Big Ten Reset Ranks Very Incomplete Rosters, Part Four
Previously: Part One (Illinois-Minnesota), Part Two (Nebraska-Wisconsin), Part Three (ranking 8-14)
The rankings so far:
14. Minnesota (Tier VI)
13. Penn State (Tier VI)
12. Rutgers (Tier VI)
11. Wisconsin (Tier V)
10. Iowa (Tier V)
9. Nebraska (Tier IV)
8. Illinois (Tier IV)
I have to begin this post with an apology. When putting together my tiers, I... uh... forgot Northwestern. I do not, in fact, believe that the Wildcats will shoot into the top half of the Big Ten. I'm sorry to the readers for the omission. I also want to state that this isn't an apology to Northwestern basketball for reasons I shouldn't need to get into.
sorry, also not sorry
Let's take care of their section, fix these rankings, and get on to the real top half of the conference.
Northwestern. The good news is Chris Collins' squad returns most of their production. The bad news is that they're mostly the same team that wasn't very good last year. Once opponents got the scout on Northwestern's revamped five-out offense, which Michigan laid the blueprint for shutting down, they were cooked. They should improve by virtue of player development and familiarity in the system but I'm not convinced their team experience will translate to as many wins as Torvik's early projections, which have them 8th in the Big Ten.
Room for movement? I'm not seeing much. The spot where Northwestern had an unexpected loss—wing Miller Kopp transferring to Indiana—is where they have an incoming four-star freshman.
Alright, let's try this again:
14. Minnesota (Tier VI)
13. Penn State (Tier VI)
12. Rutgers (Tier VI)
11. Wisconsin (Tier V)
10. Northwestern (Tier V)
9. Iowa (Tier V)
8. Nebraska (Tier IV)
7. Illinois (Tier IV)
Much better. Back to our regularly scheduled good teams.
[After THE JUMP]
Tier III: Bouncing Back
MSU still has a lot of options up front [Campredon]
6. Michigan State. I'd love to say it'll be last season all over again. Unfortunately, there's too much talent coming in with five-star Max Christie, four-stars Jaden Akins and Pierre Brooks, and top transfer Tyson Walker joining the program. Tom Izzo will have a nice mix of young stars and game-tested veterans, plus he no longer can try to make Thomas Kithier and Foster Loyer happen (or Rocket Watts, for better or worse). Making the tournament shouldn't be a huge struggle this time.
Room for movement? The Spartans have a couple scholarships left. They may want to add another true center to help out Marcus Bingham and Mady Sissoko, but pretty much anyone they bring in would risk upsetting a player they want in the rotation. There's room for five-star 2022 commit Emoni Bates if he wants to reclassihahahahahhahahahahaha almost made it through that sentence.
5. Indiana. Mike Woodson has set himself up for immediate success, which was far from a guarantee when he took over the remains of Archie Miller's program. He convinced several players, including star center Trayce Jackson-Davis and former five-star guard Khristian Lander, to come back from either the draft process or the transfer portal. IU picked up a few impact transfers and touted recruit Tamar Bates. In a few weeks, they went from a blank slate to one of the best mixes of talent and experience in the conference.
Room for movement? The rotation appears mostly set but the Hoosiers, like so many teams, could use another big man from the transfer market.
Tier II: Contending
if EJ Liddell is back, the chase is on [Campredon]
4. Maryland. Assuming Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins come back to school after getting their pre-draft evaluations, the Terps project to be a better and more versatile team than last season, when everyone in their rotation was almost literally the same height. Two heavily pursued transfers, Rhode Island point guard Fatts Russell and Georgetown center Qudus Wahab, should step right into the starting lineup and help this team avoid some matchup-determined losses. I love the idea of Donta Scott as a bully-ball four and occasional small-ball five.
Room for movement? If either Ayala or Wiggins stays in the draft, the lack of wing scorers could push the Terps down to the middle of the conference. Otherwise, they should comfortably land in the top half of the league.
3. Ohio State. While the Buckeyes are still waiting on NBA decisions from EJ Liddell and Duane Washington Jr., neither of whom Michigan fans would be sad to see go, they're expected to be back in the fold. Kyle Young, quietly one of the most valuable players in the Big Ten last season, is back for a sixth year, and they swiped one of the better perimeter defenders in the conference from Penn State in Jamari Wheeler. There are some concerns at the point guard spot without CJ Walker but Washington and Justice Sueing being able to function as lead ballhandlers mitigates them.
Room for movement? Losing either Liddell or Washington would be a huge blow. Liddell is the linchpin of the team on both ends of the floor. Washington is their proven bucket-getter and top playmaker. Not having one of them prevents this team from contending.
