Stew Mandel's B1G Picks
Over on The Athletic, Stew Mandel has made some predictions. Nice little read. Here are some highlights (plenty more beyond this if you have a sub and care to read).
The Buckeyes remain the league’s most talented team, led by Heisman finalist quarterback CJ Stroud, though admittedly its offensive line and defensive front seven need to perform at a higher level.
In the East, I’m interested to see whether the Wolverines remain ahead of upstart rival Michigan State, whether Penn State can rebound after two mediocre seasons and whether Maryland and/or Rutgers can pull some surprises. (Poor Indiana sank to rock bottom in rapid fashion.)
In the West, I can see any of four teams — Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue or Wisconsin — getting to Indianapolis, though you’ll see below I’m predicting the Badgers to take a mini-slide. As for Nebraska … not seeing it.
Other highlights:
Player of the Year
Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Impact Transfer
Michigan State running backs Jarek Broussard and Jalen Berger
Impact Freshman
Penn State RB Nick Singleton
Coach most likely to get fired
Nebraska’s Scott Frost
Impact Assistant
Minnesota OC Kirk Ciarrocca
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:09 PM ^
9-3 huh
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:08 PM ^
All he did is take last year's standings and tweaked them to put Ohio State over Michigan. Pretty much everything else is just a copy / paste of 2021, even the individual predictions.
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:54 PM ^
Really went out on a limb there, didn't he?
August 23rd, 2022 at 6:15 PM ^
We went 11-1, so losing tOSU game would make us 10-2, not 9-3.
August 23rd, 2022 at 6:28 PM ^
He has 5 teams projected at 6-3 in the B1G. Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Iowa and Minnesota. C'mon man, that's just gutless fence sitting. Predict something!!
Also, there is NO WAY we lose to Sparty this year. But then I've said that the past two years.
August 23rd, 2022 at 6:44 PM ^
It kind of is fence sitting. He had a 3 way tie in the east for 2nd place. He had lots of wiggle room to say that anyone of those teams finishing 2nd through 4th he got right.
August 24th, 2022 at 5:09 PM ^
Speaking of fence sitting, I wonder if he prefers sideways or athwart, one leg on each side and the top of the fence snug up in there.
August 23rd, 2022 at 8:34 PM ^
You took it a bit too literally - what I meant was that he basically picked the exact same order in the standings from 2021 to 2022 except that he flipped Michigan and Ohio State.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:11 PM ^
I'm curious who Stew has as Michigan's 3 losses. I guess Ohio State and then 2 of PSU, MSU and Iowa? Dropping 2 of 3 plus OSU, with as much firepower on offense as we have coming back (understanding the question marks on D) still feels like a pretty big letdown.
I like 10-2 as our floor myself. But call me ever the eternal optimist.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:39 PM ^
If PSU/MSU are good enough to beat Michigan then where do they get their 3 losses? Each will lose one to OSU, and one of them loses to the other. That's still 3 losses unaccounted for. Again, this is assuming BOTH of these teams are good enough to beat Michigan on the road.
August 23rd, 2022 at 6:47 PM ^
Since OSU is 9-0 that is a loss for all 3.
I am assuming he has us going 1-1 vs PSU and MSU, with a loss on the road to Iowa.
Then he'd have PSU and MSU also dropping 1 crossover game.
August 24th, 2022 at 10:12 PM ^
Iowa - at Iowa - makes me nervous. Yes, I know they have an average offense but that defense will be rock solid with - maybe - the 2 best defensive players in the league. And that place will be loud as they've been waiting on this one for a year.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:21 PM ^
6-3 in the Big Ten seems on the pessimistic side but its possible I guess. He must be assuming we lose 2 of 3 @Iowa, MSU, and PSU which....I dunno. Michigan's got a lot of talent even with the loss of the stars on defense. 7-2 is probably the most likely outcome
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:37 PM ^
@Iowa is only scary due to the location. But even with that caveat, how is Iowa gonna score? Their offense was already "meh" last year, and now it's likely to be worse without their leading rusher, same QB/OC pairing that inspires zero fear, and the loss of their best linemen. If we score 20 points, we win.
Penn State is another one I don't see us losing, as their OL needs to be worlds better (it never has been under Franklin) and their defense, which typically keeps them in most games, is replacing a lot of dudes AND their DC who's held that job since 2016. And they never play well in Ann Arbor (2020 doesn't count).
I will admit that the Sparty game is terrifying, because they play above their potential vs us and home field advantage rarely helps in that series (see the games from 2020, 2017, 2015, 2013, 2011, etc.) And other than Iowa, they're the team most well equipped to stop the run. It likely comes down to how their OL improves (if at all) and how big the dropoff is from Kenneth Walker III to this year's starter (could be a decent drop, or it could be a disastrous drop)
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:21 PM ^
9-3 should get HARBAUGH fired
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:25 PM ^
What, so we can go on another rip of losing seasons?
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:15 PM ^
You often seem like a fountain of dumb takes.
