Thoughts ?
So, I hate to be right.
I previously posted that MSU will eek it out against PSU (once I get to a computer I can copy screen shot of my comment as proof or just search my post history). And lo and behold they beat PSU .
Next I pretty much said M will dominate and win against Wisconsin in Sheth's FFFF piece where he made Wisconsin in Alabama. Heck I even went on with stephenjrking - noted poster here - you guys are welcome to double check that.
For my mental BPONE though , I just want some justification re:MSU. Specifically
1. While OSU is explainable - superior talent- how the F does MSU beat top teams ? Are we discounting their talent (based on just recruiting rankings ?)
2. Lewerke is good. He's no Heisman candidate but he is clutch. Agianst how the F does MSU find these guys or develop them stretching back to hoyer days ?
3. Is their Oline really bad or is it perception ? And if bad how did it magically rocked agaisnt PSU? (Any game summary of that game as to why PSU that the bed would help, I ddint see it and refuse to see it as I hate dantonio alot)
4. Why do teams shit the bed against quarters D and if it's that great why isn't M running it?
Tl;Dr version: MSU good or lucky? If good then how do they do it ? I hate thier institution but I want to have similar guts (looks like M is getting there thoguh !)
October 15th, 2018 at 8:52 AM ^
We've never won easily playing MSU under Dantonio, and we've not played well on the road under Harbaugh, so I think we have to settle in for a tough game. However, the stars could align and we could drop a 45 point victory on them the way OSU did in East Lansing last year. That would be terrific.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:05 PM ^
I actually watched a lot of those games. They absolutely have been very lucky in most of them. Don't get me wrong, they facilitate their luck by being well prepared and have a way of staying in games they have no business being in. But as improbable as it sounds, they have been the recipients of a lot of luck over the past 10 years.
That said, underestimate them at your own peril (these words are obviously meant for actual football players/coaches and not people on message boards).
October 14th, 2018 at 6:05 PM ^
It does sound improbable. In fact, it seems much more probable that Dantonio is good at finding ways to win and stats have a hard time capturing why that is.
October 14th, 2018 at 11:44 PM ^
Except for when he doesn’t and has a season that MSU goes around .500 with the same talent level as all the other double digit win teams. I wonder why Dantonio forgets how to coach every 3 years or so and then remembers the next couple years
October 14th, 2018 at 5:25 PM ^
they deserve to get pasted this week...and they will...
October 14th, 2018 at 4:49 PM ^
They muck the game up and try to take advantage of things like holding in the secondary and faking injuries to save timeouts during last minute drives. This keeps the game close and usually gives them a shot in the game.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:16 PM ^
Michigan should give the refs a heads up about MSU holding, late hits, etc. They did that with the roughing the long snapper and it got called.
October 14th, 2018 at 4:51 PM ^
Why would anyone think MSU is lucky? They've won 10 out of their last 15 games against top 10 opponents. That's good game planning and management. Dantonio is a great coach.
October 14th, 2018 at 4:53 PM ^
Nice thread title. Maybe stick with getting banned and starting new accounts.
October 14th, 2018 at 4:53 PM ^
Ron Utah thinks your post title stinks.
October 14th, 2018 at 4:53 PM ^
Keys to the game:
1) This may not be statistical or measurable, but they have to be as intense as MSU if not more.
2) Get off to a good start. Hopefully they can grab the lead early which will allow them to dictate how the game is played. If MSU has one of their patented 9 minute drives early, it's going to be time to hit the Pepto.
3) Just win.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:12 PM ^
I don't think they can have a 9 minute drive with their total inability to run the ball.
October 14th, 2018 at 6:10 PM ^
Call me paranoid, but until Michigan executes as expected against MSU I'm going to assume the worst. I hope their running struggles stay consistent, but you know they have wrinkles stored up specifically for this game.
October 14th, 2018 at 4:55 PM ^
HOrrible thread title is horrible
October 14th, 2018 at 4:58 PM ^
What would Ron say?
October 14th, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^
Michigan doesn't run quarters because they don't need to. Michigan has the top defense in the country.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^
I assume from the thread title that this is a thread for posting random thoughts, so here's mine: why is it that with college football we refer to it as the "playoff" (singular) but in literally every other sport its the "playoffs" (plural)?
