About Last Week

That game needed David Attenborough on the play-by-play.

The Road Ahead

Illinois (2-3, 0-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Minnesota, 40-17

Recap: I fear the Lovie Smith experiment may, unlike his glorious beard, be cut short. Illinois simply hasn’t made up enough ground on the defensive side of the ball. After two solid performances against bottom-5 national offenses, the Illini have given up over 6.8 yards per play over their last three games. In their last four games, they are surrendering 9.1 yards per pass. And any defensive improvement (and there has been some improvement, albeit from among the lowest points in recent Big Ten memory) has been more than overshadowed by a regression by the offense.

The details of the Minnesota game are almost superfluous at this point. The Illini got shredded on the ground (allowing over 330 yards rushing for the second straight week). The offense scored three total points — their two scores were on defensive returns — and put up 3.8 yards per play.

Now Brandon Peters is hurt; Illinois hasn’t disclosed the injury, but he left the game with what appeared to be a concussion-type event. And given Peters’ history, that is a scary prospect. Meanwhile, four-star freshman Isaiah Williams (NTIW) missed the trip with an injury, so Illinois is basically down to redshirt freshman Matt Robinson.

This team is as frightening as: If Nick Sheridan was quarterbacking 2009 Michigan. Fear Level = 2.5

Michigan should worry about: Michigan is struggling at the moment.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Illinois is struggling at the moment. And “Michigan is struggling” and may sound similar to “Illinois is struggling,” but… uh… they are alike in kind, but not in magnitude.

When they play Michigan: If Williams and Peters are out, Illinois has:

• Robinson, who weighs 190 pounds and whose other FCS offers were FIU and Coastal Carolina;
• Coran Taylor, a freshman whose only other offers were Miami (NTM) and Illinois State; and
• Cam Miller, a true walk-on.

That’s it. Those are the remaining quarterbacks listed on the roster.

Next game: vs. Michigan, noon, ABC (oh no ABC baby what is you doin’) (Illinois +21)

Penn State (5-0, 2-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Purdue, 35-7

The last time this many characters were killed off in Season 2

Recap: It’s not Penn State’s fault. You can only play the team in front of you. But the team in front of Penn State was only technically in front of Penn State; they didn’t stand in Penn State's way so much as they ‘laid prone while groaning softly’ in the way. Purdue was missing Elijah Sindelar, Rondale Moore, Markus Bailey, Lorenzo Neal, Tario Fuller, and about 37 other assorted pieces and parts. The remaining husk was… well, let’s just say we can be glad that Purdue doesn’t play Rutgers this year.

Penn State did as they should; they gunned it to a 28-0 lead in their first four possessions, then threw it in neutral and coasted down Mount ShouldaGonnaLouisville with their feet out the window and Seven Nation Army blasting from the stereo. Sean Clifford threw for 9.1 yards per attempt, the running backs finally had some sustained success (166 yards on 28 combined carries), and the the offense generally met with very little resistance. Defensively, Penn State sacked Jack Plummer 10 times for 86 yards, meaning Plummer’s 37 pass attempts netted 33 yards.

This team is as frightening as: A crucial, must-win game for Michigan that threatens to serve as a turning point for the entire Harbaugh Era... but against a team that figures to gain more than one rushing yard. Fear Level = 8.5

Michigan should worry about: Penn State is tied with Ohio State for #3 in the country in net yards per play (YPP gained minus YPP allowed). They’re outgaining their opposition by 3.6 yards per snap, which is almost as much as Northwestern is gaining per snap.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan hasn’t lost an afternoon game (i.e. a game that kicked earlier than 4:30 p.m.) in Happy Valley since 1995.

When they play Michigan: well shit

 

THIS JUST IN: Our game at Penn State (Oct. 19) will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. #GoBlue pic.twitter.com/Fzq3uwjVye

— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) October 7, 2019

Next game: @ Iowa, 7:30 p.m., ABC (PSU -4.5)

[AFTER THE JUMP: Turtlecoaster, and an update on The Rock]

Notre Dame (4-1)

Last week: Beat Bowling Green, 52-0

Recap: No recap. Bowling Green.

This team is as frightening as: Penn State, but at home rather than the pit of Tuddy Despair. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Notre Dame has allowed only 13 plays of 20+ yards, 7th-best in the country. This is a problem, as Michigan’s only sustainable offensive strategy thus far has been HEY NICO RUN THAT WAY FOR A WHILE THEN LOOK UP.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: For some reason, knower-and-seer-of-all SP+ is still skeptical of Notre Dame. Despite hamblasting two cupcake teams, soundly defeating quasi-cupcake Louisville and quasi-real-boy Virginia, and hanging close with Georgia, they are only #13 in the country, inches ahead of Iowa State and Baylor. Michigan is actually a very slight favorite over the Irish at the moment despite the whole deal Michigan has going on.

When they play Michigan: My kingdom for a Tommy Rees.

