Camp Chatter Hot Takes
Previously: offense, defense & special teams.
Many people are saying things about Michigan's fall camp. Some are coaches, some are insiders, some are men wearing shoes as hats. Some of the things are true, some are maybe a bit misleading, some verge on balderdash. Let's evaluate things that people are saying for truthiness.
The quarterback battle is still up in the air
[Eric Upchurch]
Thing: Nobody has ventured a strong opinion on Michigan's starter. You occasionally get a weak assertion that someone feels like a leader that's immediately followed with caveats. Tellingly, those assertions are split close to down the middle between the two main contenders.
Thing react: The coaches almost certainly have a good idea who it's going to be, but I believe that the race is tight enough that it might get overturned late and that there's genuine uncertainty amongst insiders. I'd strongly prefer an answer by now. I mean, it'll be fine since Harbaugh, but it's more likely that Michigan has one good QB than two.
Chris Evans!
Thing: Can't throw a rock on a message board without hitting an insider swearing up and down that Chris Evans is the truth. This has bled through to honest to God press conferences as well.
Thing react: It's tough to find snaps for Evans in an offense that's going to run a metric ton of tight ends onto the field along with Grant Perry and Jabrill Peppers. One thing Evans has going for him is Peppers's tendency to be the best at everything all the time: they'll want to keep his snaps down until they really need him. Evans is another spread H-back type. He'll slot into the Peppers role against the pushovers.
Still feeling like Evans hype is real but a year too early.
Ben Bredeson!
Thing: Ben Bredeson has been promoted into a bonafide 50/50 competition for the left tackle spot. Also impossible to throw rock on message board without hitting man enthused about Bredeson. He was the BTN's primary takeaway from their visit to practice, which says something about something.
Thing react: If you made me guess this instant I'd say he's the starting LT. I'm not entirely enthused about this either, but Bredeson is closer to the instant-start five star zone than Mason Cole was. Cole was the #127 recruit on the composite. Bredeson was #39. Bredeson's also 20 pounds heavier than Cole was as a freshman. He was the only OL at the loaded UA game who could annoy Rashan Gary, so maybe he is ready to take on mortals.
Cole managed to survive as a freshman. Bredeson can probably do better. The ceiling is probably something like Erik Magnuson's completely average 2015.
The freshman receivers are good
[Bryan Fuller]
Thing: Michigan has already lost two of their five WR recruits, but initial reports on the three guys still on campus have been universally positive. All three are reputed to be explosive and dedicated.
Thing react: [sits and points at their recruiting profiles smugly]
None of these guys are going to play much this year, but if one or two emerges even a little bit that will ease everyone's mind about the 2017 receiving corps. I'm not worried. They can find three guys out of Ways, Harris, Perry, and the freshmen.
This defensive line is just… I mean…
Thing: All the usual suspects have come in for praise; the guys who have not been mentioned are guys who are taken for granted as really good players like Ryan Glasgow and Chris Wormley. Rashan Gary is mostly described with a blank look, a shake of the head, and a laugh because he is everything he's supposed to be. Chase Winovich and even Matt Godin are getting talked up as contributors.
Thing react: Yes to all of it. Godin suffered late last year because he played next to the third string NT and teams could double him with impunity; before that there was a period where he was keeping guys like Wormley and Henry on the bench to an extent. He's a good player and will see snaps. Charlton should blow up with increased playing time and his still-excellent upside.
Nobody says anything about the linebackers
Thing: Aside from the occasional direct response when a coach gets asked about them at a press conference, there is total radio silence about the inside linebackers. Brown keeps talking about redshirt junior walk-on Mike Wroblewski.
Thing react: I wouldn't take that as a sign either way. Linebacker play is difficult to get a read on. The last four years of Joe Bolden spring hype that petered out in to just okay play have made me suspicious of anything people say in this department.
One glance at the depth chart is enough to see that Wroblewski is going to play some. After the starters there is very little aside from freshmen. Devin Bush will play; Elysee Mbem-Bosse and Devin Gil are both very raw. Linebacker has more depth concerns than any position on the roster other than maybe safety.
David Long!
Thing: David Long is very fast and takes notes and is Jehu Chesson, cornerback edition.
Thing react: If Long remains healthy he is a lock. He's going to play this year and start in 2017 and that's going to be very little dropoff from Jourdan Lewis. Maybe not immediately, but by the time he's a junior definitely.
Backup safeties can play
Thing: Praise all available deities. Angry Michigan Safety Hating God seems to be focusing on receivers who might get moved to safety these days—in the last year he's hewed down Brian Cole, Brad Hawkins, and Ahmir Mitchell—and spared the actual DBs. As long as we're keeping Chris Evans on offense that trend can continue.
