Preview: Michigan State 2014
Essentials
WHAT | Michigan vs Michigan State |
---|---|
WHERE | Spartan Stadium, East Lansing MI |
WHEN | 3:30 Eastern October 25th, 2014 |
THE LINE | MSU -17 |
TELEVISION | ABC |
TICKETS | From 149 |
WEATHER | 60, sunny, 15 mph winds |
Overview
I have to change this now. Since the Big Ten season started this section has been a slightly modified assertion that Team X is probably not real good with issues up the wazoo, a resume that does not intimidate, and a reasonably tractable Vegas line.
None of these things are true in re: Michigan State. They are probably real good, they have no wazoo-rated issues, the worst thing on their resume is beating Purdue by two touchdowns, and Vegas is like lol head for the hills.
Rats.
Injury Guesses
PROBABLY IN: Shane Morris is likely available.
MAYBE: Erik Magnuson's rumored high ankle sprain should be healed by now, right? I mean, unless it's one of those high ankle sprains that never do.
Jabrill Peppers is prominently listed on the depth chart but chatter has him potentially out for the season; we'll see if the internet or the program is more truthy. Bet here is internet.
PROBABLY OUT: Delano Hill, Derrick Green, Desmond Morgan.
Run Offense vs Michigan State
Taiwan Jones is going to be making a lot of tackles.
This is not the all-destroying unit of a year ago but it's still plenty good enough to shut Michigan's arthritic run game down. MSU is currently 28th in YPC allowed; notably, they crushed Nebraska to the tune of 47 yards on 37 carries.
Things have gone less swimmingly at other times—mostly times when someone pops into the secondary and there is flailing around him. Shane Wynn broke a 75-yard reverse last weekend; Tevin Coleman added a 65-yard romp; Purdue had rushes of 52 and 36 yards. That has scuffed up last year's national-best rush D.
The problem for Michigan is what happens on carries that don't go 30 yards. Michigan State is in a tie for 116th with 4 rushes of more than 50 yards allowed; they're eighth with 21 rushes for more than ten yards. The secondary biffs at a high rate on a low number of plays that break long. When they don't go a long way they don't go anywhere unless you're Tevin Coleman. This is an obvious problem for a Michigan rush offense with three runs of 30 yards on the year, all of which came against early-season tomato cans.
You cannot run the ball consistently against Michigan State and Michigan has no explosive capability.
The best bet for something that looks respectable is misdirection and frippery, which Michigan has gone to on occasion this year with Norfleet and Funchess; otherwise it's going to look a lot like the Penn State game, in which Michigan was rarely caught behind the line but struggled to scratch out more than a couple yards at a time.
Key Matchup: Braden/Cole/Williams/Butt versus the MSU perimeter. The State DTs are not great and Michigan's interior line is likely to get push here and there; it may not matter if Michigan can win blocks against the LBs and DEs.
[Hit THE JUMP for a THEMATIC VIDEO of QWOP]
Pass Offense vs Michigan State
Ed Davis had 2.5 sacks last year and leads MSU with 6 this year.
Devin Gardner's ribs have trembled at the coming of this day. Devin Gardner is a warrior, but his ribs would really just like to have some tea and read The Economist. Alas, it is not to be.
Michigan State remains the same maniacally aggressive, rib-annihilating defense they were a year ago. They're currently fifth in the country with 26 sacks, and as is traditional a linebacker is plundering his way into the backfield—Ed Davis leads the team with six. The ends have 8.5 between them and then there's a smattering of contributors coming from all angles at all times. Blitz? Yes please. Blitz? Don't mind if I do. Blitz against Michigan? ALL THE BLITZES.
MSU has not backed this up quite as well as they did a year ago, though. The departures of Isaiah Lewis and Darqueze Dennard have downgraded the MSU secondary from impossible to merely improbable. This was most obvious in the Oregon game, when the Ducks downloaded the Michigan State defense midway through the third quarter and shattered their quarters concept with a series of bombs towards vertical-moving slot receivers.
MSU recovered from this to post good days against Nebraska and Purdue before throttling third-string true freshman Zander Diamont against Indiana; a quality team with the ability to threaten vertically down the slot can attack MSU effectively.
