Is (at least part of) the reason for lack of contested throws because the WR/TEs aren't very good at them?
We've all probably thought that the UM offense needs to throw contested balls downfield more, but the more I'm thinking about it, I am wondering if part of the reason is that the WR just are not good at them. I haven't dug through the past UFRs, so if someone has more data on this, I would love to know.
BUT my feelingsball take over this year and last year is that the WR have had opportunities to makes some plays and more often than not, they don't. Even in this past MSU game, Bell got two balls thrown to him up high to make a tough catch, and caught neither of them. Heck the INT against Indiana, there is an opportunity for Bell to position himself and make a contested catch and he didn't. I don't recall Johnson given many opportunities this year, but my feeling last year was that he left a lot of opportunities for tough catches on the field. Heck, we haven't seen the TEs do Buttzone contested catches either. Contrast that to 2019, and while I agree Collins should have been target downfield more, but heck, against MSU he had two TD contested catches alone.
What are y'all's thoughts. I understand that Corum is awesome and teams have been letting UM run by alignment, but from what I can tell, the pass catchers haven't really provided much justification for getting more contested downfield throws. Maybe it's time to see what some of the other WRs can do in that department.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:11 PM ^
I’m going with they don’t need to make contested throws to move the ball and score.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:43 PM ^
This dawned on me when I was chatting about this Michigan team with my dad the other day.
Michigan has a very talented receiver room so there will be a lot of dropbacks where, e.g. CoJo is open enough to make a contested catch (my perception being that he is quite good at making those) but Roman Wilson meanwhile has created big separation.
Then if everyone is moderately well covered, we've got a QB who is a dynamic runner, so what incentive is there to try to make a contested throw?
I really do not think any of this is a problem (if it is, then boy, what a problem to have!)
Moreso it's just a reflection of the fact that there should be diminishing returns on having tons of playmakers... if the QB makes the right reads then an offense never needs more than 1 guy to be open on any given play -- it's a luxury that definitely makes the QB's job easier but doesn't create the exact same amount of value as that very 1st guy getting open.
I think against the very good to elite defenses we will face at the end of the year is when you will see the most payoff for the wealth of offensive talent that Michigan has stockpiled. Until then? "Keep it simple, stupid"
TLDR: we'll see more contested throws as soon as opposing defenses step up and start earning them
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:27 PM ^
I agree....Harbaugh is at his core a conservative old school coach, BUT is willing to change when the game competition dictates it - thus far, the competition has not dictated the need to throw many contested balls...maybe that is wishful thinking, but that is how I am choosing to think.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:35 PM ^
Correct - you don't throw at covered receivers unless you have to do so to succeed or because your best player is a jump ball/contested catch merchant.
November 3rd, 2022 at 4:50 PM ^
I don’t think we’ve seen very many plays where receivers are running wide open down the field. Contrast that with any OSU game. There may be other factors, but the abilities of the WRs has to be one of the biggest reasons.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:17 PM ^
You do have to make contested throws to score touchdowns in the redzone.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:42 PM ^
You will probably need to make contested throws/catches against Ohio State.
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:34 PM ^
Part of the red zone problems are absolutely an unwillingness to throw it up to a guy
November 3rd, 2022 at 5:16 PM ^
But you will need to make those contested throws eventually either vs illinois, ohio state, georgia, tennessee whoever. You cant expect to be leading every game and running the ball comfortably. Why not practice it against the plethra of tomato cans we've played this season. Why wait until were down against a good team away from home with a group of players that are inexperienced with this kind of game at least up to this point this season? I have no complaints so far as we've blown out every opponent outside of maryland so this is not a rant. But i sense my scenario is coming soon so why not practice it in the meaningless blowouts weve had. Can we run a 2 minute drill and throw 3 straight passes to the end zone when we get to the red zone? You cant rely on Corum to run for 10+ yards a carry when your down by 7 with 1 min left in the game. Teams are gonna take away the run game although no one has been able to so far. Will they be able, yes eventually. Can we respond if they do? i have no damn clue
November 3rd, 2022 at 7:18 PM ^
Exactly. Devin Gardner said the exact same thing on MMQB. You have to rep it all year if you expect to be any good at it when the pressure is on.
For what it’s worth, he seems to think it’s a lack of creativity on the coaches’ part for our dearth of passing in the red zone, not an inability on the WRs part. 🤷♂️
November 3rd, 2022 at 9:10 PM ^
I agree with Devin on this one. The play calling in the red zone, certainly against MSU, was rather conservative and unimaginative. Even the little forward toss to Corum that did score a TD was pretty close to being blown up in the backfield.
November 3rd, 2022 at 8:09 PM ^
Completely agree.
Just as discussed in the podcast, UM needs to rep the tough plays - throwing deep against cover 2, contested catches, etc - even when a simpler play will likely net better yards.
The OL and Corum are getting a lot of reps already in game action. The running game should be honed by this point and certainly after a few more games with 30+ plays. It is basically A/A+ readiness for the OSU exam. The intermediate and deep passing game are well behind the running game. Obviously the #1 priority is winning every game and JH knows the process better than any of us, but it would be great to have passing and running at A+ for OSU.
