The short version is I don't know anything. But I can't focus on UFR, and threw out a Neck Sharpies, and already updated my starts and snaps data for the year, so we might as well talk about it.

What's the evidence that Harbaugh is pursuing NFL jobs?

Credible reporters say so. Bruce Feldman reported "multiple sources close to Jim Harbaugh" believe he would take an NFL coaching job if it was offered. One source used the "done deal" phrasing.

Feldman is a guy we are pretty sure Harbaugh or at least his staff have a strong rapport with.

John U Bacon has a source who says it's serious, and has to do with frustration with college football:

Carolina Panthers beat reporters are pretty sure Harbaugh spoke with their owner.

That is more than enough smoke to take seriously. I do not believe these reporters would lie, or use sources who might lead them astray. Harbaugh is taking NFL calls.

[After THE JUMP: Evidence to the contrary, what does your heart tell you?]

What's the evidence that Harbaugh is staying at Michigan (you know, other than what he said a month ago)?

All circumstantial. The strongest one is that Harbaugh has an agent this time, and the contract he accepted after the 2020 season, which was reworked and extended last year, feels long past due for an upgrade.

Harbaugh's son is liking tweets that mock the media for reporting Harbaugh to NFL rumors.

Friend of Harbaugh Todd Anson has been critical of the media sharing the story, and while not 100% committal, believes Harbaugh would stay true to his word.

Anson also noted that last year it came out that Harbaugh had told recruits he was interesting in the NFL still, whereas this year he was telling them he plans to be at Michigan in 2023.

Kunkel's read on the situation might be a little pipe-dreamy, considering he also reported this:

Of all the reporting on this, the thing I have the hardest time believing is Jim Harbaugh told someone he feared competition.

C'mon Seth, I know you talk to people, or they talk to you. Don't you have any idea what's going to happen?

I'm as curious as anyone, but I also don't think it's worth anyone's time for me to badger people. I'm not a breaking news guy, and if I suddenly fancied myself one I'm hardly likely to become a better one than the extraordinary professionals who cover Michigan.

I thought he promised he was staying.

Here's Jim Harbaugh to Mitch Albom after flying to Minneapolis last year not expecting to be back:

“There was a tugging at me that I was once that close to a Super Bowl and I didn’t get it. Some NFL jobs came open. I was contacted by the (Minnesota) Vikings. For better or for worse, it was something I wanted to explore. I went in thinking, ‘I’m gonna have 100 percent conviction on this, and if they (Minnesota) have 100 percent conviction on this, then it’s something I’m gonna do.” …

“I called Warde (Manuel, the Michigan athletic director) and I asked him if he wanted me to be the head coach. And he said, ‘Yes, 100 percent.’ And I said, OK then. That’s what I want to do.'

“And I told him, ‘Warde, this will not be a reoccurring theme every year. This was a one-time thing.”

Here's Jim Harbaugh to Tom VanHaaren as NFL jobs started to open up last December:

"That time of the year type of speculation, but I think no man knows the future," Harbaugh said. "But I think that people that think we've done a good job and are pleased with the job that we've done here at Michigan, they're going to be very happy to learn that we will be back enthusiastically coaching the Wolverines in 2023. And for those people that don't approve of the job we've done or would rather see somebody else coaching here, I think they'll be most likely disappointed to learn we'll be back coaching the Wolverines and in 2023." …

"It's really biblical, no man knows the future. I can't make vows of what's going to happen or what's not going to happen," Harbaugh said. "If you don't mind, I ask you a question. I mean, there's tremendous coaches right here in our league: Ryan Day, Greg Schiano, Bret Bielema, Jeff Brohm. I could go on and on, P.J. Fleck.

"I think, the job that they've done, they deserve to be asked the same question."

The headline we all took from this conversation was "Will be enthusiastically coaching the Wolverines in 2023." That was enough to skip "I can't make vows" and "no man knows the future." It is a completely fair reading of this statement. It is also completely fair to read "This will not be a reoccurring theme every year. This was a one-time thing," as a promise not to slam the football program into a roadblock while he interviews for outs a second time.

What jobs are being discussed?

For the moment, the Broncos, the Panthers, and maybe the Colts. That is also the entire list of open NFL jobs at the moment, but more will open up after the Super Bowl.

Colin Cowherd reported that as of yesterday afternoon the Broncos offer is for $20 million/year for Harbaugh, which is more than twice what the average NFL coach makes, and twice what the richest NCAA coaches make. Cowherd also said Sean Payton is the #1 choice (in the whole market), and would be offered "mid-20s" IE a lot more.

