NBC Sports Early Look at 2012 - Michigan #5
I can't wait until September 1! It's a good thing we have a great basketball team, signing day, and a (hopefully) resurgent hockey team to keep us busy for a few months.
http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/10/2012-a-look-ahead/r…
January 10th, 2012 at 10:00 AM ^
that early season top 5 match-up!
January 10th, 2012 at 10:49 AM ^
The thought of playing Alabama has been making me cringe all year. The one thing I have to hang my hat on is a quick review of their depth chart. They lose (based on depth chart on their Rivals site:
OFFENSE
Their center, both starting receivers (Hanks and Maze), a tight end because they're seniors plus you have to believe Trent Richardson is gone. (6 returning starters).
DEFENSE
The Nose Tackle, two out of four linebackers, a safety and a corner are all seniors plus there is a realistic possibility of junior LB Donta Hightower and junior cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick leaving early (thats 5 senior starters plus another two possible juniors). They also lose some depth as the guys listed at second string behind two of the seniors and both Hightower and Kirkpatrick are seniors too.
Getting them in the first game of the year with a ton of new starters may be a break for us. May many of their juniors wake up this morning and realize that college doesn't get any better than this and move on to greener pastures.
January 10th, 2012 at 11:04 AM ^
too bad they replace everything they loss with more 5 stars. i know nothing makes up for experience, but having an oversized talent pool to choose from makes things a little easier.
January 10th, 2012 at 11:33 AM ^
Well if we're only going to go off of recruiting ranks, we replace our D-Line with a 5* and two 4* players
January 10th, 2012 at 11:19 PM ^
they're probably not replacing players with true freshmen...
January 10th, 2012 at 11:09 AM ^
That being said Alabama could lose 24 starters and still have a good team. Saban also has plenty of $$$ to hire great assistant coaches.
January 10th, 2012 at 12:51 PM ^
and even more $$$ to hire great players
January 10th, 2012 at 1:24 PM ^
"... and the Michigan Wolverines have just stunned the defending national champions 17-9." Yup, they kicked 3 field goals and no touchdowns.
Rankings for next year are almost completely based on how the current year's team finished so don't get your panties bunched up. If Michigan starts the year at 25 or 5 it really won't matter. I'm going to yell and cheer during that game just as much regardless of ranking.
In week 1 just about anything can happen. We've been on the good side of this and we've been on the bad side. Instead of being a pessimistic brat about the game (just so you can say, "I told you so!" if bama wins) wouldn't it make more sense to be optimistic about the game and thoroughly enjoy the BIG WIN?!
And I sincerely doubt that the coaching staff is "afraid" of Alabama regardless of who is playing on their team. It's not going to change the way Michigan coaches prepare their team.
I have no doubts that Michigan is going to make us proud and pull out a thrilling victory. In the meantime I'm going to continue to enjoy the season that JUST FINISHED and not worry about next year until sometime after the spring game. Go Blue!
January 10th, 2012 at 11:40 AM ^
I bet LT Barret Jones goes pro too.
January 10th, 2012 at 12:01 PM ^
you would think, but I believe he announced a week or so ago that he was coming back.
Regardless, I think Kirkpatrick and Hightower will go and maybe 1 more from their D, could be their entire secondary, 3 of 4 backers and their best DL as well as their top DL backup. They have talent to replace but it will never be easier than getting them in the first game of the year next year.
January 10th, 2012 at 1:17 PM ^
Barrett Jones already said he's coming back.
January 10th, 2012 at 1:46 PM ^
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1017814-5-teams-that-can-dethrone-th…
names M as one of 5 teams to dethrone SEC next year
January 10th, 2012 at 10:00 AM ^
Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.
January 10th, 2012 at 10:07 AM ^
What's this have to do with Bill Stewart?
January 10th, 2012 at 1:17 PM ^
Do you forsee a UofM victory?
January 10th, 2012 at 10:04 AM ^
ND will be in the preseason top 25 poll twice.
January 10th, 2012 at 10:07 AM ^
way too early for ranking predictions, and personally i think 5 is way too high. i just don't want us to have nd expectations this early in the game.
January 10th, 2012 at 10:09 AM ^
I'm comfortable saying that Michigan will probably be a top five team in 2014. No. 5 is way too high for a team that just lost the best center in the country, its best receiver, and the heart of its defense.
January 10th, 2012 at 10:36 AM ^
JR isn't coming back?
January 10th, 2012 at 10:55 AM ^
JR was a SR this year.
January 10th, 2012 at 11:20 AM ^
so confusing!