August 23rd, 2022 at 6:40 PM ^
Username checks out. If you’re gonna be dumb you gotta be tough.
August 23rd, 2022 at 6:47 PM ^
Why all CAPS on Harbaugh, dork?
August 25th, 2022 at 4:39 AM ^
The Flintstones was a dumbass show to begin with, but BammBamm was the cherry on the stupid Hanna-Barbera sundae.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:22 PM ^
I think we are better than 9-3 but it isn't that crazy of a prediction. OSU on the road is tough. Maybe a loss to PSU, MSU or Iowa and then a fluke somewhere like Nebraska. I think we are more likely to be 11-1 than 9-3 but I get it. We could have lost to PSU and Nebraska last year. We were screwed in the MSU game, but swing games have a way of evening out.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:23 PM ^
For me, the fate of the season (and humanity at large, of course) rests on how the two new coordinators turn out, especially on defense since Minter not only has some major losses to replace, but big shoes to fill (albeit those of a predecessor who turned out to be a one-year rental from the NFL). If the new coordinators are home runs and the transition ends up being seamless (or, better yet, an upgrade), then the sky is the limit. If they struggle, then 2021 will turn out to have been a one-off and the B1G will continue to belong to Ohio State.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:47 PM ^
I'm pretty hopeful about this. Matt Weiss seems like an analytical guy, and I think should be able to reap the rewards that have already been planted and developed. 8 of the schools we play, Michigan should just pave, so I'm hopeful we can go 2-2 or better against the top 4 defenses (one of which has a suspect offense).
On the other end, I think the continuity hire is a great move, and getting a guy who actually ahs been at the college level should help some of the kinks we saw last year. We def lost some talent but generally, M has put good Ds on the field the past decade. We have competent position coaches, and the players should know the system - so let the talent cook.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:56 PM ^
It's a very legit concern. Coordinators have a massive influence on team success.
I am cautiously optimistic that Michigan should be able to keep the train rolling on offense. I blamed Harbaugh for a lot of the struggles the offense has had during his tenure, and I'm not going to shy from assigning him responsibility in seeing the offense make massive strides and look very impressive last year.
They aren't required to forget every principle or play Gattis brought to the table, and the success they've had means that they don't have to overhaul a bunch of stuff like they did in the middle of Harbaugh's tenure when the offense just wasn't working. Weiss and Moore both had hands in the offense before; seems reasonable to hope that they'll keep the ship steady with Gattis gone.
I don't think there is any excuse for the offense not to be elite this year.
I have no idea what to expect from the defense; the good news is that we get a number of games against minnows to get things working. DE is a big question mark, but it's not unreasonable to hope for serious growth at DB and LB and perhaps DT, and if those reasonable things all occur, our personnel at least will be in decent shape.
But how they're coached? I have no idea.
August 23rd, 2022 at 7:31 PM ^
Matt Weiss was a home run in everything he did at Baltimore. And I would bet the huge improvement in the offense last year was mostly him. For Minter, I have no Idea what to think. But I want to think that since he was recommended by Mike Macdonald, he will be good.
August 23rd, 2022 at 8:13 PM ^
Minter has vastly more experience coaching college than MacDonald did and though at Vandy, at least was still a DC in the SEC. IMO he'll be as good or better b/c of his experience. And recruiting-wise he'll be better by far.
August 24th, 2022 at 4:56 AM ^
I hope you're right. But I hesitate to believe he's better than Mike Macdonald. Mike Macdonald is a different kind of bird.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:26 PM ^
11-1
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:36 PM ^
I'm Eastside Maize and I approve this message.
August 24th, 2022 at 10:17 PM ^
Yep, 11-1 or 10-2 at the very worst. Iowa makes me nervous
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:26 PM ^
Michigan seems to be more or less written off this year. 9-3 would feel a little like a letdown coming off of a playoff appearance and conference championship.
I am assuming he predicts losses @Iowa and @Ohio State as well as splitting MSU/PSU. Not unreasonable I suppose but I’m hoping last season was a breakthrough of the Harbaugh era.
Replacing both coordinators is a concern as well as the big losses on defense. Hoping we can put together an 11-1 or 12-0 season despite the doubt. Wouldn’t that be nice?
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:26 PM ^
I love the Athletic, but they have 2 national CFB writers, Stew and OSU homer Ari Wasserman, that despise the Wolverines. Stewart will go negative on Michigan any chance he can, and he apparently did so here. Given Michigan's favorable schedule, a 9-3 finish would definitely be a disappointment.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:33 PM ^
Agree. The Athletic is worth the money, but those two just don't act in good faith.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:40 PM ^
On the other side, Nicole Auerbach (UM grad) is phenomenal. Not only is she likely the best journalist at the Athletic, I think she's one of the best sports journalists in the industry. Bruce Feldman, Max Olson and Andy Staples also do a good, balanced job covering CFB for The Athletic
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:04 PM ^
Agree here. It's more than Stew and Ari. Auerbach is a great reporter. Chris Vannani great reporter too. Feldman and Staples are also National Reporters. Olson, Matt Fortuna, Matt Brown. There's a ton of great contributors.