Michigan isn't that. They may in fact be able to threaten vertically down the slot with Norfleet and Funchess, but it's doubtful Michigan can protect consistently enough to force MSU to react and they have not put together anything resembling a scheme likely to pop guys open as safeties overplay thing X. Oregon got to be Oregon because they have an offense that ruthlessly exposes and exploits weak points. Michigan not so much.
Protection is going to be an issue. Michigan's tackles have… coped so far. They haven't been put under nearly as much pressure as they will be on Saturday. Meanwhile, non-Funchess receivers have not shown much ability to get open and Norfleet remains an occasionally-used toy. Jake Butt could be a major weapon against a smaller safety if Michigan can get him open—the pop pass can break huge against MSU if you can protect long enough to get guys past the safety-moving-into-robber level.
I just don't think that's at all possible. Michigan will hit some stuff; Gardner will be harassed into turnovers, etc etc etc.
Key matchup: Devin Gardner versus Disintegration. The concept, not the Cure album.
Run Defense vs Michigan State
This is not last year's Michigan State offense. Correction: it may be the Michigan State offense from the very tail end of last year; it's not the one Michigan went up against midseason. Strength of opposition and all that yes yes but you would weep giant frothy tears if you looked at Michigan's rushing output halfway through the season and saw this:
Opponent | Carries | Yards | Avg | TD |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jacksonville St. | 50 | 221 | 4.42 | 3 |
@ 6 Oregon | 36 | 123 | 3.42 | 1 |
Eastern Mich. | 60 | 336 | 5.6 | 7 |
Wyoming | 52 | 338 | 6.5 | 5 |
16 Nebraska | 44 | 188 | 4.27 | 2 |
@ Purdue | 43 | 294 | 6.84 | 2 |
@ Indiana | 51 | 330 | 6.47 | 5 |
On the year MSU is averaging 5.5 yards a carry.
The thing with MSU this year is the stunning amount of experience they're carrying. In a two-back set nine of their starters are in their fourth or fifth years (third year players Jack Conklin and Josiah Price are the exceptions); their starting skill guys are all fifth year seniors. Everyone who plays save a few backup skill guys took a redshirt, and MSU fills the few holes they find with judiciously applied JUCOs.
The result is an organized, disciplined unit that gets the most out of talent recruiting services have described as "meh." Meh no more:
They've given up just four sacks all year; their 79 yards lost on TFLs is the fifth-fewest in the country. These guys don't blow assignments and don't get overpowered at the point of attack.
Starting center Jack Allen missed the Indiana game with an ankle injury but is projected to return. Dantonio said he could have gone against the Hoosiers if necessary, so don't expect gamesmanship here.
State is deep, if not thrilling, at tailback. Fifth year senior Jeremy Langford is the workhorse back capable of finding the hole and falling forward through it productively; fifth year senior Nick Hill is the quick third-down back alternative; sophomore Delton Williams is an athletic, physical heir apparent somewhat reminiscent of Jehu Caulcrick. Langford's projected as a mid-round selection in the upcoming NFL draft for reasons that used to sound very Michigan and now sound very Michigan State:
Runs low to the ground with excellent pad level and energetic feet to get the most out of every touch. Langford is a workhorse type with a hard-nosed, no-nonsense style of running the ball, getting stronger as the game progresses. Has a little shake-and-bake to him to extend runs, keeping his legs pumping through contact.
Langford really shines in areas where most young backs struggle like pass protection, reliability in the screen game and also the ability to get stronger and better as the game goes on.
If State does start rolling over Michigan's defense it'll be a lot like last year, when a tiring defense gave up the ghost once the game was out of reach.
Note that State has gone to a heavy dose of gun this year. Ace's FFFF charted the evolution from the Purdue game:
Formations | Run | Pass | PA |
---|---|---|---|
Gun | 14 | 17 | 5 |
I-Form | 8 | 1 | 1 |
Ace | 6 | 1 | 2 |
Heavy | 1 | -- | -- |
Cook is mobile enough to keep 'em honest on the zone read and Michigan State is using that to help matriculate down the field.
Now, State has not played a rush defense in the same stratosphere as Michigan's. M is fifth nationally in YPC allowed, and the next best State opponent is Nebraska in the 40s. They deal with the same strength of schedule issues State does but let's just assume from now on that yes the Big Ten is awful and etc. etc. etc.