November 3rd, 2022 at 5:19 PM ^
Contested throughs are a sign of desperation.
November 3rd, 2022 at 6:00 PM ^
So many ******* people in the world. So - per comment below, since MSU can’t control their players anger/rage/aggression, we need to soften the environment because ONLY MSU seems to have an issue with their ‘players’ ability to act like human beings. Got it.
November 3rd, 2022 at 7:02 PM ^
It's not contested throws I'm concerned about--it's not testing defenses at all downfield lately, including flat out bad ones like MSU. It's perfectly understandable to run more when you are great at it, but conversely when you are running great, that's precisely when passing should be easier and more successful. At some point, either OSU or playoffs, teams will take Blake away and we will need to be really good at getting the ball to the WR's.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:13 PM ^
We are lacking a big Nico Collins type receiver on this team. That is glaring.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:17 PM ^
That hopefully is Darius Clemons. Hoping next year is a break out for him similar to how Coleman busted out for MSU.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:19 PM ^
If it is him, I would start getting into these next few games.
November 3rd, 2022 at 6:09 PM ^
You mean Coleman in the first half? 7 pts total for Sparty?
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:18 PM ^
We have at least one (Clemens) but he is a freshman so hard to say if he breaks through later this year or in 2023.
I would like Andrel to get a shot too as he had some nice contested catches last year.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:24 PM ^
I can't figure out why Andrel doesn't get more reps over Johnson.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:38 PM ^
Andrel has our only real "go up and get the ball for a td as a big WR" play, and that was against Sparty last year. I won't if anyone keeps stats on fades/jumpballs in the end zone. We have to be dead last in CFB.
November 3rd, 2022 at 7:22 PM ^
And yet we're undefeated. Much closer to 1st than dead last in CFB...
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:11 PM ^
Johnson is a better blocker... and apparently that is more important for our receivers than being a good receiver.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:23 PM ^
I'm shocked that Anthony and Clemons haven't played more this season. I wonder if it's due to their blocking. We need at least 1 big passing game prior to Ohio State
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:57 PM ^
I think the play is Andrel in the red zone for Wilson. And maybe this is happening but Wilson's speed isn't as useful in the short field so Andrel and CJ should be the outside guys in the red zone.
Those two and Bell are good enough jump and catch guys although I don't think we run many 3 WR sets at all. I don't think Bell should be dinged because he didn't come down with the one against MSU. He has serious ups and can high point the ball.
November 3rd, 2022 at 7:04 PM ^
Agree. I don't see why Johnson starts at all. He drops balls and isn't impressive when he catches them
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:02 PM ^
I think I may have found one of the issues with Andrel so far: He has a lot of trouble getting off of the line of scrimmage.
This is a screencap from the first of three rollout passes Michigan ran, all of which were pretty ugly. (If you have watch ESPN access you can watch the play yourself here, it's right at the 1 hour mark of the broadcast). Anthony is the primary and intended receiver. He is supposed to slant in, cut straight downfield, and then break out toward the sideline.
Anthony is completely dominated at the LOS. He can't get separation, and the defender effectively obstructs and redirects him without any obvious holding (unlike the flea flicker when Roman Wilson was blatantly held). It's just Anthony not getting off the line. This delays his route. The way the play is designed JJ wants to throw just before he reaches the numbers on the field, but in this view you can see him pump and pull the ball back because Anthony isn't open yet. When JJ finally does throw, it is as he is falling out of bounds, and the defender has time to recover, and the catch is difficult and incomplete.
Andrel still gets snaps and some targets, but this is a play (admittedly, this is one isolated play, I haven't seen all of his reps or anything) that might suggest why he isn't getting better opportunities. Especially since these two-deep looks Michigan keeps facing are often paired with press coverage.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:39 PM ^
Andrel is that guy. Why on earth he doesn’t get opportunities is mind boggling. Starters should be Roman Ronnie and andrel. CJ has had 4 years and hasn’t been that good
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:45 PM ^
Agree, I don't see CJ as someone who should have a position on lock down. He makes enough mistakes to give someone else more opportunities. Maybe it would also help CJ focus more when he's in the game so balls don't end up on the ground.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:46 PM ^
The only conjecture I have is that he is not that good at blocking like others are. Even last year, he faded after that MSU game. Otherwise, not sure why he is not that involved.
November 3rd, 2022 at 4:24 PM ^
Good route trees and blocking can be complicated. If you’re not doing them well at Michigan you’re not playing as much.
November 3rd, 2022 at 7:27 PM ^
AC, Braylon or Desmond would suffice
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:18 PM ^
Not sure if you’re serious. You think Harbaugh at any time would direct his QB to throw a jump ball type of pass? He HATES turnovers.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:00 PM ^
Yes, very serious. Harbaugh has never been a YOLO type of offensive guy...but they actually have thrown contested catches downfield in the past. Collins and Butt definitely have been beneficiaries of that for sure. But there has been a much lower rate even this year I think that previous years.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:21 PM ^
This is where we miss Xavier Worthy, who left UM for unknown (friend Giles Jackson left?) reasons to go to Texas where he is a superstar but a combined 10-10, when he could be 20-2 and in the running for a B1G and possibly NC title.
