Schedule and scenarios
Slow day on the board so....
Most of the games are lock wins or losses IMHO.
No way we are going to beat OSU, Wisc on the road, white-out @ PSU or Washington.
The first list below is if we don't improve at all from last year(s).
The second list has us winning the toss ups.
Our floor is 5-7 and the ceiling is 8-4.
The ceiling is almost exactly the same result of the 2019 season - only that year we beat ND.
We'll probably be at the citrus bowl again against a Ole Miss or Auburn.
Does 8-4 to the citrus bowl save Jimmy?
Western W 1-0
#21 Washington L 1-1
N Illinois W 2-1
Rutgers W 3-1
@#15 Wisconsin L 3-2
@Nebraska L 3-3
#27 Northwestern L 3-4
@Michigan State W 4-4
#17 Indiana L 4-5
@#20 Penn State L 4-6
@Maryland W 5-6
#4 Ohio State L 5-7
Western W 1-0
#21 Washington L 1-1
N Illinois W 2-1
Rutgers W 3-1
@#15 Wisconsin L 3-2
@Nebraska W 4-2
#27 Northwestern W 5-2
@Michigan State W 6-2
#17 Indiana W 7-2
@#20 Penn State L 7-3
@Maryland W 8-3
#4 Ohio State L 8-4
August 13th, 2021 at 9:25 AM ^
insufferable "Jimmy" posts are here to stay
August 13th, 2021 at 8:37 PM ^
Why is Washington an automatic loss? Hey look I’m a pretty pessimistic guy but can we wait until kickoff before shitting all over the 2021 team?
August 13th, 2021 at 9:27 AM ^
I don't actually think Penn State is a white-out this year. I'm fairly certain another team has drawn the short end of the stick for once.
As far as does 8-4 save Harbaugh? I mean, that would probably have to depend on who the losses are to in the 8-4 scenario. In the one you laid out above? Absolutely. No way Warde fires Harbaugh for going 8-4. Now if Harbaugh gets embarrassed by MSU again and we lose to their brand new coach two years in a row but still manage an 8-4 record? Idk, I think that maybe Warde starts to consider alternatives at that point. But even then, I'd be surprised if he actually fired Harbaugh in that scenario.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:30 AM ^
Auburn is the white out game. Michigan is their “student white out” game, which may end up being basically the same thing
August 13th, 2021 at 9:36 AM ^
Ah I see. Even when we win, we still lose lol. Stupid Penn State and their stupid white-outs.
Not going to lie though, as an overall fan of college football in general, I wouldn't mind going to a white-out game against some other team not named Michigan and joining in with the home crowd once...just for the fun experience that atmosphere has to be.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:38 AM ^
I saw it somewhere on the board and I have clue on how to verify it, but I remember someone commenting that Michigan has the option to reject a night game @PSU this year. Again, no idea how to verify that but a day game definitely plays in our favor @PSU, or anywhere.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:10 AM ^
I believe the rule is that in the last three weeks of November, both teams have to agree to a night game. Since the PSU game is the second Saturday in November, this would fall inside of that window and therefore Michigan would have to agree to playing at night. I think it's pretty obvious that they would reject such a proposal.
I'd look for that game to be either at 3:30 or 4:30, which is basically a night game from the second quarter and on.
August 13th, 2021 at 11:51 AM ^
If Warde agrees to a night game when he can veto it that would be some significant AD malpractice.
August 13th, 2021 at 1:08 PM ^
To my knowledge, Michigan has not played a night game in that mid/late-November window since these requirements were put in place, so I see no reason why it would happen this season. There is no reason to get up in arms over something that hasn't happened before and won't happen now.
August 13th, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^
Do we know when that rule was actually implemented? That Iowa game in 2016 kicked off at 8pm on November 12.
I believe it was likely 2017 as that's when Fox got more involved in the Big Ten tv deal.
August 13th, 2021 at 2:24 PM ^
Beat me to it. I fucking hate that 2016 Iowa game to this day. Sorry to be that guy, but I'm convinced if it is a Kinnick day game, we win by 10-14 points while otherwise dominating both sides of the ball. In other words, a Lloyd special.