October 14th, 2018 at 5:55 PM ^
My guess is because it's a single playoff round before the championship game. Like a playoff hole in golf or a one game playoff if there's a tie in the standings in baseball.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:12 PM ^
I thought every reply here would have been bitching about the thread title.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:13 PM ^
Dan Tonio is a good coach, he has kids rabid when they see us. The big difference is we have a QB that make plays with his arms and legs, and isn’t turnover prone.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:13 PM ^
Tldr should go at the beginning, fyi.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:15 PM ^
We haven't seen a healthy MSU OL yet. That one may be bad, too, but with Chewins finally playing full games and Jarvis likely back, this will be the closest they've been to full strength all year (and at times they've been down 4 starters).
October 14th, 2018 at 5:15 PM ^
Maybe they are drinking Flint Water. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger, ya know?
October 14th, 2018 at 5:29 PM ^
MSU has also benefitted from opposing coaches consistently putting together horrendous game plans. 3 years ago against OSU, Urban Meyer forgot he could run the ball with Ezekiel Elliot.
Last year, Michigan tried to air it out with John O'Korn in a rain storm the entire second half.
This year, Franklin decided to attack a secondary that gave up 373 yards to Thorson by running 32 times and throwing a bunch of 3 yards throws that MSU could easily corall.
I think D'Antonio deserves some credit for this, because coaches consistently try to outthink him and end up outhinking themselves. But it definitely feels like this would even out over time and it really hasn't.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:31 PM ^
Spy Lewerke and put safety help on FD3. With all their injuries I really don’t see them winning if we do these successfully.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:32 PM ^
MSU beats top teams because they get lucky. It's not an excuse or exaggeration to say it. Non-partisan college football writers have pointed it out. It's backed up by stats. For instance, they had a 24% win probability yesterday.
I'm not sure why you're asserting that Lewerke is "good," considering he couldn't eek out a 50% completion rate on 52 throws. I don't know that he's "good" so much as Penn State's DBs can't catch a football. He's an OK QB. But so was Hornibrook coming into last night's game, and look what happened to him.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:53 PM ^
I want to believe this, but how can you be lucky for 10 years.
Sorry for horrible title thread. I just hate MSU but appreciate their mental toughness . May be we should get pointers from Fitzgerald how to beat these fuckers consistently. Like against Wisconsin how we out wisconsined them, I want M to outcoach and out tough rape U.
October 14th, 2018 at 6:03 PM ^
As to why they're always lucky, their M.O. is to play good defense, conservative offense to keep games close and hope something stupid happens at the end that benefits them. Mix in well designed trick plays that give them a boost.
While at a high level this doesn't make sense, in game, this games them a great sense of confidence to execute at the same time the opposition's confidence drops.
Don't underestimate the mental aspect of sports, especially when we're talking about 18-22 year old college kids.
October 14th, 2018 at 6:15 PM ^
Their luck does run out. Look at 2016. Michigan fans just refuse to remember that for whatever reason.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:37 PM ^
It's pretty simple. MSU has good defenses and that keeps you in a lot of games. Then, MSU often wins close games in large part because Dantonio avoids a lot of conventional game-management errors. (If only he could properly manage his players off the field, too.)
PSU, conversely, loses a lot of tossup games because Franklin makes a lot of conventional game-management errors. This is the guy that Hoke managed to outwit.
And there is an element of luck, too. Dantonio needed O'Neill to drop the punt snap to beat us, and he needed the PSU DB to drop an interception yesterday.
October 14th, 2018 at 6:40 PM ^
Dantonio avoids a lot of conventional game-management errors.
This is an excellent point. He let Franklin beat himself and Franklin is good at that (see zone read on 4th and 6 vs. OSU).
October 14th, 2018 at 7:06 PM ^
Yeah, the prime case in point was how they each handled a 4th down with about 1:45 left.
Against OSU, Franklin burned two timeouts, ensuring that the game would turn on that play, and then when it failed, it was over. Going for it was a fine decision, but burning those timeouts was not (and the playcall made no sense at all).
Against PSU, Dantonio punted, deciding to count on his defense getting a stop against Franklin's offense. It was a gamble, but he probably figured Franklin would go into clock-killing mode, and Franklin played into his hands. MSU used its timeouts and got the ball back with ample time.
October 14th, 2018 at 7:07 PM ^
I don't think that was zone read. It was an inside zone run with no read.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:37 PM ^
Look at Nostradamus ova eeer. Let me get a copy of ya almanac so I can make some mullah.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:55 PM ^
Good or lucky? Mostly good but I think it truly is a case of their staff being A+ at getting them in the mindset of underdogs. I really do. #dizrespekt is real with MSU, meme or not. I think their 21 loses to unranked opponents under MD is due to #dizrespekt ultimately being an unattainable constant. Human beings cannot ALWAYS be "on". It's a finite resource.