2. Purdue. A trendy conference championship pick because they bring back almost every contributor if big man Trevion Williams, as expected, pulls his name out of the draft, and added a couple top-60 freshmen. While postseason success eluded the Boilermakers, they were a very low-key Big Ten and NCAA four-seed with a less experienced and talented version of this roster in 2020-21. Jaden Ivey looks like a future NBA player and could push Purdue towards the country's elite teams with a breakthrough sophomore season. Matt Painter is a really good coach. There's a lot to like here.
Room for movement? Losing Williams to the pros would knock this squad down a couple spots. He's not only a high-level scorer, he's also one of the better interior playmakers in the country.
Tier I: The National Championship Contender
coming through [Campredon]
1. Michigan. Year two Hunter Dickinson, super senior Eli Brooks, and Big Minute Brandon Johns are joined by the nation's #1 recruiting class, which only got more #1-y as senior season evaluations came in. Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate are five-stars who'll contribute immediately, and it's safe to bet at least two of the Collins/Bufkin/Barnes trio also play a big part in the rotation. Meanwhile, Juwan Howard looks poised to add one of the best players left on the transfer market, Coastal Carolina point guard DeVante' Jones. No other team in the conference can match Michigan's talent and I have a great deal of faith in the coaching staff to get the most out of that talent.
Room for movement? Sorry, Franz Wagner isn't happening. This is still the best team in the league. Get Jones in the fold and set the over/under at 1.5 banners.
I like that over/under on the addition of banners.
There are a few other damn banners that need re-hung as well.
Take the Under.
Seriously.
April 29th, 2021 at 11:58 PM ^
Does Holtmann get any banners for making the tournament? No? So he's still at 0 at OSU then.
Jesus, even Harbaugh won a division title in his 4th year. Holtmann has zero championships in his four years
Let me know when Holtmann hits the Over on 1.5 wins in an NCAA Tournament with OSU.
April 30th, 2021 at 11:38 AM ^
I assume banners can be
Big Ten regular season champions
Conference tournament champions
Final Four banner
National championship
1.5 over under sounds about right. They're looking like the best team in the conference. Seems like most of the conference is going to be weaker next year and Michigan could be stronger. I'd say realistic chances for each banner above, in order listed are around 80%(can includes traditional co-champions, as opposed to illinois style), 33%, 25%, 10%.
I believe Elite 8 banners are worthy
April 30th, 2021 at 12:24 PM ^
Remind me how many banners Holtmann has gotten to hang up in the four years he's been on campus. Or how many tournament wins he's had. I believe its a big fat zero for both.
Howard has him beat in both departments after two years, and is poised to widen that gap going forward with the kind of talent he's hauling in. Holtmann can take his 1-2 record over Howard. Howard will happily take his Big Ten title and tournament success.
Hey, guys, it wasn't smack...just logical expectations:
- It's hard to win the regular season championship, but Michigan might do it. Not a gimme, but a strong possibility. Hard to do, earning that banner would be a significant accomplishment.
- It's also not easy to win the conference tournament. And often the regular season champ doesn't also win the tourney. It's especially hard to do both, getting to two banners. Michigan will be a significant player to get either, but both is really hard to do.
- Winning a national championship is even harder to do. Michigan can make a run, for sure, but hanging that banner takes a lot of survival and advancing that sometimes goes beyond a team's ability and control of their outcomes. Therefore, getting two banners at this point is still hard-pressed. Take the under.
- I didn't think about a Final Four banner, as Teddy Bonkers brought up. Perhaps 1 of the B1G banners and a trip to the Final Four can be done. If so, congrats...the over won. Or maybe double-up on the B1G banners...if so, congrats, the over won.
Just sayin' it's really hard to win banners, more difficult than to simply say "hey, we're really good therefore we should win multiple banners." It's not so easy. Michigan could get at least one, but two will be really hard, yet certainly possible.
Take the under.
Collins learned this firsthand to get down on all fours. I was watching the Cal/Duke 1992 game recently and K got down on all fours and slapped the floor when they were making a comeback just like Collins did. Collins was on that team.
For those of you wondering why the hell I was watching that game, it was on while I was a teenager and I remember it fondly and I was a Jason Kidd fan from that point forward.
Wasn't Tony Gonzalez on that Cal team, too? Or was he a bit later?
He was a couple years later
There are some concerns at the point guard spot without CJ Walker but Washington and Justice Sueing being able to function as lead ballhandlers mitigates them.