People remember Harbaugh on the Colts. Harbaugh is in the Ring of Honor (and Marlin Jackson is not, which feels weird). But NFL people think that situation—with a meddlesome owner and a GM with a strong fence around his territory—is too like the 49ers.

Has Jim Harbaugh slammed the football program into a roadblock while he interviews for outs a second time?

Yes. He also can remove it at any time.

Is this going to hurt the program?

It is unless there are stronger assurances given. Since 24 hours of reporting have already elapsed without Harbaugh shooting the speculation down, it's quite clear now that last year wasn't a "one-time thing." Anyone who took Harbaugh's recommitment to Michigan last year at his word now has to doubt it. If we go through the entire NFL carousel again and get the same recommitment, nobody's going to trust it.

There is a way to end the speculation: work out out a new contract with Michigan that has the kind of buyout that secures both sides to each other. Right now that buyout is $3 million, which is nothing to an NFL team. Michigan has an equally paltry buyout if they wanted to end the relationship, which seemed wise at the time. Two years later, things are bit different.

What does Michigan do if he leaves?

I can't begin to answer that now. If they go internal, Moore is the obvious choice, but none of these guys has ever been a college head coach.

What do you think is happening?

There are two scenarios that fit the information before us.

SCENARIO 1: HARBAUGH WANTS BACK IN THE NFL

After 2020, and the subsequent contract negotiations with Michigan, it is entirely plausible that Harbaugh decided he's going to take the next NFL ladder that comes his way. There wasn't going to be one in January 2021, and in January 2022 he met with the Vikings expecting to have the job and came away empty. His assurances were necessary to do his job—after that he couldn't say "Yeah, I'm going to the next NFL team that takes me"—but pointedly did not come with a contract renegotiation that would have made those assurances more than words. As soon as the 2022 season was over, Harbaugh let his people know he's interested in NFL jobs again, and has been fielding calls. If/when one offers what he's looking for (probably a level of personnel control) he's gone.

SCENARIO 2: HARBAUGH IS RENEGOTIATING WITH AN AGENT

As I understand it, this is the first time Harbaugh's using an agent—the 2015 deal was done with Hackett at an airport bar and included things like what color the yellow has to be. The 2020 deal was just Manuel and Harbaugh. Agents know to do things like put it out there that James Franklin's name has been linked to the USC and LSU openings. If Michigan's negotiating a contract with Harbaugh's agent right now, that agent is telling Harbaugh don't deny anything. If NFL teams call to discuss their positions, and it gets reported that those teams called, and that puts pressure on Michigan to give Harbaugh whatever he desires, that's an agent's job well done. If fans have a conniption fit in the meantime, that's their problem, so long as this gets done before it damages recruiting.

Given Harbaugh left himself an out in his statement in December, and the tenor of reporting on this, and the absurdity of the numbers being thrown out there for NFL coaching jobs, I would guess it's 60% the top one.

What do you think will happen?

One aspect of this that might be playing a role is the market for football talent and the market for coaching talent are suddenly coming from the same pool. Yes, this was already true to a degree—when Alabama paid a guy named Tosh over $1 million/year it wasn't because Tosh was keeping all of it. But the way NIL is working out is donors are being diverted to collectives that in turn pay the players a salary. Those are the same donors who've often been called upon to soak up big coaching contracts (and buyouts). Michigan hasn't had any big asks lately, but nobody in college is in a position to throw insane money at the coach right now with so many new hands to feed.

Another aspect is that Harbaugh is 58 and being a college football coach is much harder, if more secure, than being an NFL coach. The older he gets the harder that gets, so long-term security is no longer top of mind. If Harbaugh's ever going to win a Super Bowl, his window to start building that team is the next five years. If he's ever going to have the leverage to demand the kind of control and trust he wants to do that, it's now. Michigan may be a favorite to win the Big Ten and return to the Playoff in 2023, but that's an extraordinarily hard thing to do even if you're good enough.

Harbaugh might also feel that he's leaving Michigan in a good place (2nd base at the very least). Ideally, were it his intention to go back to the NFL, he'd have lined up a successor on staff and spent a year pointing to that guy. Also ideally Michigan would be preparing for a national championship right now instead of huddled around waiting for coach to tell us if he wants to be here. If it turns out he does, this time I'm going to need a second source.