As for talent and execution, they're talented. I'm MUCH higher in Lewerke than most I hear speak about him. He has a good arm, usually makes the right read and has surprising mobility (somewhere between Shea and DCaff). He's a good QB and their QBs tend to not beat themselves in big games under Dantonio.
I don't think their OL is very good right now but they've done fine with less. They beat our ass a few years back with a converted 4th string Freshman DT having to switch to LG the week of our game. He played like an All-American. They get up for us (obviously).
Their defense is flat-out solid against th run. Force the run and you'll likely lose. Pass defense is a bit suspect.
All in all they're a solid team, definitely top-25, IMO. A bit of luck but every team needs a bit of luck at times. PSU didn't play a good game but MSU did what they've done for a decade under MD and won. It's not complicated and won't be as long as he's there. Hate him all you want, he's a very good coach. The demand many MSU fans had to remove him last week was comical then and especially now. He's the best they've had since the fucking 1960s. Yes, Saban included. Saban bounced ASAP due to the restrictions he had at MSU. You're #2 in an average HS Football State, surrounded by blue-blood powers. MD fits that culture perfectly and 2018 MSU is the possibly the perfect average of the types of teams he's had in his time there.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:56 PM ^
Toot toot!
October 14th, 2018 at 6:03 PM ^
Mick Dicktonio is a good coach who knows how to pump up his asshole team of miscreants, using a special cocktail of roids and disrespekt.
It's not luck. It's grit and determination.
October 14th, 2018 at 6:09 PM ^
One word, wet.
they beat ranked team after or during rain.
October 14th, 2018 at 6:10 PM ^
Staee is much better than their record. This is the biggest game of the Harbaugh era by far.
October 14th, 2018 at 6:49 PM ^
no their record is where it should be. Squeaking out a win against utah state and barely losing to az state. Id say theyre fortunate they are 4-2 but youre right this is the biggest game for harbaugh. He beats Michigan St and its essentially a two team race in the big 10 with Ohio St and Michigan
October 14th, 2018 at 6:17 PM ^
Sweet. Maybe you should start gambling.
October 14th, 2018 at 6:28 PM ^
Actually ramblings would be more like it but if you really want to know:
Mork as coach is kinda "shazbot" but as a motivator he's "na-nu na-nu" if you know what I mean. (Google Pam Dawber)
Think about it this way: is it easier to get a 17-22 year old alpha male to
a:) not disappoint an unappreciative fan base or
b:) prove an arrogant fan base full of haters who disrespkt me wrong?
That's exactly why MSU is more dangerous on the road and why they will have far less juice in their disrespkt kool-aid this Sat.
Let's face it, they've been big bro for a decade ......but somebody just went through a growth spurt.
October 14th, 2018 at 7:05 PM ^
You definitely hate being right, your spelling is right about half the time.
October 14th, 2018 at 7:07 PM ^
they usually are tough, physically and mentally, as an underdog, and better teams usually a bit tense and played not to lose against them, then they got some luck at the end.
October 14th, 2018 at 7:19 PM ^
Congratulations on your success. We definitely needed this opportunity to acknowledge it.
October 14th, 2018 at 7:33 PM ^
Well, the Spartans are feisty and play with no fear and never give up. Regardless of how much talent they have, they play the Wolverines as if their life depends upon winning. Even so, toughness only takes you so far. And on paper, they aren't as good as Michigan, and their run defense shields the fact that most teams would rather go after their secondary than stubbornly run at them.
In any case, they are beat up and playing inexperienced guys at most every skill position while their Oline remains in flux, having not started the same lineup six weeks straight. So, while they present a hard nut to crack, they are very crackable. And they don't have the requisite firepower to stay in any game that involves scoring more points than Michigan has allowed to any team this season, which is 24 to Notre Dame on the road. I don't think Sparty can muster that amount against Michigan.
October 14th, 2018 at 7:38 PM ^
dinner ?
October 14th, 2018 at 8:01 PM ^
Come get your neg son
October 14th, 2018 at 8:49 PM ^
Felton Davis quote from the Freep "We play better when we’ve got the chip on the shoulder.” No shit. But I think Sparty getting that win out of the way and again seeing themselves as relevant might be good for us. Less disrespekt always equals less focus and drive for Sparty. Maybe that's why they play so well on the road. They feed off negativity instead of accolades.
October 14th, 2018 at 8:55 PM ^
Thought? Here is a thought.
The last two times Michigan beat MSU by 10 points or more (2006 and 2002); Michigan State fired their coach as a result.
Let’s beat them by 10.