Will Beilein teams (nearly) always be outmatched at the 4?
Looking at the game with a short Tulsa squad and it seems like a good match-up for us, particularly because Tulsa can't exploit our lack of height at the 4 position. Zak Irvin is a stocky 6'6" but is usually forced to guard guys a fair bit bigger than himself.
That got me wondering if being undersized at the 4 is something Beilein teams will always struggle with on the defensive end. Given that our main sets are four out one in, Beilein ideally wants a player that's 6'7"+ who can put the ball on the floor and shoot well from outside. However, any player like that is going to be a hot commodity. Project-type guys like Uthoff are tough to predict and the ones that obviously fit the mold (TJ Leaf) make for a tough recruiting pull. Given the rarity of the ideal 4, it seems likely that Beilein will frequently be forced to roll with the less rare 6'5"-6'6" guy who can do the things on offense that his system requires and we'll end up having to pay the price on the defensive end.
Think this will continue to be an issue down the line? Mo Wagner may fit the bill but I'm not seeing anyone else on the squad who has the 4 skills and size to fix the problem once Zak leaves.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:31 AM ^
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March 14th, 2016 at 11:37 AM ^
I actually like Beilein's system -- it is what many NBA teams are moving towards. The only problem we have is we don't have enough versatility at the 4 and our 5s are just too weak and unathletic. The prototypical 4 for our system is Draymond Green at 6'7", 230lbs. We need someone his size and versatility to play the 4 and be able to bang with the big dudes in the B1G but also be a contributor in Beilein's 4 guard O. As a college player GR3 did a great job at this. I think Chatman could play this role as well if he can pack on another 25 lbs.
We also need our 5s to be much, much more strong and athletic. I don't care if they can't hit a shot outside 10 feet -- they need to be above the rim players that can protect the rim / rebound on D and set good screens and roll / finish at the hoop on O. We had this with McGary and 4 guards and we were the most efficient O in the country.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:58 AM ^
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March 14th, 2016 at 12:53 PM ^
Are you sure you want to see Doyle dribble to the rack?? I don't think my eyes could take that.
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McGary didn't often and he was an anomoly. We just need our 5s to finish off the pick and roll, which our guys do a decent job of, Donnal especially lately. Being able to make 3s off the pick and pop would be even better but it's very hard to find Frank Kaminsky types that can also protect the rim, which is the most important thing you need your 5 to do. And that's a big reason why our defense has killed us all year. Our 5s can't protect the rim.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:50 PM ^
You sure Kevin Durant or Kevin Garnett aren't more prototypical 4s?
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would be a perfect Beilein 5. There's no way Garnett would be anything other than a 5 for Beilein, but he's a prototype nonetheless.
The crunch time (aka small ball) lineups of the NBA (e.g., Ibaka/Green/Garnett at center, Lebron/Durant/Melo/George/Khwai at PF) are what Beilein wants all the time.
All moot, because Beilein isn't recruiting any bigs of that caliber right now. You might as well say Magic Johnson is the prototypical Beilein PG as Dray Green is the prototypical Beilein 4. Those guys are great and do it all - so, great. But a future HOF is (probably) not walking through the door, so we can look at more realistic examples, even for 'protoypes'.
What Beilein CAN hope to do is get an athletic wing (like GR3 or Jaylen Brown or Jesean Tate) who can play the 4 capably and exploit offensive mismatches. I bet if Beilein had been successful in recruiting Denzel Valentine, he'd be playing 4 for us too.
To me - THAT's the (realistic) offensive prototype. An athletic wing, strong enough to put up a fight inside, versatile enough skillset to create matchup problems on offense. He does not have to be a great shooter, just a competant one.
I mean who wouldn't want either of them on the team, but I was referring to wanting someone that has the versatility to bang inside on D but then also step outside on O and/or finish at the rim. While they are HoF players, I'm not sure Durant or Garnett check all 3 of those boxes. Garnett is close, but I think Beilein wants more of an outside shooter at that spot.
Yet the best Beilein 4 ever was GR3 and he recruited Jaylen Brown, Jesean Tate, and Kam Chatman for the position too - none of whom can shoot especially well.
There is no question Beilein has interest in shooters who can play the 4, just as he like shooters at every other position...but Beilein's also shown interest in getting athletes who can attack the rim (from PGs like Morris to combo guards like MAAR and Carlton Brundidge to wings like GR3).
I agree with some of what you've said, but Golden State's "small-ball" lineup is the one that's really tearing up the league, and in that lineup Draymond plays the 5, not the 4.
Curry, Klay Thompson, Iguodala (when healthy), Barnes, Green. That's a tiny NBA lineup that forces opponents to go small or get murdered in transition and on O.
Instead of having a physical 4, GS uses a bunch of athletic guys who run, cover, and attack the boards to make up for their lack of size. On offense, absolutely no one can match up with them.