Not to mention that Meechie Johnson, who enrolled halfway through last season and I think is going to surprise some people this year, and top 30 CG Malaki Branham should help out at the guard spot as well. OSU is going to be a scary team next year
Agreed. I think if both come back, OSU is the conference favorite, with Michigan and Purdue/Maryland right behind. Let's not forget OSU was basically a top-10 team and gets almost everyone back if assumptions hold. I am actually a bit surprised that Washington may return. Seems like he had a breakout year and his stock will never be higher. Also somewhat true for Liddell but he is more of a tweener so maybe he can improve his stock.
I think Michigan has the highest ceiling and is the deepest team, but Michigan is relying on key contributions and defense from many newcomers and that's never a sure thing. OSU's returning core (and MD and Purdue) is better than Michigan's. That said, I certainly expect Michigan to be in the hunt for the conference title and keep improving through the year. Quite possible that Michigan is the best team by league tourney time.
Michigan is also really relying on at least a couple of the freshman being able to score from the outside. Our achilles heel was our games where nobody could hit a 3. With Franz and Livers gone, other than freshman we have zero consistent outside shot makers.
Yeah a young team with limited outside shooting is going to have some rough games. I'd be mildly surprised is Michigan won the big ten regular season. I think we will have the most talent in the conference and by the end of the year should be the biggest threat for a tittle, but full season some of the other teams are going to be more consistent.
Meh, last year OSU was Iowa without the NPOTY. This year they're going to be the same. They played worse defense than Iowa last year, still have 0 quality B1G players above 6'9, and their biggest off-season addition was a Penn St. guard who is a really good defensive player but an absolute 0 on offense (essentially replacing Musa Jallow, a really good defensive player but an absolute 0 on offense, who transferred).
OSU will be good if both Liddell and Washington return. But just like Iowa last year, their inability to play defense will hold them back from being nationally elite, B1G winners or relevant come March. Especially because their biggest holes are Center are PG, the two most important positions on a team arguably, and the 2 positions that play the biggest role on having a quality defense.
Also a guy like Duane Washington was awesome at hitting hard shots last year. But if he doesn't repeat his awesomeness in that regard and just falls back to being good at hitting hard shots, that could result in a drop from OSU's offense as well.
Why don't we just sit tight and let Franz decide for himself (or let his family decide for him). Let's stop giving him (bad) ideas. We all know he spends his time split between studying for finals and being on this blog.
100% agree with you.
Maybe this info is correct, maybe it isn't.
The "prediction" track record here is less than stellar.
1-4 is going to be a toss-up. OSU is the scariest team for sure. Maryland has a really high ceiling. I don't know much about Purdue, but the pundits seem to love them.
I just don't see it with OSU. They'll be good, but we'll have the scariest team by far.
I think JB got us accustom to the multi-year player being more scary than the one-n-done player. But we are bringing talent we haven't seen in a couple decades. Yes, there will be some learning curve hurdles in the beginning, but we are by far the most scary talent-wise.
April 30th, 2021 at 12:16 PM ^
As long as Duane Washington is on that team, OSU will heavily concern me.
I don't know what his game looks like throughout the rest of a given season, but when he plays Michigan he is effing Steph Curry. He just jacks up threes like some guy playing a pick up game at the Y. You know, that guy who yells "KOBE!!!" after each shot, but somehow makes 90-95% of those shots. I don't remember him missing a single shot in the Big Ten tournament when he played Michigan.
Surprised both Liddell and Washington are favored to come back. Thought at least 1 would go pro.
I don't think either will do too much as pros.
Most players don't. But they still go and try.
April 30th, 2021 at 11:44 AM ^
You don't necessarily need to do too much as a pro to pull in several million dollars for your career. My very novice impression is Washington may near his peak draft value already.
I'm sure it will infuriate fans of other conferences, but it looks like the media will "have" to hype up the BIG10 again next season, the top half of the conference looks pretty good.
I dunno, the first half of last year the league looked good top to bottom besides Nebraska, before things worked themselves out. Next season the bottom half teams seem to have a pretty low ceiling. But yeah, 1-4 on Ace's list look pretty damn solid/competitive and 5-8 will be interesting. 9-14 forgetaboutit
You would think the complete face plant by the non-UM B1G teams in the NCAA tourney would damper the media's expectations for the conference next year.
The fun thing about (college) basketball is that it's a team game. The role that Mike Smith filled last year was just right. Doing exactly what was needed -- no more, no less. I'm hopeful that will continue this year. Juwan doesn't seem to have overrecruited. The Coastal Carolina transfer seems about right -- a proven veteran with limited pro prospects who can battle for time with a 4 star recruit and a couple of returning players in Brooks and Jackson. Juwan's not bringing in a player who demands a big role, but rather one who will have a chance via intrasquad competition to be a contributor and possibly a leader.
