Michigan at #13 in CFP, move up 2 spots
Title says it all. Top 7 didn’t change, same order. Oklahoma only moved up 1 spot which was cool to see.
Only Florida at 11 and Wisconsin at 12 are above UM with 2 losses.
I like hypotheticals and this is a message board, so what the heck. Anybody think UM has any shot at the top 4 even if they win out? Seems like an OSU blowout this weekend, and UM a convincing win over them would bump them pretty high. Not saying high enough, but worth the debate. Thoughts?
November 19th, 2019 at 9:17 PM ^
Michigan would need a ton of chaos (both Arizona schools scoring upsets this weekend) and to absolutely murder osu for any chance at the top 4 and even that would be highly unlikely. It’s going to be tough to jump both Minnesota and Wisconsin since whichever wins that game will also get a solid boost and is already above us
November 19th, 2019 at 10:02 PM ^
Your off here a bit. Yes, one of the Oregon/Utah need to lose in next 2 weeks. If one does, just need that 2 loss team to beat the 1 loss team.
Minnesota and Wisconsin are irreverent. The one wins and goes to BTCG, but loses to OSU. They would eliminated.
Need pac 12 to lose 1 (before champ game), Oklahoma to lose 1, LSU to beat Georgia, OSU to look great in every game but the one they lose to us, and we win convincingly in both games. Not saying that gets it done. But we got a shot!
November 19th, 2019 at 11:59 PM ^
I’m not so sure a 1 loss Minnesota with a loss in the big ten championship game gets dropped below Michigan. The committee doesn’t want to punish teams for playing the extra game. It’s all random, sure Michigan could get in over a 2 loss pac 12 champ but it seems highly unlikely to me, most definitely wouldn’t get in over a 1 loss Baylor like everyone seems to be saying. We didn’t just lose to Wisconsin, we got rocked. That’s why we are behind them and Florida despite having a better resume
November 19th, 2019 at 9:36 PM ^
Same as every other year
SEC with top undefeated team, top 1 loss team, top 2 loss team, top 3 loss team.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:53 PM ^
I don't see us getting into the top 4 unless there is complete Mayhem in the final 3 weeks.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:54 PM ^
My only thought is I want to beat IU and then OSU. Period. The rest of it doesn't matter. This is all about pride.
Go Blue !!!
November 19th, 2019 at 9:57 PM ^
2 loss non division champ isn't getting in unless there's chaos on the level of literally every team ahead of us losing one more game. Probably would need Clemson to lose to scar and ACC title game to knock them out, need a two loss big 12 and two loss pac 12 champ. Somehow this is still more probable than Ruggers beating Penn state
November 19th, 2019 at 9:59 PM ^
Since you asked let’s think of a scenario where it could happen:
B1G: OSU pounds Penn St we beat OSU convincingly. 3-loss west division champ beats OSU in CCG. That leaves us probably the top choice out of the B1G
SEC: LSU rolls through Georgia, Auburn beats Bama, Florida loses to FSU. At this point we are competing with two loss Georgia. LOCK: LSU
ACC: Clemson and there isn’t a scenario we pass them. LOCK: Clemson
Big 12: Baylor loses to Texas but beats Oklahoma in Big 12 championship. We are competing with 2-loss Oklahoma and 2-loss Baylor
Pac-12: Basically need one of Oregon or Utah to lose before the CCG and the team with 2 losses beats the 1 loss team. Competing with 2-loss Utah and Oregon.
That would leave LSU and Clemson 1-2 and Michigan, OSU, Penn St, Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Baylor, Utah, and Oregon all two loss teams competing for 2 spots.
November 19th, 2019 at 10:13 PM ^
Clemson could absolutely get passed by Michigan if they lose to scar and the ACC title game back to back
Also a 3 loss west champion is only possible if Minnesota loses to northwestern this week and Wisconsin next week while Wisconsin loses to purdue this week and beats Minnesota next week. Could be a weird dynamic since Wisconsin would basically we erasing their OSU loss if they won the rematch
November 19th, 2019 at 10:18 PM ^
Whatever. College football nationally basically sucks without true playoffs.
Edit: We need to kill conference divisions and title games. We need to expand conference games to 10 games and thus reduce the cupcakes. We need to expand the playoffs to a 16 team bracket. Conference title games and bowl games are just totally antiquated.