Of course, they can and do go bigger with Bogut, Speights and Varejao, but heck, it's the NBA, not college.
I think Chatman's slow development really hurt. I hope he and Dawkins can become legit players to give us the versatility we need. It also hurts that Walton is not a classic distributor, and Robinson is a liability on defense.
I totally agree with what you said about the 5. JB's system works when we have an athletic, strong 5 - doesn't have to be huge, but has to be quick, mobile and strong enough to box out. Both Morgan and McGary could do that.
Bielfeldt and Donnal are less effective in JB's system because they're just not that quick or powerful. That's the missing piece in this year's team IMO.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:38 AM ^
Irvin plays the 4 on defense only. In the offensive sets, he plays Nik's old role. He is forced to guard the 4 because obviously Duncan will get killed there.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:41 AM ^
Where are you now, Kevin Pittsnogle, with your silky jumper and your awesome name? Now there was a Beilein 4 who could get the job done.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:53 PM ^
Pittsnogle was a smooth shooting big that fit perfectly in JB's offesnive system, but he was a 5. Here's WV's 2005-06 major scoring lineup:
Pittsnogle (6-11) 19.3 pts 5.5 reb
Gansey (6-4) 16.8 pts 5.7 reb
Herber (6-6) 9.3 pts 3.5 reb
Beilein (6-4) 8.0 pts 2.2 reb
Young (6-5) 7.4 pts 3.5 reb
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March 14th, 2016 at 11:43 AM ^
This basketball discussion is straight out of 1973. You are looking at it all wrong. If Irvin was healthy and shooting his normal % from 3 most teams and namely Purdue would have to bench your "banger" down low because his offensive advantage in the post would be far less than the defensive issues he creates by constantly being out of position trying to guard our 4.
The problem has not been being outsized at the 4. The problem has been our 4 has not produced because the back injury has made him about 60% of the player he was in past years. Watch an NBA game. Most 4's are being phased out in the 4th qtr because they can't play defense.
All the advanced metrics and stats point to Beilien being correct. These arguments remind me of the Red Wings fans who constantly complain about the Wings finesse style after one of the greatest 25 year runs in sports history.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:51 AM ^
Difference between NBA and college is talent, and that makes it harder to have versatile 4s. You're definitely right regarding the changes in the way pro basketball is played, but it's a hellavu lot easier to move toward "small" 4's when you've got 6'11" guys like Durant who can handle better than most college PGs or a super strong 6'7 PF like Draymond Green who can play multiple spots and guard almost anyone on the floor.
That type of talent is rare in college, making it much harder to play that style of ball.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:10 PM ^
that durant guy just keeps growing
This is right on about the changing place of the 4 in modern basketball.
We're not seen the advantages because of Irvin's struggles after back surgery and also because our ball movement/offensive flow hasn't been great. One of the things you see in the NBA, even with the shorter shot clock, is bigger 4s being run through 3 and 4 pick and rolls a possession. Combined with ball movement that switches the point of attack quickly around the court, big 4s struggle to hedge and recover and can get caught in bad switches.
Too often, we only run 1 or 2 pick and rolls a possession, which doesn't stress the defense much, and stay on one side of the floor (Dakich is really good at pointing this out) which limits the amount of space defenders have to cover. We also lack players other than MAAR and Walton that can take advantage of bad switches by beating guys off the dribble. (This is where losing Caris really hurts). We've also got a bunch of subpar defenders, which limits the ability of such a lineup to extend pressure up the floor.
In short, the philosophy behind the system is sound, but it's not being run to its optimal ability and it's being run by players with limited skill sets. That's in part due to injury, in part to recruiting, in part to coaching.
Irvin's getting the bulk of the defensive attention because he's the best offensive player Michigan has. AND he's being asked to guard guys like Swanigen on the other end. You can't expect a guy to do it all AND be hyper efficient unless he has help all around him.
Stauskas didn't have the defensive burden and was surround by NBA players and a 5th year senior center. (He had LeVert, Robinson, Morgan, Horford, Irvin, Walton, Albrecht, and sometimes McGary to pass to, while Irvin has...a lot less.)
The last paragraph is spot on. Michigan had 2 bad years in recruiting, lost both of it's seniors and best player to injury, and STILL made the tournament.
Next year, with experience being a major asset and bolstered by a strong recruiting class, Michigan should be back to contending for a Big Ten title.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:49 AM ^
Chatman was the starter at the beginning of the season at that spot, not Irvin.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:01 PM ^
I don't think Beilein really WANTS to play an undersized PF on the floor at all. I think he'd like to plug someone like DeShawn Sims or Lavall Blanchard in there so they can still shoot but also have the height and willingness to defend and rebound bigger guys. The issue is that it is pretty hard to find big guys who are still talented shooters to stretch the floor. You won't see a Carter (MD) or Swanigan (PU) at PF....but it doesn't have to be Novak, GR3, or Irvin.
