Number of Offers for Power 5 Schools in 2019 Recruiting Class
Max Olson posted this about a week ago, so maybe this information is slightly out of date. But he gathered up the number of offers for every Power 5 program in the country, according to 247 Sports (LINK). I found the data to be pretty interesting. A few notes:
- Tennessee is #1 with 440 offers. I think Butch Jones started the practice (or really ramped it up) of throwing out offers left and right from Knoxville, but that shows how crazy it is.
- Nebraska is the #1 Big Ten school with 413 offers extended.
- Michigan is #5 in the Big Ten (behind Nebraska, Indiana, Rutgers, and Minnesota), according to his data, but I have Michigan with 310 offers in the 2019 class. That would put the Wolverines at #3 in the conference.
- Northwestern is last in the Big Ten with 103 offers.
- Stanford has only offered 74 players in the 2019 recruiting cycle.
December 27th, 2018 at 8:24 AM ^
Michigan is within 20 of Alabama and Georgia. The recruiting world is a little complex, and often you can't really explore a recruitment until you give an offer. Not all offers would be committable, so knowing nothing else, I'm okay with where Michigan is on that list.
December 27th, 2018 at 8:50 AM ^
Just curious if anyone has an answer to this: What is a coaches word track when they offer a non-committable scholarship? Like, what do they say, "Hey Billy Bob we'd love for you to come visit good ole Knoxville - so it is with great honor we are prepared to offer you a scholarship that is in fact not actually valid. What do you say Billy Bob, are you ready to come meet some Volunteer Co-Ed's?"
December 27th, 2018 at 9:00 AM ^
I imagine it's something along the lines of, "Hey Billy Bob. We think you'd be a great fit in our program. However, we have several other guys ahead of you that we are recruiting as well. If they choose to go elsewhere, we have a spot waiting for you." I'm guessing that's how most honest coaches sail their ships, but I could be wrong.
December 27th, 2018 at 9:53 AM ^
I can't really speak intelligently with respect to the football recruiting world (Magnus and others that are much more informed than I are obviously better sources), but I can attempt to shed some light having been through the recruiting process with my daughter within the basketball sphere.
We had a few coaches that were totally transparent and expressly stated "We'd love to have you, but we have a few offers out at your position. Those prospects have been given X amount of time to commit, and if not, you are next in line for an offer."
Other coaches just flat out offered verbally without any caveats, and most of those were committable, but a few were not based on the information we had, but it was never expressly stated to us.
In the end, she ended up committing to one of the schools that were totally transparent...........when the other prospects decided to go elsewhere, she did receive her offer consistent with the timeline set forth by the head coach. As a family, the fact that the head coach was completely honest and followed through with his word, meant a lot to us in terms of our trust level with the program/school/coach.
I'd say a general rule in the recruiting world would be this........if a school is willing to flip the bill for an official visit, there's a pretty good chance that the 'offer' is indeed committable.
December 27th, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^
This is pretty accurate.
I think the line is a lot more blurred than some people realize. A lot of schools don't tell kids up front that their offer is not committable. An offer is usually just the first step, so if Coach X offers you in January and you don't want to visit until June, the coaching staff may have found someone in March who's showing more interest. Or Coach Y will offer you and then not initiate much contact for a while, indicating you have their interest but aren't necessarily a top priority.
In truth, all offers are dependent on a variety of factors, including class makeup. With Cade McNamara committed to Michigan, for example, the coaching staff wasn't going to take any other QBs unless they were superstars. With Michigan's defensive line recruiting, they weren't going to take commitments from any lower-rated guys late in the process unless their name was George Karlaftis or Zach Harrison.
December 27th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
I second this strongly for the basketball world as well. Based on my knowledge and intel on the boys side in my daily dialogue with both college coaches and prospects, in addition to my first-hand knowledge with my daughter.............these offers don't last forever. Unless of course, said prospect is an elite talent that is a 'take' under any circumstances.
A decent portion of coaches will indeed tell a prospect that the offer is committable for X amount of time, while others make no mention of a hypothetical time duration. Some coaches will make a follow-up call with a prospect and essentially give an ultimatum before 'moving on'. Others will slow-play and not close the door in the event that they strike out with other prospects.