This will be an enormous test for no-long-referred-to-as-walk-on Ryan Glasgow, who's anchored the Michigan rush defense with remarkably consistent production at nose tackle; the rest of the line has gotten a lot of space-constricting push. The linebackers have been dodgier but still seem to be B or B+ players, especially if James Ross's recent OL-flattening surge continues.
One issue for Michigan: with Ondre Pipkins seemingly out of the picture things get thin fast if MSU can stay on the field long enough to get a lot of rotation going on the Michigan DL. True freshman Bryan Mone has gotten flung off the LOS as much as you would expect a true freshman to, and he will not cope well with the veteran Spartan OL.
Key Matchup: Glasgow and Henry versus the interior MSU OL. It starts up front with a leg-churner like Langford.
Pass Defense vs Michigan State
Also not last year's Michigan State: this bit of Michigan State. Connor Cook's completion percentage has jumped three points, his YPA has gone from 7.3 to 9.3, and he's going to blow through his 22 TDs from last year sometime in the next month—he's already got 16. ESPN's QB rating stat is duly impressed, shooting from 69 a year ago to 84. That places him 6th nationally, hanging out with guys like Dak Prescott, Blake Sims, Jameis Winston and—sigh—JT Barrett.
While Cook is still offering up the occasional "what are you doing" throw, those are greatly reduced in his second year at the helm; excellent pass protection and a steadily improving wide receiver corps have seen MSU's offense go from rickety to impressive.
The star of that improving WR corps is Tony Lippett. Lippett is not a burner and still isn't getting much separation, but he's making it work Junior Hemingway style. Ace:
Lippett isn't outrageously big or eye-poppingly athletic, but his ability to run good routes and make plays on the ball separates him from your average receiver. Here's a nice example of the latter:
Zero separation, but Lippett and Cook are on the same page, and Lippett makes easy work of this jump ball before picking up ample yards after the catch, another thing he does quite well.
He's averaging just over 20 yards a catch on 39 opportunities so far this year and has brought in one over 20 yards in every game so far. He's cracked 30 in five games, usually by skying over defensive backs and using his excellent body control to make contested catches. And sometimes he does pop open deep, albeit with the aid of play action that gets corners involved.
The rest of the WR corps is okay, with Macgarrett Kings your slot threat du jour and MSU featuring a pile of big-ish interchangeable guys with around ten catches. Price, the TE, is actually the second-biggest yards per catch threat—watch out for him on play action.
Michigan's pass defense actually seems to match up well with the opposition here. MSU is short on the athletic speedsters who have given the cornerbacks fits so far and they've been good about walling off go routes. Lippett might not have much room to make the kind of catches he does above.
Coverage breaks down, though, and it's doubtful that Michigan gets sufficient pressure to truly shut down the MSU passing game. They tore Christian Hackenberg to bits last week; this is an entirely different level of opposition and oh God it just occurred to me that Hackenberg has to play MSU later this year. #pray4hack
This will be a bit of a grind for MSU but they'll break through if given sufficient opportunities.
Key Matchup: Kings/Price versus Probably Countess and Clark. Michigan's weak point has been the nickel back and safeties pushed into man coverage, especially when Michigan's obvious man alignment gives opponents the ability to check into rub routes and such.
Special Teams
Previously-reliable kicker Michael Geiger's had a bit of a wobble the last few weeks, going 3/6 after starting his career almost perfect. He even missed one under 40, which had not happened in his career to date. I wouldn't expect that to last but he's not as automatic as you would have assumed preseason.
Punter Mike Sadler has just been okay. He's averaging just over 40 yards an attempt; MSU has allowed returns on a hefty third of his punts and given up a PR touchdown. There might be some room for Norfleet to get upfield here.
Spartan return services are not threatening. RJ Shelton is trundling out to the 25 when he gets a kick return opportunity; Macgarrett Kings is averaging about seven yards a pop on punts. As per usual Michigan's combo of line drives from Hagerup and old-timey punt formations could offer Kings a highway to 20 yard returns—rewatching the Minnesota game was infuriating in this department.
