Where will UM be in the BCS standings?

As long as UM is in the top 14 a BCS bowl can pick 'em. It seems the consensus is that if the Sugar Bowl can, it will. Would have liked to play an undefeated Houston, though.

Absolutely nobody on earth has any clue what will happen.  Chances of us getting to a BCS are... decent?  i think?  i dont know.  Im not smart enough to figure out any of this.  I need smarter people to explain it to me, but I don't trust them either.

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Recent ones I can find...

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_college/2011/12/2011-bowl-projections-week-14.html

http://cfn.scout.com/2/557866.html

 

Thats what I can find for now... please add if you all find more!

MOAR PROJECTIONS! Now GO!!!!

We cannot play Alabama because of the pick order.

If Okie State passes Alabama, the order is:

Sugar Bowl (replacing LSU)

Fiesta Bowl (replacing OkSU)

Fiesta Bowl (rotating first pick, they've got it this year)

Sugar Bowl

Orange Bowl

Sugar would take Alabama, obviously.  Fiesta then has the next two picks: Stanford is guaranteed a spot for finishing #4, TCU probably gets in at #16, West Virginia as the Big East winner and then basically between us and Virginia Tech, and we win that comparison.  So Fiesta takes us and Stanford because: duh.  Sugar then might take WVU over TCU, it's hard to say.

Calculus if Alabama gets the nod:

Sugar picks first to replace LSU and goes with us becuase we're rich.  Then Fiesta picks someone to play OkSU who is there for sure because of Big 12 contracts.  They take Stanford.  Then Sugar picks between WVU and TCU as before.

 I hate to say it, but I think Michigan finishes #15 in the BCS:

- Because of the close game, MSU stays ahead of UM.

- Despite getting crushed by Ok.State, Oklahoma will stay solid in the computer polls, drop in the human polls, but still stay ahead of Michigan in the total BCS rankings.

- Baylor will pass Michigan in the BCS.  The computer polls love the Big Eight.

- Michigan will pass Houston and Georgia.

Add up all of the above, and Michigan moves up one spot, to #15.

I hope I am wrong.

Clemson dominating Va Tech will certainly move them into the top 15, maybe 14.  MSU playing very well tonight could be a huge problem.  The BCS doesn't seem to love UM so much, dropping them despite winning last week.  MSU could stay ahead of Michigan because of their head-to-head even with three losses.

Baylor shouldn't jump us, but Oklahoma may stay ahead, because they are ...well...Oklahoma.  If Oklahoma drops out, Baylor might replace them on the strength of RG III's popularity and Heisman swag.

It will be close and I think we........get 14th...or...15th.

MSU is a good team and they played well.  Although Lewis did a boneheaded thing, that was a fairly lame running into the kicker call.  I think MSU would fair batter than Wisco against Oregon, but both would get embarassed in the end.  Wisconsin will not be able to keep up with Oregon, I don't think.  Their defense will get gashed.

After watching Houston get thrashed, I wish they would have won and we could have played them.  I think we could have pounded them.  Keenum's ability to pass for so many yards and TDs had me rooting for Southwest Missouri.  If we get in, who will we get.  I think if we get in now, the opponent could be tougher than Houston.  If we get Arkansas, that might not be a good thing.

Dropping behind us:  Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Georgia, Sparty, Houston

Possibly leaping us:  Baylor  (i be like DANG those guys can play this year)

Personally, I'd put the Pokes in the NCG, so Bama in Sugar, UM plays Stanford in Fiesta.  (My undergrad v. my grad) (and there's no twinge of conflict in me, I bleed Maize n Blue).  But if its Bama vs the Mad Hatter, then we play TCU in Sugar.  Either way.. SUH-WEEEET!

These teams rated above us lost:

#5 Virginia Tech (by 28)

#6 Houston (by 21)

#10 Oklahoma (by 34)

#13 Michigan State (by 3)

#14 Georgia (by 32)

These teams ranked within 6 spots of us won:

#17 Baylor (by 24 over #22 Texas)

#18 TCU (by 47 over UNLV)

#20 Clemson (by 28 over #5 Virginia Tech)

For us to make the BCS we must net 2 positions.  Of the teams ahead of us that lost there's no doubt Oklahoma and Georgia will drop behind us, and I think there's a good chance Michigan State and Houston do too.  I also don't think there's any way for TCU to jump us (UNLV is just too bad for the win to mean much).  

So even if Baylor and Clemson both jump us we're in as long as either Michigan State or Houston drop below us.  I like those odds.

For everyone who is just so thrilled at the possibility of a match-up with Bama in the Sugar: it isn't a good thing to think our growing team with a first-year coach would benefit from getting their teeth stomped out the back of their heads against what is probably the only team in the country (including some NFL teams) that could match up with LSU.  It would be humiliating and would probably only serve to psych Michigan out before their game next year.  It's the first year of a new coaching regime, a win in the BCS would be so much better than a royal ass crushing.

Currently:  16th

 

No. 6 Houston: Destroyed by no. 24 Southern Miss.  One loss with the rest of their joke of a schedule wll cause them to plummet down the polls.  UM will be ahead of them.

No. 10 Oklahoma: Destroyed by no. 3 Okie St.  Will they drop far enough to fall behind UM?  Unsure.

No. 13 Sparty: Lost in epic SPARTY NO fashion to No. 15 Wisconsin, should fall below UM with three losses, however, no. 15 Wisconsin will move up.

No. 14 Georgia: Destroyed by LSU (in the 2nd half anyways), will fall below UM.

Depending on how badly they shoot up Clemson for beating VT again, and what they do with Baylor, I'd pin UM at around 13, should certainly be in the top 14.

K, so we pass Houston, MSU, Georgia, and Wisconsin = 12

But, Baylor will probably pass us up. But could TCU and Clemosn pass us too? That would give us #15...

little nervous to be honest.  I think UM should pass Houston, Georgia and Oklahoma (provided the human voters drop them way down like they should). Not so sure they pass MSU and  Virginia Tech though. Both Baylor (even though they don't deserve it) and Clemson could pass UM. That is what makes me nervous, because regardless of what ends up happening it will be close.

I still think it is  joke that K-State is in front of Michigan, based on what I have seen watching a couple of their games. They basically have a slower bruising version of Denard at QB, worse skill position players than Michigan and a defense that is statistically worse than UM's by a good margin.

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you couldn't play in the National Championship game if you didn't win your conference.  Michigan had its shot to beat Ohio, then it was someone else's turn.

 

This year you don't have to win your conference because the BCS is infected with SEC bias and flat out bullcrap lobbying.

Just so you guys know the stuff used for the computers doesn't use margin of victory so the amount sparty lost by doesn't really matter, I guess it could impact the human polls but they are really gonna get hurt in the computers, close lose or blowout just doesn't impact the computers.

No way tcu passes us and I would be shocked if clemson did

Even if the BCS does not ditch the LSA/Alabama rematch (which it should; OK State made their case today), the delta between the teams dropping and teams moving up should get us to 14.

Why is everyone thinking we won't jump MSU?  They are a three loss team who got destroyed by two teams we beat.  Losing late is always the worst thing to happen to one's BCS dreams.

My prediction:

1. LSU

2. Alabama

3. Oklahoma State

4. Stanford

5. Boise State

6. Arkansas

7. Oregon

8. Kansas State

9. South Carolina

10. Wisconsin

11. Baylor

12. Michigan

13. TCU

14. Clemson

15. Michigan State