In fact, there's clear evidence that Beilein has been trying to address this problem. Immediately after the NBA attrition started he went out and recruited 5-star Chatman and 4-star Wilson to play the PF spot for this team. The plan last year was for his stud freshman to come in and play significant minutes at the PF spot - not for Irvin/Dawkins to play the forwards the entire time.
The issue is that neither Chatman or Wilson have justified playing them more than a handful of minutes per game.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:09 PM ^
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March 14th, 2016 at 12:12 PM ^
top 30 on some sites; likely no worse than 50 anywhere.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:22 PM ^
Scout had him as a 5 star at #23 overall. 247(27) and Rivals(25) were not far behind and had him as their first 4 star.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:20 PM ^
My guess is that this team will always have defensive mismatches up front, but the hope is that a healthy and efficient Irvin (or future 4s) can offset those weaknesses, or a 5 emerges who can defend at the rim well enough to mitigate this somewhat.
But it's also difficult to find these stretch 4s who can also shoot AND want to play at UM instead of, say, playing one year at UK and then going to the NBA. Some of it is recruiting, but also some of it is just getting a guy in your system for 4-5 years and having that guy develop into a competent player. That's why I'm excited about Teske and Davis because they should be able to grow into the system, and at least Teske seems to have the ability to be a two-way player at that 4/5 spot.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:29 PM ^
March 14th, 2016 at 12:29 PM ^
80% of the time. They are PHYSICALLY outmatched, but so are Steph Curry and Draymond Green.
Michigan's 4s give as good as they get. The number of times we've lost because the opposition is pounding it inside on our 4-man is ...almost never. Blake Griffin punked us, but that was Blake Griffin. Julius Randle greatly affected the outcome of that game...but we're talking about NBA lottery picks - you're going to struggle against those guys no matter what.
The FAR bigger problems is that the centers are physically outmatched. Because those guys DON'T get it back on the other end.
It's the 5 that really hurts us. Not just getting back though - our current bigs don't have the quickness or strength to prevent easy buckets inside. McGary and even Morgan could hold their ground and force entry passes a step further from the basket, and they could block out.
Donnal has shown tantalizing flashes on both ends where he's really effective; hopefully he continues to improve. Doyle has the frame and long arms (and pleny of sweat). Maybe one of the new guys can provide some quality minutes.
If Chatman can develop that would really help, because he could potentially be a bigger presence around the basket to help our 5's. Robinson will get stronger, but it's doubtful he'll ever be anything but a liability on the defensive end.
Maybe our depth next year can keep lots of fresh legs on the floor.
But he's just not a match against NBA-caliber players or even physically imposing college guys.
Doyle (and hopefully) Teske and Davis are they type of guys Michigan needs at center. Wilson and Wagner could be quality backups and matchup plays if they bulk up a bit, but only as a change of pace from the more physical starter.
Agree on Chatman, he's theoretically a great fit at the 4 if he keeps hustling and plays smarter on offense. So is Irvin, so was Novak, and of course the prototype - GR3. Its never going to be Wilson or Donnal at the 4.
Robinson COULD be a good option at the 4 given his height, but he's just not strong or quick enough and isn't going to get there given he's a junior already.
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That's absolutely right. That said, competent may be ok. He is no match against NBA-caliber guys, but maybe we could throw an army of our bigs against that type and survive.
Donnal really surpasses anyone else we currently have in half-court offense. When he's on, he is a really effective pick and roll guy, and we desperately need an inside presence to bring more open looks outside.
I really like the idea of Chatman starting and Robinson coming in for instant offense. I think Robinson got tired later in the season, and he just cannot play defense. He could be an efficient 15 point a game guy with 20 mpg off the bench.
March 14th, 2016 at 11:59 PM ^
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March 14th, 2016 at 12:31 PM ^
I appreciate that some people on here get it. This matchup is key to JB's strategy. In most games down the stretch, it may have looked painful, but we out produced almost every game at the 4/5 positions. Obviously, the final game was an exception. Although, you did see their 4 have to sit to avoid matching up with Zak.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:56 PM ^
Like it usually doesn't with these tweener 4/5 guys. Smotrycz was at his most effective at the 5 (where he was a matchup problem for opposing Cs). Same thing with Sims.
The 'prototype' Beilein 4 ends up moving to the 5, because the offense functions better with him there.
I think Beilein is wrong here. He should be going for GR3, Irvin, Jaylon Brown for the 4 -- athletes who can bang just good enough to be respectable on D and then exploit the mismatch on the other end with speed and skill.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:34 PM ^
I'm in the camp that has more of an issue with our 5's (the ones not named Jordan Morgan, C, Sr.). I'm going to stab myself in the eye if I see these guys slap a pass OB after a good p&r - that is if they don't get ignored outright.