Key Matchup: YOU PUT ELEVEN GUYS ON THE FIELD AT LEAST MOST OF THE TIME
Intangibles
if there was ever a time for grumpycat
Cheap Thrills
Worry if...
- You are entering this game with anything resembling hope. I mean, yeah, Michigan has a 10% chance according to historical spread W/L stuff but what about either of these programs would indicate to you that Vegas was off—in a good way?
- You have too many nachos
- While watching the game you are sucked into a hellish alternate dimension
Cackle with knowing glee if..
- Alternate dimension actually seems better than previous dimension
- Alternate dimension has nachos
- Um, like six Michigan State turnovers?
Fear/Paranoia Level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for Boy They Seem Good, +1 for Michigan Has Gotten Outcoached In This Game For Six Straight Years, +1 for We Ain't Got No Big Plays And That's Doom Against MSU, +1 for Maybe We'll Get Positive Rushing Yards… Maybe, +1 for Vegas Says LOL)
Desperate need to win level: 6 (Baseline 5; +1 for MSU Is Bad And Should Feel Bad, +1 for It Would Be Pretty Hilarious, +1 for Here Is One Knife To Your Playoff Chances, –1 for Oh Right We're Rooting To Prevent MSU From Winning A National Title Instead Of Actually Doing Anything Ourselves, –1 for Apparently We Need Yet Further Clarity About Things That May Not In Fact Be Already Decided But Really Should Be)
Loss will cause me to... resume F5-ing every message board that has ever had a post about Michigan football for news about regime change.
Win will cause me to... yodel in surprise.
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
- Michigan averages two yards a carry, which is actually incredible improvement relative to last year.
- Defense keeps Michigan in it for a while, something bad happens on offense or special teams, two score lead, Michigan folds their tent.
- Michigan State, 30-10
October 24th, 2014 at 2:05 PM ^
MSU 41-10 Michigan
October 24th, 2014 at 1:45 PM ^
A dyskinetic runner flailing to a melancholy soundtrack aptly describes my perception of the M offense most times this year.
October 24th, 2014 at 1:45 PM ^
Tomorrow, hearing Brian Cook yodel will be thing I've always wanted most in my life.
October 24th, 2014 at 1:45 PM ^
I see no way we upset them here. MSU always seems to play better than expected in this game and Michian's offense is just turrible. Unless MSU inexplicably turns the ball over a ton, we will not win
MSU 40
Michigan 17
October 24th, 2014 at 1:47 PM ^
Yep, we're going to be horse-fucked tomorrow.
STAEE 35
Good Guys 13
October 24th, 2014 at 1:47 PM ^
How in the hell did we score a TD? Was it on defense, or was it a punt return?
October 24th, 2014 at 1:51 PM ^
goals and two safeties. No touchdown streak still on.
October 24th, 2014 at 1:49 PM ^
Just tried playing QWOP. I suck at playing QWOP.
October 24th, 2014 at 2:01 PM ^
It's supposed to be really nice outside tomorrow. I think I might just go sit on the roof at Gene's Sausage Shop and drink.
October 24th, 2014 at 2:42 PM ^
A flask of Makers Mark will be joining me.
October 25th, 2014 at 2:23 AM ^
Live in Fort Collins, CO. Will be spending the day at Rocky Mountain National Park.
October 24th, 2014 at 2:04 PM ^
The better team doesn't always win. Only have to be better for 60 minutes.
October 24th, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^
I'm actually glad for the screw job of having to play in EL two years in a row, as I don't believe they'd keep this one all that competitive at home, either. Dantonio going 6-2 against Michigan is going to suck enough; going to 3-1 at the Big House would be humiliation. Not that I'd feel too comfortable betting against it next year.
October 24th, 2014 at 2:08 PM ^
Is with all due respect not 6. It's 1. Maybe 0. Because there is no desperate need to win. Because there is no realistic chance to win. Because all rational fans realize this and I bet many of the players secretly do too. If this category was desperate need to not be embarrassed it would be 6.
October 24th, 2014 at 2:09 PM ^
Being shutout is the much more likely event. This year's offense is just so terrible at scoring points I can't see it besting last year's anemic six point performance. Maybe M gets a FG, but far more likely a big fat goose egg is at hand.