December 27th, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^
Also, from I’ve been told by someone who went through the process, that many of these offers that are conditional require the recruit to hold off committing until they are allowed to do so by the school. And sometimes the recruit commits before this time, which is a big pain in the ass. I think the Chase Lassiter recruitment fits in this category
December 27th, 2018 at 9:01 AM ^
Vol co-eds would get me to Rocky Top for a visit ten times out of ten and twice on Sunday, committable scholarship be damned.
December 27th, 2018 at 9:59 AM ^
Non-commitable scholarship offer is so silly. It’s just something for the kid to tweet. Those numbers have no meaning. If I give you a cookie but you can’t eat it and ultimately I’ll probably give the cookie to someone else, did I really give you a cookie?
December 27th, 2018 at 10:14 AM ^
IMO, the point is when UofM thinks you deserve a cookie, other schools start baking.
You may not end up with UofM cookies, but you won't be starving .....unlike those Ohio kids the last few years.
December 27th, 2018 at 10:33 AM ^
I prefer to think of non-commitable offers as conditional offers. It makes more sense that way.
Kids want offers and you can attach a lot of possible conditions. Even the official written offers still have some conditions attached and they are commitable.
December 27th, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^
I think its more of a conversation with the coach. We help out you, your program and your kids in exchange for an edge in future recruitments.
December 27th, 2018 at 9:03 AM ^
Stanford must have an awesome yield rate.
December 27th, 2018 at 9:28 AM ^
Stanford doesn’t bother with recruits not interested in “playing school”.
December 27th, 2018 at 10:05 AM ^
I just looked at Shaw's record at Stanford and it was surprisingly mediocre for the level of recruits that he pulls:
2014Stanford8–5 (overall) 5–4 (Pac 10)
2015Stanford12–2 8–1 (very good)
Clearly "pretty good football team" plus "Stanford education" is appealing to a lot of good players. People would go crazy if Harbaugh's teams produced those records, and the B1G East is a much harder division than whatever the Pac 10 calls Stanford's division.
December 27th, 2018 at 10:30 AM ^
The Pac-12's divisions are geographic, so Stanford is in the North.
(Although Utah and Colorado being in the South is sort of weird.)
December 27th, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^
That makes sense. Thanks. I had already stopped following West Coast football when the Pac 10 added Utah and Colorado (which were indeed weird additions).
I guess Pac 12 North is probably the better of the two divisions now that USC sucks.
December 27th, 2018 at 11:01 AM ^
Stanford plays in the Pac-12 North. Shaw began in 2011.
2011: 11-2
2012: 12-2 Rose Bowl W
2013: 11-3
Overall:
2 Rose Bowl wins (2012, 2015)
3 Pac-12 championships
5 Pac-12 North Division titles
It’s pretty simple. If I’m a Stanford fan, I’m excited as hell. I’d even trade for Shaw’s complete resume from 2011-2018 with Hoke and Harbaugh’s combined run at Michigan. Going forward however, I’ll take Harbaugh/Michigan’s projection.
December 27th, 2018 at 11:10 AM ^
Good points. I should have mentioned that those were only the last five seasons - "what have you done for me lately", and all that.
It's interesting that Shaw's most consistently high level of success came immediately after taking over for Harbaugh. He clearly didn't run the program into the ground, but I doubt he could have built Stanford up like Harbaugh did.
December 27th, 2018 at 11:18 AM ^
Without a doubt, Shaw is running the program that Harbaugh built. Had Harbaugh stayed in Palo Alto, I do think Stanford would’ve seen even greater success than what Shaw has achieved...maybe even a national championship.
Most likely, and most importantly, Harbaugh would have been able to land the QBs and OLine, at the top of his list.
December 27th, 2018 at 11:30 AM ^
It’s true. I watched Harbaugh build Stanford as a Cal season ticket holder. It was absolutely shocking what he was able to do.
He’s in a weird spot at Michigan. The academics are too heavy for “playing school” types, but not so elite that it’s an “oh wow” no brainer for any academically inclined kid (like Stanford). I think that, more than anything, has contributed to some of our big recruiting misses. We can’t get really academically marginal kids like a southern school, and Stanford can cherry pick the accademic types with greater status and better year round weather. That leaves a niche that we share with ND.
December 27th, 2018 at 11:30 AM ^
You cut off his first three years. His record is great overall. You’re like an MSU grad cherry picking a time span.