So we've got a mix of 5 star freshmen, returning starters, 4 star freshmen, and returning players with a chance to move up. This should be a good mix of reliable talent and spirited competition to fill out a contending team.
I think that 1-3 is probably set. Michigan has the most talent, especially if they secure Jones. Purdue impressed by grabbing a 4 seed last year with a very young roster; assuming Williams returns and we see freshman to sophomore leaps from guys like Ivey and Newman they will be the clear 2nd best team in the conference IMO. OSU obviously has 2 stars and some good role players but their problems this year will be the same problems they had last year, namely a mediocre to bad defense due to their lack of size. I'm not sold on Indiana, when is the last time Mike Woodson was a head coach and I don't like their talent level as much as you do. TJD is a great player but Lander looked totally lost last year, I think he had as many airballs as he had made buckets. So I think you're looking at MSU and Maryland fighting for that 4th spot.
If not for Purdue's less than stellar* history in the NCAAT, I would have the 2021-22 version of Purdue as a national contender.
*Purdue has never made the Final Four *since* the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
And I would have Ohio State as a national contender if Washington and Liddell return. Buckeyes will be annoyingly good. But I see OSU losing in the 2nd weekend of the NCAAT because of less than elite defense.
Some personal thoughts:
PSU will be a bottom middle half B1G team. The bottom half of the B1G looks bad next year, and Shrewsberry has done an awesome job salvaging that roster. A starting 5 of Sienna transfer Jalen Pickett (who we were after but didn't get because of concerns about credits transferring), Sam Sessoms, Myles Dread, Seth Lundy and John Harrar is better than any of those other first grouping teams minus maybe Illinois and Nebraska? And with Shrewsberry's pedigree, I think PSU will be solid next year.
I don't think Indiana needs a center at all. They have TJD and Race Thompson, plus are adding a top 75 C recruit for next year. Woodson wants to move to a more perimeter based 4 out offense, and neither TJD nor Thompson have shown they can be a perimeter player (TJD has 0 3's attempted in his career, Thompson is 6-28). Their current perimeter players consist of 2 players who are better than 35% from 3 in their career. One is Parker Stewart who has played 2 seasons in 4 years, sat out last year and played at UT-Martin most recently. The other is Miller Kopp, who has shot 32% from 3 in 2/3 seasons and 40% in the other. Indiana needs perimeter players, not a center.
OMG, even without Franz this team looks amazing. Next season is going to be heady times indeed
Just so much that's still up in the air for all of these teams that it is hard to know what to think. I can see the version of OSU that was a #2 seed despite their strange roster thanks to the performance of their two stars and some coaching from Holtman....or I can see their lack of defense and inability to recreate their match-up magic this year on offense knocking them down a peg.
I like the direction that Purdue is headed....but they still seem like a really flawed team to me. I like Painter and I think he'll get the most out of his roster so top half feels right. But a couple of points about this up-and-coming season that has everyone excited for next year:
- Purdue only played Michigan, Illinois, and Iowa once each....and went 0-3 in those games with two of them being blowouts.
- The only "good" team Purdue beat all season was OSU, who they matched up really well against and beat twice. Otherwise their best win is probably Maryland? MSU?
- Purdue was just 13-8 coming down the stretch before they finished strong with a 5 game winning streak. Those five wins came against MSU, Nebraska, PSU, WI, and Indiana.
I think they will be good but they're going to be asking a lot of Ivey and need to find more shooters. That's still a far cry from their current Top-10 preseason projection.
I fully agree with this. They really didn't impress me last year.
With or without Jones, we will have the best, although short on experience, team in the conference. I am comfortable rolling with the four guards already on the roster if it ends up that way. We also have the best coach and staff.
Glad you had the guts to pick Michigan #1.
Its the right choice
I LIKE your assessments, especially Tier 1.
Though I think you got Northwestern right this time, I was eager to see what I assumed was going to be an entertainingly contrarian take on why NU would be actually good.
Another Northwestern thought: Can we make Collins crawling a sticky so it's always near the top.
The last time I saw someone in that position, it was Leo DiCaprio in Wolf of Wall Street.
Anyone else turgid with delight? I am turgid with delight.
Is that a Maryland reference? They are Turgid with delight every year.
When you say Franz Wagner isn't happening, you mean him going pro this offseason right?
/s
Every year I think highly of Purdue, going back to Gene Keady, and proceed to pick them to go far in the NCAA tourney, and they spectacularly flame out every year, and bust my bracket. Maybe its about time to realize they are overrated as a program. Seriously....no program that I am aware of, chokes so often.
Small correction: this is only Kyle Young's fifth season. It just feels like he's been at OSU forever.
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