ Fogler #BlackLivesMatter (@cjzero) August 28, 2021

…it could be so, so much worse.

Scott Frost is now 12-21 as Nebraska’s head coach. That’s two full games worse than Rich Rodriguez’s 14-19 record at Michigan through 33 games. He hasn’t beaten a single ranked team, nor has he beaten a team that finished better than 7-6 on the season. He has yet to win more than 3 conference games in a season, and he’s in the Big Ten West.

You know how bad it is? This is the Wikipedia summary of the nearly four year tenure as the 17th-highest paid head coach in college football and the highest paid employee of the state of Nebraska:

That’s it. That’s the whole thing. That’s all anyone has bothered to write about him. “He was hired.” For comparison purposes, the ‘husking and dehulling’ section of the corn husk Wikipedia page is more than ten times as long. Literal cornhusking is tenfold more noteworthy than the Scott Frost Era.

[After THE JUMP: A road ahead]

The Road Ahead:

Northwestern

Last year: 7-2 (6-1 B1G), Lost BTCG to Ohio State, Beat Auburn in the Citrus Bowl 35-19

Recap: Last week, we discussed the Michigan/Rutgers Triple Overtime Fiesta of Ineptitude as the subject of a solid memory-holing. But that was just one game. The human brain can reject individual events that it deems either too harmful to retain or too incongruous to fit into the broader context of the observer’s universe. It has something to do with the hippocampus.

But can it excise an entire football season?

The point at which a memory is so boring it can no longer escape the gravity of Evanston is called the Non-event Horizon; the distance from there to the singularity at the center is known as the “Fitzgerald Radius”

Did you know that Northwestern went 6-1 in the regular season last year? And won the Big Ten West? And played a competitive Big Ten Championship Game against Ohio State, where they led at the half and stayed tight for more than three quarters? And then beat Auburn in the Citrus Bowl? I didn’t. And I watched it.

And looking back (again, based on published reports and not my own recollections, of which NONE EXIST), it’s hard to explain how any of that happened. Northwestern, led by Indiana transfer Peyton Ramsey, put up an only-better-than-Rutgers 4.7 yards per play against Big Ten opponents (they surrendered more yards per play than they gained). Peyton Ramsey’s 5.8 YPA in the Big Ten was the second worst of any quarterback who threw at least 100 passes (and didn’t play for Rutgers).

When last we saw them: Michigan hasn’t played Northwestern since 2018, which Michigan won 20-17 despite trailing 17-0.

Michigan has one of the low-key dumbest rivalries with Northwestern in recent years. 2012 was the bomb to Roy Roundtree from Michigan’s 38-yard line with 17 seconds left trailing by a touchdown. 2013 was the Dileo Power Slide. 2014 was #M00N. 2018 was the aforementioned comeback, featuring the Holding Call From Mars.

Overall, Michigan has managed to win 11 of the 12 games between the teams since the A-Train Fumble game, though many of them were admittedly the result of some high quality bullshit.

This team is as frightening as (Global Pandemic Edition, continued): Syphilis. Painful, but rarely deadly in the 21st century. If it gets you, it can be embarrassing to explain to others how you ended up in that situation. Will mess with your brain. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Northwestern won three and a half times as many games as Michigan last year.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Peyton Ramsey is gone, meaning Northwestern is turning back to Hunter Johnson, the former five-star Clemson transfer who completed 46% of his passes for 4.0 yards per attempt in six games for Northwestern in 2019. That offense ⁠— and I say this as someone who has watched more Rutgers football than any ten men should watch ⁠— was the most painful offense I have ever observed.

When they play Michigan: Coming off a bye week, but the week before Michigan State, puts this one in a weird spot.

First game: vs. Michigan State, 9:00 p.m. Friday, ESPN

Michigan State

Last year: 2-5 (2-5 B1G)

Recap: Almost nothing went right in Mel Tucker’s first season. The offense struggled to move the ball, averaging fewer than 4.8 yards per play and fewer than 2.7 yards per carry. They lost to Rutgers, got shut out by Indiana, lost 40+ point blowouts to Iowa and Ohio State, and turned an 11 point halftime lead over Penn State into a 15 point loss.