December 27th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
I’m not like an MSU grad - I’ve been more than 50 miles from my place of birth and I don’t wear a name tag to work.
However, as I said above, I just grabbed the five most recent seasons. The inference being that recent success dictates recruiting success, not what happened when the recruits were 11.
December 27th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^
False! I have never seen a pizza delivery guy with a name tag.
December 27th, 2018 at 1:00 PM ^
I think the managers probably wear the name tags, so I guess it doesn’t apply to MSU. What about Best Buy? Those guys wear name tags I think.
December 27th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
the first year or two was built by Harbaugh - it is starting to slide a little now that it is only Shaw - we'll see how it goes from here
December 27th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
Right - it’s obviously extremely high for regular students and apparently very high for student athletes.
December 27th, 2018 at 9:28 AM ^
I know it is fun and humorous to be snarky about this but reality is quite a bit different. The "currently not committable" offer is "We really like the potential we seen on your tape. If you continue to develop and become more consistent in your play this will be a committable offer. We are going to offer you to let you know that we are very interested...and if you do indeed work hard and make the improvements we anticipate we will be glad to have you join this class."
My college recruiting experience is very limited. But even with my limitations one thing is/was very clear...these recruits are very aware and very knowledgeable and savvy about what is in play here.
December 27th, 2018 at 9:34 AM ^
Can someone show an actual example of a committable offer and an non-committable offer? I've seen some Michigan offers from back in the day. These things must be out on the internet somewhere.
Is there a difference? Or are they all worded the same, and when the recruit calls the coach he's given the real story?
December 27th, 2018 at 9:45 AM ^
I'd assume, like most things, a lot of this goes on via back channels. The "offers" can't be too different since some kids manage to "verbally commit" when they don't have a committable offer.
December 27th, 2018 at 9:54 AM ^
I would suspect there are a lot of "ifs" thrown into the offer. If you continue to progress, if you keep your grades up, If you add some "good" weight. That gives the program a lot of outs if needed.
December 27th, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^
“You’re a Baller” is an example of a committable offer.
December 27th, 2018 at 11:02 AM ^
A non-committable offer can't be seen. There's no letter or anything, in most cases. It's just a statement offered from a coach to a player, usually on the phone or in person.
December 27th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
Magnus,
what is your take away impression after this post? The Stanford total is crazy compared to the others. But yet they still field a very competitive team.
December 27th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
I'm not Magnus, but it's quite clear that Stanford doesn't even bother with kids that can't make it academically.
I can't vouch for what minimum academic requirements Stanford requires, but I did attend a D2 college with highly rigorous academics and admissions. When I attended (which was 8 years ago) they did not bother recruiting anyone that did not have at least a 3.4 GPA AND a 24 ACT or 1160 SAT.
Further, when the football coaching staff punched in those magical numbers into the 'Crootin resources they used it eliminated anywhere from 65-75% of the players in the database in a given year. Then you could take someone like DPJ whom is brilliant and you can eliminate him because he wasn't D2 material (and vice versa for Stanford) and you're very left with a very small lake to go fishing in, as opposed to the ocean a place like Tennessee can fish in.
December 27th, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^
Stanford is still on that old-school model of only offering kids who are very interested in Stanford and who have the academics to actually get into the school. It's still a privilege to get a Stanford offer, so they don't have to throw them out willy-nilly. They have a high hit rate because they play good football, and the kids who go there are interested in both academics and playing football at a high level...along with the fact that they get to live in Palo Alto for four years.
You'll also notice that Stanford takes pretty small recruiting classes. It's not unusual for them to have 15-22 recruits or so, whereas a lot of programs are taking 25-35 per class.
December 27th, 2018 at 9:48 AM ^
I understand the concept of the "committable" offer. But there is probably a different term of art used in recruiting. What is an "offer" if schools aren't offering a scholarship?
December 27th, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^
It's pretty simple. Throw out a ton of offers to four and five star guys and you might learn there are some players interested in your program you didn't know about.
December 27th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^
Yeah, I'd like to know historical numbers. I assume offers are commensurate with class size and level of player sought to an extent; if you are going after a bunch of high-ranked guys or have bit classes, that makes sense you'd have a bunch of offers out.