January 10th, 2012 at 11:46 AM ^
You could totally do a whole "who's on first" comedy sketch about Junior the senior
January 10th, 2012 at 11:22 AM ^
nobody's bringing everybody back. We lose great seniors and great leadership. Will be difficult to replace the production of Molk, Martin, and RVB.
But QB is the biggest hurdle in football today, and we have one of the best in the country. I personally buy into the "2nd year in the system" hype for Denard. Second year in the system for the Defense as well.
January 10th, 2012 at 10:21 AM ^
My only is that we don't embarassed by Bama like State. If we can win that game, it will be a special year.
January 10th, 2012 at 10:09 AM ^
I always like it when writers use "myriad" as an adjective instead of using it as a noun. I also like it when they agree somewhat with things I have been saying all season:
1. The "which Urban Meyer is Ohio getting" question.
2. BSU's window might be coming to an end becuase they aren't deep enough to sustain excellence.
3. Wiscy delayed the inevitable by hiring Russell Wilson last season, but also slowed the development of a QB from within the program.
4. USC isn't really going to pay much for their violations. They can whine all they want, but they still have a team that can win it all next year. I am guessing their "personnel aquisition program" is still in full swing.
As for MIchigan's #5 "ranking," it could happen, but the Bama game is going to mean a lot. Here's a scenario I would love to see played out next season:
Michigan loses the first game to Bama, runs the table the rest of the way, beating Bama in a rematch. Bama fans conveniently forget that Michigan is a conference champion and use the same rematch arguments that LSU fans used against them, arguing one side with as much conviction as they did the other the year before.
The end of the scenario: posters like me conveniently forget that it is a mythical national championship and loudly proclaim Michigan as the National Champions.
January 10th, 2012 at 10:14 AM ^
USC will pay for their violations in a couple of years when they have almost no juniors or seniors.
January 10th, 2012 at 10:32 AM ^
Interesting breakdown of their 2011 roster (excludes practice squad, indicated by SQ on the roster under EXP).
FR / RS FR: 30, 3 = 33
SO / RS SO: 5, 10 = 15
JR / RS JR: 10, 12 = 22
SR / RS SR: 4, 11 = 15
In 2 years, their senior class will be TINY. You can assume there will be at least a LITTLE attrition (e.g., guys like Robert Woods and Dillon Baxter going pro; don't know enough about their roster to say who else would leave early). They'll end up with a pretty big junior class, though, and their current recruiting class (which will be sophs in 2013) is currently only at 12. I'm guessing they'll have another 4-6 spots open and that several true frosh this season will RS. Either way, they should stabilize after 2013.
January 10th, 2012 at 11:25 AM ^
January 10th, 2012 at 11:42 AM ^
I see the point you are making, but the Dillon Baxter comment threw me off. He will be lucky to play for USC again, yet alone make an early jump to the pros. This kid seems to be a victim of the overhyped, entitled recruit and what can happen if they aren't given every demand. I just think SC will go a different direction than Baxter, unless he can change his attitude.
January 10th, 2012 at 12:11 PM ^
He is gone from the team, that ship has sailed. He could never get his act together and requested his transfer in October. He is most likely headed To San Diego State.
January 10th, 2012 at 11:07 AM ^
If we split with them it's more likely to be the other way around, with us winning the first game while they're breaking in far more new starters than we are and them winning the rematch.
January 10th, 2012 at 1:20 PM ^
Honestly, I'm so sick of the SEC winning it every year that I would almost welcome a USC national championship in '12 (assuming Michigan can't win it all).
January 10th, 2012 at 10:10 AM ^
Top 10 is about right, there are still a few schools ahead of us in terms of talent and experience to be in the top 5 IMO. After the past few years I will happily take a top 10 pre-season ranking.
January 10th, 2012 at 10:14 AM ^
bleacher report has us at #4
January 10th, 2012 at 10:22 AM ^
says we are #1. He even BKFinest'd it!
January 10th, 2012 at 10:24 AM ^
We return a ton of talented starters and our young guys need to step up! Chip Kelly made a great point last night about what separates teams like Alabama and LSU -- their depth at so many positions.
I think we are getting 'there.' Not we are not there yet, but with much expected attrition at Alabama, we shouldn't be too far away in terms of talent.
But this match-up so early scares me.
January 10th, 2012 at 11:42 AM ^
"Why not, Michigan at #5?"