March 14th, 2016 at 12:38 PM ^
March 14th, 2016 at 12:44 PM ^
He was starting to realize he could take guys off the dribble toward the end of his Michigan career. People were worried about Tennessee battering Michigan inside in the tournament a couple of years ago, but Michigan had an advantage with Robinson at the four. The Vol's PF couldn't stay in front of him.
I get this team will never be a bunch of 7 foot Monstars as long as Beilein is around. And that's fine. Just not his style. What I've wondered is why we can't find a halfway decent center who can defend the rim? Watching Purdue on Saturday, or just about any other team with some kind of size on the inside, it's almost laughable to see how easy it is for other teams to score on us in the paint. Purdue made it look like child's play.
Not saying we need to go out and be recruiting McGarys every year. That was an extreme outlier with somehow snagging him. But how are we not able to at least find a decent big body to throw into the middle of the paint? Even a guy like J-Mo, who was a highly under the radar kind of recruit, was a godsend for us on defense.
I hope Teske fits that mold as well, because otherwise we're going to continue getting absolutely abused and manhandled on the inside for the foreseeable future.
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I dont think thats fair. Coach Beilein's teams can play with anybody. usually that is. Our 2015-16 iteration has been inconsistent but on a good day we can still put on a good show. Going forward Beilein will have to fight off the stigma that our offense is not conducive to developing big men. We could most certainly use a guy who can score on the low blocks and I'm sure Beilein realizes this. We just haven't had that kind of personel around here in ages...
Uh, who the hell knows. Pittsnogle could shoot and bang down low. It's about finding the right recruit to fit the system.
But yes, if he had to choose, he would take shooting over physicality. As rare a find as a Draymond Green, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rasheed Wallace, etc are, Belein's system would be basically unstoppable with a 4 that can shoot consistently from 20 feet out and grab 8-10 boards a game while playing nasty post defense. So, in theory, it could be addressed in recruiting, but we seem to continually strike out there on all top targets.
The Izzo model of having 2 skill players and 3 Detroit grinders on the court is quite successful until they run into a team with skill at 4 or all 5 starting positions (Kentucky, Duke, Uconn, etc).
The years we had skill across the board and went to the championship game and elite 8, the Izzo model was exposed as grinder Big Ten basketball with a lower ceiling. That being said, the floor to that model is much higher, as we have seen with our "soft" interior post play crushing our ability to exploit skill and shooting in transition, and MSU always being at least a top 20ish team at worst.
I'd take the Belien system with the right recruits at the 3 and the 4 all day, as it has a much higher ceiling and is much more pleasant to watch. That being said, if my aunt had a schlong, she'd be my uncle....and recruiting remains a huge "IF" in our program's current state.
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Kam is the guy who can play 4, infact I think our best lineup vs Purdue was:
1.Walton
2.Irving
3.Duncan
4. Kam
5.Wagner
I like MAAR and 2 or 1 here also.
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as well. I like Irvin at the 2 with Abdul-Rachman backing him up. Walton/X at the point and Robinson, Dawkins at the 3. Let the remaining big guys battle it out for time at the 4 & 5.
Yes, they will always get beaten up down low. Beilein will never win a regular season championship, big ten tournament, or make the elite 8 before he retires. Sad but true. He's too easy to recruit against.
Beilein's made 2 elite 8s and won 2 regular season titles while at Michigan.
Happy and true facts.
He won one outright and that's only because MSU had injuries. They were clearly the better team that year. The year they made the championship game they finished 5th in the Big Ten. He can only hang his hat on one tournament run for so long.
You said he couldn't. He did. Twice. In the last 5 seasons. He won two Big Ten Titles and went to two Elite 8s (and went to another at WVU). Now you're trying to qualify it, in order to give it an asterisk, but it'll never have that.
2012 - Michigan finished tied for 1st in the B1G and split with both Indiana and MSU (+10 vs IU, -9 vs MSU, MSU split with Indiana and was even in point margin). Michigan finished #13 in the AP poll (stops at end of regular season).
2013 - Michigan finished 4th in the B1G (a tip in at the buzzer against IU away from back-to-back B1G titles). They lost to IU twice, and split with MSU and OSU (the two teams that finished t-2). They finished the season #10 in the AP poll and went on to the NCAA finals.
2014 - Michigan won the B1G by 3 games. They swept MSU in the regular season. They finished #7 in the AP.
Those are the facts. No astericks. Tied for it, and won it outright by 3 games. Went to two elite 8s. You said he'd never do it. He did. And you can't play the "but MSU was injured" card that year and not apply it to Michigan the past two years. Injuries happen in sports, they are part of the game, you don't get to take things away because another team was injured, just like you can't take something away from someone else just because your team was injured. The results are what happens on the field of play, every, single, time.