That said, it doesn't take away from the fact that I think Stew actively knows the Michigan fan base brings his articles attention.
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:35 PM ^
I disagree about Auerbach. Hyper sensitive and overly political. She does seem to get a lot of scoops so she deserves praise for that. But I generally find her unlikeable. Staples talks a lot about food.
Mandel is meh. Feldman is solid.
Baumgardner is the only one whose work would make me consider subscribing.
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:09 PM ^
Wasserman's really the worst, even beyond his OSU-homerism, in that recruiting rankings are the be-all, end-all of his analysis. While his pieces provide a sense of the relative talent available to various teams, his writing is essentially useless for understanding how teams play to their strengths/exploit their opponent's weaknesses, develop talent, or match up with each other. (EG, he's always high on Franklin's teams, which usually are very star talented but rarely cohesive and usually get worse as the year goes on.)
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:31 PM ^
The recruiting-focused writers always drive me crazy with their analysis. Bud Foster does a similar take but acknowledges that recruiting doesn't mean everything. But far too often they boil it down to "you have to have elite talent to win a title" and use as reference Alabama as proof, ignoring the fact they innovate a ton as well.
August 24th, 2022 at 10:15 AM ^
Except you overlook the fact that the teams with the most and best talent virtually always win.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:27 PM ^
Given Sparty’s schedule and their 6-3 record I assume he would say OSU and MSU are losses.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:28 PM ^
I wouldn't say this often, but 9-3 would be a disappointment this year. This is one of the most loaded offenses I've ever seen at Michigan since I started following the team in the early 00's. And the defense, despite losing a number of quality starters, returns so much freaking talent and I really like the imported Ravens defense, and how it allows us to bend around our best players while still matching up well against a variety of offenses and especially Ohio State.
But most of all, the schedule is the friendliest I can remember in a long time. Sparty, Penn State, and Nebraska at home where we usually win against all teams not named Ohio State. Only tough road games are Iowa (whose offense is a shambles) and Ohio State.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:31 PM ^
3 losses seems like a bit much, but it's not inconceivable. That assumes losing at Iowa (at night, when they have a good team) and losing at Ohio State, and then splitting the home games between MSU and PSU.
That's not implausible at all.
But I'm hopeful that Michigan will do better than that. I certainly think we can. That's a low-end projection.
Which, fine. I don't care. Michigan will prove him wrong or they won't. But it *will* be proven one way or another.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:41 PM ^
Yea, prognostications mainly make you shrug or get angry, especially when they're not detailed and just a general overview. I'll also say, I more than "hope" for a better season. i somewhat EXPECT us to go 2-1 or better against Iowa/Sparty/Penn St, and expect us to be competitive with Ohio again this November. I also expect us to sweep the rest of the schedule.
I'll be disappointed with 9 wins, while I acknowledge it's not unreasonable and also what I want expect or hope doesn't matter one iota.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:32 PM ^
He hates Michigan and he hates Harbaugh. He grew up in Ohio a Buckeye fan.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:37 PM ^
Mandel, and much of the nation, seems to think M's season was a fluke. I think he sees Haskins and Hutch are gone and thinks they were the reason we were ahead of the pack last year. Most of us think the O will improve and the D will be decent too. 9 wins make sense if you think M is just part of the pack. I don't, so I'd be disappointed.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:37 PM ^
So you're telling me every BIG TEN team has 3 conference losses except OSU? Never in a million years will that happen.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:40 PM ^
The comments from Michigan fans responding to his piece are hilarious. Multiple people said they are going to unsubscribe.
Mandel typically is pretty skeptical of Michigan and had to eat crow last season, so it will be even sweeter when he has to do it a second year in a row.
August 23rd, 2022 at 9:26 PM ^
The comments from Mgoblog readers are hilarious.
If a writer has Michigan roots or is a fan, all the people with their bias showing fawn all over them like they are the greatest journalist ever.
If writer doesn't like Michigan, then the people here label them as a bum.
This piece is not journalism. It's entertainment from someone who is paid to get clicks.
August 23rd, 2022 at 4:41 PM ^
Stewart is mediocre and grumpy with big baby boomer vibes. He's always hated Michigan and Harbaugh. Would be more worried if he picked us to go 12-0 because he is wrong so often. I also think he is underrating Nebraska this season but we'll see.
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:03 PM ^
Picking U-M, MSU and PSU all to have the same record is kind of a cop-out. I don't see all three getting three conference losses. Not impossible but seems highly unlikely.
I think every bowl projection I have seen has us in the Rose, which probably means a floor of 10-2 (although I guess you could get there at 9-3 if the Wolverines finish as the second-highest rated B1G team). Obviously the goal is to repeat as B1G champs, but 10-11 wins and a return to Pasadena would also mean we've had a damn good season.