Tyree Kinnel and Khaleke Hudson are both getting plugged as definite contributors this year and solid replacements down the line. Neither is much of a surprise—Kinnel had a strong spring and Hudson is our favorite non-Gary recruit in this class—but not having either guy derailed is important for 2016 and critical for beyond. Josh Metellus has even come in for the occasional mention; hitting on him would be very nice.
Thing react: I expected to hear these things, but actually hearing them is a step on the road to having a functioning secondary this year.
Most of these things are about 2017 more than 2016
Thing: The camp chatter glosses over big swathes of the team because you don't need to be told about them.
Thing react: Gonna be a good year.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:15 PM ^
Those H-back spread plays designed for Peppers involve ten other players as well, and they're different enough from the rest of the offense that there's probably a huge benefit to practicing and becoming great at them with Evans early in the year before we rely on them with Peppers late in the year.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:15 PM ^
If the hype that we're hearing about Evans is real, the coaches will find a way get him a good amount of snaps and touches.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:17 PM ^
They were very experienced last year, and very medioce. Overall our defense is going to be outstanding, but if there's a trip-up anywhere it starts and finishes at LB.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:22 PM ^
but it's unclear any of our linebackers sees a single opponent offensive lineman the whole year. I'm not sure "clean" sums up how it's going to be.
Rob
August 25th, 2016 at 1:23 PM ^
Our defense was damn good last year with medicre linebackers and this year's defensive line should be better than last year. Worst case we have the same level of play as last year, I'll take that behind our defensive line and with our secondary. NEXT year is the year I'll worry about the LB's.
August 25th, 2016 at 2:35 PM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 3:37 PM ^
August 26th, 2016 at 7:53 AM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 2:24 PM ^
If Durkin were still our DC I'd be worried about the LBs. Gedeon wasn't good enough to get a lot of snaps instead of Bolden and McCray has been injured so much that he's very inexperienced The change to Brown changes things so dramatically that I see the position as something to wonder about, not to worry about.
August 25th, 2016 at 2:39 PM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 1:20 PM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 1:52 PM ^
I'm not sure it's that binary as to good or no good. Even if you agree that p(2 good) > p(0 good), it's hard not to think that think that p(2 meh) > p(2 good).
Also, it makes me happy that this is the kind of sports comment that could only be left on MGoBlog.
August 25th, 2016 at 2:21 PM ^
Yeah, you're definitely right about binary vs continuous scales of goodness. As I mentioned above, I think we're ultimately reasoning about what level of quality a tie at the top is most likely to occur at. I'd say that this is somewhere above Meh and below Throw God. The bit on binary ratios is more in response to Brian's original reasoning -- I just wanted to assert the point that prior probability ratios between tied and non-tied scenarios aren't really germane here. We know that we have a ~tied scenario, so we should be distinguishing among scenarios in which that condition holds.
And yes, I'm just glad that Rashan Gary is around to make sure that I don't get wedgied and stuffed in a locker by SEC message boarders.
August 25th, 2016 at 3:07 PM ^
Cosign. Good talk.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:24 PM ^
I didn't realize this until looking at this picture. Surprised. Looks like more than 4"
August 25th, 2016 at 1:25 PM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 9:35 PM ^
He has a ton of moxie and bigger than JD. I will boldly say better than JD in one regard - Long is more of a playmaker with a nose for the ball and ability to score from the DB position. Long enjoys baiting the QB. JD has made himself into a great technician, so far more consistent in bump-and-run at this point. He would start on 90% of P5 teams on day 1.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:25 PM ^
Until seeing that picture, I don't think I ever grasped how much bigger Speight is than JOK.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:28 PM ^
on the field at the same time in an empty set along with Butt / Chesson and Darboh ? Good luck defending that
August 25th, 2016 at 1:47 PM ^
Damn! This year could be a LOT of fun!
August 25th, 2016 at 5:33 PM ^
That would be asking one of Peppers or Evans to block. That's probably only feasible if Peppers is a wildcat qb.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:30 PM ^
Also, am I the only one wondering why Evans just doesn't get plain 'ol RB carries? He's not huge, but he has enough heft to do it. Even in a power offense, your RBs don't have to be bowling balls. The only reason he played so much slot his senior year in high school is because Ben Davis was loaded and had another kid who was also a great RB. So Evans could play slot, so they found a way to get a lot of talent on the field. Won't happen this year, but I would like to see Evans in 2017 get some plain 'ol RB run. Brings an explosiveness and elusiveness to that spot we haven't seen out of UM.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:38 PM ^
I'm guessing that until his blocking is where it needs to be, most of Evans' RB carries will be at the end of blow outs.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:30 PM ^
You can put the Bredeson as the starter thing to bed. Straight from the horse's mouth today: Newsome is going to get the start.