Next game: vs. USC, 7:30 p.m., NBC (ND -11)

Maryland (3-2, 1-1 B1G)

Last week: Won at Rutgers, 48-7

Recap: Grading on the ButRutgers Curve (that’s spelled with one ‘T’), this performance was fine. Not outstanding, and not the kind of thing that makes you think they have totally corrected course after last week’s defenestration at the hands of Penn State. But still fine.

Offensively the Terps put up 7.9 yards per play, though that was a combination of massively explosive plays and turtle-on-its-back flailing. On the positive side, they turned in:

• Four one-play TD drives of 80, 80, 42, and 2 yards;
• One 3-play 74 yard TD drive;
• One 13-play, 90 yard TD drive; and
• One 17-play, 72 yard drive that yielded no points

They also tacked on a 100-yard kickoff return. On the other, less dexterous hand, they also did this:

• Six 3-and-outs, totaling zero total yards
• One 5 play, -4 yard drive
• One 7 play, 14 yard drive

The Turtlecoaster has broken containment, and is now vacillating wildly WITHIN the game. Behold, the yards-per-play in Maryland’s various and sundry drives:

At this rate of decay, Maryland is going to start breaking down within individual plays.

This team is as frightening as: One of those disaster movies where a fundamental aspect of Earth starts to break down in a way that doesn’t really make sense. Like The Day After Tomorrow, 2012, or The Core. Oh man, The Core. “The core of the Earth, which weighs 700 million trillion tons, has stopped spinning in violation of every principle of physics… but we can restart it by driving some nukes down there.”

Usually entertaining, but often difficult to understand if you really try to follow the logic. Part of you says “uh, I took some science classes back in the day, and that doesn’t seem quite…” but the rest of you interjects, “SHHHHH shut up egghead they’re about to load the nukes into the Magma Submarine.” Fear Level = 4

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Josh Jackson suffered a naaaaasty-looking ankle injury in the second quarter, and while it is reportedly only a high ankle sprain, it appears to be Piggy Time.

Michigan should worry about: IT’S PIGGY TIME.

When they play Michigan: 88% of Maryland’s offensive plays will get absolutely blown to smithereens. The remaining 12% will decide the game.

Next game: @ Purdue, noon, BTN (Maryland -5)

Michigan State (4-2, 2-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Ohio State, 34-10

Recap: In the six game between 2011 and 2016, Michigan State and Ohio State played six close games, including some fantastic rock fights. Four of the games finished with scores of 10-7, 17-16, 17-14, and 17-16 and saw an average of 282 yards of total offense per team. And for one quarter, this had the look of a game that would follow a similar path. Ohio State had 16 yards of offense in the first quarter, and Michigan State had two turnovers and two punts.

In the second quarter, though, Ohio State accelerated out of rock-chuckin’ range, and Michigan State just couldn’t keep pace. The result was a third straight 20+ point loss to the Buckeyes. And while Michigan fans might look at a four-game losing streak to Ohio State with almost insane envy, and while losing to this team by 24 in Columbus at night is perfectly understandable, Ohio State Juju was one of the defining features of Michigan State’s run of success. Ohio State gave Michigan State several chances, and instead of a barn-burner-with-everyone-still-inside-the-barn like the recent past, the Buckeyes simply eased ahead, and the outcome didn’t seem in doubt once the score hit 17-7.

Sure enough, the old markers of Michigan State football are returning, one by one. This week’s addition: drops. Sparty has struggled with drops already this year — according to PFF, they have 23 on the season, most in the nation — and against Ohio State they dropped about seven balls, led by Darrell Stewart who dropped several likely first downs.

This team is as frightening as: Despite the foregoing, regret to inform you that Michigan State is no longer The Rock.

Don’t worry, Michigan State. This isn’t about anything YOU did. You have been perfectly rock-like, and have upheld the tradition of rockiness. 285 yards on 14 offensive drives? Rocktastic. Fewer than 20 offensive points for the seventh time in the last ten games? Rockarific. Missed a 27-yard field goal, meaning your senior kicker has now missed six of his last ten attempts? Extremely bouldersome.

No, it’s not you. It’s us. So, for the moment, we are a Rock Divided. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Michigan proooooooobably can’t replicate Ohio State’s offensive approach of “laser sounds and drawings of dinosaurs driving hover-tanks.”

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan State may not have any running backs left. Both Connor Heyward and La’Darius Jefferson have entered the transfer portal, leaving Michigan State with Elijah Collins — who looks pretty good — and then:

• True Freshman Anthony Williams, whose 13 carries against Power-5 teams have gained 15 yards.
• Junior Alante Thomas, who has 3 career carries for 7 yards.
• True Freshman Brandon Wright, who has zero career carries.

If Collins gets dinged up or hits a freshman wall, things could get ugly.

When they play Michigan: While I hate hyperbole (fact check: that may not be true), this game may be a last stand against an encroaching program darkness. Lose this game, and you’re staring down another 7-5 season, which would put you at 18-18 in conference play over the last four years. You’re losing seven defensive starters, six of whom probably rank among the ten best players on the team. You’re losing your three-year starting quarterback. Your recruiting has been mediocre, and is getting worse. And your staff isn’t getting any younger.