But the key word in the paragraph above, however, is “almost.”

When last we saw them: In hindsight, the loss remains surprising. Knowing what we know now, the idea that “Rocky Lombardi will chuck the ball up and Michigan’s corners will completely forget how feet work, and Joe Milton will seize up in his first matchup against a real defense” isn’t, like, insane.

But at the time, it seemed almost unfathomable. Michigan was coming off a dismantling of ranked (lol) Minnesota, and Michigan State was coming off a loss to Rutgers. Michigan was a three and a half *touchdown* favorite.

This team is as frightening as: COVID. On the grand scale, it’s not that threatening. But it sucked in 2020, it’ll suck in 2021, and it’s making our lives miserable. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Look man, if you can’t find a way to worry about Michigan/Michigan State on Halloween weekend, WHAT THE HELL HAVE YOU BEEN DOING? Have you learned and read and seen and smelled NOTHING?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Again, Michigan State sucked last year, and they will probably still suck this year…

When they play Michigan: …as if that will matter.

First game: @ Northwestern, 9:00 p.m. Friday, ESPN

Indiana

Last year: 6-2 (6-1 B1G), Lost Outback Bowl to Ole Miss, 26-20

Recap: It is generally impossible, if not outright lazy, to try to encapsulate an entire season in one image. This is especially true when it’s an image of the season opener. But this shot from Indiana’s opener is a pretty damn good summary of Indiana’s season.

 

Indiana upsets Penn State in overtime pic.twitter.com/pROzRXaJZ6

— Abby Drey (@ADreyPhotos) October 24, 2020

After years ⁠— and I mean YEEEEEEEEARS ⁠— of being Charlie Brown to college football’s Lucy, one of those Stupid Indiana Heartbreaker Games finally went their way. And when it did, it was as if the dam burst, and everything fell into place. A 6-1 conference record. Wins over Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. The most conference wins of any Big Ten East team, which any Illinois basketball fan will remind you means you TOTALLY WON THE LEAGUE.

They barely even played any of those insane Indiana games. After Michael Penix Jr. totally, definitely, indisputably crossed the goal line on that two point conversion against Penn State, Indiana put together comfortable wins for most of the rest of their schedule. The one blip was a furious comeback that fell short against Ohio State.

When last we saw them: Finally, a nice, boring Indiana game that went about as you were expecting going in.

This team is as frightening as: Kuru. A prion disease with an incubation period of up to several decades, but once it appears, it’s devastating. Occur primarily in the extremely geographically isolated regions. Symptoms include “body tremors, random outbursts of laughter, gradual loss of coordination,” which if that doesn’t describe watching a Michigan/Indiana game, I don’t know what does. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: We saw signs last year of a fully operational Michael Penix, Jr. In his last three healthy games (Michigan, MSU, and OSU), he put up 1153 yards passing (384 per game) at 8.3 yards per attempt and a 10 TDs against only 3 INTs.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Despite not running very often, Penix has yet to stay healthy for a full season.

When they play Michigan: Indiana hasn’t won two straight games against Michigan since ‘58-‘59.

I’m not sure if this is supposed to make you feel better or worse.

First game: @ Iowa, 3:30 p.m., BTN

Penn State

Last year: 4-5 (4-5 B1G)

Recap: What looked to be an outright hilarious Penn State season ended up at only mildly amusing. After starting off the season 0-5, they rattled off four straight wins to reach a respectable 4-5 record. Granted, those final four games were against Michigan, Rutgers, Michigan State, and Illinois, who combined to finish 9-21 on the year. But wins are wins, and James Franklin gets to ride into 2020 on some solid Dead Cat Bounce Momentum after “””””figuring things out”””””” at the end of the year.

When last we saw them: We thought we’d seen the worst Michigan/Penn State had to offer in 2014.

We were wrong.

/fiddles with calculator
/scratches forehead
Yep those are two bad teams alright.

And to make matters worse, Cade McNamara hurt his shoulder a couple of drives into the game. Mercifully, those sixty minutes of cow-humping were the last we saw of Michigan’s football team in 2020.