November 20th, 2019 at 12:44 AM ^
Count me in with your plan
November 19th, 2019 at 10:39 PM ^
I don't care about the postseason. All I want is to beat OSU. Do that, and they can end up in any bowl, as far as I'm concerned. I expect Michigan to lose to OSU, and I'll be ok if they do, but I want a win against OSU more than anything else. And I want them to beat OSU again next year, and the year after. Continue to beat OSU, and everything else will fall into place. Fail to beat OSU, and all other successes don't matter.
For instance, if Michigan had a perfect record, if they beat Indiana, and then lost to OSU, but won the Big 10 and went to the National Championship, I'd be somewhat empty.
November 20th, 2019 at 12:46 AM ^
Wow not me I'd be very very happy. Winning a NC tops all things. It means ending the season the best team in cfb. Take that all day long every single day
November 19th, 2019 at 10:42 PM ^
A two loss team made it to the national championship in the BCS system, so it's possible for us to make the playoffs. It would just take some serious mayhem in the final few weeks, which probably isn't happening.
November 19th, 2019 at 10:42 PM ^
Beat Indiana!
November 19th, 2019 at 11:19 PM ^
ranking means nothing if we don't beat Indiana and Ohio State, nothing at all
November 20th, 2019 at 7:39 AM ^
Correct.
beat Indiana
beat Ohio
Let fate decide the rest....
November 19th, 2019 at 11:24 PM ^
No, it’s not worth a debate. If we beat OSU 77-0, we maybe move up to 8th.
November 19th, 2019 at 11:28 PM ^
College football needs to extend the playoffs to 8 teams ASAP
November 20th, 2019 at 12:41 AM ^
I'm doing an exercise to see if it would even be possible under the MOST favorable possible scenario for us:
- Alabama must lose @Auburn
- Clemson must lose in the ACC Championship game, and ideally @South Carolina beforehand (honestly, to get us above them it probably has to be both unless the former is a blowout which definitely won't happen given the state of the ACC Coastal)
- Georgia must lose to LSU in blowout fashion.
- PSU must be blown out by OSU.
- Utah loses to Arizona or Colorado and then USC beats Oregon in the championship (preferable)...OR Oregon loses to ASU or Oregon State and then beats Utah in the championship (less preferable).
- Wisconsin beats Minnesota in Minneapolis to knock the Gophers behind us for good and strengthen our SOS. Badgers then lose to OSU by a large margin....OR, the more fun version, Badgers lose to Purdue, Minnesota loses to Northwestern, whoever wins the Axe then defeats OSU, in flukey/close fashion, to place us at first in the Big Ten pecking order.
- Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State or TCU, and/or Baylor in the rematch, but if the latter Baylor needs to lose to Texas or Kansas beforehand.
- Notre Dame (BC and Stanford) and Iowa (Illinois and Nebraska) win out.
- Illinois beats Northwestern and Indiana beats Purdue (minor)
- Florida loses to a crappy FSU team in a rivalry game (minor)
Idk how many of those you'd need, but probably very close to all of them which seems impossible.
November 20th, 2019 at 4:21 AM ^
I believe out most likely case I should OSU, Clemson, LSU, Michigan. If we get it it will Be with that field. So 1 more loss by Utah, Oregon, Oklahoma, bama, and UGA would probably do it. Not likely but not too insane. Wasn’t it around 2007 teams got into the BCS championship with 2 loses ? Or isn’t my memory failing me.
November 20th, 2019 at 5:57 PM ^
Only about half of these would need to happen. I don't think people realize just how far beating this OSU team would go towards moving Michigan way up in the committees minds and in the metrics.
- Bama probably doesn't need to lose to Auburn. They'll still have very few quality wins. They played an abysmal schedule and as long as their offense doesn't look really good, the committee is going to be skeptical of them without Tua.
- UGA probably doesn't need to get blown out, they just need to lose. They'd also have two losses (one a very bad one that's arguably worse than M's Wisconsin performance) and they'd also not be a conference champ plus Michigan would have better wins and a far more impressive performance against their one common opponent: Notre Dame.
- PSU doesn't need to get blown out. Michigan would absolutely pass them as long is OSU beats PSU and Michigan beats OSU.
- Agree with PAC12. Need a 2+ loss champ and that's the biggest stretch.
- Agree with Big12. Need a two loss champ.
- ND and Iowa winning out probably won't matter but would help. Especially Iowa v Illinois since M played both.