August 13th, 2021 at 4:04 PM ^
I believe you are correct, it was 2017 when FOX started getting a large share of Big Ten games and night games became more prevalent for all schools.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:39 AM ^
Also @ Penn State won't be a night game, so the "semi white out" wont have the same effects"
August 13th, 2021 at 9:58 AM ^
Is there some law that says you can only have one xcolor-out game per year? I don't understand why they couldn't have two.
August 13th, 2021 at 11:23 AM ^
I think it has to do more with the cold and potential weather of a night game in November, not so much with the white out part.
August 13th, 2021 at 2:41 PM ^
There is only one annual White-out (TM) game.
But there will be other games where most of the fans were white.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:00 AM ^
Harbaugh is Michigan's Kirk Ferentz. He's here forever, and Iowa's program is pretty much Michigan's ceiling. A mixture of 8-5/9-4 seasons, with the occasional double-digit win season.
August 13th, 2021 at 3:58 PM ^
Even with 8-4 or 7-5, I think the big decision will be who might be available. I was somewhat surprised you guys didn't go with Matt Campbell, but upon closer look, he wasn't the shining star the media has made him out to be.
Also, don't know how exactly you identify up and coming coaches. I do remember that I was happy when we hired Tressel as he had won 4 championships at the lower level. I think there is a difference between building a winning program and building a championship program.
August 13th, 2021 at 4:57 PM ^
Who do you want to replace Day after he takes an NFL job this year?
August 13th, 2021 at 3:58 PM ^
Even with 8-4 or 7-5, I think the big decision will be who might be available. I was somewhat surprised you guys didn't go with Matt Campbell, but upon closer look, he wasn't the shining star the media has made him out to be.
Also, don't know how exactly you identify up and coming coaches. I do remember that I was happy when we hired Tressel as he had won 4 championships at the lower level. I think there is a difference between building a winning program and building a championship program.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:28 AM ^
I don’t think Washington is a guaranteed loss. That’s a home night game and Washington is also a team with a lot of questions. Excluding last year, Michigan generally does very well in home games under Harbaugh
August 13th, 2021 at 9:42 AM ^
I wouldn't consider PSU a guaranteed loss either. It won't (shouldn't) be a night game taking away a major advantage for PSU. Win those two games and don't drop another one (Indiana) and we're looking at 10-2.
I'm actually a bit concerned about Western. I don't think we'll lose, but I can see some hiccups on defense that might make it close. And it seems like they have an offense that could take advantage of some stupid mistakes.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:02 AM ^
I mean...Penn State has won 3 out of the last 4, and it's on the road. It's not a GUARANTEED loss, but could probably pencil that one in as an L.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:42 AM ^
But we've won 4 out of the last 7. ?
August 13th, 2021 at 12:12 PM ^
Yes. It may be a high ceiling, but I think M's is 10-2. I can see almost anything happening, though, including a very hard crash as everyone realizes it just ain't gonna work and that "Jimmy" is gone. I'm still wishing him and everyone well, but think there's a real possibility that the whole institution has developed PTSD with Jim. Some kind of ritual slaughter and sacrificial burning (maybe of the Schembechler statue) may have to precede a full house-cleaning before the good people of Michigan can have decent teams again.
The shorter mglobules: There's no reason we need to just suck. If it's clear that we've become an organization riddled with neurosis let's make the decision early and have our pick of available new coaches.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:33 AM ^
Why is there no way we're going to beat Washington? They're not exactly a juggernaut. We have them at home and there is very little data on Jimmy Lake as a head coach going into his second season.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:39 AM ^
Ok, I get the gloom and doom and all but calling the home, night Washington game unwinnable along with a game against a PSU team that went 4-5 last year with losses to Nebraska and Maryland is a joke.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:44 AM ^
I'm with you. In 2018 we blew Penn State out and in 2019 we lost a squeaker at Penn State. Now they're some insurmountable juggernaut?
August 13th, 2021 at 10:06 AM ^
a PSU team that went 4-5 last year with losses to Nebraska and Maryland is a joke.
And Michigan was a 2-4 team that lost to that PSU team (who was 0-5 at the time) and had to go to 3OT to get one of their 2 wins on the season vs. Rutgers. Yeah, Penn State wasn't great, but Michigan was really, really bad.