This team is as frightening as: Spanish Flu. Boring but reasonably lethal. Will beat you up in the trenches. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Sean Clifford beat Michigan WITH HIS LEGS last year. That’s… that’s not something you recover from.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Likely because of the late date of this one (November 13), it will not be a White Out game, and probably won’t be a night game.

When they play Michigan: Ask not for whom the Seven Nation Army tolls. It tooooo-oooooAAAAAA-o-o-oooooo-oooooooooolls for thee.

First game: @ Wisconsin, noon, FOX

Maryland

Last year: 2-3 (2-3 B1G)

Turtles

Recap: Our All-Or-Nothing Turtle Friends were back in 2020. After a catatonic 43-3 loss to Northwestern in the opener, Maryland put up 45 points on Minnesota, and then 28 points in the first half against Penn State. They then scored zero offensive points in the second half against Penn State, and 11 points (8 of which were in a garbage time touchdown) against Indiana. It’s hard to get much of a read on anything after the Penn State game, though, as Maryland took 2 weeks off after the Penn State game for a COVID shutdown, played Indiana, took another week off, and then played Rutgers with both teams missing their starting quarterbacks.

The good news for Maryland is that they have a quarterback! A pretty good one! And one who stayed healthy (except for a likely COVID thing that caused him to miss the Rutgers game)! The bad news is that, as you know, Maryland requires at least five quarterbacks to complete a full season, and the depth behind Taulia Tagovialoa is (a) VMI transfer coming off a torn ACL, (b) a walk-on coming off shoulder surgery, and (c) another walk-on.

When last we saw them: The 2020 game was canceled due to COVID. Michigan is 5-1 against Maryland since they joined the Big Ten and 5-0 under Harbaugh, winning those games by an average of 32 points.

This team is as frightening as: Bonus Eruptus. A terrible condition where the skeleton tries to leap out of the mouth and escape the body. Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: We have no idea what Maryland is going to look like in Week 2, let alone Week 12. They could be a tire fire, or they could be a maniacal death machine. But when you SUPER NEED THIS ONE TO BE A WIN, that kind of variability is concerning.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: We have no idea what Maryland is going to look like in Week 2, let alone Week 12. And we’ve already got enough to worry about in the first 11 weeks. This is a “Butch and Sundance worrying about drowning” situation. Worry about that if you live that long.

When they play Michigan: A solid win to end the season.

First game: vs. West Virginia, 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Ohio State

Last year: 7-1 (5-0 B1G), won Big Ten, Lost Championship Game to Alabama 52-24

Recap: In a total shocker, Ohio State was really good.

When last we saw them: Somewhere in December of 2019, a stranger knocked on a Michigan fan’s door with a proposition.

“If you push this button,” he explained, “Michigan will not lose to Ohio State in 2020.”

“SOLD”

“But…”

“YOU ALREADY MADE THE SALE, MY MAN. LEARN TO TAKE YES FOR AN ANSWER.”

“But there is a catch.”

“DON’T CARE. BUTTON NOW.”

“You must know that if…”

“I AIN’T ‘MUST KNOW’ SHIT. SMASHY TIME.”

“The world as you know it will be plunged into…”

“MY MAN, WHY MUST YOU CONTINUE WITH THE BLABBERING WHEN THERE IS SO MUCH BUTTON THAT REMAINS UNPUSHED?”

…

“I’d like to push the button now.”

One year later, in December of 2020, that fan realized what the weird old Button Dude was trying to tell him. He thought about the previous twelve months. And, looking back at all the death and sickness and upheaval, he said quietly to himself, “NAILED IT.”

This team is as frightening as: The Rage virus from 28 Days Later/28 Weeks Later. So fast. So soulless. So single-minded. So much drooling. Fear Level = 10

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Ohio State will be breaking in a new quarterback. And eventually, one of these years, Ohio State will NOT win that year’s game of Quarterback Bingo. The laws of statistics dictate that they must, at some point, have a year where the most important position in sports doesn’t just randomly work out

Michigan should worry about:

You wanna place odds that “one of these years” is this year?

When they play Michigan: /starts googling assorted pandemic candidates

First game: @ Minnesota, 8:00 p.m. Thursday, FOX