Onwenu said UM hasn’t even shown half its offense

Submitted by BTB grad on September 17th, 2018 at 3:33 PM

https://twitter.com/chengelis/status/1041741774216146950

Comments

mgojohnny

September 17th, 2018 at 3:41 PM ^

I would assume other teams also “hide” the playbook. We just happen to hide it for the entire season until OSU.

The passing game is competent, though a bit conservative. I think McElwain /Pep deserves some credit

Whoever calls the rungame needs a noogie .

gpsimms not to…

September 17th, 2018 at 4:16 PM ^

This is just super wrong. 

Higdon's long 67, Evans 27 (twice), Higdon had another long run of 43.

We had 35 carries for 308 yards. If you remove those 4 long runs, then we have

(308-27-27-67-43)/31 = 5.5

Subtracting one outlier type play may often make sense, but to subtract 4 out of 35 carries as "not representative" is excessive. On top of that, we *still* averaged 5.5 ypc when you remove the 4. 

I'd say obvious troll is obvious, but then I just spent 5 minutes looking up the stats, which is to say I was effectively trolled. So good job?

mgojohnny

September 17th, 2018 at 4:35 PM ^

 

hig_0.jpg
evan.jpg

 

Last year, we averaged 2-3 yards per carry against our main rivals.  (eyeballing the metric between hig/evans).

Higdon was right at 3 yards/carry against ND in 2018.  In summary, we should expect more of the same (3 yards/carry) against anyone relevant.  

Sweet baby Jesus, this is going to hurt, but look at this chart..MODS: please delete if its to painful.

dob.jpg

 

mgobaran

September 17th, 2018 at 5:16 PM ^

Wow you suck at math. Higdon+Evans totals:

MSU 92 yards on 24 carries 3.83 ypc
PSU 62 yards on 19 carries 3.26 ypc
Wisc 45 yards on 18 carries 2.50 ypc
OSU 122 yards on 22 carries 5.55 ypc

Total 321 yds on 83 carries for 3.87 ypc

That is definitively not between 2 or 3 yards per carry. Only one single game meets that bullshit range. 

Are You Not En…

September 17th, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^

Median YPC would be a horrendous metric. A single running play is by and large is a boom or bust. If one person screws up an assignment the play is a bust and any yards gained are from whatever can be gotten after contact or after making the first man miss. But if youre forced to make someone miss prior to hitting a hole then the rest of the defense has time to get into position to close it down. Since the majority of runs are misses and result in 3 yards, why would someone take the median?

m1jjb00

September 17th, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^

It's a reasonable take that the average might not tell the right story.  BUT, you can't then compare the median to a national / Big Ten/ Top 25 average---just like how it's illegitimate to say things like take out the top 4 runs, and team X is below average, unless the average you're talking about is the average game after taking out the top 4 runs.  And even then such an exercise is questionable because it's likely the particular yardstick was chosen after looking at the data.

 

mgojohnny

September 17th, 2018 at 5:09 PM ^

You're the kind of fan that hoped 400 yards against Minnesota (2017) would indicate promising results against PSU/OSU/MSU/WISC. 

In fact, the run success we had against Indiana, Rutgers, and Minnesota in 2017 did NOT tranlsate into success against PSU/OSU/MSU/WISC/SouthCarolina.

It's 2018, and you are again hoping the 300 yards against WMU is a predictive performance indicator against the better teams.  You should be concerned that we ran for 1.8 against ND.

reshp1

September 17th, 2018 at 3:57 PM ^

It's not about hiding it as much as choosing which plays make sense against a given opponent and only repping those in the limited practice time you have for the week. Only showing 45% of the playbook sounds pretty much right considering Michigan probably didn't show much of anything new vs the two recent tomato can teams, so it's pretty much only the plays they prepped for ND.

Mongo

September 17th, 2018 at 3:42 PM ^

There is a season long plan and JH is clearly calling the shots.  Gentry and DPJ came out of wraps just before Nebraska.  Now Frost needs to game plan for the deep ball to either/both Nico and DPJ as well as Gentry in the seam.  Expect to see more things added for Nebraska, maybe more under stuff with Perry and Martin (and Evans if he is healthy).

If Higdon is still out, expect to see Wilson start and we amp up the pass game.  Wilson is damn good at picking up the blitz.  I am sure Harbaugh would like to drop like 70+ on Frost.