- Florida doesn't need to lose again. Michigan will absolutely pass them if they beat OSU.
November 20th, 2019 at 12:42 AM ^
Well if penn state losses and...............oh forget about it, just beat the buckeyes
November 20th, 2019 at 1:12 AM ^
Since its inception, Michigan has been in 22 of the 34 CFP Polls (22 of 27 under Harbaugh). This ties the Wolverines with Mississippi State and Georgia for the 10th most appearances.
Michigan and Penn State have appeared in the Top Ten 13 times. Only six other teams have appeared more — Alabama (34), Ohio State (31), Clemson (27), Oklahoma (22), Notre Dame (18) and Georgia (17).
Michigan has appeared in the Top 4 seven times. Only Alabama (28), Clemson (26), Ohio State (11), Notre Dame (10) and Oklahoma (8) have appeared more.
November 20th, 2019 at 6:06 AM ^
Really annoying to watch the committee setup a clear path for 2 SEC teams to get in should any hiccup occur. If UGA beats LSU, 2 in. If the Pac 12 or Big 12 champ take a 2nd loss, 2 in. Georgia is not that good. I have no clue why they're in the top 4. Was it the close win over ND? Or is it the amazing home loss to South Carolina that did it
November 20th, 2019 at 6:49 AM ^
No, it is much simpler than that; cuz 1 loss SEC.
November 20th, 2019 at 7:35 AM ^
There is no scenario where a 10-2 Michigan wins the East and gets into the B1G Championship Game. Absent of that resume point, I don't see any way we could climb from 13 into the Top 4 in the next two weeks.
November 20th, 2019 at 7:39 AM ^
If we win out we’ll probably be 6 or 7 after championship weekend.
btw, is there any scenario left where it’s even possible to win the East? I don’t think there is. Only possibility is to finish ahead of OSU if they lose to PSU. But if PSU wins then loses to rutgers(I know, obviously.) they still win division with wins over both mich and osu. And of course if osu wins, that locks up the division for them. So, I think even the most fleeting of possibilities is completely gone.
oh well, we can still have a successful season if we can beat osu and wind up in the top 6 at the end of the year going to a NY6 bowl.
November 20th, 2019 at 7:48 AM ^
btw, is there any scenario left where it’s even possible to win the East?
None. A scenario where Michigan, OSU, and Penn State all finish tied at 7-2 means that Penn State has head-to-head wins against both Michigan and OSU, which would give them the East Division. If Penn State winds up at 6-3, that means that OSU is no worse than 8-1 and they win the East Division.
Michigan no longer has any path to Indianapolis.
November 20th, 2019 at 6:00 PM ^
Can't win the division but still could go to the playoff. A LOT of mayhem would have to happen but it's still possible.
November 20th, 2019 at 8:18 AM ^
Well, Wiscy has an identical record but beat UM head-to-head. That makes sense to me. Florida also has more wins and their losses are to highly ranked teams so I'm OK with that as well.
November 20th, 2019 at 10:24 AM ^
That requires the things you point out (OSU crushes PSU, M beats OSU) plus:
- OSU to beat Wisconsin (again), which will have beaten Minn
- Auburn to convincingly beat Bama (after which both could be above M)
- LSU to eviscerate Georgia
- Oklahoma loses to OKST and barely wins the Baylor rematch
- Oregon or Utah loses pre-PAC championship, then beats the other in the PAC championship
- Voters realize Florida is a good defense, horrible offense and they move down (doubt they lose another game until their bowl - the SEC East is not good)
How do you like those odds?
If we beat OSU, the thing that all will lament is the officiating in unHappy Valley.
November 20th, 2019 at 11:21 AM ^
SEC gets ridiculous credit with the committee. Bama shouldn't be 5 and Georgia is a questionable 4. Without Tua, Bama is not beating half the teams in the second 5.
Michigan has no shot at the top 4 no matter what. A two loss team doesn't deserve to be in the top 4.
Should end up being conference champs unless a 3 loss team backs into a conf. Championship.
November 20th, 2019 at 11:21 AM ^
SEC gets ridiculous credit with the committee. Bama shouldn't be 5 and Georgia is a questionable 4. Without Tua, Bama is not beating half the teams in the second 5.
Michigan has no shot at the top 4 no matter what. A two loss team doesn't deserve to be in the top 4.
Should end up being conference champs unless a 3 loss team backs into a conf. Championship.
November 20th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
You can say that again.