August 25th, 2016 at 2:19 PM ^
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August 25th, 2016 at 2:26 PM ^
Source?
August 25th, 2016 at 2:38 PM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 2:53 PM ^
Harbaugh spoke at an event today and said it will be Newsome. He also talked a fair bit about how much he loves Evans. He gave himself a "tip of the cap" because he is the one, as opposed to the other coaches, who identified Evans as "the guy" during the recruiting process. He also listed the "top 3" freshmen as, in no order, Evans, Gary, and Bush Jr.
August 25th, 2016 at 3:31 PM ^
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August 25th, 2016 at 3:40 PM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 5:46 PM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 1:35 PM ^
So hyped I'm about to start a Blyve just to make sure we're all in game shape for the liveblog.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:42 PM ^
I think the saying would go more like:
It's more likely we have 0 good quarterbacks than 2 good quarterbacks.
August 25th, 2016 at 2:17 PM ^
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August 25th, 2016 at 5:47 PM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 1:43 PM ^
Gonna be a good year.
I'm still hoping for a great, playoff- and NC-type year. Honestly the news about the OL out of camp has been the best it could reasonably be, in my opinion. It was obvious that Newsome was not great, Bob. Hearing that Bredeson after a couple of weeks of college ball is as good as Newsome, well, that's super. Doesn't mean we'll be great at the position, but we knew that. Previously the best we could hope for was "maybe LT won't wreck our season." Now, we might be ok. Ok is a definite upgrade from Newsome's spring game.
I also put more stock in the Wilson Speight positivity than Brian. It's been going on long enough. So I've changed my bet; at this point, I'd bet Speight starts.
I don't think it will be that hard for Evans to get snaps. I think Brian's spot on about him getting the Jabrill snaps vs. pushovers, but that's a fair amount of snaps. And if he does well, I bet he'll get half of Jabrill's snaps against the big boys, too.
This freshmen class is looking like it could be truly special. With them panning out, this could end up a truly special year.
August 25th, 2016 at 5:37 PM ^
Why put the Jabrill snaps on tape if only to get Evans touches? I'd just give him regular RB or slot touches.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:44 PM ^
We know both have strong arms. My question is which one can drop dimes to a streaking Chesson, Harris, or McDoom?
Being able to take the top off of defenses with accurate deep balls is the key to having the offense to win it all this year. LT concerns aside, I think we need to have the QB who can most accurately complete throws in the >25 yard range.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:49 PM ^
Lewis Taco Wormley Glasgow Gary Peppers Stribling
I don't think jet lag is going to matter.
I don't see how their O-line will matter, either.
August 26th, 2016 at 7:37 AM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 1:47 PM ^
what makes sense is to use him instead of Peppers on offense. Nothing against Peppers offensive abilities, but given how critical he is to the D, I'm always terrified that he's going to take a hit while on O and get injured. If we have another guy that is thriving in that ATH role, I wouldn't mind Peppers being LESS of a 2-way guy this year.
August 25th, 2016 at 3:12 PM ^
I feel the same.
Also -- there are only so many plays that you can put in for a guy who spends his time on the other side of the ball. Harbaugh seems pretty clever but I wonder if they can practice and effectively execute more than about a dozen plays with Peppers.
August 25th, 2016 at 1:54 PM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 2:13 PM ^
So far, nothing definitely bad coming out of camp, but I don't like that O'Korn isn't a clear starter yet. I think that we know what we've got with Speight -- "game manager". I'm always very "meh" on game manager types. O'Korn unquestionably has more talent and he has more playing time under his belt. If he hasn't separated himself yet, then that means he hasn't shored up the decision-making issues that caused him to get benched in his sophomore year.
August 25th, 2016 at 2:18 PM ^
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August 25th, 2016 at 2:30 PM ^
No -- he was a stud recruit with good height and arm strength, and he won a few games on his own.
August 25th, 2016 at 8:32 PM ^
I guess my point too is we don't know that he is just a "game manager". If he processes stuff quicker than everyone else and is accurate then I could care less if he has the Ryan Mallet arm.
I don't care who starts. I just know JMFH will pick the best guy....
PS- It's good to know we have more than one capable qb on the roster to lead this team.
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August 25th, 2016 at 8:45 PM ^
Agree with this. People are down on Speight because of last year, but I thought the Minnesota game was actually pretty good, all things considered.
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