1/12/2021 – Michigan 77, Wisconsin 54 – 11-0, 6-0 Big Ten

It doesn't seem real.

This isn't the usual mopey woe-is-we Michigan fan garbage. Set aside backslides from previous teams in various sports. Set aside emotional states entirely. Just focus on what usually happens when relatively equal, good basketball teams butt heads. The results are not this, literally ever in the history of college basketball:

Michigan is the 1st team in college basketball history to beat three ranked opponents in a row by at least 19 points. https://t.co/f7MqH09SjM

— Larry Lage (@LarryLage) January 13, 2021

This doesn't even cover it, really, since all of these games saw Michigan leap out to even more absurd leads than they finished with.

It doesn't seem real because Wisconsin has gone 18 years without getting clobbered by 30, and the only reason they didn't in this game was a stirring comeback after they were down 40. Wisconsin has lost a total of four games by 20+ in a decade. Michigan hadn't beaten a top-ten opponent this badly since 1987. If you're watching Michigan basketball games these days and you don't wonder about your sanity, you have far too much experience with psychedelic mushrooms. Nate Reuvers's face is melting. Literally? Metaphorically? Who can tell anymore?

Michigan has this effect not only on observers but also on their opponents. Early in the second half Tyler Wahl went Full Carlton:

What
The hell
Was that pic.twitter.com/vf6CFeBRna

— Due# (@JDue51) January 13, 2021

This was one of the more stupefying plays I've seen in the last decade of college basketball; at the same time it also fit right in there. Wisconsin entered the game on pace for the best turnover rate in the history of Kenpom; late in the first half Greg Gard called timeout because Franz Wagner's ghostly appendages had emerged from Badger sternums far too often for his taste.

An initial flurry of ferociously blocked post-ups led to a flurry of—uh—wide open three-pointers I was certain would go down. Once those didn't fall, the ancien regime of Wisconsin basketball devolved into a chaotic mess of contested two-pointers, turnovers, and guillotines. Wisconsin is a team of thousand-year-old vampires executing gloriously regimented plays; fifteen minutes in they looked like a Busby Berkeley movie after it got hit by a nuclear bomb.

You have to focus. You have to focus on it and assure yourself it's real. Michigan's third-most-common lineup over a five-game stretch including three ranked opponents and a feisty, weird Maryland team is the Kenpom Kids.

That ain't real! Nobody can tell me that's real! This is one of those prestige television episodes where the protagonist is unjustly confined in a mental institution, except it's completely awesome! No I will not take your drugs, Doctor Butthole, this is rad!

--------------------------------------------------------------------

The Matthew Loves Ball highlight reel we use for clips, like most other highlight reels, is almost exclusively focused on buckets. Blocks will show up, as will critical end of game possessions that end up empty. Misses are excised in the name of time. This game's highlight reel includes all of the last 49 seconds of the first half, in which no buckets are scored:

First Chaundee Brown forces Trice to give it up, then denies him on a dribble handoff. When Wisconsin gets it back to their tough-shot maker with ten seconds on the clock, Trice… gives it up to Tyler Wahl. Cheap foul on Wagner, fine.

The second sequence features Brad Davison trying to drive past Mike Smith; Davis slides over and Davison has to try to fit between a couple of closing doors. Smith gets his chest back to the front of Davison, and Davison humps up a shot through Smith that doesn't get over the rim. The wild rebound bounces off Brown.

The third sequence: Livers and Brown switch off, then switch off again on Trice. Livers cuts off a rim cut from Ford, and with the clock ticking down Brown comes over to double. Ford fumbles the ball into his feet, and Wisconsin doesn't get a shot up.

The bench erupts onto the court when the horn sounds. The announcers are flabbergasted. The halftime crew stares blankly into the camera for 15 straight minutes, unsure of the implications of such a display. It must be befriended lest it destroy us all. By the numbers, Michigan's offense is better than its defense.

[After THE JUMP: GUMBZILLAAAAAA]

BULLETS

HOLY SHIT Y'ALL. That all this bullet is.

NOTE: I have been to football games at Auburn and Georgia, so I can say y'all.

hhyaaaarrrrrr its arms never stop [Campredon]

Fun with absurd numbers. Here are some tempo free stats for you:

• Michigan is now 1st nationally in 2PT D after holding Wisconsin to 30% from the field.
• Their 2PT D improves(!) in Big Ten play by a point.
• They are fifth in FTAs allowed while having the best two-point D in America.
• Their FTA allowed rate drops(!) five points in conference play.
• Franz Wagner has top ten block and steal rates in B10 play; he also has a 136 ORTG.

Also in Franz:

I still remember that Franz Wagner recorded more steals than turnovers in his only full pro season with ALBA Berlin, which seemed notable to me at the time.