October 24th, 2014 at 2:12 PM ^
I want it to be like this:
But feel more like this:
October 24th, 2014 at 2:15 PM ^
October 24th, 2014 at 2:25 PM ^
...playing tomorrow. But this team seems very poorly positioned to take advantage of MSU's weaknesses. I question whether Michigan could play on the road against any top 25 team and not be thumped. My guess, FWIW, is something a lot like last year: 27-6.
I hope you're right, though.
October 24th, 2014 at 3:39 PM ^
Yes and no. 2011 Michigan could win this game, but that team was just "different" (whether by older skill players or luck) than any team we've seen at Michigan since Carr left. As for 2012, I'm a bit more dubious. That was a team that relied so heavily on Denard to carry them offensively, whereas this overall-weaker offense feels a bit more well-rounded.
Funchess and Norfleet can make MSU pay; I've watched 4 MSU games so far and that secondary is exploitable. If it's a windy trash-tornado it may not matter, but there are options. I also think that the offense going more shotgun (like they did against PSU) will help keep Devin upright, and that could make the game interesting. The score last year was a bit misleading, as MSU kinda pushed it up after the offense fell apart.
October 24th, 2014 at 2:27 PM ^
probably 3 above average teams and none of those 3 games have been close: ND 31-0, Utah 26-10 and Minnesota 30-14.
Outside of the tomato cans (Appy St and Miami), UM has had two competitive games: Rutgers and PSU. I think MSU is much better then either Rutgers or PSU.
I think this year will be similiar to last year. UM will probably keep it close for a while but at the end of 60 minutes it'll be similiar to 29-6.
October 24th, 2014 at 3:42 PM ^
Minnesota shouldn't count in this calculus because of Morris being out there; replace him with Gardner and the offense moved reasonably well. That was a game Hoke threw away.
Utah was a bad game, and ND was a blowout on the scoreboard but it wasn't like ND ran away from Michigan. It was a weird game overall (Michigan outgained ND and really gummed up their running game).
Again, I'm not saying Michigan is going to roll MSU tomorrow, but it feels like part of the analysis from fans stems from a desire to see change at the top of the program. This is a good MSU team, but they are beatable, and Hoke being on the way out doesn't mean UM can't pull off an upset.
October 24th, 2014 at 5:19 PM ^
Of course they're beatable. Just not by us.
October 24th, 2014 at 3:49 PM ^
Yeah that's the problem. Based on FEI we are basically playing a team that combined PSU's defense with Notre Dame's offense.
On the road.
I hate to say this but it if we took Purdue's - yes Purdue with a QB who has all of 3-4 games to his credit - offense, with our defense i think this actually would be an entertaining close game. That we'd probably lose in the 4th. But we are taking our offense.
Someone wrote it in another thread perfectly - MSU plays a break don't bend defense. If you can get to the 2nd level you usually get a big play as Brian aptly explained in the run offense part of the preview. But they bomb you into submission the other 98% of plays. The other 2% you can get a 50+ yard run but not with Deveon Smith who is slower than an of their LBs.
The only hope is Devin has an Ohio State 2013 game but that QB has not arrived in 2014 for whatever reason.
October 24th, 2014 at 5:06 PM ^
The "break but don't bend" defense was from The Only Colors, and yeah MSU does hold up quite well when they bust, but we are also basing a lot of that on a couple of games against competent offenses.
I think you'll see Hayes and Norfleet more in the rush offense, and both have a chance to break a long run. But I also don't love their LBs in coverage, and Butt could absolutely work the middle of the field and get some yardage.
Again, I'm not saying UM will win; I don't think they will. But I do think it will be closer than other are predicting, which around here apparently makes me (a) an outlier and (b) a raving lunatic who may possibly be trolling everyone.
October 24th, 2014 at 2:48 PM ^
You think the Michigan D will score two TDs while giving up 24? Because, c'mon, the offense score 17 points? That's as many points as they scored against ND, Utah, and Minnesota combined.
October 24th, 2014 at 3:44 PM ^
Again, Minnesota shouldn't count in this analysis because of Morris. Michigan scored 7 points with Gardner running two drives.