I love that we resemble the best of Stanford O that JH had, but with even better players.
Maybe we need to do what USC and Riley did to Pitt and steal a superstar WR like Jordan Addison.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:34 PM ^
Regarding Xavier Worthy, you answered your own question. Anyone viewing football as their career would rather be a superstar on a high profile 10-10 team than a perplexing afterthought on a 20-2 team. I assume Worthy will get drafted high and be paid. Which is much better than endless message board speculation about why Xavier Worthy isn't getting thrown the ball at Michigan regardless of how much they win.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:57 PM ^
Xavier Worthy is awesome, but I didn't think he is exactly known as a jumpball maven, is he? Dude is 6'1" and 160 lbs.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:01 PM ^
Don't have to be a huge dude to make contested catches. Heck Jayden Reed at MSU is just as good as Coleman at this and he's like 5 inches shorter.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:47 PM ^
I heard Sam say that Xavier Worthy wouldn't belong on this team due to culture, for whatever reason. He didn't expound upon his statement, but you can tell with Sam when he is saying something but there is a lot of history or Intel behind what he is saying, versus when he goes out of his way to explain that he is purely speculating. This was the prior, not the later.
If Sam is reading, or more likely if CR does, I am paraphrasing and probably quite far off from getting the hidden meaning right here.
November 3rd, 2022 at 3:04 PM ^
I thought he didn't come here because Gattis slept with his mom and then didn't call her back.
November 3rd, 2022 at 9:41 PM ^
That isn't normally an effective recruiting strategy?
November 4th, 2022 at 4:48 PM ^
Pisses me off when I see he had 160 yards in a loss every week. To leave us for Sarkisian? Cmon man.
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:21 PM ^
I think Bell and Johnson, along with Anthony and Schoonmaker, can make contested catches all day. One poor game from Ronnie last week doesn't erase his career. I also think Wilson can make some tough catches. More to the point, Jim Harbaugh prioritizes ball safety above everything else. He cannot allow himself to allow throws to well covered pass catchers, because why? There are others more open, and/or the running game will just bulldoze you. This has been Harbaugh's MO for decades. And if Nico Collins didn't make you realize it, well... Then you never will.
The thing we do want, though, is more downfield throws so we can have an offense that people will compare to OSU. One that scores a crapload of points every week and makes the playoff committee unzip it's collective pants...
Problem with that, though, is that Michigan is not set up functionally for that. We don't have that kind of a passing attack. Much like OSU doesn't have the type of rushing attack that can bulldoze opponents without its potent downfield passing game doing the heavy lifting.
Michigan simply won't throw the ball deep when the opponent leave 7 or less in the box. No reason to - not enough run defenders, and too many pass defenders for the amount of guys out on routes. When the day comes that there are 8 in the box consistently to stop the bulldozer, I think we'll see the return of a competent downfield passing game. Competent - not devastating. It's just the way the Harbaughffense rolls...
November 3rd, 2022 at 1:35 PM ^
Everything you said makes sense until you get goal to go offense. That's where I think a big receiver that can go up and get a safe pass would be very useful without abandoning our running identity.
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:22 PM ^
I can't 'splain the redzone deal and I don't think anyone can! Other than to agree with Brian's take on the Sunday pod - that it's very basic vanilla flavoring because it can be right now. We did see the same thing last year - and it got better later, so there's precedence.
Otherwise, yeah, I agree - it would be really nice to have Nico in the RZ. Except that he wasn't really used there, either! I got nothing, man... LOL!
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:49 PM ^
Has harbaugh really ever had a wonderful goal line offense, apart from a few notable FBs? Possibly Jake Butt? It seems like his preferred way to red zone went extinct and he has yet to find new meat for his palate. I am quite terrible at metaphor-ing.
It seems our best approach is a hefty serving of Corum with some JJ legs. Is it dinner time yet?
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:10 PM ^
I dunno how true that is. Parkinggod's 2016 MSU highlights came up on my feed the other day. Amara Darboh caught just about everything thrown to him by Speight. Speight's numbers? 16/25 for 244 yards, 1 INT [JJ was 15/25, 167 yards, 1 TD]. Darboh had 8 receptions for 165 yards. Jake Butt and Jehu Chesson had a few catches each.
I'd argue that Darboh/Chesson/Butt are better receivers than Bell/Wilson/Schoon but JJ has to be better than Wilton Speight right? Woof.
Go to 2015 Penn State (I picked this because I went to the game). Jake Rudock was 25 for 38(!), 256 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT. The receiver trio above all had 65+ yards each.
So Harbaugh has not *always* had a must-run team. All we heard about this team before the season is that the receiving room is one of the best ever for the team and JJ McCarthy could be a Heisman candidate. Is it wrong for fans to want at minimum the passing success that they've seen from previous Harbaugh Michigan teams?
November 3rd, 2022 at 2:27 PM ^
Fair points, but those earlier teams simply could not run the ball as well as this team can. The run game wasn't as diverse or complicated, nor were the RB's as good. I agree with you, though - I also want to see a great pass game paired with Corum and Edwards, and we currently don't have that.