This year, he's, so far, not only doing it with steals but also with blocks. 14 blocks, 14 steals and 11 turnovers.

— 7 Foot Schnitzel (@7_Ft_Schnitzel) January 13, 2021

It is now common to look at a Wagner box score that has a bunch of stuff in the block and steal columns (1 and 4 in this game) and think to yourself "I thought it was more than that."

Post-ups: no. Michigan must have prepped their guards for the inevitable Wisconsin post-ups, because all Wisconsin attempts were soundly defeated. Reuvers got the first opportunity and got blocked by Isaiah Livers, who's four inches shorter than him. 

Mike Smith holding up against Davison was even more of a size mismatch but Smith was able to avoid getting bodied under the rim and forced tough shots. Low man wins?

dunk [Campredon]

And then, a mismatch. Livers followed up the post denial on Reuvers with a circle cut for a dunk that Reuvers could not keep up on. Total Wisconsin minutes with both 5s on the floor: 3.

About those three-pointers. Michigan was somewhat fortunate that Wisconsin only hit 32% of their copious looks. They were particularly fortunate that Reuvers, who's currently scuffling badly, went 0/3 on wide open looks and ended up turning down more after he'd missed a couple. Except for one missed switch, Michigan did do a good job containing Trice in the competitive section of the game. He got his long after the game was decided.

I do think there's a different script to this game where UW bigs hit some early threes and establish themselves a threat and things are much more touch-and-go for the duration.

The usual(?) from Mike Smith. Smith was superbly accurate as a shooter, ran the offense well, and had an unfortunate number of turnovers. During the competitive section of the game I was pretty frustrated with him because he had a series of decisions that resulted either in tough shots or turnovers.

On the other hand, he was the primary defender on Davison and Davison finished with two points on eight shot equivalents. Smith was able to body up on the early, inevitable post touch, and subsequent drives from Davison and Trice against Smith saw Smith in great position to force the opposition to finish through him.

I don't want to get ahead of myself, but if Wagner goes to the NBA there will be a rotation slot for a returning senior. I'd be happy with any of Brooks, Brown, or Smith; I'd imagine that Smith is the most likely because Brown will get enough NBA interest to go and Brooks has plenty of high-major experience. Smith probably isn't going to be of major interest to high-level European teams and hasn't had the experience of a major conference year with actual fans. Getting him back would be a major boon to a team that looks super talented, but also super young next year.

Aleem Ford: [Campredon]

This is not a Josh Christopher slam. This is about Chaundee Brown. On the podcast one of my Fuegobox Hot Takes™ was something along the lines of "I'd rather have Chaundee Brown than Josh Christopher." Fuegobox Hot Takes™ are supposed to be plausible but, you know, hot. Not accurate. Verging on accurate.

This take is getting less hot. I think I'm at the point where I'm willing to argue that I would not swap Brown for Christopher straight-up if you offered me that deal right now. Christopher is a much better offensive prospect, but he provides a bunch of stuff Michigan evidently doesn't need (isolation shot creation) and is struggling from three. Brown is knocking down threes at a 40% clip.

On the defensive end, Christopher is a work in progress while Brown is a 6'5" shutdown machine. Also Brown comes off the bench without complaint and is a lunatic effort cornerstone for a Michigan team with amazing culture. Since both guys are effectively one-and-dones the choice is clear.

no sale [Campredon]

Fun with flops. Basketball refereeing continues to improve. The combination of the restricted circle and verticality made straight-up no-foul contests the best option at the rim, erasing Duke under-the-basket charges and encouraging players to actually go up instead of standing with their arms behind their back like soccer players in a free-kick wall.

This year there is a clear emphasis on not calling garbage flops:

The whistle after this was probably a flop warning issued to Wisconsin—the announce team, stuck at home, didn't get a clear shot of a ref making the GET UP FLOPPER motion and never mentioned the mysterious interruption. This is far from an outlier. Most Big Ten games feature an attempt to draw a floppy charge that either gets called a block or induces the warning.

The flop penalty is so light (first a warning, afterwards one-shot, no-personal class B techs) that it functions mostly as a public shaming device. Thus the motion refs use to call it. But it seems to be working. Brad Davison only tried it once, and was openly frustrated when his attempt was ignored:

The game of basketball does not improve if that's anywhere near a call. It is excellent that the rate of OH CUMONG charge calls has plummeted this year.

Bench mobbery. This is more appropriate for a massive comeback but it's good to know that the bench has this club in their bag should that situation ever arise:

Things seem to be going pretty good pic.twitter.com/M4YgOqQ3HU

— Due# (@JDue51) January 13, 2021

Wisconsin takes! I have perused a couple message boards.

It's to Davison's credit that he did not do this. I believe he is a reformed character, and look forward to him whanging Tom Izzo in the pingle-pangles.