ND was a weird game and Utah kinda beat the crap out of UM. This isn't me calling a UM upset, but if Purdue and IU starting a 5th-string QB can put up points on MSU, I gotta believe UM can as well.
October 24th, 2014 at 6:37 PM ^
17 points is 14 points more than Michigan scored against ND and Utah combined.
I don't think that helped your argument.
October 24th, 2014 at 2:22 PM ^
They got 27 against Oregon. They got 27 against Nebraska. They'll get 27 against us.
October 24th, 2014 at 3:42 PM ^
Their offense got 27. I think their defense is good for at least 7 if not from a pick 6 or fumble return, then from handing their offense the ball in the redzone.
34-6
October 24th, 2014 at 2:24 PM ^
Otherwise, no shot.
October 24th, 2014 at 3:31 PM ^
And we need to not give them six turnovers while getting our four plus......
October 24th, 2014 at 2:33 PM ^
All I want to see is a team that looks like they want to win. I'd like to see playcalling that matches this. If they give up a few big plays on D because of super aggressive blitzing, I don't care. Bring the kitchen sink, because most are expecting a humiliating defeat. Go down swinging.
October 24th, 2014 at 2:41 PM ^
I think MSU wins by 25+.
October 24th, 2014 at 2:48 PM ^
Really this is the most overmatched I have felt since the Alabama opener two years ago.
I see 35-14 MSU.
October 24th, 2014 at 3:06 PM ^
It's just so sad that this season has beaten Brian down so bad he no longer comes up with interesting prediction scores. The ultimate sign of humilitation: being mundane.
October 24th, 2014 at 7:56 PM ^
Is that the combination of humiliation and irritation? Regardless, I like that word.
October 24th, 2014 at 3:32 PM ^
October 24th, 2014 at 3:33 PM ^
Four years, one win over a bowl team on the road (2011 Northwestern, which finished 6-7).
Abandon hope, all ye who enter here.
October 25th, 2014 at 12:59 AM ^
Two actually - we also beat Illinois (7-6) in 2011.
October 27th, 2014 at 10:33 AM ^
Ha, I didn't even check Illinois's record because Illinois.
October 24th, 2014 at 3:33 PM ^
October 24th, 2014 at 3:50 PM ^
So if coach says they've had a good week of practice. What happens if they've had two week's of good practice?
October 24th, 2014 at 3:52 PM ^
Find refuge in the sagely words of Rosie Perez: sometimes when you lose, you actually win.
October 24th, 2014 at 4:14 PM ^
who were rated so high on paper do not play well on the field. I blame coaching. The youth excuse went out the window last season when the team did not improve through the season. Hoke even does a worse job on the road. It may be close in the first QTR but have a feeling the offense is going to choke it up quite a bit before half time. I see our offense giving MSU defense 10 points!
MSU 51
UM 6
Q1: UM 3 MSU 7
Q2 UM 6 MSU 17
Q3: UM 0 MSU 10
Q4: UM 0 MSU 17
October 24th, 2014 at 4:24 PM ^
The videos in this post are screwed up. The first video should be Oregon throwing deep to a slot receiver, but it's Lippett catching a Hemingway-style jump ball. The second video should be Lippett, but it's a video game #fail thing. Also not sure what's going on with the Moment of Zen.
October 24th, 2014 at 4:27 PM ^
Key Matchup: YOU PUT ELEVEN GUYS ON THE FIELD AT LEAST MOST OF THE TIME
Pure gold, love it
Ya...not gonna be pretty. Lets all just make sure we have some cold drinks close to us.
MSU - 31
UofM - 13
October 24th, 2014 at 4:47 PM ^
At least with our slow tempo it should prevent them from hanging 50 on us
October 24th, 2014 at 11:14 PM ^
You're joking, but this is closer to the truth of Hoke's offensive "philosophy" than you might think.
October 24th, 2014 at 5:24 PM ^
If the trend stays true then we only score 3 points. 27-3 MSU.
October 24th, 2014 at 5:34 PM ^
Hey Seth,
Good luck tomorrow! Hope to see you up there, you are welcomed at our tailgate again to eat all of our food and drink all of our beer and then lie about the experience to everyone on the blog!!
Text me if you make it up!!
Love,
The Mean Guys
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