1. Our D-line is paper thin. And we lose our best players from that already thin line. This is a huge concern.
2. Denard is still a question mark. Will we see the Denard that slayed OSU this past year or the one that has had trouble moving the ball against every other decent to good defense that we have faced, including this past year's MSU, Iowa and VaTech teams? Unfortunately, by this stage in his career, teams with decent defenses have a pretty good game plan to stop Denard - stack the box and force him to make longer throws. Also, confusing coverages and more complex D schemes regularly cause Denard to make bad decisions. On the other side of this, there is the whole "second year in the same system" thing and Denard's potential final leap. If he makes one, then he first part of this point goes away, but I unfortunately think that he will continue to be turnover prone, and will continue to struggle when forced to use his arm.
3. Molk - we lose him. Despite him winning national awards, I think that his positive impact on our rushing attack is not fully appreciated. We may struggle on the ground without him.
4. Depth - we still need some. Yes, this new class coming in is a top class, but it is not realistic to expect these guys have have an immediate impact.
5. The eyeball test. I think that we made massive strides under Hoke, Mattison and Borges. But watching us play and then watching some of the better teams in the country, it is hard not to see that we just don't yet have the athletes to compete at a top 5 level. We are going to get there in 2-3 years, but I don't see how anyone could have watched us against VaTech and ranked us top 5.
Not trying to be a debbie downer, just my $.02.
January 10th, 2012 at 11:49 AM ^
that as being a debbie downer at all. #5 is way too high for all the reasons you mentioned. I don't think Denard is ever going to be a great passer. I hope I have to eat those words next year, but I just don't see his decision making capability as strong enough. However, we did see flashed of brilliance in the Nebraska and Ohio game this year, so there is hope.
Personally, I think we'll end up next year 15-20th due to the schedule.
January 10th, 2012 at 1:42 PM ^
January 10th, 2012 at 2:17 PM ^
compared to who(whom)? Can you find more than 4 teams that have fewer question marks than Michigan for next year? I get it seems high, but maybe there are no more than 4 options to place above them??
January 10th, 2012 at 10:33 AM ^
as long as weat least finish close the Alabama game doesn't scare me. Oregon already proved this year needlessly difficult preseason games don't need to derail a season.
January 10th, 2012 at 10:37 AM ^
The Alabama game to start 2012 is going to be a good measuring stick how we are coming along in terms of being nationally relevant every year in the future. Note that Alabama has had the following recruiting class rankings after Saban's first year at the helm:
2008: 1st
2009: 1st
2010: 5th
2011: 1st
2012: 1st (as of now anyway)
I think our coaches view this game as a challenge, and given the Michigan fanbases whining about tomato cans in the past, this game should be viewed as an opportunity and not with dread. If you want to compete with the best, you have to play them and learn how to beat them. Saban might be able to outrecruit everyone else given his oversigning and SEC entrance standards and what not, but I do not think he will be able to outcoach our guys given the performance I saw this year.
January 10th, 2012 at 10:45 AM ^
all you need to do is look at Texas and Notre Dame to see that coaching a player is easily just as important as recruiting. I'll take Kovacs over most 4 stars
January 10th, 2012 at 2:19 PM ^
Why be worried? It's going to be an exciting game against a great program and let's all just enjoy playing a real OOC opponent that isn't ND. No one on this board picked Michigan to be 11-2...just liek no one is picking them to beat Bama. Stranger things have happened
January 10th, 2012 at 10:39 AM ^
We were talking about this in the car ride on the way home from NOLA. Going through the list of teams, I just don't know who you put ahead of us. If you do find a team, it's a team that is about equal to us. The 3 teams I said had to be ahead of us were LSU, Bama, and Oregon. Check. USC is in there now too (is Barkley coming back?). Stanford, OSU, and BSU all lose the QBs that got them ranked that high. That leaves Arkansas, KSU, Wisconsin, Baylor (if RG3 comes back), SoCar, VaTech, Oklahoma, etc. I don't know that any of those teams are necessarily better than us. I predicted somewhere in the 4-9 range, so I really don't see where the issue is.
January 10th, 2012 at 10:50 AM ^
I'm pretty sure Barkley is coming back for USC. But I don't think RG3 is coming back for Baylor.
Regardless, I don't like being ranked that high to start the season. It just gives me bad memories of the starts in 98, 05 and 07 when we were also ranked #5.
January 10th, 2012 at 12:48 PM ^
I'm not saying I necessarily like it, but just that it's not exactly unexpected.
January 10th, 2012 at 10:40 AM ^
The one good thing about being ranked so high at the beginning of the season is that we won't have to fight to work are way up, even if we lose to Bama.
January 10th, 2012 at 10:47 AM ^
We won't tumble too far. This game could do a lot for our boys confidence, even if we lose. As long as we stay with bama.