Beat Michigan, though, and you can grump against the dying of the light for a while longer, because as important as the Ohio State Juju may be, Michigan Juju will always be enough to keep a Spartan head coach in town as long as he chooses to stay.

Next game: @ Wisconsin, 3:30 p.m., BTN (MSU +10)

Indiana (3-2, 0-2 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye.

This team is as frightening as: Indiana, circa whenever. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Indiana is… good? They are currently #28 in SP+. They might be bowl-eligible by Halloween. Heck, they have a decent chance of being an 8+-win team; they have Rutgers, Maryland, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Purdue left, which gets them to 8 wins without having to beat Michigan or Penn State.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Normally playing a guaranteed “everything is stupid and Michigan wins” game is a curse when you’re playing Indiana. This year, we’d probably all take Stupid Win and run.

When they play Michigan: You know the drill.

Next game: vs. Rutgers, noon, BTN (IU -28)

 

Ohio State (6-0, 3-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Michigan State, 34-10

Recap:

Sure, in the remaining rounds against Michigan State, this version of Drago came out and was all “punchy punch punch smasheroo.” Still, it was nice to see him stumble for a brief moment.

This team is as frightening as: Getting punched in the face by a gigantic Russian dude while for some reason refusing to protect our face. Fear Level = 9.7

Michigan should worry about: Ohio State put up 323 yards rushing against a Michigan State team that hasn’t allowed that many yards to a non-OSU team in the entire Dantonio era. State also hadn’t allowed 6.6 yards per carry to a non-OSU team since they played the juggernaut led by Jeff George Jr. in 2016.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: No pain.

When they play Michigan: Why do you keep saying “no pain” right before the large Russian man punches my for-some-reason-undefended face. Are you not familiar with punching? Punching involves a lot of pain.

Next game: Bye

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Middle Tennessee State (2-3, 1-0 CUSA)

Last week: Beat Marshall, 24-13

Thanks, Google Image Search

Recap: Asher O’Hara amassed 337 total yards (261 passing at 8.7 YPA, 76 rushing at 4.5 YPA). So much grit.

Next game: @ Florida Atlantic, 4:00 p.m., ESPN+ (MTSU +10.5)

Army (3-2)

Last week: Lost to Tulane, 42-33

Any excuse to use this logo

Recap: Another week, another team having more success against the Army defense than Michigan. The Green Wave put up 525 yards at 7.1 yards per play, and posted 42 points in 12 drives. Tulane’s offense is surprisingly good this year (#25 in the country in YPP, #38 SP+ offense), but probably shouldn’t be 2.6 yards per play better than Michigan (especially when they were playing with a lead most of the game)

As if to rub salt in Michigan’s wounds, Army threw the ball 24 times for 170 yards against Tulane, which was more yards on fewer attempts than Shea Patterson against Iowa. It was the most passes Army has thrown in a game since 2009.

Next game: @ Western Kentucky, 7:00 p.m., Stadium (Army -4)

Wisconsin (5-0, 2-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Kent State, 48-0

Recap: Another 215 scrimmage yards and 5 touchdowns for Jonathan Taylor. He’s up to 859 total yards; if he continues this pace (and plays 14 games, which seems pretty likely), he’ll crack 2,400 yards. He’s also on pace to break Montee Ball’s Big Ten record of 40 touchdowns from scrimmage (rushing & receiving) in a season.

I still don’t think we know much about Wisconsin’s defense, because they haven’t played a single good offense. Michigan is the #66 SP+ offense, and that makes them the best offense Wisconsin has played… by 36 spots; their other opponents are ranked #102, #107, #114, and #125. Coming up, Michigan State’s rock-worthy offense is #56. Iowa is #54. So I guess they’re taking things up a notch in the next couple of weeks?

Next game: vs. Michigan State, 3:30, BTN (Wisconsin -10)

Rutgers (1-4, 0-3 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Maryland, 48-7

Recap: The well-wishers have gone home. The hastily-assembled low-res slideshows have been watched. It was time to clear the rubble and to start to rebuild.

Just kidding. It was time to light the rubble on fire, spread the ashes out, and make cinder angels (and yes, this would be the most productive and most entertaining ash-related activity in Piscataway in several years). Since last week, Raheem Blackshear and Artur Sitkowski have announced they are going to redshirt (presumably with the intention to transfer), and Texas Tech grad transfer McLane Carter medically retired. This leaves Rutgers with two scholarship quarterbacks: redshirt freshman and Boston College transfer Johnny Langan, and true freshman Cole Snyder. SP+ has Rutgers as a pick'em against Liberty, a two-touchdown-ish underdog to Illinois, and a "go home and get your shine box" against everyone else.

Next game: @ Indiana, noon, BTN (Rutgers +28)