Both programs will bounce back, but Michigan has a much deeper hole to dig out of.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:45 AM ^
Frankly I hate Clifford as a QB and I think that puts a pretty hard ceiling on PSU. I really wish Cade hadn't busted up his shoulder in the first quarter of that game last year.
August 13th, 2021 at 1:26 PM ^
Yes, it's easy to forget that we didn't have a functional quarterback for that loss. Cade couldn't throw it further than 5 yards and Milton was injured as well.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:45 AM ^
I'm in agreement here, but there's really no data on us this season either. Basically all new positional coaches and new defensive scheme, (hopefully) a new offensive direction, and it's really a tossup who our QB is. I'm glad it seems like everyone is a bit down on us, and expectations are really low. It seems like every year expectations are super high and we blow it.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:49 AM ^
Is it really a toss-up? I haven't heard anything suggesting anyone other than Cade, at least for the opener.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:54 AM ^
I thought Harbaugh and Weiss essentially named Cade the starter. I would be really surprised if anyone else took the job.
August 13th, 2021 at 4:52 PM ^
Way back on April 15 (one month before tax day this year), Weiss said, “Cade is a guy who I think for everything people are going to say to criticize him, he’s a guy that’s going to end up playing 10 years in the NFL because you can say he’s not enough of this, not enough of that. But at the end of the day, he’s really smart, makes great decisions and processes things very fast, and his accuracy and arm strength are more than enough to win with,” Weiss said on the podcast. “He’s a guy that’s been awesome to work with. He’s extremely valuable to our team. He’s our starter. Love the fact we have him.”
We're in the middle of fall camp and things might have changed in 5 months, but I can't imagine a much stronger endorsement.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:49 AM ^
I also think we have a reasonable chance in this home game against Washington. Moreover to call Penn State a lock loss seems silly.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:41 AM ^
If in second scenario Washington is a W, I'd be thrilled with those results.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:41 AM ^
Until we can learn to win a big road game outside of Michigan, I see the Wisconsin and PSU games as losses. By time OSU rolls around, I'll believe we have a puncher's chance if we bring the better (and healthier) QB into that game for the first time since 2011. So my expectation is 9-3.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:49 AM ^
"No way are we going to beat Washington"...
You are either terribly negative or a troll. Head over to the RCMB where your brilliance will be recognized and rewarded.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:17 AM ^
Overly harsh but that is today's MgoBlog.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
Slow day on the board? It's 9am eastern.
August 13th, 2021 at 9:53 AM ^
This sounds like a real good time.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:02 AM ^
3-9 is the floor. That's if everything goes wrong. Maryland would have been a pick em game last year had we played. And MSU is an auto win? They just beat us and did more to improve their team in the off season than we did.
But I think we beat both, and Nebraska and probably Northwestern for 6-6 or 7-5.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:13 AM ^
To be fair, Harbaugh is undefeated in East Lansing (2-0). Unfortunately, he's 1-3 against them in Ann Arbor.
August 13th, 2021 at 11:38 PM ^
To be fair, Michigan had one of the handful of youngest teams in FBS football, as well as bottom 3 returning production last year, and you’d have to take into account not having full spring or fall practice. I’m not so sure that MSU replacing a bunch of 2-3 stars with a new group of 2-3 stars that didn’t see the field is an upgrade either, although that is yet to be seen.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:16 AM ^
Im as pessimistic as anyone and was hoping Harbaugh was fired last year, but to say Washington is an automatic loss is asinine.
I’ll give you @Wiscy and @PSU, but to say there is no way Michigan can beat UW is laughable.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
This is a horse-shit post. 5-7 to 8-4 ?
Come on man. We finally have a QB. The best RB room in the country. Solid O-lline and good targets who block.
Talent on D with a Baltimore Ravens style.
This is the time to finally be optimistic.
10 wins plus. And if Cade stays healthy a win against ohio exposing day.
GO BLUE
August 13th, 2021 at 12:21 PM ^
I like your enthusiasm. If we can get solid QB play I can see 8-1 going into last three games and being ranked in the 15-25 range.
Although, I can also see another collapse of leadership and a bout of injuries causing a 5-7 season as well. I think the WMU and Washington games are crucial for momentum for the rest of the season.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
I do find it interesting that even in our worst case, floor season you have us beating MSU on the road and have it as a lock!
August 13th, 2021 at 11:00 AM ^
Beat Western